Friday 29 November 2013

USD/CAD H1 Analysis for November 29, 2013 Trend News

General Overview for 29/11/2013 10:00 CET


The price has broken above the Supply Breakthrough Zone and stays close to the last swing high but wave progression is far from impulsive so far.


The overall wave progression has been finished in wave C green according to main count BUT there is a possibility that the last wave v will be extended. If price will not break below golden trend line then traders might assume one more high might be made. The alternate count for this scenario has been indicated on H4 chart.


Support/Resistance:


1.0600 - Swing High | WR1 |


1.0598 - Intraday Resistance


1.0573 - 1.0582 - SUPPORT ZONE


1.0560 - Intraday Support


1.0514 - 1.0522 - DEMANZD ZONE


1.0506 - Weekly Pivot


Trading Recommendations:


Main count H1 chart scenario: As long as Intraday Resistance is not broken, short positions should be in play here with SL above 1.0601 and TP1 @ 1.0560 and TP2 @ 1.0522.


Alternate count H4 chart scenario: If Intraday Resistance is broken, then BUY STOP orders from 1.0605 should be in play with SL below 1.0570 and TP1 @ 1.0628 and TP2 @ 1.0690.



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#USDX Analysis for November 29, 2013 Trend News

Nothing has changed to Dollar index. Trend remains down and bulls are weak for now. There is no sign of a possible trend reversal but prices continue trading above critical support levels. Breaking below 80,50-45 then will push prices towards its next important support at 80,15.



The big sideways move has reached its lower boundaries and unless we see soon a trend reversal by breaking above 80,80, we should expect prices to try to reach the lower boundaries of the downward sloping blue channel as shown above. This could push prices towards 80,15.



The daily chart shows nothing different. If prices break below 80,50 they will not only break the channel boundaries but also put pressure on the 34 day MA. This will worsen the technical view of the Dollar index. Prices will need to close on a daily level above 81 in order to confirm an upward trend reversal. For now we remain neutral waiting for a signal to be given.


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Gold analysis for November 29, 2013 Trend News

As mentioned yesterday, there is increased probability that prices will move towards 1260$ again and maybe higher towards 1290$. The upward move from 1226 is impulsive and the decline from 1258 to 1233 is corrective. We have a move of 5 waves up and 3 waves down. Thus we should at least expect another 5 waves up that will most probably push prices towards 1260 and maybe higher.



Prices have broken out of the downward sloping red trend line resistance and will be testing the neckline resistance level again at 1260$. Prices are trying to form a new bullish pattern from 1333 with smaller degree higher highs and higher lows at 1239$. We believe this is the start of a new upward move that will break above previous high at 1258$.



Support is found at 1239 and resistance is at 1260$. Prices tend to move upwards with 1260-90 as possible target. As shown in the chart above, prices have broken out of the downward sloping channel and we should see an upward bounce. This could push prices towards 1300$ before continuing with its larger head and shoulders pattern that could take prices to 1140$. So for now as long as we trade above 1240 we remain short term bullish.


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Thursday 28 November 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for November 29, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance Levels:


R3: 1.6970


R2: 1.6890


R1: 1.6843


Current Spot: 1.6799


S1: 1.6749


S2: 1.6710


S3: 1.6637


Technical Summary:


With the clear break above 1.6733, the green wave v is extending and the next target for green wave v is at 1.6970, where green wave v is 100% of the distance traveled from the bottom of green wave i to the top of green wave iii. As we also have broken clearly out of the base-channel, we should expect only small or even sub-normal corrections as wave iii extends higher.


Short-term we should expect support at 1.6749 will protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 1.6970. A break below 1.6749 or more importantly a break below 1.6710 will call for a deeper correction towards 1.6625.


Trading Recommendation:


As we have missed two buying opportunities and we have broken clearly out of the base-channel, we will wait no longer. We will buy EUR here at 1.6799 with a stop at 1.6590.


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Gold analysis for November 28, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices have risen in 5 waves from the 1,226 lows to 1,258. The decline is in 3 waves. The bigger move from 1,360, as we mentioned in previous analysis, is a complete 5 wave pattern. So now it is time for a bigger upward corrective move.



So the gold prices are expected to move upwards to complete the third part of the upward correction. The first part was 1,226-1,258 and the second part was from 1,258 to 1,233. The next move should be an upward impulsive wave towards 1,260-90. Confirmation for this will come once the prices break above 1,255-58.



If, however, the prices don't break the resistance at 1,256-58, but fall lower towards new lows, we will have to change our wave count. For now, the bulls should use 1,226 as stop and look for a move towards 1,260-90. Bears should stay clear for now as there is an increased chance that the prices will move towards the broken neckline to back test it. The daily chart above shows that prices are trading above the support levels at 1,200-1,220 and this could produce a counter trend bounce towards 1,260-1,300.


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USD/CAD H1 Analysis for November 28, 2013 Trend News

General Overview for 28/11/2013 10:15 CET


Long-time anticipated last wave to the upside is done and fifth wave sequence has finished.


Some kind of the correction to the downside is expected now UNLESS wave 5 gets extended.


The Key Zone to the downside is now Supply Breakthrough Zone and this area must be broken to continiue the downside move.


Next dynamic support is uprising golden trend line - if broken, then old DEMAND zone is in view.


Support/Resistance:


1.0600 - WR1


1.0589 - Intraday Resistance


1.0572 - 1.0582 - Supply Breakthrough Zone


1.0559 - Intraday Support


1.0514 - 1.0522 - DEMAND ZONE


Trading Recommendations:


In anticipation of the downside correction short side of the market should be in play with entry @ 1.05800 and SL above 1.6000 and potential TP1 @ 1.0559 and TP2 @ 1.0522.



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GBP/USD pushed through 1.63 levels. Hold on short positions Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair might have pushed through 1.6300 levels and triggered stops placed there. Still the pair is trading below the Jan 2013 high of 1.6380 levels. A top and reversal here remains of grave possibility and hence recommendations are to initiate fresh short positions at current levels (1.6300) keeping risk at 1.6425 levels. Furthermore a possible head and shoulder could also form if prices confirm top and reversal at current levels. Resistance is at 1.6380, while support is at 1.6150 followed by 1.6050 and lower.


Trade Recommendations:


Initiate fresh short positions now (1.6300), stop at 1.6425, target open.


Good Luck !


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USD/CHF rally to gather pace. 0.9020/30 is major support Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Inverted head and shoulder reversal seems to be taking shape at the moment. Since last several trading sessions, the right shoulder has been seen to be carved out and strong support is at 0.9020/30 range. It is recommended to hold long positions for now and also look to buy intraday dips towards 0.9020/30 levels. Immediate fibonacci support is 0.9030 followed by 0.9010 and 0.8900; while resistance is at 0.9200 followed by 0.9250 and 0.9450, respectively. The structure reveals that bottom formation should complete around 0.9030 levels for the bulls to continue rallying further towards a 0.9500 target.


Trade Recommendations:


Remain long, look to buy on dips as well, stop at 0.8950, target 0.95


Good Luck !


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USD/JPY prints fresh highs. Remain long as 103/104 remain in sight Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The pair is rising towards 103.30 and 104.50 levels as depicted on daily chart view here. As seen here, prices broke out consolidation cone pattern last week, back tested at 99.60/80 levels and is now towards fresh highs. It is recommended to remain long and reduce risk at break even levels. Immediate short term support is at 101.00 followed by 99.60 and lower; while resistance is seen at 102.50/60 and 103.60/70, respectively. Further higher extensions are 106.00 and up to 110.00 levels. Look to hold long positions for now.


Trade Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions, stop at break even, target open.


Good Luck !


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EUR/USD pulls back from 1.3620/30 levels. Remain short Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair topped and reversed yesterday just shy of 1.3650 levels, which is the fibonacci 0.618 resistance level of the fall from sub 1.38 to 1.33 recently. Prices may want to just test 1.3650 before reversing sharply, and hence it is recommended to stay short on positions taken earlier and also look to sell intraday rallies as well. Resistance is at 1.3650 followed by 1.3710 and 1.38; while support is at 1.35 followed by 1.34 and 1.33, respectively. The entire structure reveals that a potential right shoulder is in the making between 1.3600/50; for a head and shoulder reversal.


Trade Recommendations:


Remain short, look to sell further rallies, stop at 1.38, target at 1.29.


Good Luck !


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Silver hangs around 19.50 levels for now. Remain flat Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The metal has paused the recent fall at the fibonacci 0.786 support levels around 19.50 as depicted here. Still the conviction to commit a trade is missing due to lack of trade signal pattern. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now. Immediate support is at 19.00 levels followed by sub 18.00 levels; while resistance is at 20.50/60, 22.00 (trendline) followed by 23.00, respectively. A break higher of at least 21.00 levels would be required to confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place and the metal is set for higher highs. On the flip side, a break of 19.00 levels would see fresh lows being printed before the trend reverses.


Trade Recommendations:


Flat for now


Good Luck !


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Gold may print fresh lows below 1180.00 before rallying further Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Gold is trading close to the fibonacci 0.786 region of the entire rally from 1180 to 1440 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch for a meaningful bullish signal on a daily chart before committing on the long side. Immediate support is the 1210.00 level, followed by 1180.00; while resistance begins from 1275/80 levels, followed by 1320/25, 1350 and higher. The metal needs to break at least 1275/80 levels from here to confirm buying on dips. On the other side, a break below 1210.00 levels would see further downside towards 1180.00 and 1150.00, respectively. Looking for a clear signal indication for now.


Trade Recommendations:


Flat for now.


Good Luck !


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EUR/JPY bull run continues. 139.00 and 142.00 within reach Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair has raised past 138.00 levels and approaching the prescribed targets of 139.00 and 142.00 respectively. It is recommended to buy intraday dips. Immediate support is at 134/135.00 levels on daily chart view, followed by 131.00 and lower; while resistance is at 139.00 and 142.00 respectively. A weekly chart resistance is just around 142/143 levels and the bulls would surely want to target that before a meaningful pullback could be underway. Looking to buy intraday dips from here on. This could possibly be the final rally before a huge correction. 142.00 levels would be watched closely.


Trade Recommendations:


Buy intraday dips. Target 139.00 and 142.00.


Good Luck !


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GBP/CHF should hit 1.49 levels any time soon Trend News




Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair has got past 1.48 levels as it was discussed earlier this week. Still the upward momentum remains and soon 1.49 levels should be reached. It is recommended to hold long positions taken earlier for now and look to book profits at 1.49. The overall structure remains bearish and the pair is nearing the end of its multi month counter trend, which began from 1.4 levels. Immediate support is just below 1.47 followed by 1.4550, 1.44 and lower; while resistance is fixed at 1.5 levels. We shall again review situation at 1.49 levels before turning short.


Trade Recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 1.47, target 1.49.


Good Luck !


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Wednesday 27 November 2013

#USDX Analysis for November 27, 2013 Trend News

The dollar index continued to slide lower within a corrective pattern yesterday. Prices are testing important support levels both in the short and longer term. As shown in the first chart below, the decline from 81,50 is far from impulsive. This means that this counter move to the upward impulsive wave from 79 is just a correction and an uptrend should resume once over.



Prices are trading withing the blue downward sloping channel. Breaking above it would be a first bullish sign. This will happen if wee see the index above the MA and the upper channel boundaries at 80,95. Support is found at 80,50 and it will not be good for bulls if this support breaks and prices close below it. However, on intraday scale, we could allow for a dip below that level, only to wait a pull back up above that support.



On the daily chart the prices are testing the lower boundaries of the triangle. The MA support is not reached yet. The triangle is now being tested and, as we noted yesterday, we should take positions favoring the levels we are near. So now that we are near support, we should go long with that support as stop loss. So long at 80,59 with 80,45 stop is a fair trade with a good risk reward ratio. Our target to sell would be the upper triangle boundaries.


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Tuesday 26 November 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 27, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance Levels:


R3: 138.23


R2: 138.12


R1: 138.03


Current Spot: 137.92


S1: 137.60


S2: 137.10


S3: 136.60


Technical Summary:


As we expected, important support at 137.02 protected the downside for a new high at 138.03. The wave structure of this last rally from 137.10 does not look complete yet, therefore we expect support at 137.60 to protect the downside for one last marginal new high just above 138.03 likely in the 138.12 - 138.23 area before the final top of wave v of 5 is in place and a major correction towards at least 124.94 will take place. A break above the resistance at 138.30 will question our count for the ending diagonal, as a break above 138.30 will make wave iii the shortest wave which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle.


Trading Recommendation:


Move your stop + revers on long EUR positions higher to 137.55. Keep your take profit + revers at 138.20.


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for November 26, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices bounced upwards yesterday as we expected. We warned yesterday that we could soon see an upward price bounce as the downward move seems completed. In the following daily chart you can see our elliott wave count for the decline from 1,360 which is a previous important high. The larger trend remains downward, but in the short-term we believe it is time to make a correction relative to the last big downward move from 1,360.



Prices are bouncing upwards and we can anticipate this upward move to reach the broken neckline and the previous support at 1,250-60. The most probable thing is the end of this upward correction at the previous 4th wave near 1,290.



The short-term chart as shown above, shows how prices have reached both the 34 candle MA and the downward sloping red trend line resistance. Breaking above that resistance level at 1,256 will confirm that the downward move is over and the we are now correcting the decline from 1,360. Concluding, we remain neutral in order for the upward bounce to unfold and provide us with more data that will help us to decide what trading to do next.


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Monday 25 November 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 26, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6498


R2: 1.6457


R3: 1.6412


Current Spot: 1.6382


S1: 1.6341


S2: 1.6298


S1: 1.6259


Technical summary:


The correction from 1.6636 has become deeper than we expected and that opens up the case of our alternative count (see the chart below). We still prefer the bullish count we presented yesterday, but the break below support at 1.6458 has opened up for a deeper correction towards 1.6341, which will ideally protect the downside for a break above 1.6457 confirming a new rally towards 1.6636 and beyond. Under our preferred count, we can under no circumstances allow a break below support at 1.6259. A break below 1.6259 will cause an overlap between wave i and wave iv, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle and that will cause us to shift towards our alternative count below.


If the alternative count becomes our preferred count this count will call for a continuation lower towards 1.5831 in wave c of Y.


Trading recommendation:


The stop at 1.6445 was hit for a loss. We are looking for a new buying opportunity at 1.6350 with a stop at 1.6255.



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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 26, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 138.30


R2: 137.99


R1: 137.58


Current Spot: 137.33


S1: 137.02


S2: 136.60


S3: 136.02


Technical summary:


After a high at 137.99 touched yesterday, we have seen a correction towards the important support at 137.02. As long as this support protects the downside, we will be looking for one last rally to a new high just above 137.99, but not beyond 138.30. As a break above 138.30 will make wave iii the shortest wave and that is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. That means from just above 137.99 or upon a break below 137.02, we will be looking for a major correction towards at least 124.74.


Trading recommendation:


Keep your stop+reverse on long EUR-positions at 137.02 and your take profit + reverse at 138.20. Place stop at 138.35


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GBPUSD reverses from resistance at 1.6200. Hold on short positions Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair was consolidating between 1.59 and 1.62 broadly as discussed last week. As expected the pair run into the resistance area at 1.62 levels and reversed. This possibly should be the break down leg below the 1.59 support. Minimum implications are towards 1.57 levels and possibly 1.54 as well. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further at current levels. Resistance is at 1.6250 now and support is at 1.59, followed by 1.54, respectively. Look to remain short and also sell during intraday rallies from here on. A break down below 1.59 should see accelerated fall.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop is at 1.63, target is at 1.57.


Good luck!


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USDCHF bottom in place. Hold on long positions. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency broke out of the falling trendline resistance and back tested it, which is support now. A bullish reversal remains grave possibility from here on and 0.9050 region should hold well in the coming sessions. As depicted here, the 0.618 fibonacci support is at 0.9020/30, which should be the maximum downside if prices reach there. It is recommended to remain long and also look to add further at the current levels (0.9100). As seen here, support is at the 0.89 levels now and resistance is at 0.9250 (intermediary) and 0.9450 levels respectively. The structure reveals at least a 3 wave rally towards 0.94/95 from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop is at 0.89, target is open.


Good luck!


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USDJPY breaks consolidation. 99.60 is immediate support. Remain long Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair has clearly broken the cone consolidation, which was discussed last week. Also, prices have exceeded the resistance at the 101.50 levels; it is recommended to remain long on positions taken earlier and also look to add further on dips from here on. Immediate support is the 99.60 region, followed by 98.00, 97.00 and 96.00; while the major resistance is above 103.00 respectively. The structure reveals that next upside extension should be way above the 103.00 levels, possibly towards 110.00 also. Simple trading strategy should be buy-on-dips from now on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below 99.60, target is open.


Good luck!


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EURUSD resistance at 1.36. Remain short Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair produced an engulfing bearish candle last week as expected. Immediate resistance is 1.36, followed by 1.38. It is recommended to remain short on positions initiated between 1.35 and 1.36, as recommended last week and also add further at the current levels. Intermediary support is at 1.33, followed by 1.31 and lower. The entire structure reveals at least a 3 wave correction towards the 1.29 levels, if not lower. Till the time prices remain below 1.36 and subsequently below 1.38, look lower and selling rallies should remain the trading strategy.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, stop above 1.36, target is at 1.29.


Good luck!


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#USDX analysis for November 25, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index retraced 76,4% of the previous 5 wave upward move from 80.50. Prices made a downward correction and we should expect soon an upward reversal. The short-term pattern favors the bulls as after the 5 waves up and their downward correction, we should anticipate a new upward 5 wave move towards 81.50 at least.



Short-term resistance is found at 81.15 and short-term support is found at 80.65. The decline is currently in a 3 wave form and this supports our short-term bullish view. Bulls however will need to break above 81.15 to confirm our view in an impulsive pattern.



The daily chart shows how the current sideways consolidation between 81 and 80.50 is near its end. The triangle correction will soon end and prices are expected to start a new move. Breaking below 80.50 could push prices towards 80.15. Breaking above 81.15 could push prices towards the recent highs at 81.50. Breaking above those highs we should expect a move towards 83.


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Gold analysis for November 25, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices continue to move lower in an impulsive pattern, and we believe that it could very well reach our second target of 1,200. Prices continue to be in a downward trend and below the downward sloping trend line as shown in the 4-hour chart below. Although the trend is downward, we could see another bounce towards 1,245 as prices have completed a very short-term 5 wave formation from 1,300. A bounce could push prices towards 1,240-50 before resuming lower towards 1,180.



The trend remains downward and short-term resistance is found at 1,260 and at 1,245. Short-term support is found at 1,229 and at 1,200. We expect the longer-term trend to remain downward. Bulls will need to break above 1,260 in order to have a chance of seeing the gold prices near 1,300 again.



The daily chart is unfolding as expected. The broken neckline brings in more weakness and we are going to test previous lows at 1,180 with 1,140 as the Head-and-Shoulders pattern target. In the daily time frame we remain bearish looking for new lows below 1,180.


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Silver triggers stops At 20.00 levels. Flat for now Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The metal has stopped us out at the 20.00 levels, on long positions taken earlier. Currently, at the fibonacci 0.786 support level, it is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for a reaction here. Initial support is at 19.00, followed by sub 18.00 levels; a sustained break of the19.50 levels, it would be further bearish towards 19.00 and 18.00 respectively. Immediate resistance is at 22.00; followed by 23.00, 25.00 as stronger ones. On the flip side, a bullish bounce now, it would still warrant to initiate long positions against the 18.00 levels. We would wait for a possible reaction in the daily chart view before committing further on long side.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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Gold triggers stops at 1,250 levels. Flat for now Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The metal triggered stop (at 1,250.00) on long positions taken earlier. At the moment, the metal is at 0.786 retracement level of the entire rally between 1,180.00 and 1,440.00; around 1,234.00 region. It is recommended to remain flat for now and await a reaction here. A break of 1,230.00 levels would prove to be further bearish for the counter, possibly towards 1,210.00 and 1,180.00 levels; which are support levels for now. Resistance is seen at 1,280.00, followed by a strong level at 1,370.00 respectively. On the other hand, a bullish reversal in daily chart view here would warrant buying on dips from there on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!


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EURJPY continues to print higher highs. Flat for now Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair stopped us out at the 135.80/136.00 levels on short positions initiated last week. At the moment, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows is continuing and the uptrend is very much intact, keeping bulls in control. The fibonacci extensions are pointing at the 142.00 levels as shown here, and recommendations are to buy on intraday dips. Immediate support is at 136.00, followed by 134.00 and lower; while resistance is around 139.00 and 142.00, respectively (fibonacci extensions). Intraday pullbacks towards 136.00 should be used for buying now; with an upside target of 139.00 and 142.00 respectively. Weekly chart suggests that 139.00 is very much on cards since the bulls want to target the past resistance around that region now.


Trading recommendations:


Buy on dips.


Good luck!


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GBPCHF is consolidating between 1.46 and 1.48. Hold on to longs Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair is seen consolidating between 1.46-1.48 in a rising wedge format. Such consolidation patterns intend to break out north normally. It is recommended to hold on to remaining long positions for now, with an upside target around the 1.49 levels. Immediate support is seen between 1.4650 and 1.47, followed by 1.4560, 1.4380 and lower; while resistance is fixed at the 1.5 levels, respectively. The overall structure remains bearish, and the current rally from the 1.4 levels seems to be the retracement of the down leg between 1.54 and 1.4. Please note that the 1.49 level is the fibonacci 0.618 retracement and a bearish reaction is expected there.


Trading recommendations:


Hold long positions for now. Book profits at 1.49 and initiate fresh short positions.


Good luck!


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Sunday 24 November 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 25, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 138.76


R2: 138.30


R1: 138.01


Current Spot: 137.76


S1: 137.33


S2: 137.02


S3: 136.60


Technical summary:


We should be in the very last part of the ending diagonal. The maximum for this final wave v will be in the 138.21-138.31 range depending on where the high of wave iii is placed. If we does see a break above 138.31, then the ending diagonal can not be the correct count as wave iii can never be the shortest wave and that would be the case here, if we does break above 138.31. However, for now we maintain the view that an ending diagonal is developing and should be close to its maximum. To confirm that wave v is in place, we need a break below 137.02 and more importantly a break below 136.02, which will confirm that wave v is in place for a decline towards at least 124.96.


Trading recommendation:


If you are long in EUR, lift your stop to 137.02. Take profit on any long position and sell EUR at 138.20 with a close stop at 138.35.


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Friday 22 November 2013

Gold analysis for November 22, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices reached 1,237 near our first target area around 1,230, which we mentioned in yesterday's analysis. Prices are staging a small upward bounce that we believe will be short-lived and downward pressures will resume. Short and long term trend remains downward, pointing towards testing the 1,180 lows, and very possibly we will see new lows towards 1,140.



The head-and-shoulders neckline is clearly broken and we believe that a back test could happen today. The back test area is at 1,250-55 and the upward correction could see this level. Short-term support is found at 1,235 and then at 1,210-1,200. Short-term resistance is found at 1,248-1,255-1,266. The trend is downward and any upward bounce is expected to be met with selling pressures.



The downward move from 1,360 remains inside the downward sloping channel, and we can expect prices to try and test the upper boundaries of that channel near 1,255-60. Gold prices are expected to continue lower even if the upward bounce does not reach 1,255-60. This is very important resistance area that if broken could change our short-term view for gold. Concluding we remain short biased. Selling gold near 1,255-60 is preferred with new lows as a target. Breaking out of the downward sloping channel will bring us close to our short positions.


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Thursday 21 November 2013

#USDX analysis for November 21, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index was trading inside the downward sloping channel. We labeled this decline as corrective. We also mentioned that prices were trading inside the support zone. We also mentioned that an upward move should soon be expected. This is what happened yesterday. Short-term trend has reversed upwards.



The downward sloping trend channel was broken upwards. Prices are moving upwards in an impulsive pattern and are now going to test the previous highs at 81.50. Breaking above that level will re-energise the bullish momentum with 82-83 as a target. The short-term support levels to watch are 81.05 and 80.50.



Prices in the daily chart have now reached the next resistance level at 81.30-81.50, where the previous highs and the 100-day MA are found. Breaking above the MA will be an initial bullish signal for the longer-term trend that has changed to upward after the low at 79. An important support level in the daily chart is the 80.45 level. Breaking that level will push prices towards 80.15 and probably to 79.50.


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#USDX analysis for November 21, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index was trading inside the downward sloping channel. We labeled this decline as corrective. We also mentioned that prices were trading inside the support zone. We also mentioned that an upward move should soon be expected. This is what happened yesterday. Short-term trend has reversed upwards.



The downward sloping trend channel was broken upwards. Prices are moving upwards in an impulsive pattern and are now going to test the previous highs at 81.50. Breaking above that level will re-energise the bullish momentum with 82-83 as a target. The short-term support levels to watch are 81.05 and 80.50.



Prices in the daily chart have now reached the next resistance level at 81.30-81.50, where the previous highs and the 100-day MA are found. Breaking above the MA will be an initial bullish signal for the longer-term trend that has changed to upward after the low at 79. An important support level in the daily chart is the 80.45 level. Breaking that level will push prices towards 80.15 and probably to 79.50.


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Gold analysis for November 21, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices have broken downwards and are now trading near 1,245. The trend was downward and our view remained bearish from 1,279 once the support trend line was broken. Prices never really managed to break above the resistance trendline and support levels started to fail one after the other. The daily chart as shown below shows clearly that the important support levels were broken. We remain short biased as we believe that prices will continue lower towards 1,230 at least.



The Head-and-shoulders target is at 1,140 with a chance to see 1,080. We remain bearish and we see as important resistance level now the 1,280-95 price range. The support levels were broken as expected since the upward move was labeled as corrective after we analysed the form and pattern of the rise from 1,260 to 1,294.



The trend remains downward, as long as prices trade below the short-term downward sloping red trend line. This could change if prices manage to break above 1,270. This is its short-term resistance. Short-term support is found at 1,230 and then at 1,200. We could see an upward bounce from these levels, so it could be a profit taking opportunity to close short positions at these levels. The bigger trend remains downward, so any upward bounce should be met with sellling.


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USD/CAD H1 analysis for November 21, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 21/11/2013 08:00 CET


After yesterday's invalidation of an immediate bullish impulsive trend resumption, there is still a possibility for a further impulsive trend development however.


In this count wave progression might be impulsive as long as the 1.0427 level holds and that progression is way more dynamic that the previous one.


The first resistance level would be Intraday Resistance zone at 1.0478. If this level is broken then further upside continuation is anticipated, up to the level of 1.0506 and more ( SUPPLY ZONE).


Support/Resistance:


1.0392 - WS1


1.0404 - DEMAND ZONE


1.0413 - Swing Low


1.0428 - Invalidation Line


1.0435 - Intraday Support


1.0458 - Weekly Pivot


1.0478 - 1.0483 - Technical Resistance Zone | DEMAND BREAKTHROUGH ZONE |


1.0412 - WR1


1.0506 - 1.0524 - SUPPLY ZONE


Trading recommendations:


In anticipation of more impulsive wave development to the upside 1.0478 -1.0483 zone should be bought IF there is 1h candle close above the zone. If there is no close above the zone, sell orders should be in play for intraday scalps of 25-30 pips.



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Wednesday 20 November 2013

#USDX analysis for November 20, 2013 Trend News

Prices have remained pressured by sell orders and are continuing their downward slide. The pattern and form of the decline continues to be corrective. Prices continue to trade within the downward sloping channel. The trend is downward for the very short term as shown in the chart below.



Short-term support is found at 80.50 and after that at 80.15. Resistance is found at 80.90 and at 81.35 after that. The short-term trend is downward. This will change if prices break above 80.90. The lower lows and lower highs pattern confirms downward trend in the short term. We remain in the longer term bullish as long as prices trade above 79. In the short term we want prices to break out and above the downward sloping channel in order to get a buy signal.



We believe that the downward move is corrective and soon we will see a short-term trend reversal that will push prices towards 81.50 daily resistance. Support is found at 80.15 where the 34 day MA is now. We believe a bounce off this MA is very possible to signal the expected trend change.


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