Daily analysis of major pairs for December 25, 2014 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: This pair still maintains the bearish outlook on it. The price is below the resistance line at 1.2200, going towards the support line at 1.2150 (which is our ultimate target). There is currently no big momentum in the market, but when momentum does return to the market, the price would go further downwards.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is now consolidating in the context of a downtrend, being above the support level at 0.9850. The ultimate target remains at the resistance level of 0.9900, though there are no important fundamental figures today.

GBP/USD: After testing the accumulation territory at 1.5500, the Cable bounced upwards, reaching the distribution territory at 1.5550. It is possible that the Cable may go above that distribution territory a little, but the present upwards bounce is a great opportunity to sell short when things rally in the context of a bearish outlook.

USD/JPY: This is a bull market. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. The bullish outlook is very strong and there is a high probability that when momentum returns to the market, it would help push the price further upwards. The ultimate target is at the supply level at 121.00.

EUR/JPY: After a bullish attempt on Monday, this market has been trading sideways. However, the bias is already bullish and there could be a breakout to the upside soon. The upwards breakout may enable the price to challenge the supply zone at 147.50 – courtesy of the novel Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.

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Silver daily analysis for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Yesterday the metal failed to break the support level of 15.50 to bounce again from it and to trade between this rupport level and below the sesistance level of 16.00. Currently, the metal must retest the resistance level of 16.00 again, therefore, we should wait for closing above to continue its upward trend move. Given that the metal has managed to close H4 above today, it gives us a good opportunity for more bullish signals above it with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 16.50, then the second target at 16.75, after breaking this support level. But as long as silver is trading below 16.00, waiting would be preferred in that case and it cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (16.75), R2 (16.50), R1 (16.00), S1 (15.70), S2 (15.40), S3 (15.00).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Proceeding from the today's H4 chart, the pair is still trading between the support level of 186.70 and the resistance level of 187.70 and currently the pair fails again to break the resistance level. If the pair breaks it to take an upward movement, it might continue its bullish trend and we will get a good opportunity to buy again above the resistance level of 187.70 untill the H4 closure above the resistance level of 188.50 as a target level. Then we should wait for breaking this resistance level to continue the upward move and open the way towards the resistance level of 189.30. On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the resistance level of 187.70 and bounces from it, it may take a downward trend, which will enable the support level of 186.70 again. Therefore, we suggest waiting for the next closure before making a decision.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (189.30), R2 (188.50), R1 (187.70), S1 (186.70), S2 (185.80), S3 (185.00).

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Gold analysis for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,177.00. We are facing very low activity on the market due to the holidays. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.172.00 has been held successfully, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe selling climax in the background and then sideways. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities near the lows. Any larger demand in a high volume may confirm further bullish phase. According to the daily time frame, we can observe neutral bar in a very low volume.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,183.21

R2: 1,186.15

R3: 1,190.93

Support levels:

S1: 1,173.65

S2: 1,170.71

S3: 1,165.93

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading sideways around the price of 1.5800. According to the daily time frame, we got supply in a volume below the average, which caused price to continue with upward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5900 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6000. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we saw a lack of supply around the price of 1.5745. We are waiting for a larger activity on the market and stronger price action.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5830

R2: 1.5854

R3: 1.5891

Support levels:

S1: 1.5755

S2: 1.5731

S3: 1.5693

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we have a lack of supply around the level of 1.5750.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is still testing the back side of the resistance line, which is supported around 1.5320 levels. A bullish bounce here could push prices towards 1.5525 levels and higher. Immediate support is seen at 1.5285 (interim), followed by 1.5075, 1.5000 and 1.4950 while resistance is seen at 1.5450/75 and 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to remain long from earlier positions, risk at break even. Bulls should remain in control till prices remain above 1.5100 levels. A push above 1.5400 levels would confirm that the pair is headed towards fresh highs in the coming sessions to come.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at break even levels, target is open.

Good luck!

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Silver technical analysis for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver bounced off the $15.50 mark earlier and retested the same level again on December 22, before bouncing back. Please note that the metal has remained broadly between $15.50 and $16.20 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.50 (interim), followed by $14.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.20, followed by $17.25, $17.40/50, $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. As depicted here, the metal might be forming a right shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulder reversal around $15.50 levels. Bulls should remain in control, untill prices remain comfortably above $14.50 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at $14.50, target is open.

Good luck!

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Gold technical analysis for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has dropped to $1,170.00 levels, as was expected and discussed earlier. The metal is trading at $1,176.00 levels for now and might be preparing to stage a rally from here on. Please note that Fibonacci 0.618 support is also around the current price action. A bullish rally from here would bring back bulls under control and extend up to at least $1,255.00 levels. It is recommended to hold long positions and also look to add further at the current levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,160.00/65.00 levels, followed by $1,140.00, $1,130 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,220.00/25.00, followed by $1,235.00, $1,255.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control untill prices remain above $1,140.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop below $1,150.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.

The price zone of 1.5890-1.5870 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days. However, bears quickly managed to push lower.

Failure of the market to defend the price zone of 1.5890-1.5900 allowed bears to push towards the support level located around 1.5550 where recent congestion zone was established above.

Recently, the market failed to express bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (upper limit of the daily bearish channel). Instead, extensive bearish breakout was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown was successfully executed yesterday).

Note that DAILY fixation below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 renders the current consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with potential projected target at 1.5310 (similarto what happened back in October 2014).

Key level for the current week's movement is 1.5600. Persistence below it signals bearish tendency on the market and vice is versa.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern and the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel were established.

Recently, the daily fixation below 1.2360 (the lower limit of the depicted broken congestion zone) extended the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2250.

However, after bears could fixate below 1.2360, evident bullish recovery was expressed so that bulls could reach the price level of 1.2560 few days later.

Bearish pressure that originated off 1.2560 (the upper limit of the movement channel) led to a breakdown of the price level of 1.2250 which supported the EUR/USD pair for a long time.

For intraday traders, the price level of 1.2150 remains a significant Fibonacci expansion level. Intraday DEMAND will probably be present at retesting.

Trade Recommendations :

As anticipated, risky traders could have benefited from the bearish breakout below 1.2250. This breakout exposes potential projection target roughly located around 1.2100.

Conservative traders should be looking for SHORT positions. Best low-risk entries may be taken around 1.2260 (the latest broken bottom).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical Summary:

We are still looking for a break above the resistance at 1.5881 as a confirmation that a bottom is in the place at 1.5724 for a rally towards at least 1.6163. As long as the resistance at 1.5881 protects the upside, there is still a risk of decline below the support at 1.5643 and if it happens, a new decline to 1.5398 and, most likely, below it should be expected. For now, we just have to watch, which way it will break, but we do favor the upside.

Trading Recommendation:

We will buy EUR upon a break above 1.5881 with stop placed at 1.5720.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Two weeks ago, the GBP/USD pair found intraday DEMAND around 1.5550 where many lows were previously established back in November.

Moreover, previous multiple bottoms were established above 1.5550-1.5580, rendering it a prominent DEMAND zone.

The DAILY outlook looked quite bullish while bulls were defending the lower limit of the consolidation range around 1.5550 for many successive weeks. However, a bearish breakout was expressed yesterday.

The bears have already reached down to 1.5485. Daily closure confirmed the bearish breakout.

Now we are seeing a bearish flag pattern similar to what happened back in October provided that the market does not reach above 1.5550 (recent SUPPLY level).

Projection target would be located around the price level of 1.5350.

A consolidation movement ranging between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 took place.

It represented the state of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.

As anticipated, the bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Potential projection target for this range breakout pattern should be located around 1.5330-1.5350.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the prominent SUPPLY zone located around 1.5660 for a low-risk SHORT position.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 24 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical Summary:

We are still looking for a rally slightly higher to 148.23 to end wave x and then we should see the next decline towards 142.06. If, however, the resistance at 148.23 is broken the corrective pattern changes to a flat correction, that would call for a rally to 149.78 before we should expect the next move lower. We are in a small wave (ii) correction and once this correction is over, new highs above 149.78 should be seen.

Trading Recommendation:

We long EUR from 147.05 with stop placed at 145.90. We will move stop higher to 146.40 once minor resistance at 147.15 is broken, and keep our take profit at 148.05

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 24/12/2014 08:10 CET

The wave progression is still trying to develop the last stages of a complex corrective cycle in wave Y. Since the last week, the range zone between the levels of 1.1558 and 1.1664 has been well respected. The suggested pattern of a complex corrective cycle in the overall wave 4 purple looks like a double three correction with a triangle pattern as the last in the progression. The recent leg down labeled as the wave e green of wave 4 purple might be its last leg down. A long-awaited upside breakout might be just about to happen. Only a breakout below the level of 1.1500 would invalidate this scenario. Please notice that the mid- and longer-term bias are bullish, and new highs are expected.

Support/ Resistance:

1.1733 - WR2

1.1672 - WR1

1.1645 - Intraday Resistance

1.1610 - Weekly Pivot

1.1558 - Intraday Support

1.1546 - WS1

1.1500 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

The corrective cycle in wave Y brown has not been completed yet as there is one more wave missing to the downside. The Traders should consider opening only buy orders from the current price levels with SL below the level of 1.1558 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.

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