Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6676

R2: 1.6625

R1: 1.6565

Current Spot: 1.6478

S1: 1.6409

S2: 1.6383

S3: 1.6325

Technical summary:

We are not really getting anywhere as this pair trades sideways. The big question is, of cause, whether this is bottom-consolidation and soon we will see a break above resistance at 1.6565 as the first good indication, that this wave ii is finally over and wave iii higher is developing for a rally higher towards 1.7274 followed by 1.7780 as the next major target. Or is this just another consolidation before the next push lower towards the invalidation point at 1.6325. If we at any time break below 1.6325, my preferred count will be invalidated and the alternate downward count steps up to be the preferred count. The alternate count calls for a continuation lower towards 1.6117 before the c-wave of an expanded flat correction finally comes to the end and wave iii higher can develop.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR with a stop at 1.6320. If you are not long in EUR, wait for buying EUR upon a break above 1.6565 with the same stop at 1.6320.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 134.48

R2: 134.14

R1: 133.81

Current Spot: 133.27

S1: 132.72

S2: 132.35

S3: 131.95

Technical summary:

This pair is working its way higher towards the perfect target at 134.48 after we have begun the thrust out of the triangle consolidation. We will likely see a minor top at 134.14 for a correction towards 133.81, just follow the next rally higher to the ideal target at 134.48. Once at 134.48 we should expect a new correction towards 132.72 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 138.62. As we are in an impulsive wave higher, we should expect, that corrections will tend to be relatively small.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 130.75 and move your stop higher to 132.30. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 132.72 with the same stop at 132.30.

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#USDX Analysis for September 10, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index fell within our target of 82-81.80 as mentioned in yesterday's post. The downward correction could be over now as prices retraced 50% of the entire rise from 80.76.

The Dollar Index is very possible to have completed 5 waves from the low upwards, although the formation is not perfect. The decline has made a low at the 50% retracement of the entire upward move from 80.76 to 82.67. This is scenario implies that if prices start again to move upwards in an impulsive pattern, then we can see a new high soon as a part of a new wave structure. The decline, however, shows a very interesting pattern. The decline as shown in the 1-hour chart looks like another 5 wave downward move. Therefore, the correction may only have finished wave A downwards and we can see an ascending wave B and a descending wave C to complete the correction from 82.67.

The scenarios are equally possible as the decline is impulsive and this means further downwside pressures are to be expected. We could see an upward bounce towards 82.20-30 as the part of wave B corection and then a new low with wave C towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, if prices manage to break above 82.55, this scenario will decrease chances. Because of the wave scenarios are equally possible and the current price action shows possibility of a bounce we are cautiously bullish as long as prices trade above 81.71. Now, at 81,87, we could enter half exposure than normal long and wait for a new high above 82.67 to add to our positions. This way, in case of a correction, it is not over and a new low towards the 61.8% retracement is made, we would risk less than usually.

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