GBP/CHF breaks resistance at the 1.4390/1.44 levels; further upside seen after a pullback Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair has been set up well for an extended rally towards the 1.5 level and higher from here on. Immediate resistance at the 1.4390/1.44 levels has been breached yesterday. It is expected, that the pair would pull back towards the 1.4270/75 levels now, before continuing to rally further up. It is recommended to remain long from earlier positions; and initiate fresh long positions after a pullback. Short-term resistance is seen at the 1.48 level, followed by a strong resistance at 1.5 and higher up. Support is strong at 1.4075 and lower. Bottom line: the pair is headed northwards, hence buying on dips now should be the trading strategy.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, buy on dips, stop below 1.4075 (shall revise stop soon), target open.

Good Luck!

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Dollar index near the end of the downward correction 22/7/2013 Trend News

The Dollar index continues its sideways grinding lower as part of the downard corrective move that started at 84.75. The recent downward move is corrective as implied by the overlapping pattern. There is no clear downward impulsive move here and we still believe that prices are heading towards 82.10-20 area near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Short-term trend remains bearish and our target is 82.10-20. Short-term resistance is found at 83.05 and short-term support is found at 82.20. We believe that soon this downward pattern will reverse to up first by breaking above 83.05 and then the last high at 83.45.

This expected break out will also break out of the sideways corrective channel signalling it is time for an upward move. The form and pattern of this move will be decisive if more upside is possible as we expect. We believe long-term trend is bullish as long as prices stay above 80. So entering long at this level using long-term stops is favorable. As our risk is 2.5 points where the potential is more than 6 points. Concluding, we remain neutral waiting for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to be reached. In the long term we are bullish.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 22, 2013 Trend News

Gold made a break out earlier today during the trading hours of the Asia session. As we had mentioned several times before in our previous posts, Gold was expected to make an upward break towards $1,320-40 to finish the corrective wave C that started at $1,208. The sideways pattern that was formed, gave us clear barriers of $1,273-1,291 that if broken prices would accelerate. Gold started its break out from Friday as it moved above $1,291 giving us a bullish signal.

Prices broke out of the wave 4 triangle as shown above and reached our first target of $1,322. $1,340 is a Fibonacci extension target that is very possible to be achieved but not necessary for the wave pattern to be complete. We can now say that the upward move from $1,208 is over and we will wait for any extension to complete. Breaking below $1,270 will confirm this upward move from $1,208 is over. We now turn to neutral in Gold as we think there is not much more upward potential here.

Prices are finally reaching the upper boundaries of the channel and we think its time for a top around $1,320-40 area. Next move expected is down to confirm the top. This will happen if prices break below $1,270. First worrying signal for bulls will come when prices fall below $1,300. Concluding, we were bullish in Gold from $1,215 and we had $1,340$ as a target. Now that prices have reached $1,322 we believe it is time to turn at least neutral waiting for a sell singal.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 22, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6726

R2: 1.6685

R1: 1.6623

Current Spot: 1.6578

S1: 1.6531

S2: 1.6507

S3: 1.6488

Technical overview:

The rally from 1.6558 to 1.6685 was a minor five wave rally, but it was a c-wave rally of a minor expanding flat correction and not the first wave of an impulsive rally. That means that resistance at 1.6685 protected the upside for a break below the important low at 1.6558, which forced us to reconsider the rally of the 1.6225 low. Instead of having a 1-2; 1-2 count, we have placed wave i from 1.6225 to 1.6798 and wave ii most likely ended with Friday low at 1.6427 (just below the 61.8% of wave i) and we will now be looking for wave iii higher towards 1.7353, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i. However, in the short term we need support at 1.6427 to protect the downside for a break above 1.6636, which would confirm that wave iii is developing. Only a break below 1.6427 will delay the upside for a decline closer to 1.6390 before higher again.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6550 was taken out for a small loss. We are looking for a new EUR-buying opportunity and will buy EUR at 1.6540 or upon a break above 1.6624 with a stop at 1.6420.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 22, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 132.78

R2: 132.27

R1: 131.84

Current Spot: 131.43

S1: 131.05

S2: 130.81

S3: 130.30

Technical overview:

After the break above the channel resistance line we are looking for a rally back towards the top at 133.81 in a flat correction, which would mark the b-wave and should be followed by the c-wave lower towards at least 124.96 and possibly lower. In the short term we would like to see minor support at 131.05 to protect the downside for a break above 131.84 and, more importantly, a break above 132.27, which confirms a continuation higher towards 132.59 and 132.78 before our ideal target at 133.81. That said, it should be remembered, that all conditions for the flat b-wave rally already has been fulfilled, so we will have to be aware of signs, that the b-wave should be over and the c-wave decline is ready to start.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.60 and will move our stop higher to 131.00. We will place our take profit at 133.25.

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