Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

Hints made by ECB president Draghi that further easing could be necessary made the EUR tumble in late afternoon. The important support level of 1.6637 was broken indicating a different pattern unfolding. An expanded flat is unfolding as red wave ii. If this is correct, then we are likely to see a move slightly lower to 1.6480 before the next rally above 1.6785 confirming a new rally to 1.7273 and above towards 1.7646 should be seen. Only a direct breakout above 1.6785 indicates that the expanded flat correction has already terminated and the impulsive rally towards 1.7646 is unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6635 was hit for a loss. We will re-buy EUR at 1.6485 with stop placed at 1.6365 or we will buy EUR upon a direct breakout above 1.6785

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

Red wave ended a little earlier than we had expected. The bottom of red wave (v) and wave [iii] was seen at 126.14. That means a correction in wave [iv] is unfolding now. An ideal target for this correction is seen at the 38.2% corrective target of a decline from 133.25 to 126.14 and this target comes in at 129.07, which is the top of red wave (iv) of one lessor degree.

In the short term, we are going to look for a minor set-back to 126.92 before the next minor rally towards 129.07 ends wave [iv] and sets a stage for the next impulsive decline in wave [v].

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 130.95 and will move our stop lower to 127.90 or take profit at 127.05.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

On December 30, a significant bearish rejection took place around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken to the downside as well.

The depicted chart illustrates a double-top reversal pattern. The depicted support level at 0.6430 should be broken downwards in order to confirm the reversal pattern.

However, traders should note that the level of 0.6400-0.6350 constitutes a significant support zone, which corresponds to the backside of a broken downtrend line.

Hence, a strong bullish rejection and a valid buy entry were expected in the zone of 0.6400-0.6380.

Significant bullish reaction has been manifested around 0.6380 (a bullish engulfing daily candlestick) on the daily chart earlier this week.

Today, bullish persistence above 0.6500 is mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets.

On the other hand, a bearish daily closure below 0.6500 brings the pair again towards the level of 0.6420.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart). A long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270.

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Since then, another consolidation range was established between 1.2800 and 1.3400.

A few weeks ago, a bearish breakout below the support level of 1.3075 was needed to enable a further bearish decline to take place towards 1.2900. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

A bullish breakout above 1.3400 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market on December 7.

A bullish visit towards the resistance level of 1.4150 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expected as a result of a bullish breakout above 1.3400.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4600-1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where bearish rejection should be expected.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains the significant support zone to be watched for valid buy entries if bearish correction occurs.

Trading recommendations:

As we expected, a valid sell entry was offered around 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion). It is already running in profits now. S/L should be located above 1.4700.

Next T/P levels should be located at 1.4280 and 1.4150.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish engulfing candlestick closure below the level of 1.4100 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) to sell the USD/CAD pair. S/L should be located above 1.4150.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which provided significant bearish resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A quick bearish decline towards the previous weekly level of 1.4950 was expected as a result of a bearish breakout below 1.5200.

Extensive bearish pressure has been applied to demand levels located at 1.4620, 1.4360, and 1.4220. All of them have been breached to the downside.

The next demand zone to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.3840-1.3660, which corresponds previous bottoms established back in May 2009. However, early signs of bullish recovery can be seen off 1.4075.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.4220 and 1.4360 is mandatory to bring bullish strength into the market again. The first bullish target is seen at 1.4615.

During 2015, significant bearish rejection has been expressed around 1.5770 and 1.5230 where a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was formed. Since then, the market has been trending downwards within the depicted bearish channel.

The level of 1.4950 was broken to the downside few weeks ago, constituting a significant supply level. As anticipated, it offered a valid sell entry on December 24.

Daily persistence below 1.4800 (the lower limit of the current bearish channel) favored a bearish decline towards 1.4680 and 1.4610 where previous prominent bottoms are located on the GBP/USD daily chart.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold as it is being pushed further below the prominent demand levels of 1.4620, 1.4360, and 1.4220.

That is why any signs of bullish rejection around the depicted demand level of1.4220 should be considered a valid buy signal.

Trading Recommendation:

Risky traders can have a valid buy entry when the GBP/USD pair maintains a daily closure above the level of 1.4220.

Trading Recommendation:

Risky traders can have a valid buy entry when the GBP/USD pair maintains a daily closure above the level of 1.4220.

S/L should be located below 1.4150 to minimize our risks.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.4360, 1.4440 and 1.4500.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Previously, the EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997) where bullish recovery was initiated.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October and November) reflected strong bearish pressure around the level of 1.1450.

A long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0570 occurs before the end of this month (January).

On August 24, the EUR/USD pair looked overbought as the market spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish pressure. An intraday sell entry was suggested. All T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

One month ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 and 1.0700 (key levels) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (prominent monthly level) where the recent bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.0800 and 1.1000.

During the last few weeks, the level of 1.1000 was considered to be a significant supply level to offer a valid sell entry. Moreover, a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was established around the mentioned supply level.

The previous bearish closure below 1.0800 (the reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the depicted reversal pattern. An estimated bearish target is located at 1.0620.

Today, bearish persistence below 1.0800 (neckline of the depicted reversal pattern) is mandatory to allow more bearish decline to occur towards 1.0730, 1.0620, and 1.0570.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Januari 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, economic news on the Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI is due to be released. The US will deliver economic data on the CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0905.

Strong Resistance:1.0899.

Original Resistance: 1.0888.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0877.

Target Inner Area: 1.0852.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0827.

Original Support: 1.0816.

Strong Support: 1.0805.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0799.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Januari 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the US will deliver some economic data on the CB Leading Index m/m, Existing Home Sales, and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 118.21.

Resistance. 2: 117.98.

Resistance. 1: 117.74.

Support. 1: 117.46.

Support. 2: 117.23.

Support. 3: 117.00.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The NZD/USD pair is expected to find minor support at the level of 0.6512 (a daily pivot point) considering strong support at 0.6437, which represents the weekly support this week. So, the strong support will set at the spot of 0.6437 and 0.6400 today. Besides, you have to consider the level of 0.6606, which represents strong resistance and a double top at the same time. We expect a range about 105 pips today. The market will probably indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.6510 and the weekly pivot point will act as minor support around the area of 0.6512. So, according to the previous events, the price is likely to move above the level of 0.6512. From the source previously mentioned, the area above 0.6512 looks for a further upside move with the first target at 0.6565 and continue towards 0.6606.

Intraday technical levels:

• R3: 0.6728
• R2: 0.6647
• R1: 0.6583
• PP: 0.6502
• S1: 0.6438
• S2: 0.6357
• S3: 0.6293

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• According to previous events, we expect a wider trading range today because the market showed sins of high volatility yesterday. Hence, this range will probably start from the level of 1.0880 in order to continue towards the strong support at 1.0780. Additionally, the volatility was found at 210.50. Therefore, the market indicates the higher volatility. The first strong support is found at 1.0780 and the double bottom was formed at 1.0777. Moreover, the weekly support 2 is seen at the level of 1.0721.

Trading recommendations:

• The EUR/USD pair is still moving between 1.0880 and 1.0721.
• Below the level of 1.0880, look for moving further downside with 1.0780 and it might resume to 1.0721 in order to test the weekly support 2. However, stop loss must set above the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.0925.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

The USDX had a very volatile session on Thursday, as the index did a strong pullback after a bullish momentum gained above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. However, the moving average is still acting as dynamic support and a push higher could move the index to the level of 100.00 in order to test it in a mid-term term. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.22 / 99.49

H1 chart's support levels: 98.79 / 98.39

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USDX breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is seen at 99.22, take profit is at 99.49, and stop loss is at 98.94.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 22, 2016 Market Analysis Review

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD performed a strong rebound from the support level of 1.4080. Currently we can see a consolidation above the level of 1.4198. A breakout above the level of 1.4198 can push the pair towards the level of 1.4309, where the 200 SMA is located in this time frame. The MACD indicator is reaching overbought territories.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4309 / 1.4373

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4198 / 1.4080

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is found at 1.4198, take profit is at 1.4080, and stop loss is at 1.4309.

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

The silver price shows slight bullish bias to continue approaching from the 14.25 level, while the price is still confined inside the sideways range that appears on the chart. the range's lines are represented by the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance, which keeps the sideways move scenario valid until now. We are waiting for the price to exit this range and detect the next targets clearly. We remind you that breaching the 14.25 resistance will lead the price to achieve some gains that start at 14.67 followed by 15.30, while breaking the support will resume the main bearish track, the next target of which is located at 13.00. The silver price has been fluctuating negatively since morning to move near 13.96 again, and the price did not show any strong moves until now. It keeps the sideways trading scenario valid as it is without any changes, until the price manages to breach one of the key levels represented by the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance to detect the next targets clearly. The expected trading range for today is between the 13.65 support and 14.40 resistance.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

We remain cautious on strong support at 116.13 moving downside. Price actions at 125.85 are viewed as a sideways consolidation pattern. Above 118.10, minor resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the upside support ( 120.33) turned resistance first. Nonetheless, a sustained breakout of 116.13 will indicate that there is a deeper medium-term correction. At this point, we consider this pattern to be sideways and expect strong support around 116.13 to keep moving downside. However, a sustained breakout of 116.13 will indicate that the corrective fall from 125.85 would extend to 38.2% retracement of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 at 106.63 and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.05; (P) 116.86; (R1) 117.75;

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

GGBP/JPY continues to fall and reaches as low as 164.68 so far. The long-term Fibonacci level at 165.67 has been already hit. An intraday bias remains on the downside for 161.8% projection of 195.86 to 180.36 from 188.79 at 163.71 next. A break will target 200% projection at 157.79. On the upside, above 169.09 minor resistance the bias will turn neutral and bring consolidation. A fall from 195.86 is currently viewed as a correction. A 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67 is already met. Based on the current momentum, the correction is likely to extend to 61.8% retracement at 147.01 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.53; (P) 167.31; (R1) 168.29;

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD Overview:

On December 30, a significant bearish rejection took place around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken to the downside as well.

The depicted chart illustrates a double-top reversal pattern. The depicted support level at 0.6430 should be broken downwards in order to confirm the reversal pattern.

However, Traders should note that the level of 0.6400-0.6350 constitutes a significant support zone, which corresponds to the backside of the broken downtrend line.

Hence, both a strong bullish rejection and a valid buy entry were expected in the zone of 0.6400-0.6380. Significant bullish rejection was manifested on the daily chart yesterday (a bullish daily hammer candlestick).

Today, bullish persistence above 0.6430 and 0.6490 is mandatory to push the pair towards higher bullish targets.

On the other hand, a bearish daily closure below 0.6400 opens the way towards 0.6250 again (multiple previous bottoms).

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

USD/CAD overview:

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart). A long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270.

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Since then, another consolidation range was established between 1.2800 and 1.3400.

A few weeks ago, a bearish breakout below the support level of 1.3075 was needed to enable a further bearish decline to take place towards 1.2900. However, an evident bullish rejection was expressed around this level.

A bullish breakout above 1.3400 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market on December 7.

A bullish visit towards the resistance level of 1.4150 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expected as a result of a bullish breakout above 1.3400.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4600-1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where bearish rejection should be expected.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for valid buy entries if bearish correction occurs.

Trading recommendations:

As we expected, a valid sell entry was offered around 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion). It's already running in profits now.

S/L should be located above 1.4700. Next T/P levels should be located at 1.4350,1.4280, and 1.4150.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish engulfing candlestick closure below the level of 1.4100 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) to sell the USD/CAD pair. S/L should be located above 1.4150.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Weekly Chart:

Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area of 1.5900, which provided significant bearish resistance.

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing candles closing below the level of 1.5220 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

A quick bearish decline towards the previous weekly level of 1.4950 was expected as a result of the bearish breakdown below 1.5200.

Extensive bearish pressure has been applied to many demand levels located at 1.4620, 1.4360, and 1.4220. All of them have been broken to the downside.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold as it is being pushed further below the prominent demand levels at 1.4620, 1.4360, and 1.4220.

The next demand zone to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.3840-1.3660, which corresponds to previous bottoms established back in May 2009.

That is why any signs of bullish rejection around the next demand level of 1.3840 should be considered a valid buy signal.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Monthly chart:

Previously, the EUR/USD pair moved lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established in January 1997) where bullish recovery was initiated.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October and November) reflected strong bearish pressure around the level of 1.1450.

A long-term projected target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakout below the monthly demand level of 1.0570 occurs before the end of this month (January).

Daily chart :

On August 24, the EUR/USD pair looked overbought as the market spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish pressure. An intraday sell entry was suggested. All T/P levels located at 1.1150 and 1.1050 were already reached.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

One month ago, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 and 1.0700 (key levels) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (prominent monthly level) where the recent bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.0800 and 1.1000.

During the last few weeks, the level of 1.1000 was considered to be a significant supply level to offer a valid sell entry. Moreover, a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was established around the mentioned supply level.

The previous bearish closure below 1.0800 (the reversal pattern neckline) confirmed a depicted reversal pattern. An estimated bearish target is located at 1.0620

Today, bearish persistence below 1.0800 (neckline of the depicted reversal pattern) is mandatory to allow more bearish decline to occur towards 1.0730, 1.0620, and 1.0570.

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Gold analysis for January 21 , 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,099.00. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak demand bar with weak a close. Also, the price rejected our 100SMA at the level of $1,107.00. Buying at this stage looks risky since the price is at the resistance level. An intraday trend is upward but short-term and mid-term trends are still bearish. According to the M5 time frame, I saw potential changing in trend dynamic from upward to downward. Downward support is found at the levels of $1,096.00, $1,092.00, and $1,085.00. The resistance level is set around the area of $1,115.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,106.90

R2: 1,109.00

R3: 1,113.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,099.00

S2: 1,096.50

S3: 1,093.00

Trading recommendations: watch for potential selling opportunities, buying looks risky.

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6785 in a high volume. In the daily time frame, the price is above all the key MAs: 50SMA,100SMA,150SMA, and 200SMA. Also, the price rejected 10SMA in the daily time frame, which is a sign of strength and lack of professional selling. In the H1 time frame, I found a strong upward trend and successful rejection from 200SMA. The resistance level is seen at 1.7260. Today, the data on the Interest Rate Decision and ECB's meeting is due to be released. So, trading ahead of these events may be risky. Watch post reaction and establish your positions. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7180

R2: 1.7265

R3: 1.7405

Support levels:

S1: 1.6900

S2: 1.6810

S3: 1.6670

Trading recommendations:Trading recommendations: the short-term trend is still upward. So, watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• TThe USD/CAD pair has broken major resistance at 1.4385. Now the level of 1.4385 acts as support for this week. Besides, the weekly pivot point is set at 1.4385 and the pair is now approaching it to test it. Therefore, the pair will probably start a upward movement in this area and recover again. So, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity at the levels of 1.4400 or 1.4450. Buy in this area with the first target at 1.4555 and continue towards 1.4631. Moreover, in case the market is be able to break the first weekly resistance of 1.4631, then the market will climb towards the double top at 1.4698. The weekly resistance 2 sets at the level of 1.4706. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at 1.4385, it will be profitable to set the stop loss below the weekly pivot (1.4385 ) for that the best location for placing stop loss should be at the level of 1.4366.

Trading recommendations:

• According to previous events, the USD/CAD pair will probably move between 1.4425 and 1.4631.
• Buy above the level of 1.4425 with the first target at 1.4555, it might resume to 1.4631.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overall, EUR/USD has been moving sideways ranging from 1.0800 to 1.0950 without any clear signs of direction. However, the recent channel breakout to the upside could indicate that the price is finally ready to move higher.

The Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point shows that S1 support level (1.0860) has been rejected, while R2 resistance (1.0950) has been broken. That could lead to the EUR/USD pair growth towards one of the resistance levels, either R3 (1.1000) or R4 (1.1090).

Consider buying EUR/USD while the price remains near S1 support, with the first target at R3 and second at R4. The stop loss should be just below the S2 support (1.0800).

Support: 1.0860, 1.0800

Resistance: 1.0900, 1.0950, 1.1000, 1.1090

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Technical analysis of CAD/CHF for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

CAD/CHF is still moving clearly downwards within the descending channel without any signs of a potential reversal to the upside just yet. The pair is hitting new lower lows and lower highs. It is likely to produce another strong wave down.

After a breakout of the strong support at 0.6960, the price faced resistance at the same level, which was rejected for few times now. The Fibonacci applied to the first corrective wave up followed a breakout of support at 0.6960 indicates that the final target is seen near 0.6770, which has not been tested yet.

Consider selling CAD/CHF while the price is near R1 (0.6960), targeting S4 support area (0.6770) which is 361.8% Fibs. The stop loss should be well above R1.

Support: 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6825, 0.6770

Resistance: 0.6960

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The The GBP/USD pair was not stable and the trend was not also so clear as well (tight sideways range has been observed since yesterday). But the trend has been calling for the strong bearish market from the area of 1.4241. Moreover, minor support sets at the level of 1.4137. According to the previous events, the price is likely to move between the level of 1.4241 and 1.4137. So, we should be careful trading in this area. Therefore, wait for a period of tight sideways range market before any breakouts. Then, the market is likely to start showing bearish signs from the support level of 1.4137. In other words, it will be fruitful to sell below 1.4137 with the first target at 1.4065. The pair will continue dropping towards 1.4020 in order to test the weekly support two. However, if the pair does not break 1.4137, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above this support in the short term. Also, the support will be set at the levels of 1.4137/1.4130. Probably, the market will call for an uptrend from the level of 1.4137. Overall, the market remains bearish, so you have to sell below the strong resistance of 1.4241 and resell below the currently support of 1.4130 with targets at 1.4065 and 1.4020. On the other hand, stop loss must be set at 1.4275 this week.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is under pressure. Overnight, major US stock indices dived along with oil prices, but managed to finish the session well above their lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point lost over 500 points or 3.2%. While energy shares continued trading lower, healthcare and biotech stocks posted gains. Nymex crude oil slumped another 6.7% to $26.55 per barrel. The DJIA dropped 1.6% to 15,766, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% to 1,859, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.1% to 4,471.

Gold rose 1.3% to $1,100 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.982% from 2.038% in the previous session.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD declined 0.5% to 1.4501, the first daily drop in 2016, as Canada's central bank decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. At the same time, AUD/USD edged up less than 0.1% to 0.6906 and NZD/USD gained 0.3% to 0.6429. This morning the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened further. The pair keeps trading on the downside while being capped by the descending 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. The relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50 lacking upward momentum. With such a bearish intraday outlook, the pair is expected to decline towards the first downside target at 116.20 (around the low of January 19).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.20. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 115.95. The pivot point stands at 117.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 118.10 and the second target at 118.35.

Resistance levels: 118.10, 118.35, 118.75

Support levels: 116.20, 115.95, 115.45

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is seen at 1.0090. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest resistance of 1.0090, and is likely to post a new decline. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited. The relative strength index is mixed, but lacks upward momentum. The pair may re-test its nearest support level at 1.00. The risk of a slide below this threshold remains high. Our next downward target is seen at 0.9955.

Trading reccomendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.00. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9955. The pivot point stands at 1.0090. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0140 and the second target at 1.0179.

Resistance levels: 1.0140, 1.0170, 1.0210

Support levels: 1.00, 0.9955, 0.99

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is turning upwards hitting its strong support area around 0.6345. The 20-period moving average has clearly reversed up, and also broken above the 50-period one generating a positive signal. The relative strength index is well directed above its 70% area, which suggests that the pair may be overbought at the current stage. Nevertheless, as long as 0.6385 (our stop loss) is not broken, a further advance to 0.6475 and 0.6510 is expected.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6475 and the second target at 0.6510. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6345 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6300. The pivot point is at 0.6385.

Resistance levels: 0.6475,0.6510, 0.6540

Support levels: 0.6345, 0.63, 0.6275

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is seen at 166.90. The pair stays below its key resistance at 166.90 and remains under pressure. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 163.95. A breakout below this level would open the way to further weakness toward 163.25.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 163.95. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 163.25. The pivot point stands at 166.90. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 168.20 and the second target at 169.

Resistance levels: 168.20, 169, 169.85

Support levels: 163.95, 163.25, 162.45

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Global macro overview for 21/01/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/01/2016:

The UK labor data was published yesterday. The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in almost a decade. The current unemployment rate is 5.1% (down from 5.2%). As a result, the employment rate rose to 74.0%, which is the highest level since records began in 1971. There were 267K people with jobs. In overall, the number of employed people rose by 588K compared to the reporting period of the last year. Moreover, the wages grew 1.9% and earnings rose 2.0%. However, in spite of the strong data from the UK labor market, BoE governor Mark Carney still considers the weak wage growth to be the main factor preventing the regulator from the immediate interest rate hike.

The GBP/USD pair is still hovering in the narrow range zone between the levels of 1.4125 (support) and 1.4236 ( resistance). No signs of downtrend reversal are seen yet.

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Global macro overview for 21/01/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/01/2016:

The most anticipated fundamental event of the week will take place today at 01:30 GMT when the ECB announces its interest rate decision together with deposit facility rate. Market participants expect the ECB to leave the rate unchanged a the level of 0.05% and the same view is shared for the deposit facility rate (unchanged at the level of -0.30%). Some analysts think the ECB will add additional stimulus next week. The main reason behind that anticipation is turmoil in the Chinese market that started a major sell-off in global stock markets along with a recent drop in oil prices. Booth events will continue to put downward pressure on inflation rate, so the ECB might implement even more serious measures in March after the possible QE extension in December.

The EUR/USD pair bounced from the trend-line support, but is currently trading inside the range, waiting for the ECB's news event. Support is seen at the level of 1.0859 and next resistance is seen at the level of 1.0992.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/01/2016:

The wave (v) target was missed by 25 pips. Nevertheless, the market is still developing according to the scenario. Currently, the three-wave correction has been made and the market is trying to bounce from intraday support at the level of 1.4429. Please notice that the price is still below the golden channel trend line and only a breakout higher above this line will be in line with our bullish scenario. Moreover, the wave 4 cycle might get more complex and time-consuming as the invalidation level is seen at 1.4187.

Support/Resistance:

1.4835 - WR1

1.4690 - Local High

1.4602 - Intraday Resistance

1.4537 - Intraday Resistance

1.4445 - Weekly Pivot

1.4429 - Intraday Support

Trading recommendations:

Buying on dips is the correct way to trade on this market until the trend reversal.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/01/2016:

The higher time frame cycle still indicates that the current bullish scenario is valid. The complex corrective structure is about to be completed or it was already completed and the next wave development should be started to the upside. The first clue supporting this scenario will be a bullish breakout above the golden trend line.

Support/Resistance:

126.37 - WS2

126.84 - WS1

126.78 - Technical Support

127.29 - Intraday Support

127.78 - Weekly Pivot

128.29 - WR1

129.07 - Intraday Resistance

129.25 - WR2

129.61 - Wave c Target Projection

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should refrain from trading and wait for a better trading setup to occur.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The bias is neutral in the near term, just like in the USD/CHF pair. It might be wise to stay away from this market now. But a breakout to the upside or to the downside is likely to lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern or a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.

USD/CHF: The bias is neutral in the near-term because the pair has not performed any strong directional movement in recent times. There are short-term upswings and downswings in the market, but a predictable directional movement is anticipated this week or next week, which would most probably favor bears.

GBP/USD: The cable has found strong support around the accumulation territory of 1.4150, and as a result the market has begun to consolidate. This is a normal pause in the context of a strong downtrend, and when another movement resumes, it would most probably be in favor of bears. Fundamental figures, which are due to be released today, could have some impact on the market.

USD/JPY: This pair has already tested the demand level of 116.00. The demand level could be tested again and if that happens, the price is likely to continue trending further downwards south towards another demand level of 115.50. The price is under the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is under the level of 50, which means bears have an upper hand at the moment.

EUR/JPY: This cross moved lower, following a bullish attempt we saw yesterday. The lower movement is in conjunction with the dominant bearish bias in the market, which means that the bullish effort we saw was a good opportunity to go short. The price could reach the demand zone around 126.50.

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USDX technical analysis for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index remains above short-term support trading sideways. A trend is neutral, but we will see some action soon as market participants are eagerly awaiting Mario Draghi's comments.

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and still inside an upward sloping red channel I showed yesterday. There is no clear short-term trend while the medium-term trend remains bullish. Resistance is found at 99.30 today.

Blue lines - bearish wedge

The daily chart remains bullish as the price is still above the Ichimoku cloud support at 98.80 and still inside the wedge pattern and lower support at 98.50. Resistance is seen at 99.35. If it gets broken, we should expect a move towards 99.80.

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Gold technical analysis for January 21, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Gold price reached a new short-term high yesterday and the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This keeps bulls hopes for $1,120 alive. A trend remains sideways to up and there are more chances for an upward move than bearish reversal.

Red lines - bullish channel

Gold price is moving towards higher highs and higher lows. Important short-term support levels are seen at $1,080 and at $1,072. Breaking below these levels will open the way for a push to the area around the level of $1,000.

The weekly chart remains supported by increasing chances of retesting the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Support is found at $1,070. Stochastics and RSI are positively sloped leaving behind the oversold levels. We still do not observe any overbought signs .The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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