EUR/USD - Key fractal 1.3230 - for August 01, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The euro in the Asian session was trading at this level of 1.3276. The Fed said yesterday that persistently low inflation could hamper the economic expansion and pledged to keep buying $85 billion in bonds every month. This data originated that the euro has a strong bullish momentum towards 1.3336 area. On the other hand, we observe the Momentum Indicator that has a small space to touch the area of the moving average of the MACD. If it is likely, it supports a bounce that would reflect that the euro could bounce off the 1.3325 area, and if the Momentum Indicator MACD sharply falls it could be a good sell signal, which confirmed the closure would remain in daily graphs below the fractal of 1.3230. So we leave the following recommendation drawn on the graph.

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EUR/JPY H1 and H4 analysys for 01/08/2013 Trend News

General overview for 01/08/2013 11:30 CET:

Long time anticipated Bull Flag technical pattern target projection at 132.45 has been hit and price is now in reverse mode as there are some indications that a corrective wave (b) cycle might has been finished: price broken out below red channel trend line in five impulsive waves and now it is trying to test the channel line from the downside. Price is expected to fail here and continue lower in impulsive wave development and the first clue will be a break of longer time frame golden trend line.

Judging by the wave structure on H1 time frame it looks like the overall corrective cycle might get more complex here so please consider more whipsaws while trading the correction. Price is now on Weekly Pivot level area and Intraday Resistance zone @ 130.75 - 130.98 that had capped the rally. However, there is a possibility of a slight further advance to the 61% Fibo area if the Weekly Pivot level will get broken.

Support/Resistance:

132.72 - Swing High

131.90 - WR1

131.32 - 131.42 - 61%Fibo | SUPPLY ZONE |

130.98 - Weekly Pivot

130.75 - 130.98 - Intraday Resistance Zone

129.33 - Intraday Support level

129.23 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Selling the Weekly Pivot level at 131.98 with SL above 61% Fibo at 131.42 in anticipation of a new low to come produce a min. 5:1 R/R trade.

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#USDX Analysis for August 1, 2013 Trend News

The dollar index as we noted in yesterday's analysis was making an overlapping sideways move that was rejected at resistance. A new low was expected and finally delivered. Now the index is reversing higher breaking above the first short-term resistance level at 82. We need now to see a break above the high at 82.20 because from that high we see the new low.

Prices start to break out of the downward sloping trend channel and we think it is very possible to low is in. Prices seem that they are making a trend reversal as expected for so long as the downward move from 84.75 was looking more like a correction than an impulsive wave down. Short-term resistance is found at 82.20 and 82.35. Short-term support is found at 81.60.

The daily chart as shown above is giving us the first signals of a trend reversal. However today's candlestick will need to break above yesterday's red candlestick and manage to close above in order to have a confirmed break of the resistance. The low at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement is now important support that if broken, will push prices towards 81 and maybe 80.75.

Concluding we remain in our neutral to bullish stance. We expect 82.20 to be broken upwards together with the first short term resistance at 82.35. If prices pull back we could again enter long with yesterday's lows as stop. We believe the trend reversal is starting to take form.

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GBP/USD - Rebound Level at 1.51 For August 01, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The British pound remains under downward pressure. Yesterday in the afternoon, markets movements were muted before FOMC statement, which was clearly dovish, incorporating the risk of disinflation. After this data the pound recovered positions managing to reach the 1.5230 level, but we believe the weekly support level of 1.51 will offer much support; it could find a rebound that would take it to the level of 1.5280. In the medium term is a weakness of the British currency, as the indicators show a deeper fall of the pound to the level of 1.50, and further down to 1.47, in the coming months. However, in view that there is no bearish confirmation for the pair yet; it is more likely to seek levels of purchased in the daily supports.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 1, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6771

R2: 1.6723

R1: 1.6688

Current Spot: 1.6672

S1: 1.6634

S2: 1.6572

S3: 1.6543

Technical summary:

We only saw the minimum correction to 1.6572 before the next rally pushed above the top of red wave i and confirmed that red wave iii is developing. Ideally support at 1.6634 now will protect the downside for a break above 1.6722 indicating the next powerful rally higher towards at least 1.6882 and in the long term much higher towards 1.7326. However, if support at 1.6634 breaks, then we will have consider the rally of the 1.6572 low as part of an complex correction and look for a continuation down to at least 1.6572 and likely lower towards 1.6477 before red wave iii will be ready to take over.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6411 and will raise our stop to 1.6565. If you are not long EUR already, then buy a break above 1.6722 with the same stop at 1.6565.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 1, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 130.79

R2: 130.67

R1: 130.54

Current Spot: 130.41

S1: 130.24

S2: 129.93

S3: 129.33

Technical summary:

The blue wave ii correction turned out to be an expanded flat correction as we saw the low of wave b at 129.33 (below the low of wave a) and the high of wave c at 130.79 (above the top of wave a). As long as support at 129.93 and, more importantly, support at 129.33 protects the downside, the correction could be more complex, than we already has seen. However, at this point we do not expect a more complex correction and will be looking for signs that blue wave iii is developing. The first sign will be a break below 129.93 and confirmation upon a break below 129.33, which will indicate that blue wave iii is indeed developing. The first target for blue wave iii will be at 126.07, where blue wave iii will be 1.618 times blue wave i. After an expanded flat correction we should always expect an extended impulsive wave to follow. As said, the risk is a more complex wave ii correction, which will be the case if support at 129.93 protects the downside for a break above 130.79, which would call for a move higher towards 131.17 - 131.36, but that is not our preferred count at this point.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 129.55 and will keep our stop at 132.80 for now expecting to be able to lower it soon. If you are not short EUR already then sell a break below 129.93 with the same stop at 132.80.

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