Friday 16 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 16, 2012 Trend News

The major currencies are showing a slight recovery. If you look at the weekly charts of the pairs which are trading against the U.S. dollar we can see a doji figure, almost closing the price earlier this week. That is a sign of indecision, because of uncertainty widespread in the leading countries in the world economy.


For example: in the U.S., Bernanke is insisting on the flexibility to include a plan to buy $ 40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities, in order to stimulate growth and reduce an unemployment rate of 7.9%.


This week, the Japanese yen was in bearish mood, because the Japanese government downgraded its view of the economy for the fourth month, the longest streak since the global financial crisis, because exports are falling and weak demand threatens to overturn the country into recession. Thus, we can see that the yen in just 2 days moved 206 pips is the maximum recording 81.45 as well all its crosses.


Gold futures fell to the level of 1,704 U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver fell 0.58% to trade at 32.483 a troy ounce, while copper rose 0.02% to trade at 3468 dollars a pound.


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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.2830 - For November 16, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The EUR/USD pair rose moderately on Thursday. It is likely to rise to the level of 1.2830. There is resistance and weekly moving average of 200 periods. Our medium term outlook remains bearish below 1.2850. At this point, it is not recommended to sell, since the pair is rebounding from 1.2660 minimum, so you should be attentive to the level of 1.2830, as the market could pause to 1.2830, and then resume its way down. On the other hand, if the pair closes above 1.2860, a new upward sequence will begin.


As we can see, the pair will be consolidating in the range 1.2650 to 1.2830 until the end of the month. Below 1.2650 the market could become very bearish. Above 1.2860, very bullish.


According to the chart, you can decide whether to buy above 1.2760 fractal or wait for reverse of the pair to 1.2685, and buy, targeting to 1.2830. If you have sell strategy, it is recommended to wait until the 1.2830 level because there is much resistance.



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GOLD Wave Analysis for November 16, 2012 Trend News


GOLD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis Gold was trading in a downward movement like we expected, corrective C wave (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (2) (coloured green) was developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 1,727.40 toward the 1,715.45 level. Therefore, during the New York session this commodity continued trading in a bearish mood and the price reached a new daily low at 1,704.50 level. We can consider this move as the end of the corrective (2) wave (coloured green). At the moment Gold is trading around 1711.40 level and we are expecting to see the price around 1,800.00 level in the short time. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1,811.99 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 1,704.50 level as stop loss.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1,681.2 (S2) 1,692.8 (S1) 1,704.6 (PP) 1,716.2 (R1) 1,728.0 (R2) 1,739.6 (R3) 1,751.4


Trading Forecast


Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1,720.00 with stop loss 1,704.50 and take profit at 1,8011.99 are recommended.


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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for November 16, 2012 Trend News


USD/JPY Elliott Wave
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair was trading in an upward move; impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (A) wave (coloured green) was developing. During the Thursday's European session we could observe ascending movement towards the 80.95 level. Therefore, during the New York session the USD/JPY pair continued trading in a bullish mood reaching 81.45 level and we can consider this move as the end of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue). Today this major currency pair is developing corrective 4 wave (coloured blue) and we are expecting to see the price at 80.60 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 80.60 (38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at invalidation at 81.55 level as stop loss.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 80.70 (S2) 80.80 (S1) 80.91 (PP) 81.01 (R1) 81.12 (R2) 81.22 (R3) 81.33


Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 81.00 with stop loss 81.55 and take profit at 80.60 are recommended.


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EUR/JPY Wave Analysis for November 16, 2012 Trend News

Daily



After EUR/JPY has rebounded from the correctional level 38.2% - 100.73 of Fibonacci on the daily chart the pair continues its upswing in the value of the euro towards the level of correction 61.8% - 104.81. The consolidation above the level enables the growth of the rate towards the next level of correction 76.4% - 107.30. Formation of a bearish candlestick pattern allows the pair to make a turn in favor of the yen and start falling. The rebound from the correctional level 61.8% of Fibonacci enables the pair to drop towards the level of correction 38.2%. The last candlestick pattern that was formed was bullish engulfing pattern. It enables the pair to rebound from the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci and start growing.

4h



On the 4H chart after the bullish engulfing pattern and bullish harami pattern were formed, the quotes consolidated above the level of correction 23.6% - 103.42 of Fibonacci. As a result the rise of the rate may continue towards the next level of correction 0.0% - 104.58. A rebound from this correctional level gives a reason to consider the beginning of drop towards the yen. Formation of bearish harami pattern enables the pair to move down and consolidate under the level of correction 23.6%. In this case the drop of the rate may continue towards the level of correction 38.2% - 102.69. The rebound from the level of correction 23.6% provides a possibility for the pair to resume the upswing.


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Silver Consolidation Continues. Looking For Breakout Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Silver consolidation continues. Support around 32.15/20 and resistance around 32.75/80 is the trading range for now. It is expected to break higher up soon towards 34.30/50 levels. The overall support range is in the range 31.70 to 32.00. Buying dips as close to the support range are recommended. Resistance begins from 33.40 level and extends through 34.50. Look higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier on, stop at 30.50, and target open.


Good Luck!


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Gold Dips Towards 1,705.00. Providing Fresh Opportunities To Buy Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Yesterday the yellow metal dipped towards 1,705 level (our expected support band is in the range 1,700 to 1,715) and it pulled back sharply before the end of the day. Believe it or not, this is the dip that was technically required for the metal to complete a 3 wave retracement. Furthermore, as depicted above, the metal bounced back just shy of the sloping resistance line (inner one). This could be the much awaited reversal signal required for the next leg up towards 1,780.00 level as depicted above. Intermediary supports are at 1,700 and 1,680 levels respectively, while resistance begins from 1,750/60 levels. Higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier. Still buying on intraday dips is favourable. Stop at 1,680. Target open. Please note to book partial profits at resistance levels.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Tests Resistance at 104.00. Further Highs Remain Possible After A Small Dip Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair rose through resistance at 104.00 level yesterday. It is expected to retrace and test at least the backside of the sloping trendline before rallying further up. Intermediary support will be provided by 102.00 level now, while the next resistance lined up is at 104.25/30. It is humbly recommended to always book partial profits whenever a target or resistance is hit. Furthermore, buying on dips towards 103.00/102.50 levels shall be good according to risk/reward ratio. Looking higher up after a break.


Trading Recommendations:


Book 50-60% profits on long positions taken earlier. Further buy positions can be build on dips, move stops to break even, we nave no risk now!


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Bearish View Intact. Hold On To Short Positions. Move Down Risks Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair remains bearish. It is expected to slide down further. If the pair comes below 1.4900 level today, then it will instill further bearish conviction. It is recommended to book at least partial profits on short positions taken earlier and also move risk below. Furthermore, intraday rallies towards 1.5 can be sold as well; after watching bearish signals appearing on smaller timeframes. Intermediary support is at 1.4800 level, while resistance is near 1.5150 level. Looking lower from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on short positions taken earlier, book partial profits though, sell intraday rallies towards 1.5 region, stop at 1.5100 or breakeven, and target at 1.46.


Good Luck!


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