Wednesday 18 December 2013

Gold: resistance at 1,267.00 for now Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The metal is subdued, after it touched the highs around 1,267.00 level for now. It is recommended to remain flat for now since there is an equal probability that the metal can follow both downtrend and uptrend. As seen here, temporary resistance comes in at 1,267/70 levels; while support comes in at 1,210.00 level. Pushing higher than 1,270.00 the price could see 1,300/50 levels; while a break below 1,210.00 would bring in the possibilities of fresh lows at 1,150.00 levels and lower. Please note that a multi-year resistance at 1,030/50 levels (2008) would be strong support now if prices reach there. On the other hand, a break above 1,300 and 1,350.00 would confirm that a bottom is in place and would change our strategy to buy on dips.


Trading Recommendations:


Flat for now.


Good Luck !


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EurJpy May Be Unfolding Into Head and Shoulder Reversal. Hold Short Positions Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair may be finally unfolding a reversal pattern (Head and Shoulder); but prices should remain below 142.80/90 swing highs for confirmation. It is therefore recommended to hold on short positions taken at 142.20 levels earlier; the risk goes to 143.20. As depicted here, the resistance is fixed at 142.80/90 levels (the recent swing highs); while support begins from just below 141.00 levels, followed by 138.50, 137.00, 134.00 and lower respectively. The overall structure reveals that a major resistance (Fibonacci extension) has been met at 142.80 levels recently and a meaningful pullback should be expected (weekly setup). Furthermore, a possible Head and Shoulder reversal is being setup and pushed below 141.00 levels and now should accelerate its fall.


Trade Recommendations:


Hold on to short positions from 142.20 levels, stop at 143.20, target open.


Good Luck !


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GbpChf Takes Out 1.44. Flat For Now Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


This pair is a "clear sell" on rallies setup as seen on the daily chart view here. We have been expecting a counter-trend rally which has unfortunately not materialized till now; furthermore, the prices have almost taken out support at 1.4350/1.44 levels. It is recommended to remain flat for now and turn trade strategy to sell on rallies from here on. Immediate support is at 1.4350, followed by 1.42 and 1.4; while resistances level starts from 1.4570/80 levels, followed by 1.47 and 1.49 respectively. The overall setup is indicative of the resumption of downtrend after prices turned back from 1.49 levels earlier. A counter-trend rally towards 1.47 levels would be ideal to build short entries.


Trade Recommendations:


Flat for now. Looking to sell higher.


Good Luck !


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#USDX Analysis for December 18, 2013 Trend News

The dollar index has not made much progress to the upside yesterday as all investors are waiting for the Fed's announcement today regarding the tapering possibility of the QE program. Volatility is at its lowest and that's why we expect volatility to rise tonight. Both short and long term trend remain down. Although we saw a couple days ago a small bullish sign, bulls will need more signs of strength for trend to reverse.



Even the MA has a neutral slope, something that supports our neutral stance. The current price action supports the possibility of an upward move towards 80.75 as prices seem to be supported for the time being. Don't forget that the decline has stopped right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 79-81,50 upward move. Soon we will see if this low is an important one and if the trend reverses upwards with 82.50 target or it will make new lower lows.



The dollar index remains inside the long-term downward sloping channel. Breaking below 79, will push the index towards 74-75. Bulls need to break above 80.50-81 in order to challenge the red area zone resistance so that our 82.50 target will be feasible. Concluding, we remain neutral with a small upward bias, waiting for the Fed's announcements to bring in volatility.


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