Tuesday 13 May 2014

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 14, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF has produced a doji candlestick pattern yesterday indicating a possible reversal down today. The pair has traded in a very tight range between 1.4990 and 1.4960/70 in the last trading sessions. A reversal is expected today till prices stay below the 1.4990/1.5000 levels for now. Recommendations are to remain short (aggressive trade setups), risk remains above 1.5040. A more conservative approach would be to remain flat for now. The pair has broken past resistance at 1.4960/70 levels and hence high probability setup is to retrace from here towards the mid 1.4600's.


2. Support is at 1.4780/1.4800, followed by 1.4630, 1.4450/1.4550, and lower, while resistance is at 1.5120 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF should retrace lower for now, at least towards 1.4650 levels if not further. A bearish reversal candle today would confirm that as well.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short (aggressive setup), stop at 1.5040/50, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been consolidating for the last two months. It's stuck in a range between 143.78 and 139.88. Until the pair breaks above the 143.78 level, it favors selling on rally (weekly RSI). On the down side, if the pair breaks the previous week's low at 139.88, it will drift to 139.14 and 138.78 initially and later 136.2 and 134 levels will be on the cards. On the up side, the initial resistance exists at last week's high at 142.35 and 143.8 levels.


EURJPYWeekly.png

The pair is trying to hold the previous support at 139.88 levels. The daily momentum indicators favor to buy at cmp or even on dip at 139.75 (38.2 fib level). On the up side the pair has strong resistance at 140.91 and 140.51.


EURJPYDaily.png

For an intraday purpose, we favor buy side supporting by hourly momentum indicators. On the up side the pair is facing resistance at 140.16 levels above this it will fly up to 140.30, 140.82, 141.11 and 141.26. Though the pair is in a pullback mode from the oversold levels, it has a rough road ahead at 140.16, 140.82 levels. The RSI is indicating a positive divergence.


EURJPYH4.png

Recommendations- cmp 140.04.


Safe traders, buy above 140.16 for targets at 140.30, 140.82, 141.11 and 141.26.


Risky traders, buy and hold at cmp or even deeper.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been in a downtrend from 103 levels. Currently, it is facing stiff resistance at 50.0 fib levels 102.36 (50 daily SMA). In the weekly chart, the pair broke the lower trend line. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 102.19 levels. Until the pair crosses the 102.36 levels, sellers will take the pair towards 102, 101.80, and 101.50 levels. A day close above 102.36 (50daily SMA), the bulls will take control can take the pair up to 102.66 and 103 levels.


1400035397_USDJPYDaily.png

In the H4 chart, the hourly momentum indicators favors sell side. The pair is facing strong resistance at 102.23, above this, 102.36 is the crucial resistance. Traders can enter shorts at cmp or even rise at 102.36 levels for downside targets at 101.98, 101.80, and 101.50. The panic mode will activate below 101.97 levels.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 14, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD


Today the pair is packed with vital economic events. Traders eye unemployment benefits, unemployment rate, BOE's Governor speech, and inflation report. We expect the UK unemployment rate will fall to 6.8%. The inflation data is more crucial and is to be vigilant. The pair is under a healthy correction and have strong support at 1.6820 levels; below this, 1.6795 is a very strong support level.


The pair opened on a bullish note; it is trading at 1.6826 levels. We expect the pair will face huge volatility ahead of a series of economic events. We favor the buy side at cmp or even a dip. The hourly momentum indicators are supporting my view. The pair will move to 1.6862, 1.6885, and 1.69 levels. Once the pair crosses and sustain above 1.6911, it will spike up to 1.6930-1.6940 levels immediately.


GBPUSDH4.png

The pair has been making a lower highs pattern, so today the pair must break the bearish pattern to resume its down side journey. For that the pair must cross above 1.6883 levels. On a closing basis, if the pair closes above 1.6883, the bulls will be back on track to make new highs. On the down side, if the pair closes below the 1.682 levels, the bears will take control. The pair looks safe for buying when it trades above the 1.6837 levels.


GBPUSDDaily.png

Recommendations- cmp 1.6826.


Buy at cmp or even dip for targets at 1.6862, 1.6885, and 1.69.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 14 2104 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair tests range bottom at 140.00 once again for now. A bullish reversal seems more probable from current levels of 140.10/15, which could push prices towards the mid 142.00's easily. A push above 143.00 would confirm that bulls are firmly in control and poised to test 144.00 and 145.50 as well. On the flip side, a break below 140.00/139.80 would ensure that the pair is slated for a larger correction. Recommendations are to remain flat for now.


2. Support is at 140.00, followed by 138.50, 136.00 and lower while resistance is at 142.50/143.00 followed by 143.50/144.00 an 145.50 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that the EUR/JPY pair could move towards 142.50 at least till the time prices stay above 140.00 levels for now. A break below would be encouraging for bears though.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now OR long with stop below 139.80, target is 142.50.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD


German investor confidence fell again. It's the 5th consecutive fall. The strong EURO looks a huge problem for the recovery and the low inflation fears is a menace. The index index fell from 43.0 in April to 33.1 in May. The negative economic data affects EUR/USD, it dropped to weekly key parallel support levels at 1.367.


If we look into the technical picture, the story completely varies. The pair is heading towards the weekly key support area where the buying activity will take place. As we discussed in our yesterday's article, to go short below 1.3737 for 1.367 as targets, the pair made a low at 1.3689. In today's session we are recommending to enter longs in this pair. It will shift its journey towards the upside from the cmp or even dip at 1.367. As we have shown in the below weekly chart, risky traders can use sl at 1.364 and safe traders use sl at 1.367 on a closing basis.



The pair opened its trading on a bullish note. Currently, it is trading at 1.3704 levels. The daily momentum indicators signal the buy on dip strategy with sl 1.367 on a closing basis for targets at 1.3775 and 1.3823 levels on a positional basis.


EURUSDDaily.png

Intraday-


The pair is trading at 1.3704, we recommend to buy this pair at cmp or even dip up to 1.367. It's a good opportunity to enter longs at this current juncture. We expect the pair will fly up to 1.3723, 1.3750, 1.3763, 1.3770, and 1.3818 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.367 levels. Bulls need to hold this level, if not more panic days will come. Traders need to tighten their seat belts for drastic fall. On the other hand, the downside is limited by the technical aspects.


EURUSDH4.png

Recommendations- cmp 1.3704.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2014 Trend News

!EU140514.jpg


When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Final CPI m/m, French CPI m/m, Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3774.

Strong Resistance:1.3765.

Original Resistance: 1.3752.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3739.

Target Inner Area: 1.3706.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3673.

Original Support: 1.3660.

Strong Support: 1.3647.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3638. DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3660 and 1.3752. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3660 and by 1.3765 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3638 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3774 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3673 and at 1.3739, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3706. Best regards, Arief Makmur Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 14, 2014 Trend News

!UJ140514.jpg


In Asia, Japan will release the CGPI y/y, Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.71.

Resistance. 2: 102.51.

Resistance. 1: 102.31.

Support. 1: 102.05.

Support. 2: 101.85.

Support. 3: 101.65.
DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.65) and resistance 3 (102.71). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.


Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief


Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 14, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX is very close to making a breakout at the resistance level of 80.11. If successful, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 80.62, which is very close to the 200 SMA. However, keep in mind that the USDX has had a pretty lateralized bullish trend, so the USDX could make corrective movements. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


usdxdaily.png

H4 chart: The USDX has found resistance at the 80.15 level, but the USDX could achieve consolidate above this level. If successful, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 80.35. However, the USDX could make a breakout at the support level of 80.09 and falling to the level of 79.99. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.


usdxh4.png

H1 chart: The USDX is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 80.15, as the USDX could rise to the level of 80.35. However, it is likely that the USDX will fall to the support level of 79.88. However, if the USDX does make a breakout at the support level, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.64. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


usdxh1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.15, take profit is at 80.35, and stop loss is at 79.95.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 14, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has made a breakout at the support level of 1.6851, so this pair could fall to the support level of 1.6766. However, caution should be exercised when placing sell orders, as the GBP/USD could perform a bullish rebound at current levels and go up to the resistance level of 1.7000. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


gbpusddaily.png


H4 chart: The GBP/USD has found support in the bullish trend line nearby to the support level of 1.6822. For now, this pair remains above the 200-day moving average, though the GBP/USD is approaching this level. However, if the pair manages to make a breakout at the l 1.6822 level, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6785. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.


gbpusdh4.png


H1 chart: This pair has consolidated below the 200 SMA and the resistance level of 1.6850. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6800, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6750, which would strengthen the current bearish outlook. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.


gbpusdh1.png


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6850.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 13, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYM30.png


Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range. Spotlight is on 12:30 GMT U.S. April retail sales data (forecast +0.4%). USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 5.34% to 12.23) as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 advanced to all-time highs overnight (S&P 500 hit record-high 1,897.13 before closing up 0.97% at 1,896.65) on prospect of continued policy accommodation by G3 central banks, while Moscow repeated calls for talks between pro-Russian separatists and Kiev to solve Ukraine's crisis after Sunday's secession referendum. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales. Yen crosses were vulnerable to 05:30 GMT China April industrial output, retail sales and fixed assets investment data.


Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from the oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.55 and the second target at 102.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.95. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.85. The pivot point is at 102.05.


Resistance levels:

102.55

102.70

103


Support levels:

101.95

101.85

101.55


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 13, 2014 Trend News

eurdauly.jpg


In March, the failure of the bulls to fix above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure to form a bearish leg towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.


At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.


Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within a consolidation zone roughly between 1.3800 and 1.3890.


Price level of 1.3800 has been offering support for few weeks until we had bearish breakdown on Friday when the market expressed a strong full-body bearish daily candlestick.


The last bullish breakout above 1.3880 topped at 1.3950 (Notice the most recent top established around 1.3965) showing bearish domination of the market which formed another bearish leg. Thus, a double-top reversal pattern is being established with neckline located at 1.3700.


On Friday, the bears produced quite strong bearish reaction that broke-down 1.3800 recording a daily low around 1.3745. This indicates dominant bearish momentum with high probability to achieve the reversal pattern.


eur4h.jpg


Previously, the depicted uptrend line (the blue trendline) came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3880.


Finally, the last bottom established around 1.3810 could achieve higher value above 1.3880. The bulls topped at 1.3950. However, these levels corresponded to the upper limit of the ongoing bullish channel which applied significant bearish reaction.


A strong corrective movement towards 1.3850 and 1.3800 was executed immediately as expected. This led again towards 1.3770 and cleared the way towards 1.3690 ( previous prominent bottom ).


For the bulls, the price zone of 1.3710 - 1.3670 remains the nearest demand level for them to initiate a bullish corrective movement towards 1.3740.


This price zone should be watched for a possible buy position with stop loss as daily closure below 1.3680.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 13, 2014 Trend News

gbpdaillyy.jpg


Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, the GBP/USD pair found solid resistance that provided enough supply for two months until bullish breakout took place on May 1st.


The recent lows at 1.6465 and 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.


The daily chart shows successive bullish breakouts expressed above 1.6850 (the upper limit of a previous congestion zone), then above 1.6930 (the upper limit of the ongoing bullish wedge). The bullish momentum wasn't strong enough to allow the bullish breakout to pursue towards further targets. Instead, this breakout lost its bullish momentum during the last three days of consolidation as depicted on the chart.


Price levels around 1.6990 provided evident rejection. This paused the ongoing bullish momentum (Pay attention to the last three daily candlesticks including Friday).


The lower limit of the bullish WEDGE was broken down on Friday showing a full-body bearish daily candlestick. Yesterday, the bears applied bearish pressure at retesting of 1.6900 ( backside of the broken wedge ). This enhances the bearish pull-back towards 1.6767 in the medium-term.


gb4h.jpg

As long as the ascending bottoms established at the uptrend around 1.6675, 1.6775, and 1.6825 remain intact, the market will keep its bullish momentum.


The bulls managed to record a higher value above the recent one at 1.6900. However, the ongoing market demand has been fulfilled around 1.6990 which led to price decline again.


A bearish impulse is taking place now towards 1.6820-1.6775 thus forming the right shoulder of a possible Head and Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.6830-1.6810.


Price action should be watched around necklone to determine if the ongoing bearish momentum is going to be contained above 1.6800 again or the reversal wedge pattern would apply enough bearish pressure to confirm the ongoing reversal pattern.


Projection targets of this pattern extends down to 1.6775, 1.6720 and 1.6690.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 13, 2014 Trend News

caddaily.jpgcad4h.jpg


The chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20. The bears took advantage and pushed the pair towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart).


Although previous daily closure below 1.0920 took place, it didn't take long time to get a bullish engulfing daily candlestick as a bullish reaction the next day pushed the pair again towards 1.1000.


On the other hand, in the 4H chart, the price zone of 1.0995-1.1045 (38.2% Fibonacci of the most recent bearish swing) was expected to provide a valid sell entry and it did.


The previously suggested bearish position taken at 1.0995 achieved its full projection target by hitting 61.8% Fibonacci level on the daily chart around 1.0830.


On Friday, price zone of 1.0875-1.0830 (extending down to 61.8% Fibonacci level and the lower limit of the ongoing movement ) provided significant bullish pressure strong enough to invalidate our SELL position.


The market has shown significant bullish recovery around 1.0830 (bullish engulfing daily candlestick) aiming to push towards 1.0910-1.0950 and probably 1.0980 where 38.2% Fibonacci level is located on the 4H chart.


Bearish positions can be taken again at the price zone of 1.0940-1.0950. It's the most recent resistance zone that comes to meet the pair. Bearish targets are estimated to be located at 1.0910 and 1.0950 initially. SL should be located slightly above 1.1000.


The USD/CAD pair will probably establish a sideway consolidation zone between 1.0940-1.0830 for sometime before breakout takes place.


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Gold analysis for May 13, 2014 Trend News

golddaily13.png


goldh413.png


Overview
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upward, the price tested the level of 1,303.58 on volume just above the average according to the daily chart. As you can see in the chart, our support level is held at 1,277.00 successfully, and that caused price to start upward movement and test the level of 1,303.58. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe weak supply on the average volume, which is a sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential end of bearish corrective phase and i got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,288.00. I found potential resistance level at the price of 1,304.00 (swing low). If the price breaks the level of 1,304.00 on higher volume, we may see possible tetsting the level of 1,315.00 (previous swing high).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,302.22


R2: 1,307.32


R3: 1,315.57


Support levels:


S1: 1,285.72


S2: 1,280.62


S3: 1,272.37


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term selling since our support level at the price of 1,277.00 held successfully


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 13, 2014 Trend News

USDCHFM30.png


Overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-month high at 0.8881 on Monday. It is underpinned by the franc sales on rising EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart is positive-biased as five-day moving average staged bullish crossover against 15-day MA, MACD and stochastics are bullish.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8955 and the second target at 0.8930. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8830. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8800. The pivot point is at 0.8850.


Resistance levels:

0.8955

0.8930

0.89


Support levels:

0.8830

0.88

0.8775


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 13, 2014 Trend News

NZDUSDM30.png


Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to range-trade. It is supported by the Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment. But NZD/USD upside is limited by the continued impact from RBNZ Gov. Wheeler's comment last week that a high Kiwi exchange rate in face of weakening fundamentals may prompt RBNZ to intervene to sell NZD and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is still negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought zone, MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8595. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8545. The pivot point stands at 0.8670. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8710 and the second target at 0.8745.


Resistance levels:

0.8710

0.8745

0.8780


Support levels:

0.8595

0.8545

0.8525


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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for May 13, 2014 Trend News

GBPJPYM30.png


Overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. This movement is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 171.90. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.60. The pivot point stands at 172.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173 and the second target at 173.30.


Resistance levels:

173

173.30

173.50


Support levels:

171.90

171.60

171.40


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EUR/NZD analysis for May 13, 2014 Trend News

eurnzddaily13.png


eurnzdh413.png


Overview:


Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5847 on volume above the average according to the 4H timeframe. We can observe weak demand on volume below the averate according to the daily chart (Monday bar). Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6122 held successfully and that caused price to go down. The price tested our support level at 1.5865 and if the price breaks that level on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1.5830, 15765. Be careful with buying and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5978


R2: 1.5989


R3: 1.6007


Support levels:


S1: 1.5942


S2 : 1.5931


S3: 1.5913


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Daily analysis of for Silver May 13, 2014 Trend News

silver_13-5.png


Overview
According to out last week expectations, Silver would take an upward move after its rebound from the Support level of 18.90. Currently, it is testing the Resistance level of 19.50 trying to break it through to continue its bullish move. More buy-signals would be provided in case of closing 4H above this Resistance level with first target few pips below the Resistance level of 19.75, then we should wait for closing above this Resistance level too to get more bullish signals. Therefore, presently we recommend waiting till breaking the Resistance level of 19.50 before decision making. But as the price is trading below the Resistance level it cancels the first scenario.


Resistance and support levels:

R3 (20.00), R2 (19.75), R1 (19.50), S1 (19.20), S2 (18.90), S3(18.70)




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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 13, 2014 Trend News

gbpjpy_13-5.png


Overview
From today's H4 chart, yesterday's closing below the resistance level of 172.75 gave the price an opportunity for a bearish move. As shown in on the attached chart, the price is trying to continue its bearish move but it will hit the strong Support area of the Support level of 172.00 trying to break it through. In that case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals, and it opens the way towards the second support level of166.25, as first target, and then the price should test the support level of 172.00 to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 172.00, it cancels the first scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.00), R2 (173.50), R1 (172.75), S1 (172.00), S2 (171.50), S3 (171.00).


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Technical analysis of Silver for May 13, 2014 Trend News

xagusd13052014.jpg


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Silver has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick chart pattern right at the trend line support around sub $19.00 levels as seen here. At the moment, the metal is consolidating gains and is expected to rally further to take out $20.00/40 levels from here on. This event would confirm that bulls are here to stay. Recommendations for now is to book some profits and remain long, risk is below $18.40/50.


2. Support is seen at $18.90, followed by $18.75, $18.40.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at $19.90/20.00, followed by $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Silver needs to break ahead of $20.00 and $20.40/50 levels to confirm further bullish setup. A drop below $18.90 would be extremely bearish for the metal though.


Trading recommendations:


Take some profits and remain long, stop below $18.40/50, target is open.


Good luck!


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 13, 2014 Trend News

2014-05-13-EURNZD-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6179


R2: 1.6059


R1: 1.5990


Current spot: 1.5928


S1: 1.5920


S2: 1.5860


S3: 1.5820


Technical summary:
We are locked in a range, which is best described as "no man's land". As the underlying downtrend still has not been reversed, we will keep looking for a clues of a continuation lower towards 1.5765 and possibly even towards 1.5653. That said the rally of the 1.5860 low could be the start of a new uptrend, but to confirm that outcome a break above minor resistance at 1.6179 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6285 is needed. A break above 1.6285 will call for a new rally towards 1.6787 and higher.


Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR as our stop and reverse order was hit at 1.6125 and we have placed our stop at 1.5865. Only buy EUR upon a break above resistance at 1.6179 with the same stop.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 13, 2014 Trend News

1399972172_2014-05-13-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 141.57


R2: 141.10


R1: 140.95


Current spot: 140.73


S1: 140.50


S2: 140.13


S3: 139.84


Technical summary:
Since the 139.84 low a simple zig-zag correction has unfolded. This correction should soon end for renewed downside pressure towards 139.84 and lower towards 137.01. Short-term break below minor support at 140.13 would confirm that the correction is over.


In longer term, we are still looking for a much deeper correction of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69 towards the ideal target at 126.00.


Trading recommendation:
Our sell order at 140.95 was exactly hit and we are now short EUR and will place stop at 141.60. If you are not shot EUR yet, then sell here or upon a break below 140.13 with the same stop at 141.60.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 13, 2014 Trend News

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Review :



  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

  • The first resistance of GBP/USD pair is projected at the level of 0.8921 today.

  • The second resistance had already fixed at 0.8982.

  • The area of 0.8980 / 0.9820 is a useful spot to sell in the long term this week.

  • We expect a range of 63 pips on May 13, 2014. And 63 pips would make a profit of 94 pips.

  • The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is:0,8787.

  • Volatility:149,38. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility


Weekly technical levels :


Date:13/05/2014


Pair:USD/CHF



  • Resistance 3:0.9091

  • Resistance 2:0.8982

  • Resistance 1:0.8921

  • Pivot point:0.8812

  • Support 1:0.8751

  • Support 2:0.8642

  • Support 3:0.8581


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Technical analysis of Gold for May 13, 2014 Trend News

xauusd13052014.jpg


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. Gold has produced a bullish engulfing candlestick chart pattern by bouncing off the trend line support around $1,280.00 levels as seen here. This indicates that bulls are in control for now and dips could be bought till prices are above $1,280.00 levels.Minimum upside target seen from here is the $1,330.00 levels. Recommendations are to remain long for now, risk remains below $1,270.00.


2. Support is seen at $1,270.00 levels, followed by $1,230.00/40.00 and lower while resistance is at $,330.00, followed by $1,388.00 and higher respectively.


3. The structure indicates that Gold should take out at least $1,330.00 levels to confirm bulls are going to remain in control. On the flip side, a break below $1,270.00 would be extremely bearish for the metal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $1,270.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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#USDX Technical analysis for May 13, 2014 Trend News

TThe Dollar index made a small pull back yesterday only to come back up to reach its recent highs. The Dollar index could be forming a bullish flag but this flag is being formed just below the important resistance of the 80 level. This can be seen in the chart below.


usdx.jpg

The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the broken trend line resistance. However it is below the blue rectangle resistance area. A rejection at current levels could bring the index back at 79.50. A break out above 80 will push the index towards 80.60.


usdxd.jpg

The daily trend remains bearish as price has not broken any previous important high. Bulls are trying to break above the Ichimoku cloud at 80-80.40. This is a very important resistance. If bulls manage to break above this important level, then a trend reversal on a daily basis will have been confirmed. A trend reversal will push the index towards 83-84. Support at 78.70 ust hold for this scenario to come true.


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Gold Technical analysis for May 13, 2014 Trend News

Gold price remains above critical support of $1,270-75 but lacks the strength to break above short-term resistance of $1,315. Price has pulled back after trying to move above $1,300. Gold price has moved below Ichimoku cloud again and this is not a good sign for bulls. The only good thing for bulls is the fact that we do not see many sellers pushing the price below $1,275.


goldh4.jpg

Gold price is making a pull back after spiking yesterday at $1,304. This pullback should not break below $1,275. If it breaks below that level, then we should be bearish targeting $1,250-$1,200. As long as support holds, we should be bullish with $1,330 as first target. A conservative trader could wait for Gold to show signs of strength before buying. Such a sign of strength will be the break above $1,305 and could add to long positions when price breaks above $1,315.


goldd.jpg

As long as we do not see a daily close below $1,275 or an intraday move below $1,268 we remain short-term bullish waiting for wave C to end near the 61.8% retracement.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 13, 2014 Trend News

eurjpy13052014.jpg


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be bouncing off the support region at 140.00 levels as expected. At the moment, the pair is trading close to 141.00 levels; probably bulls are back in control. Recommendations to initiate long positions on dips, risk remains at 139.50 levels. A break of 143.00 levels should prove to be extremely bullish and also confirm that bulls maybe poised to print fresh highs.


2. Support is at 140.00, followed by 138.50, 136.00 and lower while resistance is at 142.50/143.00, followed by 144.00 and 145.50 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY bulls could be bought till prices are above 140.00 levels. A break below 140.00 consistently could initiate a lager correction though.


Trading recommendations:


Buy on dips close to 140.30/50, stop at 139.50, target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 13, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 13/05/2014 09:40 CET


The market has hit the anticipated resistance level in the territory of previous wave 4 and now is in the critical level to confirm or invalidate the count. The supply zone between the levels of 140.97 - 141.06 should provide the resistance now and any breakout higher above this level will invalidate the main green impulsive count, making alternate green count the correct one. That would mean the overall impulsive wave development is even more bearish but the correction for wave alt.2 green might go slightly higher to the level of 141.41 and then downward trend should resume. For more immediate bearish progression to occur the market needs to fail at the current level and break the intraday support at the level of 140.50 in impulsive fashion. If that happens, next support to keep an eye on is the swing low at the level of 139.90.


Support/Resistance:


142.27 - Wave 2 red high


141.35 - WR1


140.96 - 141.06 - Supply Zone


140.02 - Key Level


140.61 - Weekly Pivot


140.50 - Intraday Support


139.90 - Wave (iii) green low


139.25 - Wave 5 red target


Trading recommendations:


Swing traders should still keep short positions open as the current impulsive wave progression to the downside has not been finished yet. Nevertheless, the current level is good to add to the existing open sell orders with a SL above 142.41 and TP open for now. Another level worth of consideration for both types of traders is the level of 139.88 with SL above the level of 140.51 and TP at the level of 139.25 with a possible downside extension.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 13, 2014 Trend News

gbpchf13052014.jpg


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/CHF pair has hit major resistance levels at 1.4960/70 lately, as seen here. The pair should potentially resume a meaningful pullback from current levels towards mid 1.4600's now. Recommendations are to remain flat for now and wait for the pullback to complete before a bullish reversal takes place.


2. Support is seen at 1.4780, followed by 1.4630, 1.4550/1.4450 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.5120 respectively.


3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF might potentially give a meaningful retracement from current levels before resuming the rally. Please also note that a fall below 1.4600 levels would be extremely bearish for the pair and would continue to drift further.


Trade recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Aggressive setup would be to initiate short positions, stop above 1.5100, target is 1.4660/50.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of USD/SGD for May 13, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.2570 levels. Recently, the US dollar became stronger and this pair took u turn from 1.243 level. It took the support at its parallel weekly support at 1.2426. From previous 1-month the pair is struggling to cross above the weekly 50SMA at 1.2583 level. On the down side, if the pair breaks the support at 1.2426, it is likely to drift all the way to 1.2317 and 1.23 levels. The break below 1.23 major cracks is seen to take place at 1.2130 levels. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance at 1.2495 (last weeks high). In case it is crossed, we will see 1.2555, 1.2571 and 1.258 levels.


USDSGDWeekly.png

Weekly key support at 1.2426, resistance at 1.2495


For the month, the pair is trading in a buy on dips strategy from the cmp or even dip. The daily momentum indicators are giving a buy call for this pair. Traders can buy above 1.2495 for targets 1.256 (50daily SMA) and 1.257 levels. The key reversal is seen to take place when the pair crosses the 1.257 so it can fly up to 1.2626 levels easily.


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GBP/USD medium-term forecast and intraday recommendations for May 13, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD
The pair has been in an uptrend from 1.6465 levels. It completed its extended legs at 1.70 levels. The weekly momentum indicators are giving the selling signs. The weekly key level was placed at 1.6832. A break below this level would ring the bells for sellers and the pair is likely to drift towards inital targets at 1.68 and 1.6763 levels. 1.666 is the key support level, below 1.6465 is an open target. The weekly momentum indicates the sell on rally.


Weekly key level- 1.6832 support, 1.70 resistance


Monthly key level- 1.666 support, 1.704 resistance


GBPUSDWeekly.png

For the week of May 13-16, the upside resistance was placed at 1.3906 levels (yesterday's high). Currently, the pair is taking support at the upside breakout at the level of 1.682 (previous swing high). This is the key level for bulls to hold below, 1.6782 is the initial target later 1.6763 and 1.6722 (50 daily SMA). The bears are seen to take charge below 1.682 level. To sell on rally is the best strategy.


GBPUSDDaily.png

Intraday


The pair is trading at 1.6871, it is holding its ground at 1.682. Trading above the level 1.682 is a bullish note. The hourly momentum indicators are giving a pullback sign from the current oversold levels. We expect the pair to come down towards the support levels placed at 1.685, 1.683 and 1.682 levels, then it is seen to move to 1.69 and 1.6938 levels. As per RSI in the h4 chart, the pair is in buy on dip strategy for the next 1-2 sessions. On the up side, the crucial resistance was placed at 1.69 and on the down side the key support level placed at 1.682 and 1.6792 levels.


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