Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 11th 2013 Trend News

Gold prices were very volatile last night, but without breaking below our important support levels. Trendlines where held and so did the potential upward trend. We were expecting at least a new high above 1,266 but our first elliott wave target was 1,294. At that price level wave C was equal to wave A. Prices moved early today impulsively upwards towards 1,298.

Wave C has reached the upper boundaries of the upward sloping channel. Resistance is found at this level and we could expect a pullback towards 1,270-60 area. The upward move from 1,208 is in three waves. Breaking below 1,245 will confirm the end of the upward correction. Otherwise, if prices make a correction only towards 1,270-60, we expect another leg up towards 1,350.

As mentioned yesterday, the downward move from 1,260 was overlapping and labeled as corrective. We were expecting an upward break that finally came and reached our target. This upward move that started from 1,243 was complete in 5 waves at 1,298. Bulls should be carefull as the entire upward correction is likely to be over. The form of the price movement in the next couple of days will give us more info and insights on what to expect next.

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Dollar index in correction phase (July 11, 2013) Trend News

The Dollar index topped yesterday and as we mentioned in our analysis yesterday, breaking below support levels would confirm our view that a top is in and that it is time for the index to make a bigger degree correction. As we noted several times before, the upward move from 80.50 was almost if not already complete and that a pullback towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement would take place. Last night prices broke out of the upward sloping channel.

As support levels failed to hold, prices accelerated downwards as prices moved outside of the upward sloping channel. Interruption of the pattern of higher highs and higher lows gave us a clear signal that a bigger degree correction had started. We will now look for the possible bottoming area as we still believe that as long as prices trade above 80, the longer-term trend will be bullish for the Dollar Index.

The Dollar Index not only met our first target of the 38% Fibonacci retracement, but also moved lower towards the 50% retracement. The entire downward correction could already be over, but we will remain neutral as only the first part of the correction may have ended. We could expect an upward bounce and then another final leg down towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Concluding, we remain neutral.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 130.56 (very important resistance)

R2: 130.13

R1: 129.70

Current spot: 129.32

S1: 128.92

S2: 128.49

S3: 128.00

Technical overview:

Even though the rally from 128.00 has been much bigger than expected, we are still looking for a break below 128.00 soon and an acceleration towards the downside. We counted the decline from 130.56 to 128.00 as red wave i of iii of c and the rally we have seen from 128.00 to 130.43 as red wave ii and we are therefore looking for red wave iii down. In short-term we would like to see minor resistance at 129.91 protecting the upside for a break below 128.98, which would confirm a new decline towards 128.00 and lower towards 126.57. However, it is vital that we don't see a break above important resistance at 130.56. If this resistance breaks, it will invalidate not only our bearish count, but it will also swing the entire picture towards a more bullish count and a rally back towards the high at 133.81 in a very complex correction.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 130.50 and will place a stop + reverse of our short position at 130.60. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 129.91 or upon a break below 128.98 with the same stop+reverse at 130.60.

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EUR/NZD Elliott Wave analysis for July 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6688

R2: 1.6600

R1: 1.6535

Current Spot: 1.6500

S1: 1.6445

S2: 1.6397

S3: 1.6356

Technical overview:

The rally of the 1.6225 low has been impulsive in character (in five waves), which is what we would expect after the triple correction down from 1.7111. In the short term, we would like to see support at 1.6445 protecting the downside for a break above 1.6600 and, way more important, a break above 1.6688, which confirms that a new rally towards 1.7111 is developing. However, if support at 1.6445 should break, it should only open up for a decline to 1.6397 and maybe towards 1.6356, before the next rally higher is expected. That said as long as the resistance line from the 1.7111 high has not been broken, we will have to consider the possibility of the decline from the 1.6688 high down to 1.6225 as being wave a of Z and the rally from 1.6225 as wave b of Z and if this is the case we need one last decline towards 1.6144 before the triple correction from 1.7111 finally find its low. This count is not our preferred count, but we must consider the possibility and be flexible.

Trading recommendation:

We long EUR from 1.6335 and will lift our stop to 1.6430. If you do not have long positions on EUR, then buy at a break above 1.6600 with the same stop at 1.6430.

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