Friday 26 September 2014

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range. It is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 17.86% to 15.64, S&P 500 closed 1.62% lower at 1,965.99 overnight) as concerns linger over global economic growth and geopolitical tensions--data this week pointed to stagnating growth across Europe and China, Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said Thursday the first interest-rate hike is inching closer, a bill introduced in Russia's parliament Wednesday would allow the government to take control of foreign assets on Russian soil, compensating Russians when their property is seized elsewhere as Western sanctions take their toll. USD/JPY is also weighed by the larger-than-expected 18.2% on-month drop in August durable goods orders (versus forecast minus 17.5%), lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.504% versus 2.569% late Wednesday) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the fewer-than-expected 293,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Sept. 20 (versus forecast 296,000) and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.19 versus 85.06 early Thursday) as the U.S. economy outperforms other major economies, ultraloose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japanese importers and positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 108.80. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 108.45. The pivot point stands at 109.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.70 and the second target at 110.


Resistance levels:

109.70

110

110.35


Support levels:

108.80

108.45

108.20


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting a 14-month high at 0.9515 on Thursday. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.19 versus 85.06 early Thursday) as the U.S. economy outperforms other major economies, contagion from weak EUR on CHF, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF upside is limited by the positions adjustment before the weekend and larger-than-expected 18.2% on-month drop in August durable goods orders (versus forecast minus 17.5%); lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.504% versus 2.569% late Wednesday).


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9540 and the second target at 0.9565. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9420. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9380. The pivot point is at 0.9455.


Resistance levels:

0.9540

0.9565

0.96



Support levels:


0.9420

0.9380

0.9340


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting one-year low at 0.7908 on Thursday. It is hurt by the comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that the Kiwi's real exchange rate is still above sustainable levels, and that experience shows that the ultimate adjustment can be large when the Kiwi starts to fall. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD, EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD crosses. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7835. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7805. The pivot point stands at 0.7975. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8035 and the second target at 0.8095.


Resistance levels:

0.8035

0.8095

0.8145


Support levels:

0.7835

0.7805

0.7775


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Fundamental Overview:


EGBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment, sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But sterling sentiment is soothed by the comments from Bank of England Gov. Carney that the central bank is getting closer to the first rate hike--predicted by many economists in early 2015--although any increases is likely to be gradual and limited. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and positions adjustment before the weekend. GBP/JPY downside is also limited by the sterling demand on buoyant GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD and GBP/CAD crosses; positions adjustment before weekend.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics falling is from overbought zone, MACD is staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average and bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.


Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.30


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 26 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6291


R2: 1.6203


R1: 1.6150


Current spot: 1.6128


S1: 1.6070


S2: 1.6058


S3: 1.6031


Technical summary:


With the break above the base-channel resistance-line we should see acceleration higher towards 1.6203 on the way higher to 1.6407. Short term we will be looking for support at 1.6031, which idealy will protect the downside for the next rally above 1.6150 for a test of resistance at 1.6203 on the way higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5826 and will move our stop higher to 1.5810. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.6031 with the same stop at 1.5810.


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 26 - 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 26 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 139.15


R2: 139.10


R1: 139.01


Current spot: 139.91


S1: 138.81


S2: 138.71


S3: 138.61


Technical summary:


The break below support at 138.47 has forced a short term recount. Instead of a 1-2 / 1-2 count, the rally from 135.80 to 141.22 only was wave i and the ongoing correction is wave ii. This wave ii correction could be over as it already has corrected 50% of wave i, but we need a break above minor resistance at 139.70 and more importantly above 140.22 to confirm, that wave ii is over and wave iii higher towards 143.79 is developing.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 138.40 was hit for a small loss and we will buy EUR at 137.95 or upon a break above 139.70.


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 26 - 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) managed to pause the previous bullish momentum, thus initiating the current downtrend within the depicted bearish channel.


Several congestion zones were established around the price levels of 1.3515 and 1.3335 before further bearish decline could take place.


Last week on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair showed bullish recovery around price level of 1.2860. Successive bullish daily candlesticks were expressed around these price levels.


However, the bearish engulfing daily candlestick for Friday indicated severe weakness of the bulls. This enhanced the bearish trend towards 1.2750 and 1.2680 as initial target levels.


Today's daily candlestick should be monitored for bullish rejection. The EUR/USD pair is currently testing the lower limit of the ongoing bearish channel. That's why, any signs of bullish reversal should indicate upcoming corrective movement towards 1.3060.


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The current short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2995 (the recent weekly high). Moreover, another descending high was established on Wednesday around 1.2920.


Bearish slide below 1.2820 invalidated the possibility of a bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2750 and 1.2680 took place shortly after achieving the projection targets of the bearish flag pattern.


Careful watching of price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.


In case the bulls initiate a corrective movement around the lower limit of the channel being tested today, the first target levels to be visited should be located around 1.2940 and 1.3060.


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EUR/NZD analysis for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview:


Oour last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6148 in an high volume. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.6000 is broken so we may see more upward movements. Since the price has broken the level of 1.6010 in a higher volume, we may see potential testing the level of 1.6200 (swing high like resistance). Anyway, be careful when buying at this stage since the price is near the resistance level. My advice is to wait for retracement and then to build buying positions.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6112


R2: 1.6179


R3: 1.6287


Support levels:


S1: 1.5895


S2: 1.5828


S3: 1.5719


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we may see further upward movement.


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via EUR/NZD analysis for September 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Daily analysis of Silver for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Overview


As it is seen from today's 4H chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 17.50 after its failure to break the support level of 17.30 and has bounced from it. Currently, we should wait for retesting of the support level of 17.50again and closing below it to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level till testing the next support level of 17.30. Therefore, we can consider our first target a few pips above this support level, but as long as the price is still above the support level of 17.50, this cancels the bearish move scenario.


Resistance and support levels: R3 (18.30), R2 (18.00), R1 (17.75), S1 (17.50), S2 (17.30), S3(17.00).





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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Daily analysis of Silver for September 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Trading recommendations :



  • The NZD/USD pair is in the long term indicates that the market was turning to bearish from the level of 0.8066. Also, it should be noted that the trend had also broken the second support at the level of 0.7990. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below the level of 0.7990 with the first target of 0.7900 to the level of 0.7880. Moreover, the NZD/USD pair will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.7857. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be placed above 0.7990 at the price of 0.8020.



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Observations :



  • Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and the scenarios might have become invalidated.

  • Key level is at 0.7990.

  • History will probably repeat itself at this level again.


Warning :



  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

  • The market has a high volatility, if the previous day had a huge volatility.


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

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Trading recommendations :



  • According to the preceding news, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.6250 and 1.6385.

  • So, the range of the pair will be around 120 pips on the face of maximum today.

  • Therefore, sell below the level of 1.6385 which represents the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels with the first target at the 1.6270 price, then It will call for Ñ„ downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.6246 in order to test this strong support (it should be noted that the price of 1.6257 is going to form a new double bottom around the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels).

  • At the same time, the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.6450.


Intraday technical levels :


Date and Time:26/09/2014 10:46


Pair:GBP/USD



  • R3: 1.6411

  • R2: 1.6376

  • R1: 1.6345

  • PP: 1.6310

  • S1: 1.6279

  • S2: 1.6244

  • S3: 1.6213


Note :



  • It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


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#USDX Technical analysis for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index makes a small pull back but the overall trend remains fully bullish. There is no sign of a major trend reversal and there is no indication that we could have reached the end of the upward move.


usdx.jpg

Red line = resistance


Green line s= price channel


The Dollar index remains inside the upward sloping channel and above the previously broken resistance at 84.80. A pull back to back test the break out at 85 is very possible but I believe this would be a buying opportunity. The trend remains up. Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud.


usdxd.jpg

Red line = resistance


Blue line= support


The longer-term trend remains fully bullish. The parabolic rise does not give many opportunities to enter long but it is very dangerous going against trend and shorting this index. I prefer to wait for a pull back towards 85-85.10 to enter long than go short. This up trend is very strong and I would not bet against it specially now that we have broken above the long-term important resistance of 85.


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Gold Technical analysis for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has made a double bottom around $1,207-$1,210 and then bounced back above $1,220 towards $1,230. Our longer-term view remains bearish and the upside potential we see is limited to $1,240-50. The trend remains down and we prefer to look for sell opportunities.


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Green line = price channel


Blue line = support


Gold price remains inside the downward sloping channel and is testing the Ichimoku cloud resistance. The double bottom at $1,207 area gives me a target of $1,230 that we have already reached in early trading or even $1,240. I expect price to be rejected between $1,230-40 and turn back lower to break $1,207.


goldd.jpg

Blue line = triangle formation


The trend in the daily chart remains fully bearish. This upward bounce is expected to be short-lived and a resumption of the downtrend to test the lows at $1,180 is expected. I prefer to look for sell opportunities near $1,230-40 or sell on signs of weakness. A sign of weakness would be the break below support level of $1,215 and below $1,207.


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 26, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 26/09/2104 08:20 CET


The market is behaving as anticipated, slowly making new higher highs but the projected target level has not been hit yet. The market is still trading inside of the golden channel, bouncing up from the lower channel boundary. The Awesome Oscillator shows moderate pace of momentum, so the traders might expect another high to be made on this pair. The short term, mid-term and long-term outlook is still bullish and the first target is at the level of 1.1187.


Support/Resistance:

1.1187 - WR2

1.1130 - Intraday Resistance|Swing High|

1.1065 - WR1

1.1047 - Intraday Support

1.0979 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy positions from the level of 1.1130 with SL below the level of 1.1097 and TP at the level of 1.1187.


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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 26, 2014 . Thanks for your support.