Overview:
In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4398 in a high volume. The mid-term trends are bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after corrections. I found resitance around the price of 1.4560 (swing low like resistance). My advice is to be careful when buying and to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.4520
R2: 1.4570
R3: 1.4653
Support levels:
S1: 1.4354
S2: 1.4304
S3: 1.4221
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement (after bullish correction).
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,146.85 in an ultra volume. Our support at the price of $1,142.00 was successfully tested. According to the 30-minute time frame, we have an ultra high buying climax, so be careful when buying gold. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. If the price breaks the level of $1,142.00 in a high volume, we may see a potential testing of the level of $1,138.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,156.46
R2: 1,160.64
R3: 1,167.40
Support levels :
S1: 1,142.94
S2: 1,138.62
S3: 1,132.27
Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.
Overview:
On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending bottom was established around 1.5170-1.5200 indicating bullish sentiment on the market.
Projection target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (daily resistance).
Two weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as a bearish one.
Significant bearish pressure was applied over the price level of 1.5200 (R2) then 1.4950 (R1 = breached weekly support).
Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.
On Monday, bullish recovery existed after retesting of 1.4700 despite the ongoing long-term bearish momentum.
Today, bulls failed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. A new low was hit around 1.4630 earlier today. The price action should be watched closely to determine the next destination of the pair.
Trading recommendations:
Wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.4950-1.5000 for a low-risk SELL entry. SL to be set as daily closure above 1.5015.
TP levels should be set at 1.4900, 1.4840 and finally at 1.4700.
Overview:
Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought.
However, bullish pressure is still being expressed on the market (the previous weekly closure came above 1.2750).
The nearest support level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2620-1.2650 (upper limit of the confirmed wedge pattern), then 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level that provided significant SUPPORT for successive weeks on the DAILY chart).
Successive lower highs were established within the wedge-pattern depicted on the daily chart. However, the market price action indicated a bullish breakout above 1.2600-1.2660.
Bullish persistence above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2900 and 1.2960 as it confirmed the wedge pattern as a bullish continuation one.
Projection target for the wedge pattern would be roughly located around 1.3060 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).
This week, the current weekly candle closure should be monitored, as the price zone of 1.2680-1.2650 is our key-zone. Weekly closure above it enhances the bullish side of the market in the long term and vice versa.
Trading recommendations:
Risky traders can benefit from the short-term bullish breakout above the wedge-pattern. T/P levels should be set at 1.2880 and 1.2960.
A bearish pullback towards 1.2600-1.2630 will probably offer a valid buy entry for those who missed the initial breakout with SL placed slightly below 1.2570.
The market has previously established a consolidation zone around 1.4960 which extended up to 1.5280. This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel.
Bulls managed to push towards higher levels including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level).
Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 resulting in formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily and weekly candlesticks.
Significant demand levels located around 1.5200 and 1.5000 were recently breached indicating a strong bearish tendency on the market.
The price zone of 1.4960-1.5000 is expected to provide significant supply at retesting. It comes to meet the upper limit of the long-term depicted channel.
Recently, the GBP/USD bulls failed to defend their demand zone around significant bearish pressure of 1.4960-1.5000 was being applied in the market.
Some bullish recovery was manifested on the H4 chart around the price levels around 1.4700 (Yesterday's low) which was breached earlier today.
Another fixation above 1.4700-1.4720 is a must to enhance the bullish side of the market allowing a corrective movement to take place.
On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5970-1.5030 (prominent SUPPLY zone) for a low-risk sell entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5130.
The market has been aggressively pushing lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Now, the EUR/USD pair is pushing further below monthly demand around 1.0550 (established on January 1998) where some bullish recovery is expected to exist around.
On the other hand, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450. That is why the price action should be watched around the current monthly demand level.
A bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. The daily fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (minor consolidation range) confirmed that bearish pattern.
Obvious bearish breakdown of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets initially around 1.0800.
Full projection targets for the Flag pattern were successfully reached around 1.0800 and 1.0500.
After the bearish rally of 1.1300 conservative traders should be looking for low-risk BUY opportunities at lower prices.
The price action should be watched around 1.0550 on the H4 and daily charts looking for signs of bullish reversal to confirm a buy position that we have suggested.
Daily closure above tthe price zone of 1.0630-1.0660 indicates a quick corrective movement towards 1.0850 initially.
Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate as markets await the US FOMC interest rate decision. USD/CHF is supported by the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention. The USD/CHF upside is limited by the caution before the FOMC decision.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.999. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9950. The pivot point stands at 1.0090. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0120 and the second target at 1.0170.
Resistance levels:
1.0120
1.0160
1.02
Support levels:
0.9990
0.9950
0.9875
Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate as markets await the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. Most market participants anticipate that the Fed might remove the word "patient" from its policy statement what would indicate that US interest rates could be raised around midyear. The US yield curve flattened Tuesday ahead of the FOMC decision with the 2-year yield rising to 0.673% from 0.653% late Monday and the 10-year yield falling to 2.052% from 2.098% late Monday. USD/JPY is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.32% to 15.66, S&P fell 0.33% overnight) on caution before the FOMC decision, a larger-than-expected decrease of 17.0% in US February housing starts (versus forecast -2.3%) and weak oil prices (Nymex crude hit six-year low $42.41/bbl Tuesday). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports. The USD/JPY downside is limited by demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.90. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 120.20. The pivot point stands at 121.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 122 and the second target at 122.50.
Resistance levels:
122
122.50
122.75
Support levels:
120.90
120.60
120.20
Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a lower range as markets await the US FOMC interest rate decision. The NZD sentiment is dented by a decrease of 8.8% in Fonterra's GDT Price Index and a drop of 9.6% in average price for whole milk powder to $2,928/MT at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction. NZD/USD is also weighed by kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross and subdued investor risk appetite. The NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD yield differential.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is tilting negative as the MACD is bearish, stochastics is reverting to bearish mode.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7265. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7215. The pivot point stands at 0.7360. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.74 and the second target at 0.7445.
Resistance levels:
0.74
0.7445
0.75
Support levels:
0.7265
0.7215
0.7180
Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate as markets await the US FOMC interest rate decision. GBP/JPY is supported by demand from Japan's importers. The GBP/JPY upside is limited by the Japanese exports and diminished investor risk appetite.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 176.35. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 180.80. The pivot point stands at 178.55. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.35 and the second target at 180.80.
Resistance levels:
179.35
180.80
181.75
Support levels:
176.15
175.50
175
The USDX is still alive in the bullish outlook on the daily chart, because the instrument stays above the support level of 99.19, trying to push higher until the resistance level of 100.49. If the pair breaks that zone, the next target will be set at the level of 101.60. It should be noted that the MACD indicator is already at the overbought territory.
The sideways trend continues to dominate the main bias on the H1 chart, as the USDX is trading in a range between the 100.01 and 99.13 levels. Also, the 200 SMA is trying to approach the support zone of 99.13, where the USDX could find dynamic support in order to do more rallies for reach new multi year highs.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 100.49 / 101.60
Dailychart's support levels: 99.19 / 98.01
H1 chart's resistance levels: 100.01 / 100.88
H1 chart's support levels: 99.13 / 97.93
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 100.01, take profit is at 100.88, and stop loss is at 99.13.
The GBP/USD pair continues pushing lower to the support level at 1.4649. Also, we can expect that the pair finds strong support at the zone around 1.4649, where it could start to form a bearish pattern. This strong bearish movement came after a solid lower low pattern formation below the resistance level of 1.4820 at the daily chart.
The intraday outlook is showing extreme zones, as the GBP/USD pair is trading near to the support level of 1.4652. If the pair does a breakout in that zone, the the level of 1.4607 could become the next target in the down side. The bearish momentum is still strong, because the MACD indicator hasn't still reach the oversold territory at the H1 chart.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4820 / 1.4948
Dailychart's support levels: 1.4649 / 1.4520
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4697 / 1.4746
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4652 / 1.4607
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4652, take profit is at 1.4607, and stop loss is at 1.4697.
The Dollar index is showing some signs of a pause to the upward move. The short-term trend is neutral. The longer-term trend remains bullish. We are very close to the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2000. I believe we have some more upside potential to reach 101.50.
Red lines= triangle pattern
The Dollar index is trading sideways in a short-term triangle pattern. Resistance is at 100 and support at 99.30. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and is trading around the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators. We should see a break out of the triangle soon.
The weekly chart remains fully bullish with tenkan-sen and kijun-sen pointing higher. The price continues to make higher highs and higher lows.The weekly chart shows that we could have seen a short-term top but with the FOMC meeting scheduled for tonight the week is not over, this weekly candle can still change dramatically in favor of bulls. Nevertheless, bulls should not forget to raise their stops to protect their positions.
Overview :
Intraday technical levels :
Date:18/03/2015
Pair:EUR/USD
Gold price broke out and went down the triangle pattern yesterday. Today, it still holds above the level of $1,130, which is the lowest since 2014. I believe it is a matter of time befor the price breaks new lows, as trend remains fully bearish. Support is found at $1,142 now and next – at $1,130.
Black lines=triangle pattern
Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Yesterday, it broke below the triangle pattern, pushed back inside and today we find Gold price back below the triangle. This is not a bullish sign and the short-term trend will remain bearishas long as price is below $1,166. Ichimoku cloud resistance is found at $1,163.
Blue line=support
In the weekly chart above, gold price remains in a bearish trend with mounting chances to break below $1,130, which is the lowest level since 2014. Trend remains bearish. The price remains below the Ichimoku cloud resistance and below the kijun-sen. Important support is at $1,130. If it gets broken, then I would expect Gold price to slide lower towards $1,000 or even $900.
The daily pivot point: 1.4770
Overview :
General overview for 18/03/2015 09:35 CET
The current price consolidation between the levels of 1.2821 - 1.2736 is getting more complex and time-consuming as the market is waiting for important Fed's news release later today. A breakout might happen any time now and the downward spike to the level of 1.2596 is needed to complete the current corrective cycle. The longer term bias still remains bullish.
Support/Resistance:
1.2917 - WR1
1.2821 - Intraday Resistance
1.2746 - Weekly Pivot
1.2732 - Intraday Support
1.2668 - WS1
1.2596 - Technical Support
Trading recommendations:
The market is still consolidating and the trading advise is still valid. Daytraders should consider opening buy orders if:
- the level of 1.2821 is clearly violated with a minimum H1 close above this level. SL should be tight (10-20 pips), TP should be placed at the level of 1.2917.
- the level of 1.2704 provided a clear bounce to the upside, SL should be tight (10-20 pips), TP should be placed at the level of 1.2917.
- the level of 1.2596 provided a clear bounce to the upside, SL should be tight (10-20 pips), TP should be placed at the level of 1.2917.
General overview for 18/03/2015 09:20 CET
As anticipated from the beginning of the week wave c green to the upside had been made. But please notice that it might get extended to the upside even more. The intraday resistance at the level of 129.03 had been violated as well, but no H1 close occurred so far above this level. Currently, the market is hovering around the weekly pivot at the level of 128.41 and it is possibly waiting for important Fed's news later today. Please notice that the corrective cycle might get even more complex now and this had been indicated by labeling the top of the wave c green as wave (a) blue.
Support/Resistance:
126.89 - Technical Support
129.07 - Intraday Support
128.41 - Weekly Pivot
129.03 - Intraday Resistance
129.90 - WR1
130.69 - Intraday Resistance
131.59 - 50%Fibo
131.87 - Intraday Resistance
132.45 - 61%Fibo
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 129.03 is clearly violated with a minimum H1 closure above this level. SL should be placed below the level of 126.89 and TP should be placed at the level of 130.69 with a possible extension upward to the level of 131.87.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair drops to the level of 127.00 and reverses sharply to take out initial resistance at 129.06. Now ,the pair has confirmed that a meaningful low at the level of 127.00 is in place and a potential rally can be expected from here. It is recommended to initiate fresh long positions at current levels (128.60), with risk below 126.50. Immediate interim support is seen at 127.00, while major resistance is seen at 137.50 on the daily chart setup. The pair could initiate a corrective 3 wave rally from here and bulls should be poised to remain in control now, untill prices stay above the level of 127.00.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at 126.50, target is open.
Good luck!
After release of the BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes, the yen was trading higher against the pound. The cross erased its Monday's gains. It has been consolidating near the fate/fortune level. It's a big day for the US and UK. At the today's Asian session, the pound is trading higher against USD and JPY ahead of crucial big data. The cross is trading in the support zone around 177.95 and 177.80, 200Dema, and 200Dsma respectively. Monthly support is found at 176.70 50Wsma. Weekly resistance is seen at 181.50 and 181.65. The panic will be triggered in case the price closes below 177.80. The cross closes below 50Dsma, so the near and short-term outlooks remain bearish. On a weekly basis, the cross closes below 20Wsma and is trading below it. Until the price closes below 180.50, the bearish view remains in play. Intraday resistance is seen at 179.50. Intraday support is found at 179.60 and 179.10. Trade: selling below 179.60 with targets at 179.10,178.90 and 178.70. Panic below 177.80. Levels to watch- 177.95 177.80 last hope at 177.60. These are valid for this week.
To contact the author of this story, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
Technical summary:
It should be clear by now that this cross never makes it easy. There was no follow-through towards the downside, but instead an impulsive minor rally in wave c of an expanded flat correction. This means, we still should see more downside in wave v once the correction is over near 1.4556. In the short term we still expect a move slightly higher to 1.4556 as long as the minor support at 1.4451 protects the downside. From 1.4556 or above the break below the support at 1.4451 the final decline towards 1.3878 should be seen.
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.4470 was hit for a loss. We will sell EUR at 1.4545 or above the break below 144.51 with a stop at 1.4645.
Technical summary:
We are still looking for a final decline towards the ideal target at 125.98. In the short term a break below minor support at 128.36 and, more importantly, a break below support at 128.03 will confirm that the final impulsive decline is developing. A decline to 125.98 will finish the impulsive decline from 149.55. It will mark wave C of the expanded flat correction that has been unfolding over the last three months. Resistance is now found at 129.16 which will protect the upside for the expected decline.
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 129.10 was hit for a very nice profit. We will sell EUR here at 128.63 again with stop placed at 129.15 and will place take profit at 126.25.
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD is still experiencing a short-term rally in the context of a downtrend. Unless the resistance lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 are overcome and breached to the upside, the short-term rally would be seen as another opportunity to go short targeting the support lines at 1.0550 and 1.0500.
USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has been moving sideways since last week, and unlike the EUR/USD which bounced upwards, it has not pulled back this week. The outlook on the market remains bullish. Now, there is a possibility that the market would try the resistance level at 1.0150.
GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument is also bearish and the shallow stamina could be seen as a chance to look for shorting opportunities with the expectation that the price would dive towards the accumulation territories at 1.4700 and 1.4600. In fact the price has started going down.
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY has been moving sideways since last week and there would soon be a breakout which would potentially favor the bulls. The rationale behind this expectation is corroborated by the fact that the price is above the EMA 56 while the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. This upward breakout is expected to happen this week or early next week.
EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY is consolidating to the upside and in the context of a downtrend. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart is still a valid thing and unless the supply zones at 130.00 and 140.00 are overcome, the upside consolidation would bring nice shorting opportunities.
When the European market opens, some economic reports will be released such as the German 10-y Bond Auction, Trade Balance, and the Italian Trade Balance. The US will reveal the economic data too such as the Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, and Crude Oil Inventories. So, amid the reports EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.0647.
Strong Resistance:1.0640.
Original Resistance: 1.0630.
Inner Sell Area: 1.0620.
Target Inner Area: 1.0595.
Inner Buy Area: 1.0570.
Original Support: 1.0560.
Strong Support: 1.0550.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.0543.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
In Asia, Japan will release the reports on its Trade Balance and BOJ Monthly Report, and the United States will unveil economic data on Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, and Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a big probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium volatility during the US session.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Resistance. 3: 121.91.
Resistance. 2: 121.67.
Resistance. 1: 121.44.
Support. 1: 121.15.
Support. 2: 120.91.
Support. 3: 120.67.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF has broken the trend line support for now and found fibonacci 0.618 support ahead of 1.4750 as depicted here on the 4H chart. It is recommended to remain long and add fresh positions at current levels with risk below the level of 1.4650. The pair could resume rally if bounces from current levels, as the drop has been corrective. A push above 1.4950 would confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place just ahead of the level 1.4750. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.4650 while resistance is seen at 1.4950 respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long and add more, stop at 1.4650, target 1.5200 levels and higher.
Good luck!
GBP/USD
Monday and Tuesday was scheduled to be a quite important day for the UK. At the yesterday's session, the pound lost most of its Monday's gains against USD. Eyes shifted to the FOMC meeingt. As we knew, the UK going to hold its interest rates lower for a longer period than expected. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 0.25% in June or September. The cable grounded towards the lowest level since mid-2013. The cable made a low at 1.47000. We hinted 500 pips fall in case the price close below the level of 1.4810. But the event does not occur yet. We are still waiting for lower targets. The EUR/GBP cross is also weighing on the pound. The eurozone is the UK's major trading partner. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled for May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure. Prices are trading in a bearish channel. Strong resistance is seen at 1.4900 and 1.4950. Until the price closes below 1.4950, a bearish view remains in play. Intraday support is likely to be found at 1.4720 and 1.4700. We recommend selling below 1.4700 with targets at 1.4580 and 1.4550 in the near term and at 1.4350 in the medium term. We expect the pair to hit 1.4350 or 1.4200 before May/June. We expect the bottom to be formed after the election in the UK.
Trade: Selling below 1.4700
To contact the author of this story, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
Yellow metal is hovering near 2014 and 2015 low. At the yesterday's session, the metal found parallel support at $1,142.50, which is a low of December 2014. In case if the price breaks below $1,142.50, other parallel support at $1,131.70 comes to existence. All eyes on the today's Federal Reserve meeting. The metal price is under pressure amid mounting concerns about the Federal Reserve's rate hike. In case if we didn't hear rate hike, it means correction for the USDX and USD related pairs. This is a big thump up on equity markets. Everyone eyes on the patience word. Some economists expectat the Federal Reserve can pause a patient kind of activity. A four-day consolidation phase ends with a negative bias. The Federal Reserve stands on a hawkish tone. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 0.25% in June or September. The strong US dollar affects the metal price. The US dollar is likely to remain strong. At the today's Asian session, the metal is trading lower. At the yesterday's session, we recommend selling below $1,147.00 with targets at $1,140.00, $1,137.00, $1,124.00, $1,120.00, $1,$1,15.00, and $1,100.00. The metal hit a low at $1,142.50. For intraday, we recommend selling below $1,142.00 again. Intraday support is found at $1,142.00 and $1,131.50. Resistance is seen at $1,158.00. Weekly resistance is set around $1,168.00.
Trade: Buying above $1,156.00 with targets at $1,162.00,$1,166.00, $1,168.00, and $1,170.00.
Selling below $1,142.00 with targets at $1,137.50, $1,132.00,$1,128.00, and $1,120.00. We expect wild movements today.
To contact the author of this story, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
Review: the eurozone produced a bag of mixed economic data yesterday.
ZEW and German ZEW economic sentiment: in March 2015, the Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany from ZEW increased for the fifth consecutive time. Compared to the previous month, the indicator has gained 1.8 points to a reading of 54.8 (long-term average: 24.7 points) but remained below expectations. This is the indicator's highest value since February 2014. Economic sentiment in Germany remains at a high level.
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the eurozone increased by 9.7 points to a reading of 62.4 points. Gaining 11.8 points in March 2015, the current situation indicator for the euro area reached a value of minus 36.6 points.
Final CPI: in the euro area the annual inflation rate was up to -0.3%. The annual inflation in the eurozone was -0.3% in February 2015, up from -0.6% in January. In February 2014, the rate was 0.7%. In the European Union, the annual inflation was -0.2% in February 2015, up from -0.5% in January. A year earlier, the rate was 0.8%. These figures came from the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Employment change: the number of employed increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter, according to national accounts estimates published by the Eurostat.
In the US, housing data plunged in February. Experts believe that heavy snowfalls were the main factor behind this lunge.
Today is a big day in the financial world. We expect wild movements in the coming days. The euro fate is likely to be decided today. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 0.25% in June or September. The euro is the most effecting currency due to the divergence policy of the Central Bank. This divergence proves more downside room to this pair.
Technical view: the pair gained 20 pips at the yesterday's session closed with marginal gains. The price managed to close successfully above hourly moving averages in the h1 and h4 chart as well. Intraday resistance is seems at 1.0685. Support is likely to be found at 1.0550 and 1.0500. We recommend safe buying above 1.0685. We have been recommending to trade with a target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. The euro is trading higher lower the US dollar ahead of today's big event. In case the price closes below 1.0495, bears can challenge 1.0335 and 1.0310 levels in the near term, I guess today. Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0710. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0550 with targets at 1.0460, 1.0425, 1.0380, 1.0350, and 1.0335.
Trade: Selling below 1.0580, panic will be triggered below 1.0550
Safe traders selling
below 1.0550
To contact the author of this story, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has been holding the fibonacci 0.786 support level well around $15.30/50 over a few sessions now. The metal should be poised to resume its uptrend untill the price stays above $14.00. It is hence recommended to remain long and also look to add further ahead of the level of $14.00, with risk below $14.00 for now. Immediate support is seen at $14.00, while resistance is seen at the level of $17.00 followed by $17.50, $18.50, and higher respectively. A higher low is expected to be formed around the current support level. The metal is preparing for an extended rally towards the levels of $19.00 and $21.00.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop below $14.00, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold dropped to a fresh intermediary level at $1,143.00 before pulling back sharply towards $1,160.00 again. The yellow metal is expected to remain under control of bulls untill prices stay above the level of $1,130.00. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk below $1,130.00 for now. A drop below this support would bring the price to the level of $1,030.00 before resuming the uptrend. Immediate support is seen at $1,130.00 while resistance is seen at $1,170.00. A push above the level of $1,190.00 would confirm that the bottom is in place for the next leg to resume higher.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop below $1,130.00, target is open.
Good luck!
