Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Final CPI m/m, Employment Change q/q.The US will release the economic data too such as the US-PPI m/m, US-Core PPI m/m, US-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, US-Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will with move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3931.

Strong Resistance:1.3922.

Original Resistance: 1.3909.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3896.

Target Inner Area: 1.3863.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3830.

Original Support: 1.3817.

Strong Support: 1.3804.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3795.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3817 and 1.3909. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3804 and by 1.3922 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3795 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3931 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3830 and at 1.3896, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3863.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 14, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Revised Industrial Production m/m and the US will release some economic data such as US-PPI m/m, US-Core PPI m/m, US-Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, US-Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.31.

Resistance. 2: 102.11.

Resistance. 1: 101.91.

Support. 1: 101.67.

Support. 2: 101.47.

Support. 3: 101.26.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.26) and resistance 3 (102.31). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Daily analysis of USDX for March 14, 2013 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX continues bearish patterns forming below the resistance level of 80.11. Now, the USDX is trying to fall to the support level of 79.19, and almost succeeded when fell to the level of 79.25. However, if the USDX makes a bullish rebound at current levels, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 80.11. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX found support near the 79.32 level. For now, the USDX remains below the resistance level of 79.69. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 79.81. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 79.32, it's expected to fall to the level of 78.85. The MACD indicator is oversold.

H1 chart: The USDX made a bullish rebound above the support level of 79.39 and now the USDX is again trying to break the resistance level of 79.64. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 79.8, which is above the 200 SMA. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a bearish rebound at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the level of 79.39. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.88, and stop loss is at 79.41.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD attempted to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.6663. However, this pair remains below that level and still forming a higher low pattern, so it is very likely that this pair will try to drop the support level of 1.6540. On the other hand, if the pair manages to consolidate above the 1.6663 level, it's expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6766, which would be a strong bullish consolidation. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: This pair found resistance near the 1.6667 level. Now, this pair is keeping consolidating below the level of 1.6644. Furthermore, the GBP/USD remains above the 200-day moving average, so you have to be patient before a bullish rebound. However, if the pair manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.6583, GBP/USD would be consolidating into a bearish bias. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD made a bearish rebound near the resistance level of 1.6700, where the 200-day moving average is. Now this pair is forming a bearish pattern below the point of control at the level of 1.6629. If the pair manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6578, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6544. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6578, take profit is at 1.6544, and stop loss is at 1.6611.

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Analysis of gold for March 14, 2014 Trend News

The weak dollar is pushing gold prices to a 6-month high. In the week ending March 8, the advanced figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 315,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 324,000. The 4-week moving average was 330,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average of 336,750.

Technical view-

Gold is trading at a daily high of $1,375.60, as of now in Asia. It is facing a stiff resistance at $1,377.0. We recommended in our previous post to buy gold. In case of a daily close above the level of $1,355.0, we will see $1,359.0 $1,362.0, $1,375.0, $1,395.0, $1,420.0, and $1,440.0. We are still waiting for the next targets. If the price crosses above the $1,378.0, we can see further hike towards $1,395.0 and $1,401.0. On the down side, If gold is unable to cross the $1,377.0, it can correct up to $1,370.0, $1,366.0, $1,354.0, and $1,349.0. A day close below $1,330.0 is a bearish view, until that, buy on dips is the best strategy.

Intraday-

Sell below $1,364.0.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been trying to cross the resistance level of 0.9085. If the pair closes above the level of 0.9085, then we can see a huge momentum upside towards the targets at 0.9205, 0.9246, 0.9450, and 0.9516. The pair did multiple attempts to cross the 0.9085 level from its daily high made on January 13, 2014. It succeeded three times, but was unable to close above that level. On the down side, 0.8992, 0.8977, and 0.8929 are the strong support zones. A move below the level of 0.8890 will lead to a fall towards 0.8730, 0.8693, and 0.8660. The daily momentum indicators show a buy signal.

Positional

S1 0.8992 R1 0.9085

S2 0.8890 R2 0.9205

S3 0.0.8693 R3 0.9246

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

The pair is trading near the resistance level. The pair is in an upmove from the lows at 1.0955 and moved higher towards 1.1154. In the H4 chart, the pair is trading between 1.1078-1.1038, either side breakout will lead further move. The pair has broken the inverted head and shoulder pattern in a downtrend from previous highs at 1.1195. If the price breaks the 200Ema level of 1.1038, it will fall back to 1.0955 and 1.0910. If the pair breaks above the resistance level of 1.10785, it will climd up to 1.1087, 1.118, 1.1131, and 1.1150 on an intraday basis. In the positional view, the levels of 1.0267 and 1.0955 will act as strong support. On the upper side, if the price trades above the level 1.1154, it will hike to the 1.15 levels. The daily momentum indicators are showing a negative signal.

Recommendations-

Hourly basis- buy with sl at 1.1044, targets at 1.10853, 1.10994 1.1123, cmp at 1.1070

Intraday -

Buy above 1.10785, targets are 1.10899, 1.1118, and 1.1134, sl 1.10382, cmp 1.1070.

Sell below 1.1038, targets are 1.0955 and 1.0910.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 13, 2014 Trend News

On Friday, after the GBP/USD pair breached the price level of 1.6785, the market expressed a Shooting Star daily candlestick indicating strength of the bearish momentum on these levels.

As depicted on the chart, the next demand level is located around 50% Fibonacci at 1.6540. This is the next destination for the bears.

As long as 1.6820 remains the highest level for the month, the price level of 1.6540 remains the target for the bears to gather enough bullish momentum to push higher again.

Another scenario is that a Double Top pattern is being established with the neckline located around 1.6600-1.6580 which is being tested today with some bullish rejection being expressed so far.

Daily fixation below this neckline will enable the pair to reach 1.6400 as a projection target.

Yesterday, the bears failed to close below 1.6580 (neckline). That's why, another bullish swing towards 1.6800 is expected.

Price zone of 1.6700-1.6730 remains an intraday supply for the pair.

Bearish rejection is being expressed on the retesting that took place today.

As long as the bears remains defending this price zone, the pair remains heading towards 1.6600. Stop loss for the bearish scenario should be located above 1.6750.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting four-day low at 102.55 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 79.60 versus 79.80 early Wednesday),lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan export sales. But the USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, buying of yen crosses amid receding investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge fell 2.23% to 14.47, S&P rose 0.03% overnight) even as the turmoil in Ukraine roils, as speculation increase over further monetary easing in China such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio for banks ; if there were more signs of slowing growth.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is falling from overbought zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 102.2. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 102. The pivot point stands at 102.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.20 and the second target at 102.

Resistance levels:

103.15

103.40

103.60

Support levels:

102.2

102

101.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting two-year low at 0.8731 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the broadly weaker dollar undertone and franc demand on the buoyant CHF/JPY cross and on the soft EUR/CHF cross. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although latter is at oversold zone, five- and fifteen-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8695. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8680. The pivot point stands at 0.8730. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8750 and the second target at 0.8765.

Resistance levels:

0.8750

0.8765

0.8805

Support levels:

0.8695

0.8680

0.8645

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

The NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% and RBNZ Gov. Wheeler said that the pace of hikes won't change just because the central bank thinks the Kiwi is overvalued, while the bank's forecasts point to slightly more aggressive rate hikes than its prior forecasts in December. The NZD/USD was also buoyed by broadly weaker dollar undertone and the Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid improved risk tolerance as well as the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. The daily chart is positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday; the MACD is bullish, while stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone with five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8650 and the second target at 0.8680. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8430. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.840. The pivot point is at 0.8485.

Resistance levels:

0.8650

0.8680

0.8725

Support levels:
0.8430

0.84

0.8370

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GOLD analysis for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,374.98 high volume (buying climax). Since the gold has broke our major resistance level at the price of 1,355.00, we may expect testing the level of 1,395.00-1,401.00 (Fibonacci levels). According to the daily chart, we can observe buying climax on the high new ground, which is sign that buying at this stage looks very risky. We may see possible bearish correction, before larger bullish movement. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential target level if the price starts with bearish correction and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,357.00 according to the current swing high.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,370.91

R2: 1,376.93

R3: 1,386.67

Support levels:

S1: 1,351.43

S2: 1,345.41

S3: 1,335.67

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying at this stage since we may see bearish correction before any larger upward movement.

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, the price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6478 on very high volume and tested the level of 1.6223 on high volume (selling climax). Our previous analysis is still valid. Be careful with selling since we've got selling climax on the background and we are near the previous lows. The EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6190 on high volume, we may see testing the level of 1.6145 before any larger upward movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6429

R2: 1.6469

R3: 1.6534

Support levels:

S1: 1.6300

S2 : 1.6260

S3: 1.6196

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the potential bullish continuation phase.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

The GBP/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the improved risk tolerance and positive euro sentiment, demand from Japan importers and loose BOJ's monetary policy. But the GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales. The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172 and the second target at 172.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 170. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 169.35. The pivot point is at 170.45.

Resistance levels:

172

172.90

173.60

Support levels:

170

169.35

168.75

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In 4H chart, the pair failed more than once to break the support level of 170.50 and is still trading above it since yesterday. From the today's 4H chart, the pair bounced from the support area again and started to take a slightly upward move approaching the resistance level of 171.50 which is tested now. Currently, it is preferred to wait till closing above this resistance level before making the decision and in this case we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next resistance level of 172.00 then 172.75 as the second target. But closing below the Resistance level of 171.50 cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (172.75), R2 (172.00), R1 (171.50), S1 (170.50), S2 (169.75), S3 (169.20).

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#USDX Technical analysis for March 13, 2014 Trend News

The trend in the Dollar index remains down. The index continues to make lower lows and lower highs. The Dollar index was rejected at 79.80-90 resistance and turned lower to make new lows towards our target of 79. A few days ago, we mentioned that the bearish flag pattern was giving a target near the 79.15-79.

Short-term trend is down. Ichimoku cloud remains resistance as it is above the current price. Short-term support is found at 79.20-15 where the wedge boundaries are found as can be seen in the chart above. Short-term resistance is found at 79.80-90 and only if the index breaks above this level we can expect a test of the upper channel boundaries and the Ichimoku cloud resistance at 80-80.10.

The daily chart as shown above shows clearly why we preferred short positions the last few days. Trend is clearly down and can only change if the index manages to break above 80.20. The dollar index is heading towards 79 and we can see a short-term bounce up from that support level. Long-term trend will only change if price breaks above 81.40. Long-term trend is down.

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Gold technical analysis for March 13, 2014 Trend News

In the previous analysis, we mentioned that if Gold price made a break above $1,355, we should anticipate uptrend to resume with $1,380-90 target. Gold price remains in uptrend. Short-term support is found at $1,364 and $1,355. Short-term resistance is found at $1,380-90.

The weak dollar and tensions in Ukraine make Gold popular as a safe haven asset and demand rises. The trend is clearly up and bulls will have problems if Gold price falls below $1,340. Ichimoku cloud support is found at $1,340, but I do not expect Gold price to pull back more than $1,355. I expect Gold price to continue higher and continue to make higher highs and higher lows.

The double bottom in Gold daily chart as shown above gives us the target of $1,500-$1,600 now that Gold price has clearly broken above the downward sloping red trend line resistance. We are bullish on Gold and we expect this upward trend to remain strong. Short-term stop for bulls is $1,330. Intermediate-term stop for bulls is $1,290.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 13, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 13/03/2014 10:50 CET

The complex correction in wave (iv) green looks finished as the market is trying to resume the upward trend. The red trendline is broken now but the whole move upward lacks an impulsive wave progression, so there might still be a possibility that wave (iv) has not been completed yet. Currently, the market is in range area and bulls and bears are fighting over to take control: a breakout higher above the level of 143.36 is bullish, a breakout lower below the level of 142.83 is bearish. Time will show, patience is required now.

Support/Resistance:

143.78 - Swing high

143.36 - Intraday resistance

142.83 - Intraday support

142.31 - Weekly pivot

141.46 - Techncial support (weak)

Trading recommendations:

Trade the range breakout here:

- buy stop orders should be opened from the level of 143.41 with SL below the level of 142.83 and TP at the level of 143.78 with a possible upside extension.

- sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 142.79 with SL above the level of 143.36 and TP at the level of 142.31 with a possible downside extension to the level of 141.46.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 13, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 13/03/2014 10:30 CET

The count has been slightly changed due to the recent price action. The top for wave 2 green might be in place now as the full five wave progression can be labeled. An alternate count suggests that the current structure is an abc irregular flat correction that might end soon at one of the Fibonacci levels. Nevertheless, any breakout below the level of 1.1004 would suggest more weakness is coming into the market and wave progression would invalidate the alternate count. Another clue that indicates the top for wave 2 might be in place is the fact that the market is testing the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1062 and starts to trade below it.

Support/Resistance:

1.0952 - Swing low

1.1004 - Intraday support

1.1008 - WS1

1.1062 - Weekly pivot

1.1070 - Intraday resistance

Trading recommendations:

For intraday scalpers: short positions should be opened from the level of 1.1070 with SL above the level of 1.1077 and TP at the level of 1.1029 and 1.10004.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Forecast :

• According to previous events, The AUD/USD pair has still been trapped between 0.9090 and 0.9030.


• Strong resistance will be formed at the level of 0.9140 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 0.9030. Stop-loss is to be placed above 0.9175.


• Strong level (support) will be formed at the level of 0.9010 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 0.9110 level. Stop-loss is to be placed below 0.8980.

Notes :

• The double top will be set at the level of 0.9133.


• We expect a range of 64 pips. But it should be noted that the risk of 64pips must make a profit of 96 pips.


• Volatility: 85.81. Therefore, the market indicates the higher volatility.


• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.9033 (for confirming for the bullish market).

Intraday technical levels:

Date and Time: 13/03/2014 09:53

Pair: AUD/USD

• R3: 0.9198


• R2: 0.9139


• R1: 0.9103


• PP: 0.9044


• S1: 0.9008


• S2: 0.8949


• S3: 0.8913

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 13, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• As expected, the support has broken and turned to resistance at the same key level (1.1150), so the resistance of the USD/CAD pair has already set at the price of 1.1150. Equally important, the price set below the resistance fifteen days ago. Furthermore, the price has still been moving between 1.1130 and 1.1066. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of bearish market, hence the market indicates the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.1150 with the first target of 1.1050, and continues towards the level of 1.1030 again. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it will of the wisdom to set your stop loss at the 1.1025 price.


• It should be noted that the level of 1.1030 is representing a strong support on March 13, 2014. Moreover, the same level is coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Consequently, the pair is going to form a strong support at the 1.1030 price.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 13, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is now challenging the resistance level at 1.3950, which ought to be breached soon. Our target at the resistance level of 1.4000 remains unchanged. In addition, there are some economic figures that would be released today, and they will have impact on this market.

USD/CHF: This pair is now trading below our target - at the former support level at0.8750. With the continuation of the bearish pressure, the possibility of the price testing the support level at 0.8700 is very high. This is an easy target.

GBP/USD: On the Cable, the price slashed through the accumulation territory at 1.6600, but it was unable to close below it. Further bearish plunge was rejected as the price rose upwards, targeting the accumulation territory at 1.6700. However, it is better to wait to see a confirmed bias in the market before one takes a side. Why? The bulls are currently battering the bears, but no bullish signal has been confirmed in the timeframe.

USD/JPY: This market is showing lack of strength as the price slashes through the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is already below the level 50, but the price needs to close below the EMA 56 before the short trade is sought. The bias this week has been bearish so far; the price has dropped by over 50 pips.

EUR/JPY: This currency trading instrument is still fighting the bearish pulls on it, successfully. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart is still very much relevant (although tight stop orders would have been triggered). It is almost sure that the supply zone at 145.00 will be tested.

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