Wednesday 24 July 2013

EUR/JPY inching ahead as channel remains intact; flat for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair stopped us out just ahead of the 1.3250 level yesterday. Looking into the chart setup presented here, two possibilities are emerging here. If the channel line support remains intact, the pair would be heading towards a fresh high above the 134.00 level. While a reversal ahead of the implied resistance at the 133/134 levels would see a sharp reversal on the lower side. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further signal clarity to initiate directional positions. Looking into the entire chart run up till now, higher probability remains for a top to form before resistance and reversal on the lower side.



Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.



Good Luck!


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GBP/CHF rally to continue; 1.4270/75 is support Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The single currency pair was expected to begin retracement lower, as discussed earlier. On shorter time frames, it looks like the pair is ready to take support from lower levels (around 1.4270/75), before the next bull run begins. Intermediary support is at the 1.4200 level, which is also at the rising trend line, followed by 1.4075 and lower; while immediate resistance is at the 1.4800 level, followed by 1.5. It is recommended to remain long for now and add further positions after dips around the 1.4270/75 mark. Bottomline: Look higher after retracement levels, till the 1.4200 level is intact.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long for now, stop below 1.4200, target open.


Good Luck!


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EUR/USD - Key level 1.3214 - for July 24, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The euro reached 1.3255 at its high of the day so far, due to a series of data from Germany and France related to manufacturing, with better than expected figures. It has given the euro bullish strength, but we note that in the American session this pair is falling, while the Momentum Indicator is showing a bullish signal. Maybe just a pullback continues the upward move, but we must be very careful as this pair tries to bounce back above 1.3214. If this area is broken and 4H chart is located below, this will be a good chance to sell this pair up to 1.3104 support.



If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 24, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices have continued their upward extension towards 1,350 where wave C equals 1.618 times of wave A. The rise from 1,270 is near completion and we favor closing long positions, raising stops and remaining neutral. We believe that soon a downward correction will start. We will go short only if prices break support levels and break out of the upward sloping trend channel.



The bigger picture wave count is shown in the chart above. The upper boundaries of the longer term upward sloping channel are important resistance levels and I expect prices to be rejected there and pull back down towards the previous wave 4 or the lower boundaries of the upward channel. Breaking out of this upward sloping channel will confirm our view that this upward move from 1,180 is corrective. If prices manage to remain within the channel, then we will look into the possibility of the existence of a 5 wave upward move from 1,180 that could imply longer term bullishness.



The short-term trend in Gold prices remains up. The move from 1,270 seems complete and I expect the short-term upward channel to break soon. If that happens I prefer short positions with the last high at 1,348 as stop. I expect at least a 30 dollar decline and a visit to the 4th wave price area. Although my primary scenario is bearish and I believe that the entire upward move is corrective, we should not ignore the possibility that a larger upward pattern is in force. If prices break downwards but do not manage to overlap wave 1 at 1266, then the bulls will still have many posibilities of survical.


Concluding, we are currently neutral expecting a break of the upward channel to go short with the last high as stop and first take profit level at the 1,310 area.


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USDX analysis for July 24, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index continues trading around the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and the pause to the steep decline is just another sign of the importance of support at this level. Additionaly this adds to our chances of a trend reversal as the 61,8% retracement is a key support level. The decline from 84.75 still remains overlapping and thus corrective, and our bullish scenario still has a lot of chances to be fulfilled.



Current price action takes place above 82 but short-term trend remains down. Prices continue to trade within a downward sloping channel. Short-term resistance is found at 82.25 and 82.45. Short-term support is found at 81.90-70. We believe that we will soon see and upward break out of the downward sloping channels, marking the start of a new upward wave that eventually will give new highs above 85.



The long-term trend is bullish with 80 as stop. The intermediate term trend is neutral to down as the short term down trend prevails and has not changed yet. Bulls will need prices to move impulsively upwards and break above 82.25 and 82.65 price levels in order for the short term trend to change and the intermediate term trend to be challenged. Above 83.45 the intermediate term trend will change to up. We believe that an important bottom is being formed and that trend will change soon.


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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6733


R2: 1.6673


R1: 1.6603


Current Spot: 1.6564


S1: 1.6552


S2: 1.6528


S1: 1.6496


Technical overview:


We are looking for a powerful rally to take off any time now. A clear break above 1.6603 opens up the upside for an impulsive rally higher towards 1.7364, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i. However, this rally could become even more extended and rally higher towards 1.7929, but only time will tell. In the short term we are looking for a minor support at 1.6552 to protect the downside for the break above 1.6603, but even if we see a break below 1.6552 the downside should be limited and at no point should we break below 1.6476 as that would delay the expected rally higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long EUR from 1.6625 with a stop at 1.6420. If you are not long EUR yet we recommend buy upon a break above 1.6603 with the same stop at 1.6420.


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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 132.78


R2: 132.27


R1: 132.01


Current Spot: 131.73


S1: 131.37


S2: 131.09


S3: 130.72


Technical overview:


We have been locked in a price range between 130.71 and 132.27 since late Friday. However, we are still looking for a continuation higher towards the next minor resistance at 132.78 and possibly higher towards our ideal target near the former high at 133.81. That said, we regard this rally as a part of a complex correction and once this rally is over we should see an impulsive decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly even lower. Short-term support at 130.72 will protect the downside, but we will need a break below strong support at 129.67 to confirm, that this b-wave rally is over and wave c lower is developing.


Trading recommendation:


We will stay neutral for now and await a more clear picture.


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