Gold analysis for December 16, 2013 Trend News

Price action in Gold has not made things any clearer with the current wave structure. There are two very possible scenarios still very possible and valid. The first scenario implies that wave 5 is not over yet and we should expect a new lower low towards 1,180-1,200. The second scenario implies that the decline from 1,360 is over and the upward correction still valid. This wave count is shown with red letters below.

The breaking below 1,220-1,210 will increase the chances of the first scenario. If prices continue to trade above 1,220-1,210, it will put the basis for another leg up towards 1,275-1,300. The trend is not clear and that is why we should respect if any important price level is broken. Therefore, bulls have more chances as long as prices trade above 1,220-1,210.

The daily chart continues to show that the longer-term trend is downward. The important high is at 1,268 in the short term and 1,360 in the longer term. Our longer term view remains bearish with 1,140-1,100 as target from the Head-and-Shoulders pattern.

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Silver faces short-term resistance at 20.50 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal pulled back from the 0.382 fibonacci resistance at 20.40/50 levels for now. Though further upside cannot be ruled out completely, 21.50 would be the level to watch for major resistance as it is the 0.618 fibonacci retracement. Also, the channel line resistance would be passing through 21.50 in 1-2 days time. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch reaction at 21.50 before committing short positions. Resistance is spread through 21.50, 22.00, 23.00 and 25.00; while support is fixed at sub 18.00 levels respectively. On the flip side, if 19.00 level is broken now; it would be confirmed that the metal is targeting 17.50 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.

Good luck!

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Gold bearish below 1,270.00. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

As depicted here, the recent rally from 1,211.00 levels last week was reversed from 1,268/69 levels; which were past support turned resistance. Till the time prices are below 1,270/75 levels, it is recommended to refrain from buying. Also please note that the down channel line is still intact and we need to see a clear breakout above 1,300.00 levels to rule out further downside. Support is fixed at 1,210.00 and 1,180.00 levels; while resistance is line up around 1,300.00 levels, followed by 1,350.00 and 1,440.00 respectively. However, a push through 1,300.00 levels and subsequently 1,350.00 would enforce a trend reversal and change our trading strategy.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.

Good luck!

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EURJPY resistance is at 142.90/143.00. Looking to initiate short positions again. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair stopped out last week and hit fresh highs at 142.80/90 levels, which had been expected. Since then, the pair has broken down the short-term trend line as depicted here. Support levels are spread through 141.00 levels, followed by 137.00, 134.00 and lower; while resistance is now fixed at 142.90/143.00 respectively. As seen here, the 0.618 fibonacci retracement is at 142.20 levels and it is recommended to initiate short positions if prices manage to reach that point. The risk would remain at 143.20 levels. A reversal from 142.20 levels would bring down prices to 140.00 levels initially, and 138.50 thereafter.

Trading recommendations:

Sell at 142.20, stop at 143.20, target is open.

Good luck!

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GBPCHF still at trend line support. Hold longs for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair could be said to be still testing the trend line support as depicted here, at 1.4450/1.4500 levels. It is recommended to hold on to long positions taken last week with risk at 1.4400. Support levels are spread through 1.4350 levels, followed by 1.4200 and 1.4000; while resistance is at 1.4700 levels (the fibonacci 0.618 retracement level); followed by 1.4900 levels respectively. The structure reveals that there is high probability of a pullback from the current levels (1.45) to 1.47/50, before the down swing could continue. We would be looking for opportunities to go short again between 1.4700/50 levels, if it reach them.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now, stop at 1.44 and target is at 1.47.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 16, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6779

R2: 1.6708

R1: 1.6658

Current Spot: 1.6622

S1: 1.6590

S2: 1.6556

S3: 1.6516

Technical summary:

We are still looking for the fianl rally in green wave v towards 1.6869 to end the leading diagonal. Once green wave v is in place we should see a correction towards 1.6556 before a new impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.7239.

Short term we are looking for support at 1.6590 protecting the downside for a break above 1.6658 confirming the rally towards 1.6869. Only an unexpected direct break below 1.6556 will invalidate our bullish call and add considerable downside pressure.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6520. Keep your stop at 1.6550 and take profit at 1.6850.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 16, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.15

R2: 141.93

R1: 141.73

Current Spot: 141.46

S1: 141.20

S2: 141.91

S3: 140.79

Technical summary:

With the break below 142.15 we had the first strong indication, that an important top is in place at 142.83. However, we still need a break below 140.91 to confirm, that the top of wave v of 5 is in place and that a major correction towards at least 124.95 is developing.

In the short term we will be looking for a move closer to 140.91 (likely not a break below in the first attempt) followed by a correction higher towards 142.15, form where we should see renewed downside pressure and this time a clear break below important support at 140.91.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short from 142.12. Place stop at 141.70 and take profit at 141.12. Re-sell EUR at 142.15 and place stop at 142.90.

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