Friday 20 June 2014

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Successive bottoms around 1.6465 and 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.


However, the bullish momentum wasn't strong enough to allow the bullish breakout above 1.7000 to pursue towards further targets. Instead, this previous breakout lost its bullish momentum showing successive lower highs that temporarily managed to breakdown the depicted uptrend line.


Again last week, the GBP/USD pair showed bullish recovery around 1.6690 which was followed by strong bullish pressure being applied.


This pushed the pair again towards retesting of 1.6980-1.7000 (prominent top established on May 6).


If the bears keep preventing any bullish breakout above 1.7000, the pair will have obvious targets around 1.6900 initially then 1.6850 to be followed (depicted on the 4H chart).


Note Monday's candlestick came as "an inverted hammer" closing within the previous candlestick's trading range despite the bullish spike above 1.7010.


This enhances the bearish side of the market at such prominent SUPPLY levels.


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This time the bears have failed to pause the ongoing bullish pressure at 1.6920 where previous bullish attempts were invalidated recently.


The bulls managed to re-fixate above the previously broken uptrend line. Moreover, they are challenging the recent top around 1.6970 - 1.7000 today.


Management of the bears to maintain the 4H fixation below this price zone suggests a bearish move towards 1.6850 - 1.6810 where 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci Levels are located.


On the other hand, 4H bullish fixation above 1.7000 will enable the bulls to reach 1.7090 and probably 1.7130 before bearish retracement can take place.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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The price zone 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.


Thus, a Double Top reversal pattern was established with a neckline located at 1.3700. This reversal pattern has already hit its projection levels.


On the other hand, we should highlight Thursday and Monday's bullish engulfing daily candlesticks which emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing 4H channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 ( Key-Level corresponding to previous prominent bottom ).


Thus, the EUR/USD bulls finally achieved bullish breakout above 1.3560 thus escaping the previous congestion zone between 1.3560 - 1.3480.


As expected, the pair visited the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3650 which corresponded to the breakout projection target as well.


Price action around 1.3660 came strong bearish exposing 1.3560 for retesting.


Multiple ascending bottoms were established around these levels during June that's why, bullish recovery may originate off these levels as long as the bulls keep defending 1.3500.


On the other hand, 4H fixation below 1.3550 would expose lower targets for retesting.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range.It is underpinned by the yen-funded funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment as U.S. stocks closed mostly higher overnight (S&P 500 hit record high 1959.87 before closing up 0.13% at 1959.48; DJIA up 0.09%, Nasdaq off 0.08%), helped by the Federal Reserve's commitment to low rates and Fed Chairwoman Yellen's comment Wednesday that she did not think the valuation of the stock market was outside historical norms. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.32 versus 80.41 early Thursday) as Fed's accommodative stance and weaker-than-expected 0.5% rise in Conference Board U.S. May leading index (versus forecast +0.6%) outweighed surprise rise in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 17.8 in June from 15.4 in May (versus forecast for drop to 13.3) and in-line 6,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 312,000 in week ended June 14 and positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.30 and the second target at 102.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.60. The pivot point is at 102.


Resistance levels:

102.30

102.45

102.74


Support levels:

101.70

101.60

101.45


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week low at 0.8909 on Thursday. Swiss National Bank on Thursday maintained the floor of CHF1.20 per euro and held its target range for the three-month London interbank offered rate at 0.0% to 0.25% as widely expected. USD/CHF is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment and franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day MA.


Trading recommendation:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8985 and the second target at 0.9. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8920. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8905. The pivot point is at 0.8945.


Resistance levels:

0.8985

0.9

0.9025


Support levels:

0.8920

0.8905

0.8875


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range after hitting six-week high at 0.8736 on Thursday. It is undermined by the weaker-than-expected New Zealand 1Q quarter-on-quarter GDP growth,Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and profit-taking on long-Kiwi positions before weekend. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the negative dollar sentiment, positive risk appetite, buoyant commodity prices and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8635. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.86. The pivot point stands at 0.8735. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8765 and the second target at 0.88.


Resistance levels:

0.8765

0.88

0.8845


Support levels:

0.8635

0.86

0.8560


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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is supported by the positive risk appetite and demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish.


Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.25 and the second target at 174.85. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 172.55. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.85. The pivot point is at 173.


Resistance levels:

174.25

174.85

175.35


Support levels:

172.55

171.85

171.15


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EUR/NZD analysis for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading sideways, around the price of 1.5620, we are still waiting for larger movement and larger volume. Since our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.5665 has got broken, we may see possible testing the level of 1.5335. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe bullish reaction on the selling climax. Anyway, reaction was not so strong, so buying still looks very risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities. If the price start with larger bullish movement, we got major resistance level around the price of 1.5750 (swing low like resistance).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5635


R2: 1.5657


R3: 1.5692


Support levels:


S1: 1.5565


S2: 1.5543


S3: 1.5508


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


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Gold analysis for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,321.31 on ultra high volume (buying climax). As you can see in the graph, the price has broke our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,305.00, so we may see possible testing the level of 1,334.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe demand on ultra high volume (buying climax), which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Be careful with buying since we may see potential bearish correction.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,321.60


R2: 1,332.40


R3: 1,349.90


Support levels:


S1: 1,288.60


S2: 1,275.80


S3: 1,258.30


Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying at this stage since we have got buying climax in the background.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.5677


R2: 1.5653


R1: 1.5631


Current spot: 1.5615


S1: 1.5598


S2: 1.5582


S3: 1.5557


Technical summary:


Not much new to add here. The expanded flat correction is still unfolding here and we are still looking for a move closer to 1.5697 before the final decline to 1.5447 is expected. In the short term we will ideally see minor support at 1.5598 protecting the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5631 that confirms the move higher towards 1.5697.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR at 1.5690 with our stop placed at 1.5720.


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#USDX Technical analysis for June 20, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in downtrend. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart and is making lower lows and lower highs. The triangle break down has pushed prices towards 80.25 and I believe that selling pressure is not over yet. I expect the index to move towards 80.


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Short-term support is found at 80.15 and short-term resistance is at 80.50. Important reversal level is the 80.70 price level. As long as we trade below that price, we remain in bearish trend targeting 80 and lower. A break above that price level will turn trend to bullish and will give me 81.50 as the first target.


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The Dollar index remains supported by the 38% retracement. If this support continues to hold, we could see a re-test of the 80.70 level. If support at the 38% retracement fails, I expect price to move below 80.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 139.63


R2: 139.25


R1: 138.90


Current spot: 138.70


S1: 138.60


S2: 138.34


S3: 137.96


Technical summary:


Resistance at the 50% corrective target at 138.90 still protects the upside. However, until we see a break below minor support at 138.41, a rally slightly higher towards the 61.8% corrective target at 139.18 can not be excluded. If however, support at 138.41 gives away for a decline we can say that wave ii is in place and wave iii lower towards 134.67 is expected.


Trading recommendation:


We sold EUR at 138.55 and our stop is placed at 139.55. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 138.90 or upon a break below 138.41 with the same stop.


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Gold technical analysis for June 20, 2014 Trend News

GGold price has reached yesterday our target area. Trend remains up and in early trading we see Gold price make a pull back below $1,310. Short-term support is found at $1,290 and $1,300. I believe the buying is not over in Gold but bulls should be very cautious and start thinking of taking profits.


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Short-term resistance is found at $1,320 and $1,333. Gold price is way above the Ichimoku cloud and has made a parabolic rise which is a sign of increased volatility and danger. The most probable outcome of this upward spike, is for Gold price to consolidate above $1,300 and then make a final upward move towards $1,330-40. Would I go long now. If I had no position I would prefer to wait fot a better pattern to emerge with a better risk reward ratio. If I was long I would choose to take partial profits and raise my stops.


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Trend remains up so I would not think yet of selling Gold. Gold could reach the upper triangle boundaries as wave E. This means that it can reach $1,330-40. So everything is pointing up in Gold price and there is no bearish sign. So I prefer to be neutral, take profits or remain long. Short positions will be taken into consideration only if Gold price reaches a strong resistance level like $1,330-40.


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:



  • The USD/CHF pair is going to set strong resistance at the level of 0.8996 and support at 0.8905.

  • The price is still moving between 0.8922 and 0.8960.

  • The USD/CHF pair has still been below 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels since last week in H4 chart.

  • As a result, the price has already formed the strong resistance at this level of 0.8996 and it is now approaching it in order to test it.



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  • Therefore, the Swissy will get a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective, for indicating a bearish opportunity below the 0.8996 level for that it will be a good sign to sell below 0.8996 with the first target of 0.8930 (this level is coinciding with the daily pivot point today) and it will call for downtrend in order to continue bearish move towards 0.8900.

  • The price is at 0.8906 to test the double bottom. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, thus it will of the wisdom to set your stop loss at the price of 0.8930.



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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Trading recommendations :



  • The key level is set at the level of 0.8779. Moreover, the 0.8779 level is coinciding with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement level on June 20, 2014. Another thought, we expect a range about 55 pips today. Equally important, the resistance has already formed at the 0.8770 level. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. So, according to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between 0.8690 and 0.8770. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.8779 with the first target of 0.8733. If the trend breaks the daily pivot point, then it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.8690. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be placed above the resistance at the price of 0.8820.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

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Overview :



  • The resistance has already set at the level of 1.3668, a strong level, on June 20, 2014. Additionally, the double top is also coinciding with the same price at the level of 1.3668. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair broke the weekly pivot point yesterday and today the price is still around it. Also, it should be noted that the market opened below the weekly resistance today. Hence, the trend was sideways and the range seemed extensive up to 66 pips. According to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair has still been trapped between the level of 1.3650 and the 1.3590 level. Therefore, it will be advantageous to sell at the price of 1.3668 (the weekly double top in H1 chart) with the first target at 1.3590 ( the level of 1.3573 is going to represent the weekly pivot point). It may resume to 1.3550 if the price is able to break 1.3573. Notwithstanding, stop loss should always be in account, accordingly, it will be of profitable to set the stop loss above the double top at the price of 1.3690.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 20, 2014 Trend News

General Overview for 20/06/2014 08:44 CET


The pair is at the critical support level now and any breakout lower is very bearish. The price is now in the last stages of wave five (alt:5 red) and some corrective upward cycle might be expected but for this scenario to happen, the intraday resistance at the level of 1.0836 must be broken. Otherwise lower levels will be seen in this pair as the current consolidation looks like a wave 4 triangle of the last wave 5 red to the downside. Please notice that the main count still suggests one more internal cycyle to complete to the upside before the final push to the downside would happen.


Support/Resistance:


1.0806 - WS1


1.0809 - Intraday Support


1.0835 - Intraday Resistance


1.0872 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Daytraders should consider to open the buy positions only if the level of 1.0836 is broken and H1 candle closes above it. SL for that trade would be below the level of 1.0805 and TP at the level of 1.0872.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/06/2014 08:35 CET


The wave progression develops as indicated, but the overall count has been changed slightly to accomodate a possible more copmplex development in the upward wave C black of wave 2 black. Currently the price is above the weekly pivot level and next level of the resistnace is at the level of 139.36. The key level for intraday traders is intraday resistance at the level of 138.85. A breakout higher means the impulsive wave progression is intact. For a bearish case, only a sustained breakout below the low of the wave 2 red is important.


Support/Resistance:


138.39 - Wave 2 red Low


138.55 = Weekly Pivot


138.60 - Intraday Support


138.85 - Intraday Resistance


139.36 - WR1


Trading recommendations:


Long positions from yesterday should still be in play and next level to add to the existing positions is 138.85 (breakout).


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