Forecast of USDX for June 19, 2014 Trend News

USDX

The FOMC is optimistic about the US economy. The labor market indicators sign a further growth. In yesterday's meeting of the FOMC, they decided to cut another $10 billion from its quantitative easing program. The reduction brings the monthly bond purchases to $15 billion mortgage and $20 billion treasuries.

The USD index drifted to 80.35 levels and closed below the 200-day EMA. As we discussed in our previous articles the index made a double top at 80.71 levels. The price is forming a small base around 80.35 levels. The index movement is framed between 80.35-80.71 levels. On the upper side, the price has resistance between 80.67-80.71, above this, it can fly up to 81 and 81.30 levels. On a positional basis, if the price closes the week above 81, it can extend its up move to 82.50 and 84 levels. On the down side, it has support between 80.35-80.30 levels, breaking below 80.30, it can take another support at 80.24 levels. Breaking below 80.24, it can correct to 80.17 and 80.08 levels. A day close below 80.08, the bears will tighten their grip for a correction.

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Technical analysis of Silver for June 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver is seen to be breaking out of trend line resistance as seen here. The confirmation is above $20.00 levels though. Recommendations for now is to remain short with risk around $20.40 levels.

2. Support is seen at $19.40, followed by $19.00, $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $20.40, followed by $21.70 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver might be turning bullish; a break of $20.40 would confirm though.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat (conservative trade setups). OR remain short with stop at $20.40.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 19, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Eurogroup Meeting. The US will release the economic data too such as the Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3654.

Strong Resistance:1.3646.

Original Resistance: 1.3633.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3620.

Target Inner Area: 1.3588.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3556.

Original Support: 1.3543.

Strong Support: 1.3530.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3522.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3543 and 1.3633. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3530 and by 1.3646 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3522 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3654 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3556 and at 1.3620, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3588. Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com

My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 19, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, and the US will release some economic data such as Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.47.

Resistance. 2: 102.27.

Resistance. 1: 102.07.

Support. 1: 101.82.

Support. 2: 101.62.

Support. 3: 101.42.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.42) and resistance 3 (102.47). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The Eur/JPY seems to be facing resistance just ahead of the fibonacci 0.618 levels as seen here. The pair could reverse from 138.50 levels, towards fresh lows. Recommendations are to initiate short positions here, risk remains 140.00.

2. Support is seen st 138.00 levels (interim), followed by 136.50, 134.00 and lower, while resistance is at 140.00, followed by 141.00, 142.50/143.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY might reverse from 138.50 levels. A break below 138.00 could be extremely bearish for the pair, towards 132.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short now, stop at 140.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for June 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is setting for for further correction towards at least 1.5100 levels from here on. Recommendations are to remain short, risk remains above 1.53 for now. A bullish bounce around 1.5090/1.5100 could be bought again.

2. Support is seen at 1.4900/50, followed by 1.4780, 1.4650, 1.4550 and lower while resistance is at 1.5300 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF bears could remain in control till the corrective fall towards resistance turned support level around 1.5100 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop above 1.5300, target is 1.5100.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of AUS/NZD for June 19, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been in a down trend from 1.1029 levels. It has been on a down stream for the last 7 trading sessions. In yesterday's session, it took support exactly at the lower supporting trend line. Currently, it is facing strong resistance at 1.0790 (61.8 fib level). The daily Stochastics favors a pullback. The pair will get strong momentum above 1.0790 for 1.0830 and 1.0842 levels. On the down side, if the pair breaks the previous support at 1.0740, it can extend its red blanket up to 1.0687, and 1.0640 levels.

For an intraday purpose, the pair has support at 1.0768; below this, again it will become weak and look at another support at 1.0740 and 1.0725. The panic will be triggered below 1.0725 for 1.0687 and 1.0660 levels. On the north side, the resistance levels are at 1.0790-1.0795 and 1.0822 levels. Strong momentum above 1.0822 for 1.0833, and 1.0865 levels. The hourly RSI favors pullback from the oversold levels.

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Monthly forecast and intraday recommendation on NZD/USD for June 19, 2014 Trend News

NZD/USD

The NZ economy is growing in a good state of health. The kiwi became stronger after the central bank raised the interest rate last week. The quarterly GDP data showed economic activity had increased 1.0% in the March quarter 2014. In that, construction and mining gained momentum, and wholesale trade was partly down.

Longer term-

The kiwi traded at a multi-year high versus USD and a multi-year low versus the euro. NZD/USD is trading at 0.8717 levels. It is marching towards the multi-year high at 0.8846, as of now, this month it made a high at 0.8738 and yearly high was 0.8779 (May 2014). The pair took support at the 61.8 fib level and bounced to the higher levels. On the higher side, if the pair breaks the previous high at 0.8738, it can fly up to 0.9177 and 0.9550 levels. The support is at 0.8675, 0.8404, and 0.8342 levels.

The pair made a double top at 0.8738 levels in today's early session. Until the pair breaches the double top, selling on the rise is the best strategy. On the north side, if the pair breaches 0.8738, it can fly up to 0.8746 and 0.8780 levels. A new multi-year breakout will take place if the pair breaches the 0.8780 levels. On the down side, the pair has support at 0.8644, 0.8595 and 0.8525 levels. A day close below 0.8595, the short-term trend will be on the down side for 0.8525, 0.8482 and 0.8420 levels. The daily momentum oscillators are indicating an overbough signs.

For an intraday basis, the pair has support at 0.8675; breaking below that, it can extend its fall to 0.8668 and 0.8665 levels. On the higher side, it has resistance at 0.8738, which once broken above and it can move up to 0.8746, 0.8755 and 0.8780. The fresh up move will be intact only above 0.8738 levels.

Intraday- Sell with sl 0.8738 or sell below 0.8674.

Buy above 0.8740.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await 1800 GMT Federal Reserve interest rate announcement which is followed by Janet Yellen press briefing: the Fed is expected to reduce its mortgage and Treasury bond buying program by another $10 billion to $35 billion per month. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.61 versus 80.45 early Tuesday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields after faster-than-expected 0.4% rise in U.S. May CPI (versus +0.2% forecast) stoked speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than markets had originally expected. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from the Japanese importers, PM Abe's plans to cut corporate income taxes and turn the $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund into a more risk-taking equities-focused investor and yen-funded funded carry trades amid improved investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.66% to 12.06) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 0.22% at 1,941.99). But risk sentiment are dented by the larger-than-expected 6.5% drop in the U.S. May housing starts (versus -3.7% forecast) and 6.4% decrease in U.S. May building permits (versus -1.9% forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japan exporter sales.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.40 and the second target at 102.65. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.55. The pivot point is at 101.90.

Resistance levels:

102.40

102.65

102.80

Support levels:

101.75

101.55

101.45

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate as markets await the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. It is supported by the positive USD sentiment, lower-than-expected Switzerland May import price index (came in -0.8% on-year versus -0.6% forecast) and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance. But USD/CHF upside is limited by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and caution before SNB's interest rate announcement on Thursday. Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways above advancing 15-day MA.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8955. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8940. The pivot point stands at 0.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9015 and the second target at 0.9035.

Resistance levels:

0.9015

0.9035

0.9060

Support levels:

0.8955

0.8940

0.89

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias as markets await the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. NZD/USD is undermined by the positive USD sentiment. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the improved investor risk appetite, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.87 and the second target at 0.8745. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.86. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8560. The pivot point is at 0.8635.

Resistance levels:

0.87

0.8745

0.8780

Support levels:

0.86

0.8560

0.85

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets await the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. It is supported by the improved investor risk appetite and demand from the Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.55. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.85. The pivot point stands at 17.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.25 and the second target at 174.85.

Resistance levels:

174.26

174.85

175.35

Support levels:

172.55

171.85

171.15

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Daily analysis of Silver for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From the today's H4 chart, the metal failed to break the Support level of 19.50 to bounce again from it and trades between this Support level and below the Resistance level 19.90. Currently, the metal is most likely re-testing the Resistance level of 19.90 again, therefore we should wait for closing above to continue its upward trend move. Given that the metal has managed to close 4H above today, so this gives us a good opportunity for more bullish signals above it with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.20, then the second target 20.50 after breaking this Support level. But as long as silver is trading below 19.90 so waiting would be preferred in that case and cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.50), R2 (20.20), R1 (19.90), S1 (19.50), S2 (19.20), S3(19.00)

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview

According to today's H4 chart, yesterday's closing below the resistance level of 173.50 gave the price an opportunity to make a bearish move after it failed to break it through. As shown here, currently the price is trying to continue its bearish move and is approaching support level of 172.75. In that case, we may get another opportunity for more sell signals which will open the way towards 172.00 as the first target. Then the price should test the support level of 172.00 to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 172.75, this cancels the first scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.40), R2 (174.00), R1 (173.50), S1 (172.75), S2 (172.00), S3 (171.50).

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Since the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel which managed to push towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) for few times.

The market has shown a significant bullish recovery around 1.0830 (bullish engulfing daily candlestick) aiming to push higher towards 1.0910-1.0950 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on March 21.

The USD/CAD pair found temporary resistance around 1.0910-1.0950 that was able to pause the ongoing bullish momentum.

As expected, a bearish corrective movement took place towards 1.0875-1.0800 ( depicted on the 4H chart ) to collect more buyers to allow a bullish breakout above 1.0950 to take place.

Bullish recovery can be seen around 1.0800 which is manifested in a "double-bottom" pattern being established on the 4H chart.

4H fixation above 1.0875 confirms the pattern exposing price levels around 1.0950 shortly after.

The pair remains trapped within the current congestion zone untill breakout occurs in either direction probably towards the bullish side as mentioned above.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

• The resistance of EUR/USD pair has broken and turned to support around the price of 1.3477. Therefore, the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.3477. Also it should be noted that the minor support has set at the price of 1.3511 and the same price is representing the double bottom. Moreover, after it could not close below these levels and the pair started signing bullish market at this area. Moreover, the RSI and last strong support (around the double bottom at 1.3511) are still calling for uptrend at this spot. So, the pair will call for upside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the rising does not look corrective, in order to indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.3511 for that it will be a good sign to buy at 1.3511 with the first target of 1.3573 (the weekly pivot point) and it will continue its bullish move towards 1.3608. The ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with the 1.3608 price. However, it should also be noted that the price is going to move between 1.3530 and 1.3590.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

• The market is going to continue to show signs of strength at the level of 1.0800. Therefore the USD/CAD's resistance has been broken and it turned to support for five months (January 8, 2014), so the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.0800. Additionally, according to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair has still been trapped between 1.0885 and 1.0841. Hence, the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.0800 with the first target of 1.0873 and continues towards 1.0925. On the contrary, stop-loss is to be placed below the level of 1.0800. This level is representing a new double bottom in the H4 chart. However, If the trend cannot break and close above the level of 1.0930, then it will be a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall will not be corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the level of 1.0930. Consequently, strong resistance will be formed at the level of 1.0930 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 1.0813 in order to test the double bottom.

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#USDX Technical analysis for June 18, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in a sideways consolidating pattern that looks like a triangle. Trend remains neutral. I prefer to remain with no position. I prefer neutrality as this could break out any way. If I had to choose the direction I believe is the most probable that it will take, I would say that we should expect a move lower.

The Dollar index has short-term support at 80.45 and short-term resistance at 80.75. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud that is very thin. This means that we should expect volatility to rise soon and we should expect a break out soon.

The Dollar index is consolidating near the highs. This is good if you want to take a short position with 81 as a stop reverse level. Important daily resistance at 81. Daily support is found at 80.05. Best strategy is to wait and act after a buy or sell signal is given.

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Gold technical analysis for June 18, 2014 Trend News

The rise from $1,240 to $1,286 in Gold price was retraced by nearly 50% yesterday. This pull back found support at $1,258 as I mentioned yesterday that a pull back towards $1,255-50 was expected.

Gold price as long as it holds above $1,258, we should expect the upward move to continue towards $1,300 and why not higher. If $1,258 is broken and we see at least a one-hour close below that level, we should anticipate Gold price to challenge $1,240 lows with a potential break towards $1,200-20.

Our longer-term view remains uchanged. As long as $1,240 is not broken, wave D is complete and we should expect a move towards $1,330-40. If we break support at $1,240 I believe we are going to test support at $1,180.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.5742

R2: 1.5678

R1: 1.5653

Current spot: 1.5630

S1: 1.5626

S2: 1.5608

S3: 1.5566

Technical summary:

After a perfect test of 1.5683 we are looking for confirmation that blue wave iv is over. A break below minor support at 1.5608 will confirm that blue wave iv is over and blue wave v towards 1.5447 and possibly even lower towards 1.5296 is developing. In the short term we are looking for resistance at 1.5666 to protect the upside for a break below 1.5626 and more importantly a break below 1.5608 confirming a new test of 1.5566 is on the way lower towards 1.5447.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 1.5660 and will move our stop lower to 1.5685 from 1.5700 upon a break below 1.5608. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 1.5626 with the same stop at 1.5685.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 18, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 139.14

R2: 138.84

R1: 138.66

Current spot: 138.49

S1: 138.29

S2: 138.12

S3: 137.70

Technical summary:

We have been looking for a triangle building in this cross, but something is simply wrong with this count. So we have been back to the drawing board looking at the possibilities and having a new preferred count.

This count shows that we are well under way in wave C. Wave B ended at 143.79, wave 1 ended at 140.44 and was followed by an expanded flat correction in wave 2 to 143.47. From 143.47 we saw wave 3 declining to 161.8% of the wave 1 target at 138.06 and wave 4 corrected a perfect 50% of wave 3. Since the wave 4 high at 140.08, we have seen wave i of 5 lower to 137.72 and an minor expanded flat is unfolding as wave ii of 5, and we should soon see wave iii of 5 lower towards 134.67.

I am sorry for the conflicting counts in this cross, but when I detect a mis-count, we always will do anything to correct as soon as possible.

Trading receommendation:

We where long in EUR from 138.40 and will close this position and place a EUR sell order at 138.15 with stop at 138.95.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 18, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 18/06/2014 08:10 CET

The market conditions are rather muted and the upward wave development might wait for some fundamental trigger to speed up on this pair. Currently the price is just bellow important resistance zone and it has broken out of the golden channel already. The bias is still bullish and higher prices might be seen if the key level is broken. On the other hand, any breakout below the level of 1.0835 is bearish and technical support zone will be tested next.

Support/Resistance:

1.0805 - WS1

1.0821 - Technical Support

1.0835 - Intraday Support

1.0872 - Weekly Pivot

1.0874 - Intraday Resistance

1.0884 - Key Level

1.0904 - WR1

1.0959 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Still no new positions are advised until a clear pattern will emerge or the market will break out above the important level. Patience.

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