Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. USD/JPY is underpinned by bearish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11.5-year high 97.828 this morning, last 97.69 versus 96.33 early Friday) after more-than-expected 295,000 increase in the US February non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +240,000) and lower-than-expected US February unemployment rate of 5.5% (versus forecast 5.6%). Although, average hourly earnings rose less-than-expected by 0.1% (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.24% versus 2.11% late Thursday), demand from Japan importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, flows to haven JPY, and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.26% to 15.2, S&P 500 closed 1.42% lower at 2,071.26 Friday) as the robust non-farm payrolls report heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy by June. Risk sentiment are soothed by the data released on Sunday showing the China's exports posting a strong 48.3% rebound in USD terms in February (versus forecast +13.3%).
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish. Although, the latter is at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.35. The pivot point stands at 119.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.55 and the second target at 118.35.
Resistance levels:
119.55
119.80
120.25
Support levels:
118.65
118.35
117.75
Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. USD/CHF is underpinned by bullish dollar sentiment, negative Swiss interest rates, threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention, and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish. Although, the latter is at overbought levels, five-day and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9460. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9410. The pivot point stands at 0.9545. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9580 and the second target at 0.9630.
Resistance levels:
0.9580
0.9630
0.9675
Support levels:
0.9460
0.9410
0.9365
Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. NZD/USD is undermined by bearish dollar sentiment after lower-then-expected Non farm payroll data. The kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion, weak commodity prices, and the kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD crosses and on soft NZD/CAD cross. But kiwi sentiment is soothed by 0.9% rise in the Q4 manufacturing sales volumes in New Zealand.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, a five-day moving average is below a 15-day moving average, and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7630 and the second target at 0.7660. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7515. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7470. The pivot point is at 0.7555.
Resistance levels:
0.7630
0.7660
0.7695
Support levels:
0.7515
0.7470
0.7415
Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. GBP/JPY is undermined by the flows to haven the yen amid increased investor risk aversion, soft EUR/USD undertone, and Japan exporter sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, a five-day moving average is below a 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 178.25 and the second target at 178.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.15. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 176.85. The pivot point is at 177.45.
Resistance levels:
178.25
178.60
179.30
Support levels:
176.85
176.45
176
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver has been pushed through $17.20, just shy of $17.40 as seen here. The metal is forming a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern for now and is likely to be preparing to push lower towards the level of $16.00 soon. It is recommended to remain short for now with risk around $17.40/50. Bears should regain control untill prices remain below $17.40. Immediate support is seen at the level of $16.50 (interim) followed by $15.80, $15.30, and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $17.80, $18.40/50, and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop at $17.40/50, target at $16.00.
Good luck!
Overview:
In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4426 in a volume below average. We face very low volatility (due to bank holidays) today, so be careful when trading. Anyway, I found upward channel according to the 4H time frame, and we can observe testing of lower diagonal (support). We are awaiting for a clear direction for better possibilities. The short term trend is bullish, so buying positions are preferable. First resistance level is around 1.4475.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.4491
R2: 1.4511
R3: 1.4544
Support levels:
S1: 1.4425
S2: 1.4406
S3: 1.4374
Trading recommendations: The short term trend is bullish, so be careful when selling EUR/NZD at this stage.
Overview :
Forecast :
Notes :
The weekly technical levels for EUR/USD pair:
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,223.21 in a high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand in a volume below average. According to the lower time frames, we can observe buying climax (hidden selling) around the level of $1,221,00. So, be careful when buying gold at this stage. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at $1,225.00 is almost tested. We got buying climax (hidden selling) according to the lower time frames, so buying gold at this stage looks risky. Support level is around $1,208.00.
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,218. 05
R2: 1,218.95
R3: 1,220.33
Support levels :
S1: 1,215.15
S2: 1,214.25
S3: 1,212.80.
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage since our Fibonacci expansion 100% is almost tested.
The weekly technical levels for GBP/USD pair:
Technical levels :
Observations :
If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is an uptrend and USD is a downtrend.
General idea about the pivot point.
General overview for 06/04/2015 10:30 CET
The upside breakout in wave (a) blue looks completed now and the bearish divergence supports this view. Currently, the market should be making wave (b) blue as an internal corrective cycle before the uptrend would continue. The target level for wave (b) blue is the intraday support at the level of 130.03 and bounce/reversal is expected form this level. In case of any further breakout lower, the corrective retracement in wave (b) blue might get even to the zone 120.50 - 120.20.
Support/Resistance:
131.67 - Swing High
130.93 - Intraday Resistance
130.03 - Intraday Support
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider to open buy orders from the level of 130.03 with SL below the level of 129.80 and TP at the level of 131.67.
General overview for 06/04/2015 10:20 CET
The retracement in wave 2 black in shape of a double zig-zag formation is completed now and the crucial moment has come for this pair. The invalidation line at the level of 1.2411 is rather closed now. Please keep an eye on this level, because any break out lower is likely to invalidate the bullish impulsive wave progression labeled as wave 1 black and make another clue that the market is still inside of the bigger cycle wave 4 green corrective zone.
Support/Resistance:
1.2411 - Invalidation Level
1.2431 - Intraday Support
1.2497 - Intraday Resistance
1.2555 - First Target Level
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider opening buy orders from the current market levels with SL below the level of 1.2411 and TP at the level of 1.2555.
The Dollar index opened with a gap down today following the disappointing Non-Farm payrolls announcement on Friday, while the market was closed. The Dollar index looks very weak after the NFP announcement but is still trading inside the longer-term upward sloping channel and above the recent low.
Red line = support
Green line = resistance.
Blue lines =target 1:1projection
The Dollar index is trading above its recent low at 96.20 for now. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is bearish for the short term. If support at 96.20 gets broken and the index makes a new low, I would expect the Dollar index to push towards 94 as shown in the chart above.
The Dollar index is testing the lower boundary of the upward sloping channel. The weekly candle stick has opened below the tenkan-sen (red line) indicator and the weekly close will be very important for the longer-term trend. Bulls will need to hold the 96 support and break above 98.60 resistance in order for the uptrend to resume.
Gold price opened with a gap up early on Monday following the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls number released on Friday. As we mentioned on Friday, there was still no sell signal as the price remained above the Ichimoku cloud. But even with this gap up, the price has not broken above the recent highs and critical resistance at $1,222. This week is going to be important as we see a move back towards $1.250-60 or $1,180.
Blue line = resistance
Red line = support
Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud. It is trading just below the recent high of $1,222. If support at $1,180 gets broken, we should expect $1,130 to be tested. If gold price closes above $1,222 on a daily basis, we should expect a move towards $1,250 at least.
In the weekly chart, gold price has moved above the red tenkan-sen indicator but is still below the yellow kijun-sen. If it closes above the kijun-sen this week, we should expect gold price to move towards the cloud in the area of $1,250 at least. A rejection at the current levels is likely to be a bearish signal and I will be expecting to see Gold price moving towards $1,000 over the coming weeks if support at $1,180 fails to hold.
EUR/USD: Last week, this pair went downwards first, reaching the support line at 1.0750. The price was not able to close below the support level, and therefore it rallied massively by more than 250 pips. The price could go upwards this week, reaching the resistance line at 1.1000. The price closed above the support line at 1.0950: the price might test the aforementioned resistance line again. It may even breach it to the upside.
USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair went upwards last week just in opposite to what the EUR/USD pair was doing. The market made some bullish attempt reaching the resistance level at 0.9750. Further bullish journey was rejected of that resistance level and the price plunged by 250 pips, testing the support level at 0.9500. This week, the bearish movement may make the price go below that support level.
GBP/USD: The cable has been consolidating for about 2 weeks. The bullish breakout that occurred on Friday, April 3, 2015, did a very little to change the dominant bias (which is neutral). In recent times, the price gallivanted between the distribution territory at 1.4850 and the accumulation territory at 1.4750. A break above the accumulation territory at 1.4900 looks promising, providing that the price also goes above the distribution territory at 1.5000. At the time, the bias would have turned bullish. Any movement downwards, by 100 to 200 pips would merely reinforce the existing neutral outlook.
USD/JPY: The currency trading instrument closed at 118.97 on a bearish note. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market now and the price is expected to break the stubborn demand level at 118.50 below going further south.
EUR/JPY: This cross looks strong right now and the price may continue going upwards slowly and gradually, especially as long as EUR is strong. Any weakness in EUR would cause the cross to plummet because the outlook for some JPY pairs this month is bearish.
