Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range.It is underpinned by the yen-funded funded carry trades amid positive risk sentiment as U.S. stocks closed mostly higher overnight (S&P 500 hit record high 1959.87 before closing up 0.13% at 1959.48; DJIA up 0.09%, Nasdaq off 0.08%), helped by the Federal Reserve's commitment to low rates and Fed Chairwoman Yellen's comment Wednesday that she did not think the valuation of the stock market was outside historical norms. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.32 versus 80.41 early Thursday) as Fed's accommodative stance and weaker-than-expected 0.5% rise in Conference Board U.S. May leading index (versus forecast +0.6%) outweighed surprise rise in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 17.8 in June from 15.4 in May (versus forecast for drop to 13.3) and in-line 6,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 312,000 in week ended June 14 and positions adjustment before weekend.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.30 and the second target at 102.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.75. A breach of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.60. The pivot point is at 102.
Resistance levels:
102.30
102.45
102.74
Support levels:
101.70
101.60
101.45
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