03/10/14 ~ Best and Easy Analyst News

Monday 10 March 2014

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 11, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Trade Balance, ECOFIN Meetings.The US will release the economic data too such as the US-NFIB Small Business Index, US-JOLTS Job Openings, US-Wholesale Inventories m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3942.

Strong Resistance:1.3933.

Original Resistance: 1.3920.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3907.

Target Inner Area: 1.3874.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3841.

Original Support: 1.3828.

Strong Support: 1.3815.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3806.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3828 and 1.3920. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3815 and by 1.3933 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3806 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3942 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3841 and at 1.3907, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3874.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 11, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will release the M2 Money Stock y/y, Monetary Policy Statement, Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y, BOJ Press Conference and the US will release some economic data such as US-NFIB Small Business Index, US-JOLTS Job Openings, US-Wholesale Inventories m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.84.

Resistance. 2: 103.64.

Resistance. 1: 103.43.

Support. 1: 103.18.

Support. 2: 102.98.

Support. 3: 102.77.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.77) and resistance 3 (103.84). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For detail explanation and best discovery on market trends you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 11, 2014 . Thanks for your support on Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 11, 2014

Analysis of gold for March 11, 2014 Trend News

SELL GOLD IN THE RANGE OF $1,340-$1,355. SL IS AT $1,363.0

Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine had underpinned gold prices last week. U.S. President Barack Obama said that Crimea's referendum on seceding from Ukraine to join Russia is illegal and added that the U.S. and European Union are united against Russia's intervention in Ukraine. In case the situation worsens, then gold prices are expected to rise.

Traders will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. Gold prices are set to fall as the yellow metal's trend is expected to remain downward.

Technical view-

As we mentioned in yesterday's report, until gold breaks the $1,328.0 level, some pullback expected. Gold again entered into a selling zone. On an intraday basis, a move below the level of $1,337.0 looks weak towards $1,332.0 and $1,328.0.

Positional- sell on rallies. $1,355.0 is neckline resistance

S1 $1,328.0 R1 $1,355.0

S2 $1,318.0 R2 $1,362.0

S3 $1,310.0 R3 $1,395.0.

After a day close above the level of $1,355.0, we will see $1,362.0, $1,375.0, $1,395.0, $1,420.0, and $1,440.0 (if it trades above $1,363.0,then only we see higher levels).

joseph.nz@mail4.instaforex.com

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 11, 2014 Trend News

USD/JPY remains in uptrend from 101.20, the fall from 103.76 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Range trading between 102.60 and 103.76 would likely be seen. Support is at 102.60, as long as this level holds, another rise could be expected, and the next target would be at 104.50 area. Only a break below the 102.60 support will signal the completion of the uptrend from 101.20, then the following downward movement could bring price back towards 101.20, 100.76, and 98.00. Until the pair holds the previous low at 101.20, up move will continue up to 104.06 and 105.44.

POSITIONAL-

S1 103.00 R1 103.76

S2 102.57 R2 104.04

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 11, 2014 Trend News

In the H4 chart, we clearly see a breakout above the level of 1.1110. In yesterday's trading session, the pair made a high at 1.1131 and pulled back. The pair is forming a base around the level of 1.1092. In Asia on Tuesday, the pair again climbed back above the upper resistance line, which is a bull view. Now the level of 1.1103 is acting as good support. Until the price holds the level 1.10736, we will see the uptrend towards the level of 1.1160 and 1.1195. 1.10260 is the stop loss for this upside view.

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 11, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX is forming a higher low pattern near the 79.80 level. If the USDX manages to consolidate below the support level of 79.45, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.19. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 78.12. On the other hand, if the USDX manages to consolidate above the resistance level of 80.11, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is maintained within the range between the 79.81 and 79.69 levels. If the USDX manages to consolidate below the support level of 79.69, it's expected to fall to a level close to 79.00 in the medium term. The bearish outlook is kept alive in the USDX, but we must be cautious against any trend change. The MACD indicator is still in positive territory.

H1 chart: USDX is approaching the 200-day moving average, but it is very likely that the USDX will find resistance at the 79.88 level. If the USDX makes a bearish rebound at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 79.64. If the USDX manages to consolidate below this level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 79.39. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.39, and stop loss is at 79.89.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 11, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has dropped below the support level of 1.6663, so the bullish bias is endangered. If the pair manages to form a higher low pattern at present levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6540. On the other hand, if the pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6663, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6766. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: GBP/USD is forming a bearish pattern above the bullish trend line near the 1.6640 level. If the pair manages to consolidate below that level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6592. On the other hand, if the pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6644, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6667. However, it is very likely that this pair will make a bullish rebound at 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: This pair is moving into a low range near the support level of 1.6629. However, if this pair makes a bullish rebound at the current levels, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6700. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.6750. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6700, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6650.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 11, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD's upward movement from 1.3477 extended to as high as 1.3915. Key support is at the upward trend line in 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue after a minor consolidation and next target would be in the 1.4000 area. In the H4 chart, oscillators are giving a sell indication. We could expect the price to come down before it moves further. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal the completion of the uptrend.

Recommendations-

Sell below 1.3852 with targets at 1.3844, 1.3834, 1.3811, and 1.3778.

Buy above 1.3898 with targets at 1.3915 and 1.40.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in higher range after hitting its six-week high of 103.77 at Friday. It is undermined by selling of the yen crosses amid reduced risk appetite after surprise 18.1% on-year plunge in China's February exports (versus forecast +5.0% increase), leaving a trade deficit of $22.98 billion for February and heightening fears of slowdown in the world's second largest economy, fall in China's CPI to +2.0% on-year in February (in line with forecast) from +2.5% in January, China's solar-equipment maker Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology's failure to meet an interest payment on a bond Friday, becoming the country's first domestic corporate-bond default and lingering concerns over the situation in Ukraine as the Moscow-backed authorities in Crimea pushed their plan to become part of Russia. USD/JPY are also weighed by the Japan exporter sales and wider-than-expected U.S. January trade deficit of $39.1 billion (versus forecast deficit of $38.4 billion). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers, loose BOJ's monetary policy, higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year reached 2.821% Friday, it highest since Jan. 23) and positive U.S. dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.69 versus 79.64 early Friday) as U.S. non-farm payrolls rose larger-than-expected to 175,000 in February (versus +152,000 forecast), while January payroll growth was revised up to 129,000 from an original estimate of 113,000 - bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its bond buying by another $10 billion to $55 billion in its policy meeting on March 19. The U.S. unemployment rate rose unexpectedly rose to 6.7% from January's 6.6% (versus forecast of a decline to 6.5%), but that was driven by a 264,000 increase in the size of the workforce.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish,five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.7 and the second target at 104.05. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.60. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.30. The pivot point is at 102.80.

Resistance levels:

103.7

104.05

104.4

Support levels:

102.6

102.30

102.05

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting its two-year low at 0.8753 on Friday. It is undermined by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and flows to safe-haven CHF amid increased risk aversion. But USD/CHF downside is limited by 0.1% on-year drop in Switzerland February CPI (versus forecast 0.0%); comment from the Swiss National Bank's President Thomas Jordan in an interview with the Basler Zeitung that it would be inappropriate to exit from the minimum exchange policy and raise interest rates in a bid to counter the boom in the country's property market and positive U.S. dollar sentiment. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, 5- and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8730. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8710. The pivot point stands at 0.8825. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8730 and the second target at 0.8710.

Resistance levels:

0.884

0.8860

0.8895

Support levels:

0.876

0.8715

0.87

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range. It is undermined by the diminished investor risk appetite and Japan's exports sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the positive euro sentiment, demand from the Japanese importers and loose BOJ's monetary policy. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 171.3. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 170.5. The pivot point stands at 172.9. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.60 and the second target at 174.10.

Resistance levels:

173.60

174.10

174.65

Support levels:

171.30

170.50

170

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range after hitting its four-and-a-half month high at 0.8522 on Friday. It is undermined by the concerns over economic slowdown in China, kiwi sales on NZD/JPY cross amid decreased investor risk appetite and positive U.S. dollar sentiment. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone, bearish doji Shooting Star candlestick pattern was completed on Friday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.852 and the second target at 0.8545. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.84. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8370. The pivot point is at 0.843.

Resistance levels:

0.852

0.8545

0.8590

Support levels:

0.84

0.8370

0.8330

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GOLD analysis for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1,327.89 on volume above the average. Our previous analysis is still active and buying at this stage looks risky. Gold is around our critical resistance area, the price of 1,338.00. According to daily chart, we can observe a supply bar on volume above the average. According to 4H chart, we can observe a strong supply bar on higher volume, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential rejection level for the further downward movement and I got Fibonacci Retracement 61.8 % at the price of 1,343.50. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,344.00 on strong volume, we may see further upward movement and potential testing of the level of 1,353.00 (area of the previous swing high). I've placed Fibonacci levels to find potential down stations in case that price starts its corrective phase and I got submajor Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,309.00 and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,282.00.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,340.92

R2: 1,342.14

R3: 1,344.13

Support levels:

S1: 1,336.94

S2: 1,335.72

S3: 1,333.73

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since Gold is around its critical area and we are also near the high new ground.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms were established on the daily chart. This means the uptrend line established on September 2013 is still intact.

As expected, the ongoing bullish impulse succeeded to hit price level of 1.3900 on Friday. This level corresponds to 100% Fibonacci Expansion.

Through the fundamental point of view, the ECB's President Mario Draghi stated that fundamental data indicates a continuous improvement in the economy. This contributed to the recent bullish jump that took place on Friday despite positive employment news for USD. That's why, Friday's candlestick ended up with a long upper tail representing bearish rejection at the end of the day.

In the 4H chart, the pair failed to keep its earlier gains after the release of the U.S. employment numbers which recorded 175,000.

It is worth mentioning that the closure of the pair below 1.3820 level will reduce the probability of pursuing its ongoing strength, but the bears need to close below 1.3730 to end the bullish trend on the short-term prospective.

Bullish momentum needs 4H closure above 1.3888 to remain strong for further bullish targets around 1.3950 initially.

Technically, the price zone of 1.3630-1.3720 which is trapped between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, remains an important demand zone for the pair.

Stop loss for the bullish scenario is located below 1.3700-1.3720.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

On Friday, after the GBP/USD pair breached 1.6785, it expressed a Shooting Star daily candlestick indicating strength of the bearish momentum on these levels.

From the fundamental prospective of view, the U.S. employment improved by 175 thousand during February. This contributed to the recent decline in the pound sterling against USD below the level of 1.6680.

As depicted on the chart, the next demand level is located around 50% Fibonacci at 1.6540.

As long as 1.6820 remains the highest level for the month, price level of 1.6540 remains targeted by the bears in order to gather enough bullish momentum to push higher again.

Another scenario is that a Double Top pattern is being established with neckline located around 1.6600-1.6580.

Daily fixation below this neckline will enable the pair to reach 1.6400 as a projection target.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From today's 4H chart and as it was expected last week, we should wait for breaking the Resistance level of 173.50 before making the decision to keep the bullish trend. Today and as shown in the 4H chart, the pair failed to break this Resistance level and bounced from it to stabilize below the Resistance level of 172.75 and reversed its bullish move taking a slightly bearish move approaching the Support level of 172.00. Currently, it is testing the Support level of 172.00 trying to break it through to continue its bearish move. If the pair manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, it would be another good opportunity for more sell signals till reaching the Support level of 171.50 as the first target.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.00), R2 (173.50), R1 (172.75), S1 (172.00), S2 (171.50), S3(170.50).

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 10, 2014 Trend News

The pair established a prominent top around 1.1220 which pushed the USD/CAD pair back to the previous congestion zone between 1.0850 and 1.0960.

This congestion zone provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19. This led again towards 1.1190 where the USD/CAD pair topped on February 21 establishing a possible Double Top reversal pattern.

Price levels of 1.0950 and 1.0850 correspond not only to a previous congestion zone but also to the uptrend line that was initiated in September 2013, thus the market may offer a good BUY opportunity around 1.0900 with stop loss as daily closure below 1.0850.

In the long-term, the bullish demand expressed at 1.0960 is probably pushing towards 1.1235 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci.

Currently, the pair is roughly trapped within a new congestion zone located between 1.0960 and 1.1180.

A bullish breakout is more likely to occur based on the previous weekly candlestick (a bullish hammer) which indicates a strong bullish movement yet to occur.

It's important to note that a daily fixation above 1.1180-1.1235 will probably open the way towards the next resistance level around 1.1650 which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci which is prominent on the weekly chart.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 10, 2014 Trend News

After the breakout above 1.6600 took place, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped within a consolidation zone located between 1.6600 and 1.6800.

The bulls found 1.6600 as a prominent support to concentrate around. That's why a recent bottom was established there on the last visit on February 24.

Price level of 1.6820 remains the highest level so far. A breakout above this level will allow a quick bullish swing to be initiated towards 1.6870, then possibly towards 1.7000 which are prominent tops on the weekly chart.

Price zone of 1.6740-1.6700 ( 61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels ) remains the most prominent resistance zone on the 4H chart. This zone applied considerable bearish pressure today.

Price level 1.6640 corresponds to the neckline of a possible Double Top reversal pattern being established around 1.6450 (61.8% Fibonacci).

Confirmation of this pattern needs 4H fixation below 1.6640 which leads to projection target located at 1.6540.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 10, 2014 Trend News

On January 24, the EUR/AUD pair initiated a downside movement. This movement was maintained within the depicted bearish channel.

On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit when the bears seemed to be weak.

Simultaneously, the bulls established a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline was located at 1.5265.

Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with four-hour fixation above the price level of 1.5265.

Projection target of this reversal pattern is located at 1.5555. However, the bulls couldn't hit higher than price level of 1.5500 where strong bearish rejection was expressed last week.

Recently, the neckline around 1.5200 was threatened by the bears. Temporary breakdown took place when immediate bullish engulfing candlestick was expressed to push again above 1.5200.

The pair remains bullish as long as this support level remains defended by the bulls. Projection target is located at 1.5555.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 10, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 10/03/2014 13:20 CET

There is the anticipated impulsive wave progression to the upside in case the last swing down was a wave 4 purple correction has finally emerged and first three waves of that impulsive price progression has been done already. Currently, the price is in a corrective cycle wave (iv) green; and when the correction is finished, the upside trend will resume for one more push higher above the 145.68 top.

Support/Resistance:

145.49 - WR1

143.78 - Wave (iii) green high

143.59 - Intraday resistance

142.85 - Intraday support

142.31 - Weekly pivot

140.86 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Buy stop orders should be opened from the level of 143.85, with SL below the level of 143.59 and TP at the level of 145.49 with a possible upside extension.

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6435 on average volume. Our previous analysis is still active and in progress. Be careful with selling since we've got buying climax in the background starting from the level of 1.6191. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find potential upper stations. I got Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6375 (already met) and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6485. Anyway, its very risky to sell at this stage, so my advice is to watch for potential bullish movements on the dips.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6411

R2: 1.6438

R3: 1.6482

Support levels:

S1: 1.6323

S2 : 1.6296

S3: 1.6252

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the potential bullish continuation phase.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 10/03/2014 12:30 CET

The five wave impulsive wave progression to the upside looks finished and the question is whether this corrective cycle in wave 2 green has been finished in a shape of the ABC Running Flat formation or the corrective cycle will get more complex and time consuming. Currently, the pair is trading inside the red corrective channel and a breakout to the downside is expected. Please notice that to confirm more downside, the breakout must be impulsive in nature and golden trend line must be broken. So, any price below intraday support at the level of 1.1099 is the first confirmation of a possible wave alt.2 green top. Breaking lower, below wave 4 low at the level of 1.1069 and weekly pivot at the level of 1.1062, it gives the bears more clues about further possible market direction.

Support/Resistance:

1.1171 - 1.1191 - Supply zone

1.1171 - WR1

1.1157 - Techncial resistance

1.1128 - Intraday resistance

1.1099 - Intraday support

1.1069 - Wave 4 low

1.1062 - Weekly pivot

1.1008 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop orders should be opened from the level of 1.1095, with SL above the level of 1.1131 and TP at the level of 1.1062 with a possible downside extension.

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#USDX Technical analysis for March 10, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar Index remains in downtrend. The bearish flag target as mentioned in previous analysis is at the low 79s. This target is very close as the latest low is at 79.40. The trend is down as lower lows and lower highs are being formed. Short-term resistance is found at 80.15. Short-term support is at 79.

Bulls do not seem to have enough power to reverse trend so we remain bearish. Every upward bounce is met by more selling pressures and a new low. It is important for bears to keep an eye to the 80.15-30 level. Breaking above this resistance trend line level could be the early signs of a bigger trend reversal.

The weekly chart, however, is not good for the dollar bulls. The upward sloping trend line is broken and that confirms our bearish flag pattern towards 79. If support at 78.80 is broken, we could see a downward acceleration towards 75. Trend on a weekly level is down as the index remains below the Ichimoku cloud and is breaking support levels. A weekly close above 80.50 could reverse trend.

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Gold Technical analysis for March 10, 2014 Trend News

Gold bulls have made a pause to the strong upward trend and gold price got rejected near the previous high of $1,355. We recommend you to pay attention to short positions with the stop being very close has proved correct. However, despite the double top and rejection at $1,355, gold price has only briefly broken below the support level of $1,330 only to find it again above this level. Gold price is being supported at $1,330 both by the Ichimoku cloud and the upward sloping trend line.

As shown above, gold price is supported and the trend could very well be a sideways consolidation before new highs. Short-term resistance is found at $1,353-55. It is expected broken bears to close positions and reverse to longs with $1,380-90 target. Short-term support is found at $1,330 and then at $1,305. An hourly close below $1,330 will push the gold price at least towards $1,320.

The battle at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement still holds between bulls and bears. The market is seen in the daily chart above making a consolidation. A break outside the boudaries of this consolidation will start a new trend. So support and resistance levels if broken should be respected and followed, not played agains.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave (i) (coloured green) of the bigger wave [c] (coloured black) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart of the USD/CAD pair, we can see clear five wave pattern from the 1.0953 level, this move should be a part of the (i) wave (coloured green) that will complete anytime soon and offer us a good selling opportunity. Short term traders should focus on the selling opportunity against the 1.1158 level, and for the confirmation that (i) wave is over, we can look for the break below the 1.1080 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (ii) should extend 50% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1038 (50% of wave (i)).

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0889, (S2) 1.0934, (S1) 1.1010, (PP) 1.1055, (R1) 1.1131, (R2) 1.1176, (R3) 1.1252.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why, short positions at the level of 1.1080 with stop loss at 1.1158 and take profit at 1.1038 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week, the AUD/USD pair was trading upwards, just like we had expected, corrective wave C (coloured blue) of the bigger (B) wave (coloured red) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see that we just completed the (iii) of C wave with a test of the 0.9131 level, and we are going to look today for one more push higher in the final (v) wave (coloured green) while price remains above the 0.8968 level (short term invalidation point). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (v) which should extend 61.8% of wave (iii), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (iii) with take profit at 0.9143 (61.8% of wave (iii)). Since move from the 0.9131 level look to deep, we must have some alternate view ready. Alternate count: Wave (B) is already over at the 0.9131 level, and if price breaks below the 0.8968 level, we are going to look for more downside movements towards the 0.8895 - 0.8837 area next (50-61.8% of the bigger upward cycle from 0.8653 level).

Support and Resistance (S3) 0.8970, (S2) 0.9015, (S1) 0.9041, (PP) 0.9086, (R1) 0.9112, (R2) 0.9157, (R3) 0.9183.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why, long positions at the level of 0.9050 with stop loss at 0.8968 and take profit at 0.9143 are recommended.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French Industrial Production m/m, Italian Industrial Production m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence, Eurogroup Meetings results.Today, the US will not release any economic data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will have low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3944.

Strong Resistance:1.3935.

Original Resistance: 1.3922.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3909.

Target Inner Area: 1.3876.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3843.

Original Support: 1.3830.

Strong Support: 1.3817.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3808.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3922 correspondingly. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3817 and by 1.3935 as the strong resistance level.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3808 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3944 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the levels of 1.3843 and at 1.3909, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3876.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 10, 2014 Trend News

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In Asia, Japan will release the Current Account, Final GDP q/q, Bank Lending y/y, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Economy Watchers Sentiment; meanwhile, the US will not release any economic data today. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will have low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.60.

Resistance. 2: 103.40.

Resistance. 1: 103.20.

Support. 1: 102.95.

Support. 2: 102.75.

Support. 3: 102.54.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.54) and resistance 3 (103.60). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

For detail explanation and best discovery on market trends you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 10, 2014 . Thanks for your support on Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 10, 2014

Analysis of gold for March 10, 2014 Trend News

The job creation data in the US came in well above expectations. US Labor Department reported that the American economy created 175,000 jobs in January. But the worry part is that the unemployment rate jumped to 6.7% from 6.6%.

Technical view

While I am preparing this report, gold suddenly drops to $1,327.80 from $1,335.0 in Asia's trading session. Currently it is trading at $1,332.0. 200EMA acting as a good support from last 5 trading days. The gold is trading in a range between $1,328.0- $1,355.0. Break out either side will create a room for further movement. If it breaks below $1,328.0, it will fall to $1,318.0 and $1,310.0 and $1,297.0. From last couple of trading days we recommend to sell on rallies with sl $1,355.0, more strength for bears if it breaks $1328.0. If the price breaks out on the upper side above $1,355.0, we will see $1,362.0 and $1,372.0. In the daily chart, oscillators still in the sell mode. Any pull back leads to generate shorts.

Intraday- Range between$1,328.0- $1,340.0.

Positional- sell on rallies. $1,355.0 neckline resistance

S1 $1,328.0 R1 $1,355.0

S2 $1,318.0 R2 $1,362.0

S3 $1,310.0 R3 $1,395.0.

A day close above the level $1,355.0, we will see $1,362.0, $1,375.0, $1,395.0, $1,420.0 and $1,440.0.

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for March 10-14, 2014 Trend News

Weekly technical levels:

The movement of pivot point between resistance and support levels.

If price at pivot point (1,6713), watch for a move back to resistance 1 (1,6785) or support 1 (1,6640).

If price at resistance 1 (1,6785), expect for a move to resistance 2 (1,6858) or back towards pivot point (1,6713).

If price at support 1 (1,6640), expect for a move to support 2 (1,6568)or back towards resistance 1 (1,6785).

If price at support 2 (1,6568), expect for a move to support 3 (1,6930)or back towards support 1 (1,6640).

If price at resistance 2 (1,6858), expect for a move to resistance 3 (1,6930) or back towards resistance 1 (1,6785).

It should note if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 (1,6785) or support 1 (1,6640). But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 (1,6785) or support 1 (1,6640) and reaches resistance 2 (1,6858) or support 2 (1,6568) and even resistance 3 (1,6930) or support 3 (1,6495).

Observations :

If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account. Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy in the long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.

Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had huge volatility.

Notes :

Major support for March 10-14, 2014: 1.6570

Major resistance for March 10-14, 2014: 1.6853

We expect a new range about 195 pips.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 10, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: After much dithering, this market has been able to bring about an established bullish bias. The resistance line at 1.3900 had been tested before the price moved into a temporary consolidation. This resistance line will be tested again and the price may attempt to move towards our ultimate target at 1.4000.

USD/CHF: The sudden weakness in the USD has caused a serious plunge of the USD/CHF price. At this point, the struggle between the bull and the bear is so intense, but the bull cannot help being battered by the bear. The easy/initial target for this week is at the support level 0.8750. When the price tests that support level, it may bounce temporarily upwards, but there is a possibility of it being tested again and breached to the downside.

GBP/USD: Here, there has not been a significant bullish move, but the signal in the market is still bullish. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is not below the level 50. There may soon be a breakout to the upside.

USD/JPY: Last week, it was rightly predicted that there would be significant movements on the JPY pairs. The pairs moved significantly upwards breaching more and more supply levels. There are currently pullbacks in the markets, but the uptrends will continue this week. The pullback on the USD/JPY could be contained at the demand levels of 103.00 and 102.50, respectively.

EUR/JPY: This cross shot skywards by over 450 pips last week. Right now, there is a bearish retracement which is supposed to be temporary. The market can go upwards again and run into the supply zone at 144.00.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 10, 2014 Trend News

The pair is reaching the major resistance zone 0.9152-0.9166. On Friday's trading session the price broke the resistance level 0.9080 and made high at 0.9133. In the Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 0.9058, coming back and trading below the previous resistance level 0.9080. Currently the pair looks attractive for buying only if it trades above this level for the targets 0.9122, 0.9166, 0.92 and 0.9256. On the downside 0.8972 and 0.8923 is the strong support. Break below 0.8923 looks weak and could fall up to 0.8730, 0.8693 and 0.8659.

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