Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 134.71

R2: 134.00

R1: 133.58

Current Spot: 133.19

S1: 132.88

S2: 132.68

S3: 132.27

Technical Summary:

As we broke back below the neckline of the inverted S/H/S bottom, that was, of couse, invalidated and caused a deeper decline. However, the short-term count with the highest odds shows a possible new and even bigger inverted S/H/S bottom building (see the 15-minute chart below). To trigger this bottom, we need a break above 133.58 and more importantly a break above 134.00, which will call for a rally higher towards 135.32 on the way higher to 137.45.

The risk to the above scenario is a break below 132.88, that will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal we mentioned a few days ago. If this count becomes the preferred count we are only in wave ii and should see a deeper correction towards 132.11 and, maybe, even lower towards 131.43, before wave ii is over.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 133.60 with stop at 132.85. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 133.58 with the same stop at 132.85.

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#USDX Analysis for September 26, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index formed a bearish flag that we noted in yesterday's analysis, which should make us anticipate a break down in prices. Once the flag was broken, prices fell towards 80.30-20 and are now making a back test bounce. I expect the downtrend to resume soon towards 80.

The short-term resistance that could change short-term trend if broken is at the 80.60 price level. The trend is expected to continue downwards and if the low at 80.28 is broken, we could witness a downward acceleration towards 80. The main component of the Dollar Index is EURUSD and from its point of view things are pretty bearish for the Dollar.

Concluding, the upward bounce at the start of today's session is most probably a back test. I anticipate lower prices as long as 80.60 is not broken upwards. Support is now found at 80.30 that if broken will push prices lower towards 80.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 26, 2013 Trend News

Gold, as expected by our analysis, has started a small trend reversal with an upward direction. Prices have been supported at 1,300-1,320 and are now making a try to challenge the highs. Prices are forming a pattern with higher highs and higher lows. This confirms the short-term trend change to upward. We expected this bounce to come from this price area as the support at 1,300-1,310 was very important. Currently, trading near 1,337, Gold is possible to continue much higher as long as the support at 1,315-22 holds.

The downward move from 1,375 to 1,305 has a Fibonacci retracement of 61,8% and 50% at 1,347 and 1,341. These two levels are important resistance levels, and if they are broken upwards, the chances to break above 1,375 towards 1,400 will rise. The initial 5 waves up from 1,291 to 1,375 made us expect a short-term bottom near 1,320-1,310 and that is exactly what happened. Our wave analysis anticipates now another leg up similar to the first one from 1,291 to 1,375.

The daily chart shows clearly that 1,300 is important support and the next leg up could target once again the broken blue trendline as it did in the first upward move at 1,375. Now the target is near 1,390-1,400 and rising. However, we must focus on the price structure from 1,305 and when we see 5 waves up completed, we should exit whether the target was hit or not. Breaking below 1,300-1,290 will push the precious metal towards 1,250-1,200. Concluding we remain long as long as prices trade above the short-term support at 1,320 and the longer-term support at 1,300. Target is at 1,370-1,400.

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