USD/CAD H1 analysis for 13/08/2013 Trend News

General overview for 13/08/2013 07:00 CET:

The price has stucked in consolidation mode between levels of 1.0273 - 1.0315 and is still trading below the Weekly Pivot level.

Small real bodies of the candles suggest a lack of trading activity during the night.

So far there isn't much of an impulsive bullish price action yet, but none of the invalidation levels hasn't been violeted, so patience is required now.

Bigger time frame wave development is still in favour of bullish wave progression, so bias is to the upside.

All yesterday's level are still valid and general outlook hasn't changed much since then.

Support/Resistance:

1.0244 -Swing Low

1.0267 - 88%Fibo

1.0273 - Intraday Low

1.0315 - Intraday High

1.0327 - Weekly Pivot

1.0347 - Technical Resistance

1.0380 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Bias is still to the upside and long positions should be considered here with SL below the intraday low.

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USD/CHF - Mathematical analysis with Murray lines for August 13, 2013 Trend News

Daily Graphic


At the beginning of the week there were many significant changes for the USD/CHF pair and it closed just 14 pips of its opening price.The Swiss report retail sales had no major impact on the currency even though there was an increase of 2.3% in June beating the forecast of 1.9% expected. Meanwhile, we can expect USD/CHF to move within its range area between the line 4/8 and 3/8 Murrey lines today.

Graphic 4 Hours

In 4h chart possible continuation of the upward trend is limited by the line 4/8 (blue line) the same resistor becomes important because it acted as a support was not easily overcome in the days before in the downtrend. Hence also now be difficult for the couple above this level for a possible change of trend.

But on the contrary we believe that the pair tried to still make a new low at the moment the price is underneath the level of 3/8 (green line) and line breaks the short-term uptrend that has formed since the last minimum reached.

Graphic 1 hour

In 1 hour charts oscillator strength bars shows decrease approaching the zero point. On the other hand, the trend oscillator is emerging from oversold zone and the apex of the two trend lines for this time frame coincides with the line 7/8 (yellow line) a line of weak resistance. So we can expect that today the price move downward taking first objective 0.9216.

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Silver faces resistance now at 21.50/70 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has raised through the resistance at 21.50. As it is depicted here, this area is re-enforced by fibonacci trend and counter trend convergence at 21.00/30 respectively. It is now recommended to initiate short positions with a stop above 22.50. A push through 22.50 at this juncture would be turning into bullish reversal for the long term and our trading strategy shall turn to buy on dips from there. Resistance is 22.50 while support is 19.25/30 at the moment. A more conservative trade strategy would be to remain flat for now and see how the price reacts ahead of 22.50.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Go short with a stop just above 22.50

Conservative: Remain flat for a while.

Good luck!

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Gold rallies through 1,340.00 area. 1,350.00 remains the key Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal rallied from 1,340.00 levels yesterday just to meet the backside of the rising trend line; as depicted here. This would act as resistance now and indicates that next bearish leg should resume soon. 1,350.00 levels remain key resistance here and a push through that would confirm further upside towards 1,370/80 and 1,400/05 levels soon enough. Aggressive trading strategy from here could be that of initiating short positions with risk above 1,350.00, while a conservative approach is to wait for 1,350.00 levels to give more clarity.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive: Initiate short positions now, stop at 1,351.50, target 1,244.00

Good luck!

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EURJPY rallies. Stay long for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair is bouncing from the convergence level discussed on Friday. Yesterday, there was an engulfing bullish signal, indicating further uptrend. It is recommended to remain long from Friday and maintain trading strategy on buying at dips from here to upwards. Immediate support now is a 128.00 area, followed by 125.00 and lower; while intermediate resistance is at 132.00/50 marks. Fibonacci extensions are pointing towards 135.00 levels on the higher side. A push higher through 132.00 levels would instill further confidence in the under lying up swing.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, set stop below 128.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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GBP/CHF re-testing Resistance line 1.44/45 remaining key Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair is giving a hit at the backside of the trend line again, which is resistance now. As it is depicted here, immediate resistance is at 1.44/45 area. A push through that level would give a tough time to bears. Higher up resistance is a 1.48 and 1.5 mark; while support is 1.40. The swing structure indicates downside extension below 1.4. It is recommended to remain short with stop above 1.44 for now. Major technical resistance is at 1.5 though. The backside test normally produces powerful trade signals towards a trend; another day or two should clear up the situation.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, set stop above 1.44, target is below 1.4.

Good luck!

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#USDX analysis for August 12, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has broken short term resistance levels at 81.15 and is trying to make a bullish reversal as the price breaks out of the downward sloping trend channel. The short-term support is found at 81 and at 80.85. The price should stay above these support levels for bulls to have increased chances of reversal. The intermediate-term trend remains downward but as it was mentioned before we believe that a trend reversal is around the corner and bears have more to lose at this price level than bulls. The bullish potential could bring the price to 83-84 again.

Short term resistance is found at 81.60-81.95. The price will need to continue above those levels in order to the intermediate-term trend to be challenged. A trend change will be confirmed to upwards if the price breaks above 82.50.

The daily chart shows an early sign of a potential trend reversal but it is still to early to tell if the price have fallen just below 81. The longer-term support still holds at 80.50 and all we need now it is an upward break above 82.50 for the intermediate-term trend to change to upward. We favor long positions with 81.05 stop and 81.70 as a first target.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for August 12, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices broke above the resistace levels at $1,325.00 early Monday putting the bigger bearish picture in danger and changing momentum to upwards. The price managed to break resistance levels and the last stand for bears is the high at $1,349.00 to be tested. The current price actions favors bulls as the downward move from $1,349.00 to $1,270.00 was overlapping and not impulsive. On the other hand, the upward move from $1,270.00 to $1,330.00 looks impulsive and the alternative bullish scenario suddenly has increased chances of success since the high of wave 1 at $1,266.00 was not overlapped. Therefore, it is highly probable to see a new high towards $1,360.00-90.

Our bearish view will be canceled once the prices breaks $1,340.00-49. Until then we expect the price to get bouncing from $1,340.00-49 resistance area and pull back down towards $1,250.00. Initial selling signals will come if the price breaks below $1,313.00 and $1,303.00.

The longer-term picture in Gold also supports our view. The downward move we expect could come soon as the daily chart is just under the upper boundaries of the downward sloping channel. Short positions are favored once support at $1,314.00-$1,303.00 is broken. Stop for bears is at $1,349.00. A target is at $1,150.00. Breaking the MA at $1,282.00 will bring increased selling pressures that will confirm our bearish view.Until then we remain neutral as the price have a bullish momentum and is going to test $1,340.00-50 again.

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