Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 15, 2014 Trend News

Today the European region will not release any economic data because of French and Italian Bank Holiday. The US will release economic data such as the PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3426.

Strong Resistance:1.3418.

Original Resistance: 1.3405.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3392.

Target Inner Area: 1.3360.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3328.

Original Support: 1.3315.

Strong Support: 1.3302.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3294. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 15, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, and the US will release some economic data such as PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.03.

Resistance. 2: 102.73.

Resistance. 1: 102.63.

Support. 1: 102.37.

Support. 2: 102.17.

Support. 3: 101.97.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 15, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has had slow movements in the last hours above the support level of 81.50. For now, the bullish trend remains strong in this instrument, so it is likely that the bullish trend will strengthen in the coming days. If the USDX makes a breakout at the support level of 81.50, it would be expected to fall to the level of 80.62, where the 200 SMA is. The MACD indicator is moving into negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has formed another fractal near the support level of 81.28, so the USDX could climb back to the resistance level of 81.72. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 82.45. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has made a rebound on the 200-day moving average, so far, the USDX is trying to consolidate above the support level of 81.57. If the USDX does make a breakout at the 81.73 level, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 82.02. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.73, take profit is at 82.02, and stop loss is at 81.45.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 15, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is starting formation of a higher low pattern above the support level of 1.6668. This support level is near the 200-day moving average on this chart. This pair is likely to move in a range during today's session, because the GBP/USD is oversold. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory and entering oversold zone.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.6692, so it is very likely that this pair will fall to the support level of 1.6644. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the level of 1.6583. However, if this pair makes a breakout of the resistance level of 1.6692, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6731. The GBP/USD stays below the 200 SMA.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to form a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.6700, so this pair could fall to the support level of 1.6629. If the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6578. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory and entering oversold area.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6629, take profit is at 1.6578, and stop loss is at 1.6682.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a one-week high at 102.55 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 8.7% to 12.9; S&P 500 rose 0.67% to close at 1,946.72 overnight) as expectations of continued ultra-loose monetary policies from major central banks offset weak economic data and ongoing concerns over turbulence in the Middle East and Ukraine. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers and bigger-than-expected 0.4% increase in U.S. June business inventories (versus forecast +0.3%); broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 81.60 versus 81.52 early Wednesday). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales and disappointing U.S. July retail sales data (came in flat as the weakest print in six months, versus forecast +0.2%)--reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve won't rush to raise interest rates; lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year yield last 2.420% versus 2.442% late Tuesday).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is neutral, MACD is still in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.75 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.95. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.65. The pivot point is at 102.15.

Resistance levels:

102.75

103

103.25

Support levels:

101.95

101.65

101.40

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. NZD sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected 1.2% increase in New Zealand 2Q retail sales versus forecast +1.0%). NZD/USD is also supported by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the broadly firmer USD undertone, Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, weak dairy prices, reduced expectations of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year and official stance against strong Kiwi exchange rate. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish in the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8530 and the second target at 0.8560. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8415. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8395. The pivot point is at 0.8460.

Resistance levels:

0.8530

0.8560

0.8595

Support levels:

0.8415

0.8395

0.8375

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a range. It is supported by the broadly firmer dollar undertone and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But CHF sentiment is boosted by the rise in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse economic sentiment index to 2.5 points in August from 0.1 point in July. USD/CHF upside is also limited by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on soft EUR/CHF cross. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is in a bearish mode but stochastics is neutral, five-day moving average is fluctuating sideways above advancing 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9030. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9. The pivot point stands at 0.9085. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9110 and the second target at 0.9135.

Resistance levels:

0.9110

0.9135

0.9155



Support levels:

0.9030

0.900

0.8975

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 170.55. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 170.20. The pivot point stands at 171.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.75 and the second target at 172.65.

Resistance levels:

171.75

172.65

173.30



Support levels:

170.55

170.20

169.85

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price was tested at the level of 1.5711 in a volume above the average. We can observe successful rejection from our Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5815, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities. According to the previous price action, we got support at the price of 1.5625 (swing high like resistance). I have placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recent upward leg and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2 % at the price of 1.5710 (currently on the test). Be careful when buying this pair and watch for potential selling opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5851

R2: 1.5871

R3: 1.5902

Support levels:

S1: 1.5789

S2: 1.5769

S3: 1.5738

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The first key level will set at the price of 1.6730 and the second key level will set at the 1.6771 level today. Also, it should be noted that both levels represent the weekly resistance 1 and resistance 2 respectively. Equally important, the weekly pivot point sets at the price of 1.6809. Moreover, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6657 and 1.6730. Additionally, it should be mentioned that the range will be about 58 pips today. As a further matter, the trend is very clear and indicating upward move. Accordingly, we expect that the trend is going to call for the bearish market at the level of 1.6730. As a result, buy at the price of 1.6730 with the target of 1.6657 in order to test the double bottom in H4. On the other hand, your stop loss should be placed above the weekly pivot point which sets at the 1.6809 level. Thus, it will helpful to set it at the price of 1.6833 this week.

Intraday technical levels:

Date:14/08/2014

Pair:GBP/USD

• R3: 1.6946


• R2: 1.6880


• R1: 1.6826


• PP: 1.6760


• S1: 1.6706


• S2: 1.6640


• S3: 1.6586

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Gold analysis for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways, around the price of 1,315.00. We are still waiting for larger movement and larger volume (activity). According to the Daily time frame, we can observe another weak demand candle and successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,321.00 in a higher volume, we may see the level of 1,343.00 is being tested. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent ABC swings and I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,318.00.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,316.27

R2: 1,318.73

R3: 1,322.70

Support levels:

S1: 1,308.33

S2: 1,305.87

S3: 1,307.91

Trading recommendations: Buying Gold looks risky since we got successful rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 14, 2014 Trend News

The daily pivot point: 1.3387

Overview :

• Due to the previous events, the price of EUR/USD pair has still been between the levels of 1.3420 and 1.3366. Therefore, it is recommended to be careful while making deals inside this area. Also, it should be noted that the market showed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in the narrow sideways channel (the range will be from the level of 1.3440 and the 1.3333 level). Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend because the support has already set at the level of 1.3333. In other words, buy deals are recommended above the 1.3333 level with the first target at the level of 1.3390 to test the daily pivot point. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.3405 and further to the level of 1.3440. The level of 1.3440 will act as a strong resistance on August 14, 2014. Furthermore, it should be noted that the double top will set at the price of 1.3443. Nevertheless, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3445, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.3440. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.3440 level in the long term with the first target at 1.3377. The pair is likely to turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.3340.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 14, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 14/08/2014 09:50 CET

The wave development of this pair is rather slow and the general outlook from yesterday hasn't been changed much as the same levels are in play here. The downside extension however might happen only if the key level is violated but otherwise the bias is bearish in the mid-term as there is unfinished red wave 5 to the upside.

Support/Resistance:

1.1011 - WR1

1.0957 - Weekly Pivot

1.0950 - Intraday Resistance

1.0928 - WS1

1.0904 - Intraday Support

1.0875 - WS2 | Wave 4 Red Target Level |

Trading recommendations:

The long positions from yesterday should still be kept open: entry was from the level of 1.0904 or the level of 1.0875, with the SL below the level of 1.0849 and TP above the level of 1.1010.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5814

R2: 1.5796

R1: 1.5778

Current spot: 1.5768

S1: 1.5758

S2. 1.5742

S3: 1.5730

Technical summary:

Wave 2 is unfolding as expected. We are looking for a decline to 1.5707 as the first target. At 1.5707, we will not find the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 1.5398 to 1.5898, but also wave iv to some degree, which normally represents strong support. Therefore, we should expect at least a bounce from 1.5707. An unexpected clear break below 1.5707 will call for a continuation lower to 1.5598.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.5715 with a stop at 1.5660.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 14/08/2014 09:40 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the top for the corrective structure in wave (ii) green is likely to be completed. Besides, the weekly pivot breakout to the downside is the first confirmation of this scenario. In that case, the intraday support at the level of 136.35 is the first target level. But it is very possible that this level will be broken and the market will try to test the recent green wave (i) low as the general outlook is still very bearish.

Support/Resistance:

135.71 - Swing Low

135.80 - WS1

136.35 - Target Level |Intraday Support|

136.85 - Weekly Pivot

137.10 - Intraday Resistance

137.55 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should close the long orders opened at the beginning of the week and open short orders from the level of 136.85 with SL above the level of 137.16 and TP at the level of 136.35 with a quite possible downside extension to the level of 135.72.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.52

R2: 137.34

R1: 137.18

Current spot: 137.13

S1: 136.85

S2: 136.75

S3: 136.60

Technical summary:

Wave iv ended just 4 small pips above our ideal target of 137.14 (the high came in at 137.18). Now, we are looking for a break below support at 136.85 to confirm that wave iv is over and lower wave v at 134.34 is developing. At 134.34, wave C will be equal in length to wave A. As we approch the ideal 134.34 target, we expect the minor swings to be more volatile.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 137.10 with our stop placed at 137.80. Upon a break below 136.85, we will move our stop lower to 137.20. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.17 or upon a break below 136.85 with the same stops.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 14, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: The Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart is still valid, but the bearish movement so far this week is not as strong as the bearish movement on the GBP/USD pair. Yesterday, the market was very volatile – a result of the deadly struggle between the bull and the bear. At last, the bear succeeded in bringing down the price to conform to the bearish outlook. Further downward journey is expected from here.

USD/CHF: The bias on this pair is bullish. The EMA 11 is still above the EMA 56 and the Williams’ % Range shows the propensity to go around the overbought territory. Similar to what happened to EUR/USD, the serious battle between the bull and the bear ended up with the victory of the bull because the price action in the chart still supports the northward outlook. The price may test the resistance level at 0.9100 again.

GBP/USD: The Cable went down further yesterday, and the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart is very strong right now. This week, the pair has dropped by more than 110 pips, going below the distribution territory at 1.6700. Although our target for the week has been hit, the next target is at the accumulation territory of 1.6650. More fundamental figures are coming today and they would have some impact on the markets.

USD/JPY: This pair is going upwards, as predicted yesterday. It may reach the next supply level at 103.00 This would be a great feat if it is achieved. After all, the supply level was tested two weeks ago.

EUR/JPY: The bullish attempt on this cross is getting serious enough to render the general bearish outlook invalid. When the price closes above the supply zone at 137.50, the bearish outlook would become illogical.

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#USDX Technical analysis for August 14, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has been very volatile yesterday. Despite the big downward spike, our important support of 81.35 by the Ichimoku cloud was held and the bullish channel was not broken either. The trend remains up and price is heading for new highs as the double top made is expected to be broken.

In the short-term price remains above the Ichimoku cloud. Support is found at 81.35. If broken, the upward move is over and we should expect a strong pull back. Resistance is found at 81.70. If broken, we should see a move towards 82. However, bulls should be very cautious as this is most probably the final stages of the upward move.

The daily trend remains bullish. Price is still inside the upward sloping channel. Yesterday, I mentioned in my analysis that a trend reversal and start of a downward move will be confirmed only if we see a daily close below and out of the upward sloping channel. Until then, the trend remains bullish. The daily support is found at 81.25 and daily resistance at 81.75. Bulls should keep their stops tight.

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Gold Wave analysis for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Gold price is still in a correction mode. There is still danger that prices might fall towards $1,300-$1,295 to complete the a-b-c correction before resuming upward move towards our medium-term target of $1,350. At $1,350 we will see how strong bulls are. Our bearish wave E of wave 4 count is still valid and a very good possibility. However, the impulsive waves from $1,240 and $1,280 open up the possibilities of bullish scenarios.

Wave c could have ended yesterday at $1,304.50 when price made a marginal new low under wave a. However, we need to see impulsive patterns in order to confirm the corrective wave is over. The bullish momentum remains strong in the short-term as long as price is above the Ichimoku cloud. As mentioned in my previous analysis, 5 waves up are followed by 3 waves down and another 5 waves up. So, I expect at least one more upward move that will give a higher high than $1,322.

The daily chart remains bullish. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud. We are currently in wave C of wave E of wave 4 or (the bullish alternative) wave 3 of the start of a new upward move from $1,180. Support is found today at $1,304. If broken, we will push towards $1,295. Resistance at $1,320 if broken we can push higher towards $1,330-45. Daily important support for bulls is the $1,270 level. Important resistance is found at $1,350-90.

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Intraday analysis of Gold for August 14, 2014 Trend News

The metal prices are closed and trading above the hourly key moving averages 21hrsma, 34hesma, and 12ema. The metal has been struggling to breach the $1,324.50 levels. Until it trades below $1,324.50 on the down side, gates open for 1,270-1,275 with an intermediate strong support at the $1,309, $1,302, 1,295, 1,285, and 1280 levels. For an hourly trading perspective, the metal looks weak only below the $1,309.50-$1,309 levels. Resistance is set at $1,3, $1,3.70 and above this at $1,314.50 and $1,318. Safe traders can sell below $1,309 with the target at $1,304.50, $1,302, and 1,296. Positional trades can sell on an upward move with sl $1,324.50. We can see a strong reversal only above $1,324.50

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Short-term trend levels and an intraday recommendation on GBP/JPY for August 14, 2014 Trend News

Short term view-

The pair made a minor bottom near the 170.72 levels. In early Asia's session, the pair made a low double bottom at 170.88, the previous low was set at the 170.87 levels. In yesterday's session, the pair was rejected at 20DSma and drifted to previous low. On the down side, if the pair hits 170.22, it will take strong support near 170.40 (20DSma). A daily closure below this turns the short trend negative. If it does happen, the bearish trend can reach the 168.65 levels.

Support 170.72 170.40 168.65

Resistance 172.13 172.35 173.10

Intraday cmp 171.10

The prices are closed and trading below the hourly key moving averages. The H4 RSI is indicating a minor positive divergence. Until the price trades below 171.37, 171.50, and 171.60, the pair will face some pressure. On the downside, it has support at the 170.88, 170.72, and 170.40 levels.

Strong buy above 171.60.

Risky traders should buy at cmp.

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