Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 30, 20143 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 0.94% to 11.57, S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at all-time high 1,920.03 overnight) as larger-than-expected 27,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 300,000 in week ended May 24 (versus 319,000 forecast) overshadowed smaller-than-expected 0.4% on-month increase in U.S. April pending home sales index to 97.8 (versus +2.0% forecast), with investors brushing aside worse-than-expected downward revision in U.S. 1Q GDP growth to -1.0% from +0.1% (versus -0.6% forecast) due to harsh winter weather and inventories. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and rebounding U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in bearish mode.

Technical Comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turning bearish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102 and the second target at 102.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.40. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.20. The pivot point is at 101.55.

Resistance levels:

102

102.35

102.55

Support levels:

101.40

101.20

101.05

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is supported by the franc sales on buoyant EUR/CHF cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on rebounding CHF/JPY cross and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8935. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8920. The pivot point stands at 0.8990. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9015 and the second target at 0.9030.

Resistance levels:

0.9015

0.9030

0.9065

Support levels:

0.8935

0.8920

0.89

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the improved investor risk tolerance, demand from Japan importers and euro short-covering as traders book partial profits before weekend. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan export sales. The daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is in the oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170.95 and the second target at 171.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169.45. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 169.10. The pivot point is at 169.90.

Resistance levels:

170.95

171.45

171.85

Support levels:

169.45

169.10

168.50

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 30, 2014 Trend News

The pair has established a recent support zone between 1.6765 and 1.6815 during February and March. These levels correspond to the previous tops in a successful Double Top pattern.

The depicted BLUE uptrend line remained intact since it was established in November 2013. However, this time the bulls failed to achieve a higher high above the recent one around 1.6995. Moreover, the bears broke-down this trend line challenging the recent bottom around 1.6730 which was established in mid March.

On the 4H chart, strong bearish rejection was expressed off 1.6920 leading to bearish breakdown of the depicted bullish channel as well as successive previous support levels now acting as resistance.

Moreover, four-Hour closure below 1.6825- 1.6800 gathered enough bearish momentum to push towards the prominent support level around 1.6750.

The long-term perspective remains bearish aiming to form another bearish limb that would extend below 1.6730 ( the most recent bottom ) as long as the bears keep defending this resistance level.

This expected bearish impulse is probably targeting at 1.6650 ( previous ascending top ).

Around 1.6650, price action should be watched then for a possible bullish corrective movement.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has made a pullback on the resistance level of 80.62. If the USDX does fall to the support level of 80.11, it is likely that the bearish trend dominate again for the USDX on this chart. However, if the USDX does make a breakout at the resistance level of 80.62, it's expected to rise to the level of 81.50. The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 80.35. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 80.15, which is very close to the 200-day moving average. Moreover, if the USDX does make a breakout at the resistance level of 80.60, it is expected to rise to the level of 81.00. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has fallen to the support level of 80.35, where the 200 SMA is located. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it is expected to fall to the level of 80.15. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a rebound at the current levels, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.59. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.35, take profit is at 80.59, and stop loss is at 80.10.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is trying to climb up to the resistance level of 1.6766, but this is part of the corrective movements in the bearish trend, as this pair is forming a higher low pattern. However, if the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6851. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD remains above the support level of 1.6731 and now this pair is heading towards the 200 SMA, which is above the resistance level of 1.6762. However, if the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6731, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6683. The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

H1 chart: This pair is trying to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6750. If successful, it is expected to rise to the level of 1.6800. However, if the GBP/USD manages to make a pullback at current levels, it is expected to fall to the support level of 1.6700. The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6700, take profit is at 1.6629, and stop loss is at 1.6770.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6179

R2: 1.6131

R1: 1.6097

Current Spot: 1.6039

S1: 1.6018

S2: 1.5974

S3: 1.5930

Technical Summary:

The first attempt to break above the trendline resistance near 1.6050 failed, but we think the next attmpt we be more successful and lead to a continuation higher towards strong resistance at 1.6179. Only a break above resistance at 1.6179 will confirm the bottom for a much higher rally towards 1.7274 and higher for a longer term.

In the short run, we will be looking for support near 1.6018 to be able to protect the downside, but only a break below strong support at 1.5974 will delay the upside pressure.

Trading Recommendation:

Stay long EUR from 1.5858 and keep your stop at 1.5905. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6018 or upon a break above 1.6097 with a stop at 1.5970

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 139.36

R2: 138.81

R1: 138.50

Current Spot: 138.34

S1: 137.69

S2: 137.20

S3: 136.67

Technical Summary:

Not much has happened since yesterday. We are still looking for a continuation lower towards 137.69 and maybe even lower towards 136.67 to end the blue wave v and red wave iii as well as set the stage for a flat shallow correction in red wave iv. As the red wave ii was a simple zig-zag correction, that corrected most of the red wave i, we should expect the red wave to alternate by being a falt correction and only correct a minor part of the red wave iii.

Trading Recommendation:

Our stop at 138.45 was hit for a nice little profit. We will wait for the correction in the red wave iv to sell EUR again.

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1.6094 on high volume according to the 4H timeframe. As you see in the graph, our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6075 took place successfully, and we saw rejection from that point just like we expected. Accorindg to the 1H timeframe, I have placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recent downward leg. I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6045 (on the test). I also placed Fibonacci expansion levels to find potential down stations. Besides, I got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.5975. Anyway, be careful with buying EUR/NZD since the price is near the resistance.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R2: 1.6106

R3: 1.6148

Support levels:

S1: 1.5996

S2: 1.5970

S3: 1.5928

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1,251.29 on high churn volume (high volume but low range of the bar) according to the Daily chart. Since the price didn't break our resisntace level at 1,305.00, we saw strong downward pressure. Anyway, selling still looks very risky since we are at the support level and we have reached selling high (ultra high volume) on the low ground. I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find a potential end of a bearish corrective phase and I got submajor Fibonacci expansion level 100% at the price of 1,251.00 and major Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,217.00. According to the 1H timeframe, we spotted intraday resistance level at the price of 1,260.00 (Sswing high) and intraday support at the price of 1,251.00 (swing low, Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful with selling Gold at this stage since the price is near the support level.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,260.53

R2: 1,262.91

Support levels:

S1: 1,252.81

S2: 1,250.43

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term selling since the price is near support.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The price of EUR/USD pair will move between 1.3660 and 1.3585 today. We expect a new range about 81 pips as maximum today (the risk of 53 pips must make a profit of 81 pips). Moreover, it should be noticed that the key level is set at the level of 1.3660. Equally important, the value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.3660 in H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that this level is coinciding with the weekly pivot point. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below the weekly pivot point (1.3659) with the first target of 1.3610. It will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.3585 in order to test the double bottom. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, thus the stop loss should be placed above the price of 1.3659 because the level of 1.3659 will confirm the bullish market.


• Please, note that the daily volatility on May 30, 2014 is 122.17. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The market of the USD/CAD pair is going to continue to show signs of weakness following at the level of 1.0980 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Hence, the level of 1.0980 is representing strong resistance on the last day of May. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair support had broken and turned to resistance a month ago (1st of May 2014). Additionally, according to the previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.0930 and 1.0813. Consequently, if the trend cannot break and close above the level of 1.0923, then it will be a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective, so the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.0923 for that it will be a good sign to sell at this level in order to continue downward towards 1.0813 to test double bottom. Moreover, if the USD/CAD pair breaches the double bottom at the level of 1.0813 then the trend will formed a new minimum price around 1.0775.

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#USDX Technical analysis for May 30, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a pull back that puts the short-term support to the test. Prices are in danger of breaking support at 80.40-.35 and this will push the index lower towards 80.20 where the ichimoku support is found.

Breaking below 80.20-80.10 will not be good for bulls. This could mean that more selling should be expected and price could push even below 80. Longs are better to exit if 80.35 is brokeneaks.

The daily chart shows how difficult it was for the index to break above the long-term resistance trend line that was found at 80.60. This trend line resistance that was once support has rejected the price yesterday and we may see a strong pull back that will bring price back to the Ichimoku cloud in the daily chart that is found at 79.85. So a dip below 80 is very possible. So bulls should be very cautious.

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Gold technical analysis for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has reached just below $1,250 and is now trying to make an upward bounce. The trend is down and I expect it to remain down even if price makes a bounce towards $1,280. The current upward bounce is another good sell opportunity in my opinion. Taking profits near $1,240-50 and selling again near $1,280-70 is my preferred strategy.

Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud and has reached below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $1,180 to $1,391. I expect price to reach at least the 76.4% retracement if not lower. If Gold price breaks support at $1,220-30, we should expect the lows at $1,180 to be challenged. Don't forget my longer-term target is between $1,100 and $1,000.

Gold prce should bounce from the 76.4% retracement in order to continue the building of a longer-term triangle that we expect eventually to be broken downwards to the new lows we expect. Long-term trend change will happen only if Gold price manages to break above $1,400. The maximum upside I believe it can make is around $1,330.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 30, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 30/05/2014 08:30 CET

The downside impulsive wave progression has made one more low than I expected but for now it looks completed. Due to this new circumstances, the count has been slightly changed and it indicates two possibilities. The first one is that the top for the wave 2 black is in place and the recent downside wave progression is the impulsive wave (i) green of the wave 3 black. The second one, alternate count, indicates that there is still possible more complex correction in wave 2 black and the recent wave progression to the downside was a wave alt:(b) blue and now the impulsive rebound should be in progress. The key level here for intraday internal wave cycle is the grey rectangle between the levels of 138.50 - 138.58, as any breakout higher means wave (ii) green corrective bounce is going to retrace more ground. The main count invalidation line is at the level of 139.35: any violation of this level means alternate count is in play.

Support/Resistance:

137.97 - Wave (i) green Low

138.06 - Intraday Support

138.31 - WS1

138.50 - 138.58 - Key Level

138.58 - Intraday Resistance

138.80 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell limit orders from the grey rectangle zone with SL above the level of 138.61 and TP at the level of 138.06 with a possible downside extension to the new low.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 30, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold is stalling around the $1,250.00/60.00 range at the moment. Please note that this region is also the convergence of past resistance turned support and fibonacci 0.618 support (of the rally between $1,182.00 and $1,388.00/90.00 levels). A bullish reversal remain quite possible around current price activity at $1,256.00/57.00. Recommendations are to remain flat for now; watch out for a bullish reversal here.

2. Support is seen at $1,230.00/40.00 levels, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,300.00, followed by $1,300.05/10.00, $1,330.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold could potentially stage a rally from current levels. On the flip side, a break below $1,240.00 could be encouraging for bears.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now OR remain long, stop at $1,240.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 30, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 30/05/2014 07:40 CET

The technical support level was violated yesterday after a downside breakout from the red channel, making another marginal low in the market. Currently, the price is still above very important technical support at the level of 1.0813, and a breakout lower not necessary should be perceived as bearish because the corrective cycle to the upside is still possible in more complex wave (c) blue as a part of irregular flat correction in wave 2. The downside count in wave (b) blue however has been changed to a WXYXXZ labeling that is representing a descending triple three complex corrective cycle that is targeting the level of 1.0813 (grey rectangle). The bounce is expected from this level and if the main count is correct, the upward progression should start to complete wave (c). Otherwise the count will be invalidated and more lower prices should be expected.

Support/Resistance:

1.0813 - Techncial Support

1.0819 - WS1

1.0824 - Intraday Support

1.0848 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders and daytraders should consider opening buy limit orders from the grey rectangle zone with SL below the level of 1.0799 and TP at the level of 1.0848 (daytraders) and 1.0941 (swing traders).

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