Thursday 20 November 2014

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 17/11/2014 07:40 CET:


Five wave impulsive sequence might be completed here at the level of 146.51. Now, at least three wave corrective cycles should start, but the confirmation comes first with the level of 144.71 breakout. Then, intraday golden trend line breakout would be possible as well. Nevertheless, the last wave to the upside might not have been completed as blue wave 4 is still a rather small corrective wave when compared to the other corrective cycle inside the progression. That would mean, the current downward wave might be purple wave c of the overall quite irregular flat corrective cycle in blue wave 4. Traders need to wait until the market confirms/invalidates this scenario.


Support/Resistance:


149.04 - WR2


148.01 - WR1


146.51 - Swing High


145.02 - Weekly Pivot


144.71 - Technical Support


143.93 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


It looks that at least in the short term the market favours the sell side and this kind of orders should be placed in this pair. The SL level should be placed above the level of 146.51 and TP at the level of 143.32.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/11/2014 07:50 CET


The corrective cycle is developing just as anticipated. Now, the question remains whether this corrective wave (iv) green has been completed or if this is only the beginning of more complex and time-consuming corrective cycle in shape of a triangle. So far, the price action that would confirm the bottom in wave (iv) green and immediate trend reversal would be an impulsive wave progression to the upside, that would easily violate the golden channel and make a new high above the level of 149.15. On the other hand, any new low below the level of 147.46 would mean the market might make more complex and time-consuming correction. The key level here that should act as support is the level of 146.53.


Support/Resistance:


151.50 - 152.60 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Typical)


149.37 - 149.57 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Minimum)


152.02 - WR3


149.14 - Local High


149.05 - WR2


148.37 - Intraday Resistance


148.01 - WR1


147.46 - Intraday Support


146.53 - Technical Support


145.02 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


As advised yesterday, the first level to join the uptrend should be at the level of 147.42. There is nothing wrong to still keep this trade running, but please set the SL rather tight, like 20-30 pips for intraday trading as the corrective cycle might get more complex if the intraday support is violated. TP level should be placed at the level of 148.37 - 149.57 zone.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/11/2014 07:30 CET


The corrective cycle looks like it has been completed and if the count is correct the market should be ready to continue to the downside. Currently, the market consolidates around the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1313. If the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1367 is not violated, the odds favor the downside here. If the intraday support at the level of 1.1259 will not hold, then the next support comes at the level of 1.1224, so quite close to the anticipated technical support level and invalidation line at the level of 1.1220.


Support/Resistance:


1.1120 - Wave 4 Blue Low


1.1173 - WS2


1.1224 - WS1


1.1265 - Technical Support


1.1291 - Intraday Support


1.1311 - Weekly Pivot


1.1369 - Intraday Resistance


1.1394 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Line


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should still keep the running sell orders with SL just above the level of 1.1394 and TP at the level of 1.1220. If you want to lock some partial profits, then please move the SL just above the level of 1.1315.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair hits fresh highs at sub 149.00 levels yesterday before pulling back. The current fall can still be considered just a pullback since the pair remains comfortably in the buy zone of the immediate trend line support. The pair has bounced off the 147.47 levels for now which is fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between 145.00 and 149.00. Please note that 146.40/50 levels should be strong support for any further dips, since it is a convergence of trend line support, past resistance turned support and fibonacci 0.618 support. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities there.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now, look for buying opportunities at 146.40/50 levels.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair looks to have bottomed out for now around the 1.4950/60 levels as seen here. The pair is trading at 1.5020/30 levels for now and is expected to push higher in the sessions to come. Minimum upside extensions could be the 1.5300 level, which is support turned resistance as depicted by an arrow here. Please note that if prices break above 1.5450 levels, it would be a confirmation that bulls are back in control and higher highs are expected. On the flip side, a bearish reaction around 1.5300, could indicate that the bearish move could extend below 1.4950 levels. It is recommended to remain long, with risk below 1.4950 in anticipation of at least a pullback rally.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 1.4910, the target is open for now.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Silver for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver trades around $16.20/25 levels for now after bouncing off from $15.90 levels yesterday. The metal could push above $16.40/50 levels in the sessions to come. Support is seen at $15.90(interim), followed by $15.30, $15.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.30, followed by $17.50, $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. It is still recommended to remain long, risk at $15.30. The metal could have possibly formed a higher low at $15.90 and be looking to push through $16.40 levels. The potential upside extensions are $17.00 and $17.30. On the flip side, a break below $15.30 and subsequently $15.00 would be extremely bearish for the metal.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop at $15.00, the target remains open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold seems to have formed a higher low at $1,175.00 levels yesterday. The metal has bounced off, back into the $1,190.00/95.00 region and is looking to push higher, through the $1,204.00/05.00 levels. Resistance is seen at $1,205.00 (interim), followed by $1,235.00/40.00, followed by $1,250.00/55.00, $1,276.00 and higher respectively. A push through the $1,208.00/10.00 level, would open doors towards $1,240.00 and $1,255.00 levels as next extensions. On the flip side, a bearish reaction at $1,208.00, could turn the metal lower towards fresh lows. Bulls are likely to remain under control till prices remain above $1,140.00 levels for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $1,140.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair is consolidating between 20Dsma and 50Dsma with lower lows and higher highs. In case if the pair closes below 0.9500 on a daily basis, it can extend its fall towards 0.9440 and 0.9400. The prices are trading near a 2-week trend line support at 0.9557 and 0.9530. In case an hour candle closes below 0.9530, we can expect another 100 pips correction. The prices are closed and trading below 12ema and 34hrsma. In case the prices manage to trade above 0.9610, the pair can challenge 0.9755, 0.9689, and 0.9700. These views are valid only for hourly and intraday perspective. On a positional basis, in case the price closes above 0.9688 on a weekly closing basis, it can challenge 0.9800, 0.9840,0.9970, and 1.017. The parallel monthly resistance exists at 0.9751. Currently, the pair is trading at a 2-weeks low. 0.9700 is still a resistance, but we can say it is a top on a closing basis unless we see a close below 0.9361. If not, it can shoot above 0.9700 levels.


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Technical Analysis on Gold for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The yellow metal continues to challenge at 34dsma and support taking near DEMA. The metal has been trading below the non-profit level of $1,200.00. In the US, CPI data met the expectations, Philadelphia-area factory gauge data soared and the unemployment claims almost unchanged. The US economy is moving at a good pace. Lower yellow metal prices could put pressure on the gold mine production, especially in South Africa. The longer-term picture favors some more downside from the current levels. The gold has been facing strong multiple resistance at $1,197.00. In the hourly chart, the prices are make higher high and higher low formation. This formation will be eliminated in case if the price falls below $1,172.00. We recommend fresh selling below $1,188.00, selling pressure will become stronger below $1,186.00. We can observe distribution patterns in the hourly charts. We can expect $20 or 30$ sudden fall or rise in case the metal comes out of the tight trading range. We can expect a steep fall below $1,146.00. On the upside, resistance exists at $1,197.00 and $1,204.00. In late November, the Swiss referendum will show immediate impact on gold prices. A yes vote will ignite the bullish rally in the short term, but chances are remote.


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Technical Analysis on GBP/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The cable managed to post small gains after the busy key results day. The UK retail sales rebound strongly in October. The sales volumes rose by 0.8%, led by furniture purchases. In the US, CPI data met the expectations, Philadelphia-area factory gauge data soared and the unemployment claims almost unchanged. The weekly returns turn to positive after a consecutive 4-week decline. At yesterday's session, the cable rejected at 50hrsma. The cable has been trading in a tight range between 1.5736 and 1.5590. In case an hourly candle closes above 1.5740, the cable can challenge 1.5760 and 1.5800 levels. The prices are trading and closed above 12ema and 34hrsma levels. We recommend fresh selling below 1.5660. Either side break from the tight trading range will give room of 100 or 140 pips in intraday. In case a daily close is below 1.5590, the cable can extend its downtrend towards 1.5460, 1.5450, and 1.5430. The prices are taking support at 1.5590, we can call it a minor double bottom. The prices are making lower highs in the hourly chart.


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Technical Analysis on EUR/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The greenback again is back on the rails with the Philadelphia-area factory gauge data. The Euro was rejected against the US dollar at the previous session. The pair fell below the 20Dsma but managed to close above that. Stronger US data supported the dollar to move higher against the Euro. The pair took the support at 100hrsma or 1.2500, below this 1.2487 is a major support. As of now, today the pair is making higher lows and higher highs. The selling pressure will ignite below 1.2440 and panic will be triggered below 1.2395. As we recommended earlier, sell on every upswing with the downside initial targets at 1.2300 and 1.2230. The monthly resistance exists at 1.2757 and monthly support exists at 1.2227. Today, traders are focused on Draghi speech. Ahead of the event, the pair is trading light with a positive bias. We didn't get clear direction after yesterday's economic data. The pair is trading in a tight range between 1.2610 and 1.2490. In case if the prices drop below 1.2490, it can extend its fall up to 1.2440 and 1.2400 levels. Traders can wait patiently for a clear direction and perfect trade.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today, the economic calendar of Europe and the US lack any reports. So, considering this fact, there is probability the EUR/USD pair will move with low volatility during the trading day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2608.

Strong Resistance:1.2601.

Original Resistance: 1.2588.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2575.

Target Inner Area: 1.2545.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2515.

Original Support: 1.2502.

Strong Support: 1.2489.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2482.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today, both Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 118.07.

Resistance. 2: 117.84.

Resistance. 1: 117.61.

Support. 1: 117.33.

Support. 2: 117.10.

Support. 3: 116.86.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Daily analysis of USDX for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

At the H4 chart, the USDX has still been following the bullish trend line at the support level of 87.35. However, the USDX has formed several fractals at the resistance level of 87.93, so this instrument has lost bullish force in the medium term and eventually the USDX could fall to the level of 86.75 next week.


H4chart's resistance levels: 87.93 / 88.19


H4chart's support levels: 87.35 / 87.00


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The USDX made a pullback to the resistance level of 87.86, which caused a drop to the support level of 87.58. In this area, the 200 SMA is located on the H1 chart. If the USDX manages to support a breakout at that level, the next target would be the 87.28 level. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 87.86 / 88.15


H1 chart's support levels: 87.58 / 87.28


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 87.86, take profit is at 88.15, and stop loss is at 87.57.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The GBP/USD pair remains above the support level of 1.5642, where this pair made a rebound. So, this pair is likely to go up to the resistance level of 1.5746. However, it should be emphasized that the GBP/USD pair is forming a bearish pattern. In case of a breakout at the level of 1.5643, this pair will probably touch the support level of 1.5506. Now, the GBP/USD pair remains below the 200 SMAin the daily chart.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5746 / 1.5883


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5642 / 1.5506


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair made a pullback to the 200-day moving average. As the pair has consolidated above the support level of 1.5686, a bullish consolidation above the resistance level of 1.5739 could endanger the overall current bearish trend in GBP/USD, at least in the medium term. The MACD indicator is moving into the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5739 / 1.5810


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5686 / 1.5632


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5686, take profit is at 1.5632, and stop loss is at 1.5739.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: Bulls have been making sincere effort to push the price upwards since last week. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which would become stronger as the price manages to cross the resistance line at 1.2600 to the upside, closing above it. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is not too far from the overbought region. The price could become stronger.


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USD/CHF: There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in this market, which would become stronger as the price manages to cross the support level at 0.9550 to the downside, closing below it. Any movement below the support level at 0.9550 would mean the beginning of a nice bearish run.


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GBP/USD: Despite the stubbornness of bulls, the dominant bias is bearish. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart would be valid as long as the price is under the distribution territory at 1.5800.


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USD/JPY: The outlook on this pair is also bullish – as it is true for most other JPY pairs. The recommended trading approach would be a buy-on-the-dip one. This pair would continue going upwards till it tests the supply level at 119.50.


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EUR/JPY: There is now a shallow pullback on the EUR/JPY (which has moved upwards by over 400 pips this week). The pullback gave a good opportunity to go long when the price was temporarily lower in the context of an uptrend – for the price is bound to trade higher. The next target is at the supply zone of 150.00, which would be attained this week or next week.


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USDCAD Daily Analysis - November 21, 2014 Forex Analysis

After touching the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, USDCAD pulled back from 1.1369, indicating that the pair remains in downtrend from 1.1466. Further decline would likely be seen, and next target would be at 1.1200 area. Resistance is now at 1.1369, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.1600.



usdcad chart






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USDCHF Daily Analysis - November 21, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF stays below the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.9739, the rise from 0.9531 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 0.9500 area. On the uppside, a clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 0.9531 already, then the following upward move could bring price to 1.0000 area.



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USDJPY Daily Analysis - November 21, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY stays in the upward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 105.32, the fall from 118.97 is likely conolidation of the uptrend. Support is at the bottom of the channel, as long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 120.00 area. On the downside, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that lengthier consolidation of the uptrend is underway, then deeper decline to test 115.45 support could be seen.



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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - November 21, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD is facing 0.8540 support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the downtrend from 0.8910 has resumed, then next target would be at 0.8400 area. Resistance is at 0.8670, as long as this level holds, the downtrend from 0.8795 will continue.



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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - November 21, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD stays below the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 1.6182, and the rise from 1.5590 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Resistance is at the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and next target would be at 1.5400 area. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.



gbpusd chart






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EURUSD Daily Analysis - November 21, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.2358, the fall from 1.2599 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Support is located at the rising trend line on 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.2650 area. On the other side, a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that the uptrend from 1.2358 had completed at 1.2599 already, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.2000 area.



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high 118.25 this morning. FOMC October meeting minutes released overnight were relatively uneventful after providing little insight into whether the pledge to keep rates low for a "considerable period" would be scrapped at the next meeting. Still, the Fed minutes reinforced views that the U.S. central bank remains on track to raise rates ahead of central banks in Europe and Japan. USD/JPY is underpinned by the weak yen sentiment after Bank of Japan on Wednesday decided to maintain its large-scale easing policy of pumping money into the economy at an annual pace of JPY80 trillion by an 8-1 vote, indicating more consensus among the policy board's nine members compared to the 5-4 vote at its previous meeting. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.359% versus 2.322% late Tuesday) and demand from Japan's importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales. No FX impact from mixed U.S. housing data as surprise 2.8% on-month drop in U.S. October housing starts (versus forecast for 0.8% increase) offset more-than-expected 4.8% rise in building permits (versus forecast +0.6%).


Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119 and the second target at 119.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.35. The pivot point is at 117.40.


Resistance levels:

119

119.70

120.35


Support levels:

116.75

116.35

116.05


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a three-week low at 0.9530 on Wednesday. CHF sentiment is boosted by the rise in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to minus 7.6 in November from minus 30.7 in October. USD/CHF is also weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical comments:

Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9555. The pivot point stands at 0.9605. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9625 and the second target at 0.9655.


Resistance levels:

0.9625

0.9655

0.9690



Support levels:
0.9555

0.9515

0.9785


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by weak dairy prices, 1.5% on-quarter drop in New Zealand 3Q producer input prices and 1.1% drop in output prices. FOMC October meeting minutes released overnight were relatively uneventful after providing little insight into whether the pledge to keep rates low for a "considerable period" would be scrapped at the next meeting. Still, the Fed minutes reinforced views that the U.S. central bank remains on track to raise rates ahead of central banks in Europe and Japan. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics turned bearish near the overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7820. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7790. The pivot point stands at 0.7880. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likly to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7920 and the second target at 0.7965.


Resistance levels:

0.7920

0.7965

0.8005

Support levels:

0.7820

0.7790

0.7750


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment, firmer EUR/USD undertone and demand from Japan's importers. Sterling sentiment was boosted by less-dovish-than-expected Bank of England MPC November meeting minutes showing a seven against two vote for leaving rates unchanged at 0.5% and deepening divisions among the seven-member majority who favored keeping rates on hold. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales.


Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 186.15 and the second target at 187. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 182.80. The pivot point is at 184.15.


Resistance levels:

186.15

187

187.75

Support levels:

183.35

182.80

182.35


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EUR/NZD : analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6035 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand on the market in a volume below average. The price rejected from our submajor Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.6035. I found the support level at the price of 1.5870. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5998


R2: 1.6042


R3: 1.6113


Support levels:


S1: 1.5857


S2: 1.5813


S3: 1.5743


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we may expect reaction from sellers


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Gold : analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,174.90 in a very high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume above average, which is a sign that we may see possible bearish movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,176.00 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,160.00 Anyway, my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish corrective phase (buy on the low).


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,200.45


R2: 1,207.01


R3: 1,217.63


Support levels:


S1: 1,179.21


S2: 1,172.65


S3: 1,162.03


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 150.00


R2: 149.52


R1: 149.13


Current spot: 148.78


S1: 148.33


S2: 147.83


S3: 147.44


Technical summary:


The direct break above resistance at 148.30 calls for an extension in wave v higher to 152.15. Double extensions in the currency market are a rare phenomenon, which of course signals strong underlying weakness. Short-term support is now found at 148.33 and again at 147.83, which ideally will protect the downside for the continuation higher towards the extension target at 152.15. At this point, on a break below 146.70 will indicate that wave v and (i) is over and a deeper correction towards 142.06 was unfolding.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 148.50 was hit for a loss. Trying to jump train now feels a little risky, so we will stay neutral for now.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General outlook for 20/11/2014 10:30 CET


The corrective cycle is still in progress but there are first clues that the downtrend might resume soon to complete the remaining waves in the downward cycle. Only a clear breakout above the level of 1.1394 would invalidate the current bearish outlook and put the recent swing highs into the test.


Support/Resistance:


1.1120 - Wave 4 Blue Low


1.1173 - WS2


1.1224 - WS1


1.1265 - Technical Support


1.1308 - Intraday Support


1.1311 - Weekly Pivot


1.1369 - Intraday Resistance


1.1394 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Line


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should keep the opened sell orders with SL just above the level of 1.1394 and TP at the level of 1.1220.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General outlook for 20/11/2014 10:00 CET


The corrective cycle has never appeared, so the count has been adjusted to incorporate new wave developments. The most difficult part of the new count has been labeled as Leading Diagonal wave -i- and this maneuver could include the new impulsive count into the wave progression. Moreover, one more impulsive cycle has been added to the overall count (purple count). Please notice all the corrective waves labeled as wave four of a various degree are very short in price and time. That is why the overall wave development might indicate the wave 3 black of a very large cycle is unfolding. Nevertheless, there is always a possibility that the whole impulsive wave progression as indicated by the alternative black labeling is really wave alt:5 of the very large impulsive structure forming the level of 94.22 that started in July 2012.


Currently one more wave is needed to complete the overall structure labeled as green impulsive wave progression with the projected target levels labeled as orange rectangles on H4 time frame chart.


Support/Resistance:


151.50 - 152.60 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Typical)


149.37 - 149.57 - Projected Target Level For Wave (v) Green (Minimum)


152.02 - WR3


149.14 - Local High


149.05 - WR2


148.34 - Intraday Support


148.01 - WR1


147.46 - Intraday Support


146.53 - Technical Support


145.02 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


The first level for day traders to join the up trend is the level of 148.01. Nevertheless, if this level is broken, then the next one should be at the level of 147.42. Please set the SL rather tight, like 20-30 pips for intraday trading and the TP level should be placed at the level of 148.37 - 149.57 zone.


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#USDX Technical analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index remains inside its sideways trading range. I do not expect the Dollar index to continue much longer inside this range but until it breaks out I need to remain patient and wait for a valid signal. The Dollar index remains in a longer-term up trend and has not given any signs that bulls should exit their long positions yet.


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Black line = support


Red line = resistance


The Dollar index contnues to trade on top of the Ichimoku cloud. The sideways consolidation could very well be a bullish flag within the longer-term bullish flag I have previously mentioned. If the Dollar index breaks above 88.15, we should expect an upward move towards 91. If the Dollar index breaks below 87, we should expect a pull back towards 86 at least.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


The Dollar index remains in a longer-term up trend and the ichimoku cloud indicators support this. The bullish flag pattern remains valid with 91 as my 1st target. Now, that we could have a smaller bullish flag inside this larger bullish flag, the bullish scenario has more chances of success than the bearish one (pull back towards 86 or lower).


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Gold Technical analysis for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price reversed strongly from the 61.8% retracement yesterday and broken short-term support levels. However, the price bounced back strongly to re-test $1,200 only to continue back below $1,190 today. The short-term trend is neutral. Breaking below $1,170 and $1,145 are the signs bears are looking for the resumption of the down trend. I remain longer-term bearish targeting $1,050.


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Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


Gold price is consolidating near its highs. Support today is at $1,170-74 and resistance at $1,204. From yesterday's high, Gold price is making lower lows and lower highs in the 30 minute chart I show above.


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Gold price has reached the 61.8% retracement and got rejected. However, price remains above the ichimoku cloud and above the black supportive trend line. The kijun-sen support is at $1,175. A 4-hour close below $1,175 will signal more downside is to expected towards at least $1,150. If support at $1,145 fails to hold prices and if Gold price breaks below the cloud, then I will have confirmation of the start of the new downward move towards $1,050.


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Technical analysis of Silver for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver looks to have done with its retracement at $15.70/80 levels as expected earlier. The metal could be looking to turn around and resume its rally from current levels, $16.15/20. It is still recommended to remain long and also look to add positions now, for higher upside targets towards $17.00 and $17.30 levels as shown here. Support is seen at $15.20/30, followed by $15.00 while resistance is seen at $16.50 (interim), followed by $17.30, $17.60/60, $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. A push above $16.50 from current levels would confirm that bulls are here to remain for a longer time.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $15.30, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of Gold for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has completed retracement around $1,175.00 levels for now and is looking to resume rally towards $1,208.00 and higher up. It is recommended to enter long positions now ($1,183.00), risk at $1,140.00. The metal could be seen targeting $1,208.00 levels at least and if breaks higher, then $1,250.00/60.00 could be well on cards. Support is seen at $1,140.00/45.00, followed by $1,030.00, while resistance is seen at $1,205.00 (interim), followed by $1,235.00, $1,250.00 and higher respectively. On the other hand, a bearish reaction at $1,208.00 could bring back bears in control and the metal could continue to slide below $1,030.00.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate long positions now at $1,1,83.00,stop $1,140.00, the target is open.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair is targeting fresh highs each trading day as seen here. The fibonacci extensions are pointing towards 150.00 and 153.00/154.00 as potential upside targets. It is recommended to buy on intraday/interday dips for now. Immediate support is seen at 145.00, followed by 143.00/142.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 150.00, followed by 154.00 (fibonacci extensions), respectively. Any dip or retracement towards 146.50 levels could be considered as an opportunity to initiate long positions, with risk below 145.00. Bulls seem to be in complete control for now and short selling should be avoided for now.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now, looking to go long around 146.50 levels.


Good luck!


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair breaks below 1.4975 mark and bounces off sharply towards 1.5020/30 levels as seen here. The expected fall from 1.5400/50 levels looks to be complete at least for now. A meaningful corrective rally could be underway any time now. Please note that the pair has also produced a morning star on the 4H view here, indicating a potential reversal ahead. Interim support is seen at 1.4950/40 while resistance is seen at 1.5300 (past support turned resistance), followed by 1.5450, 1.5475 and 1.5550 respectively. An aggressive way to trade could be to initiate long positions, risk below 1.4940.


Trading recommendations:


Aggressive trade is to go long now, stop at 1.4910, the target is open. Conservative trade is to remain flat and wait to sell higher.


Good luck!


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Technical Analysis on EUR/USD for November 20, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair closed with marginal profits in yesterday's session. After 14 sessions, the pair managed to closed above 20Dsma. The prices are facing resistance at 200hrsma and 200hrema at 1.2610, the pair made a high at 1.2600. We recommend fresh buying above 1.2620 with the targets at 1.2640 and 1.2680. The prices are taking support at intraday 12ema levels and hourly 34hrsma. The support levels exist at 1.2524 and 1.2513. We recommend speculative selling below 1.2500 with the targets at 1.2475 and 1.2445. The panic will be triggered below 1.2440 with the targets at 1.2415 and 1.2360. Ahead of the economic events, the cable is trading in a silent mode with negative shades. Today, traders are turning attention on US CPI and jobs data. In the euro region, French and Spanish manufacturing, flash services data will be published. Tomorrow, ECB president Draghi's speech will give clear direction for the near- and short-term basis. On the downside, the pair has support at 1.2350, below this, 1.2226 is the major support level.


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