Tuesday 20 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 20, 2012 Trend News

After an American session had shown a strong recovery in equities and currencies leading rival the dollar, the decision of Moody's to cut France's debt rating had impact immediately on the euro, and to a lesser extent on other currencies.

However, this impact seems to be forgotten in the European session on Tuesday. The single currency strengthened slowly but surely, and its next target is 1.2835, which might slow down before continuing its upward trend.

The British pound sterling offers a similar outlook, but its short-term uptrend seems to be firmer than the euro.

Meanwhile, the yen rallied against the dollar and the currency rose against most of its 16 major counterparts as Bank of Japan refrained from adding to stimulus measures. Shinzo Abe, favored to displace prime minister of Japan at the election, has supported unlimited easing.

In Switzerland, a trade balance with a surplus expected to be over 2.36 bln francs is 2.82bln francs.

The data that should be taken into consideration during the American session conserves housing starts in U.S. It unexpectedly climbed to a four-year high, indicating further improvement in U.S. residential construction. Start rose 3.6% to 894K annual rate. It is the fastest since July 2008.


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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook - For November 20, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

Yesterday the EUR/USD pair had a slightly bullish session, but the growth was stopped as there is the level of the 200 day moving average (blue) at 1.2810 periods. It crosses above the downtrend line. It is likely that the euro continue rising to the level of 1.2835. This level will give us the opportunity to sell the pair, because of the continuous downward pressure. On the other hand, if the pair manages to break the downtrend line, we can buy this pair again. But if the break is very weak, we should only consider it as a widening of the bearish channel.


At fundamental level, France lost its AAA credit rating from Moody's at the end of the day. It increases the bearish outlook, which could affect the euro in the following weeks.


So you can take your trading decision according to the following chart .



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AUD/USD - GAP 1.0325 - For November 20, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

Yesterday the Australian dollar closed trading session at 1.0411. On the other hand, earlier this week the Aussie left a GAP, which is likely to return the pair to cover this gap in the coming hours and began a downward sequence. Given that we have a reversal pattern, we must wait until the level of 1.0325, where the pair has a dynamic support, because it is above EMA 200. At this level we can buy with targets to the level of 1.0532.


At fundamental level this pair has been showing a movement that does not conform to major currencies because of the fundamental data of Australia. Therefore, if you operate with the currency you have to know all the relevant data pertaining to it.



If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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Silver Just Shy Of Hitting First Resistance At 33.30/40. Hold Long Positions Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Silver is on its way towards the Wave 3 rally and minimum expectation is 34.30/40 levels. Furthermore, the structure depicts an inverse head and shoulder setup where the right shoulder has been carved at 32.00 level. Ideally, prices should remain well above the 32.00 mark, and all intraday dips should be well capped above that support level. Resistance begins from 33.30/40 levels and spreads through 34.40/40 and 35.00 respectively. The bulls are poised to take out resistances in coming sessions, and hence it is recommended to keep buying on intraday dips. Looking higher from here.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, stop at 31.50 (stop will be revised soon), and target open.


Good Luck!


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Gold Rally To Gain Momentum, 1,722/25 Region Will Be Supported For Dips Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


As depicted above, prices seems to have resumed wave 3 rally after carving out a higher low at 1,704/05 levels recently. Please also note that above structure is forming and inverse head and shoulder pattern as well. The right shoulder seems to have been carved out at 1,705 level and minimum extension level is at 1,780. Support should be strong at 1,705 level, and any intraday dip should remain well capped above that. Immediate resistance is at 1,750/60 levels, which should be taken off soon. It is recommended to buy on intraday dips. Looking higher from here.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on long positions taken earlier, stop at 1,690.00 (stop will be revised soon), and target open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Raises Past 104.00 Level. Remain Long For Now Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


As depicted above, the single currency pair rallied after testing the backside of the sloping trendline resistance and turned support near 103.00 region. It is quite clear that prices should remain above this immediate support of 103.00 and get past 104.50/60 levels in coming sessions. Therefore, it is recommended to keep trading strategy to buying on intraday dips. After 103.00 the next level of support is at 102.00 level. Resistance is placed at 104.30, followed by 104.50/60 levels. Bulls should comfortably get past resistance levels in coming sessions. Looking higher.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, buy further on dips, stop at 102,80, and target open.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Meets Resistance at 1.5 Levels and Pulls back. Remain Short Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Yesterday the single currency pair rallied through resistance at 1.5 level before reversing. As it was indicated, 1.5 level was ideal to enter short positions again; traders can build short positions at the moment (1.4980) as well. A break below 1.4940 again, will accelerate downside straight towards the intermediary support region of 1.4800 level. Major support still remains at 1.4700, but bears will break that level in the coming sessions. Resistance begins from 1.5050 region and spreads across 1.5150, 1.5250/60, and1.5400. Looking lower from here.


Trading Recommendations:


Remain short, stop at 1.5150/60 (we shall revise it later), and target at 1.4600.


Good Luck!


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