05/07/15 ~ Best and Easy Analyst News

Thursday 7 May 2015

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.5497 and 1.5248. Equally important, it should be noted that the level of 1.5248 is representing a strong support in the H1 chart. Additionally, the level of 1.5497 is going to form a double top. Consequently, the range of the GBP/USD pair will be around 135 pips on Friday 8th April 2015. Consequently, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.5248 because the level of 1.6730 is going to act as strong support and it is representing the weekly pivot point at the same time. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above this level today with the first target at 1.5350 in order to try to break the minor resistance.

Technical levels:

Projected high: 1.5497.
Breakout (buy stop): 1.5375.
Strong resistance (breakout): 1.5350.
Current pivot: 1.5300
Strong support (buy limit): 1.5248 (the weekly pivot point).
It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommendations:

According to the recent events, the price of the USD/CHF pair has still trapped between the levels of 0.9134 and 0.9273. The level of 0.9273 is representing the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Hence, sell below the level of 0.9273 with the first target of 0.9222; it might resume to 0.9134 today in order to test the weekly pivot point which represents the ratio of 11.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Also, it should be noted that the market was so stable and trend was so clear (downward) last week. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account; therefore it will be very useful to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9295. Notes
As it is known, sellers are asking for a high price. And the supply zone has been set between the level of 0.9273 and the 0.9260 level.
The double top is seen at the level of 0.8856. The minor support is likely to be set at 0.9275 (this level is going to represent the weekly resistance).
The major support had already been set at the level of 0.9134. Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding with the major support.
We expect a range of 78 pips this week.
The level of 0.9196 is likely to be the key level today.

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why the market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

A daily fixation below 1.2300 cleared the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (projection target of the recent range breakout and the depicted weekly uptrend).

That is why we expected these price levels to provide significant signs of bullish price action.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2330-1.2350 remains a significant intraday resistance zone at further retesting. This zone is likely to offer a low-risk sell entry while retesting.

Trading recommendations:

As it was suggested yesterday, risky traders could have taken a BUY entry anywhere around the price level of 1.1950. T/P is projected at 1.2100, 1.2270 and 1.2320 as long as USD/CAD bulls keep defending the recent low (1.1940).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2300-1.2340 for a low-risk sell entry. T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2100, and 1.1950 while S/L should be placed above 1.2250.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 7, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Significant SUPPLY levels located around 1.5300 (weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level) have been providing significant SUPPLY over the GBP/USD pair for a few months.

Evident bullish recovery emerged off the price levels near 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

As mentioned in the previous articles, persistence above the zone of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly supply zone at 1.5500-1.5550 (roughly corresponding to weekly 50% Fibonacci level) where significant bearish pressure was applied.

The current weekly candlestick closure should be monitored to determine the next destination of the pair as weekly closure above 1.5300 immediately exposes the price levels around 1.5500 (weekly 50% Fibonacci level).

Sideways movement with slight bearish tendency was expressed on the daily chart until a bullish breakout took place above 1.4970-1.5000 (via a Full-body bullish candlesticks).

The price zone between 1.5000 and 1.5050 (daily 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels) currently constitutes a prominent DEMAND level for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, it offered a valid buy entry at retesting that took place on Tuesday. S/L should be advanced to 1.5050 (just below entry levels) to offset the risk.

Initial bullish targets are located at 1.5300, 1.5350 and 1.5430.

On the other hand, daily closure below the level of 1.4970 invalidates the ongoing bullish scenario giving more time for sideway movement for some time.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The market was pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1,500 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

The previous monthly closure had a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. However, April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing candle as depicted on the chart.

This probably hinders further bearish decline for some time. On the other hand, it enhances a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 if daily closure persists above the price level of 1.1250.

In the long term, bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level of 1.0550 should not be excluded as the long-term breakout target is roughly projected towards the level of 0.9450.

The obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The price zone between 1.1050 and 1.1150 failed to neutralize the ongoing bullish momentum. Moreover, a bullish continuation pattern with an ascending bottom was established around the level of 1.0650.

This applied a strong bullish pressure over prominent SUPPLY levels at 1.1150 and 1.1240. Thus, bears have failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

The current daily candlestick closure should be monitored for further price analysis.

Daily persistence above the price level of 1.1250 directly exposes the DAILY SUPPLY level located at 1.1500 for a quick retesting.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

As expected, the support has broken and turned to resistance at the same key level of 1.2282 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Consequently, the resistance of the USD/CAD pair has already set at the price of 1.2282. Also, a minor resistance is placed at 1.2151. Equally important, the price is below the resistances for several days. Furthermore, the price has been still moving between 1.2151 and 1.1942 (the level of 1.1942 is representing a double bottom on the H4 chart). Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of bearish market. Therefore, the market indicates the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.2151 with the first target of 1.2013, and continues towards the level of 1.1942 again. On the other hand, stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be good to set your stop loss at the price of 1.1025. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the level of 1.1942 is representing a strong support on May 7, 2015. Moreover, the same level is coinciding with the 00% Fibonacci retracement levels. Consequently, the pair is going to form a strong support at the price of 1.1942.

Observations:

The double bottom will be at the level of 1.1942.
The major resistance is going to be at 1.2282.
The price hit the weekly pivot point and the resistance 1 last week.
We expect a range of 241 pips this week.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

The trend of the EUR/USD pair was controversial as it took place in the narrow uptrend channel. But it should be noted that the market showed the signs of instability below the weekly support one at 1.1384. Due to the previous events, the price is still between the levels of 1.1288 and 1.1391, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bullish trend again. In other words, buy deals are recommended above 1.1288 with their first target at the level of 1.1406. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.1406. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.1406 and further to the level of 1.1453 (it will act as a strong resistance for this week). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.1453, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.1453. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the level of 1.1453 with the first target at 1.1280. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.1215. then 1.1102 (the weekly pivot point).

Observation:

It should be noted that the weekly resistance 2 is at the level of 1.1453. If you sold below 1.1453 then you have to place a stop loss at 1.1486.
We expect a range of 147 pips from today to the end of this week.

EUR/NZD analysis for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.5240 in a high volume. The short-term trend is bullish. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD. Our objective point at the price of 1.5155 (Fibonacci retracement 50%) has been reached. According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in a high volume. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find next bullish objective point Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5450.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5160

R2: 1.5250

R3: 1.5390

Support levels:

S1: 1.4875

S2: 1.4780

S3: 1.4645

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via EUR/NZD analysis for May 07, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Gold analysis for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,180.60 in a high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume above the average but with weak price action. The short-term trend is neutral. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a high volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,181.00 is on the test. I am still expecting bullish movement so my advice is to focus on buying positions. The first resistance level is around the price of $1,200.00. According to the 30-minute time frame, there is still a valid inverted head and shoulders formation (bullish).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,195.00

R2: 1,197.40

R3: 1,201.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,187.90

S2: 1,185.60

S3: 1,182.10

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities (buy on dips).

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Gold analysis for May 07, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Daily analysis of USDX for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

On the daily chart, the USDX is still falling and looking for new weekly lows because it is trying to break the support level of 93.95 with a lower low pattern formation. Due to this, it would be expected to test the level of 92.64, which is very close to the current position of 200 SMA in this time frame. The MACD indicator is still at negative territory.

The US dollar index is looking to make a breakout at the support zone of 93.85 and now it is forming a bearish pattern in the short term. The current angle of the 200 SMA is telling us about a possible bearish continuation in our current intraday outlook. If the falls continue, the USDX could test the level of 93.05 and keep an eye on the MACD indicator as it is entering negative territory.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.00 / 96.30

Dailychart's support levels: 93.95 / 92.64

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.70 / 95.34

H1 chart's support levels: 93.85 / 93.05

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.85, take profit is at 93.05, and stop loss is at 94.66.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

There is bullish momentum again on the GBP/USD structure on the daily chart because the pair is trying to break the resistance level of 1.5238 and if it is successful, it would be expected to rally until the level of 1.5371. We could be in front of a bullish development for the medium term as GBP/USD will try to reach again the 200 SMA.

A sideways consolidation still takes place on the H1 chart because GBP/USD is forming a lower low pattern below the 200 SMA, but it could fail. Remember the support zone of 1.5102 is very strong and the overall bias on this pair is still calling for upside moves. Furthermore, GBP/USD could break the resistance level of 1.5217.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5238 / 1.5371

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5007 / 1.4874

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5266 / 1.5313

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5217 / 1.5155

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5266, take profit is at 1.5313, and stop loss is at 1.5222.

#USDX wave analysis for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has made new lows as expected and is at its final leg down according to my wave analysis. Bears should be very cautious as I believe we are close to completing the downward correction in an A-B-C pattern of 3 waves.

Green line = neckline resistance

Blue line = trend line support

Orange lines = bearish channel

The Dollar index has paused its decline at the blue trend line support. We are at the final 5th wave down from 95.94 and soon we should expect a strong upward reversal. Resistance by the bearish channel is at 95.50 and at 96 by the cloud.

The Dollar index should at least make an upward bounce to retest the cloud from below although I believe that this downward correction will be the signal of a new upward move starting with new highs as a target. I remain neutral waiting for a confirmation of a trend change. I believe bears should lower their stops and start thinking of taking profits.

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Gold wave analysis for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has reversed from the 61.8% retracement as we expected and has started making lower highs and lower lows on the 4-hour chart. The trend is bearish as the price is below the Ichimoku cloud and, according to my wave analysis, we should see a strong downward impulsive move soon that will break below $1,170.

Blue line - support

Gold price has also broken below the short-term support at $1,185 and has given a second sell signal after the one at $1,200. The price is expected now to test $1,170 and will most probably break below it towards $1,150-30. Resistance is found at $1,195-$1,200 and a break above this level will not be a good sign for bears.

The weekly chart remains bearish as the price is moving below the tenkan-sen red line indicator. The longer-term trend remains bearish and I expect a move towards $1,000 over the next month if we break the critical support at $1,130. The longer-term trend changes on a weekly close above $1,260.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on USD against CAD & YEN for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Private sector employment increased by 169,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report. Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. The USDX drifted to a 3-month low. The USDX gave a bearish crossover. As expected, the short-term target was topped at 100.00. Bears are aiming for 93.25 and 93.00 which is our short-term target, later it could be 91.50 and possibly 90.00.

USD/CAD

The rising crude oil price has been helping the Loonie to trade higher against the USD. We recommended selling below 1.2350 with a target at 1.8865. The pair has made a low at 1.1941. We recommended buying at $53.40 with a target at $62.00 yesterday. Today, at the Asian session the CAD is trading higher against the USD. Until the price closes below 1.2350, selling on a rally remains in play. Today, traders eye Canadian building permits data. We expect the data should be negative. In this case, we recommend buying with sl 1.2000, targets are at 1.2050, 1.2085, 1.2100, and 1.2130. If the data turns out to be strong, the pair can fall towards our positional targets. In this case, we recommend selling below 1.2000 with targets at 1.1970, 1.1950, 1.1900, and 1.1870. We expect the US unemployment claims will impress markets.

USD/JPY

The pair has been consolidating for the recent couple of months. Unlike the USD-related pairs, USD/JPY is still in the bullish zone. The pair has been making symmetric triangle with higher lows. The near-term bull stop would be placed at 118.30. Bears can take the pair in control below 118.10 and 118.00, the pair is likely to touch 117.20, 116.80, and 116.20. If the pair closes above 120.85, bulls can bet at a new high at 122.50. On the downside, the support is seen at 119.20.The 100Dema is found at 118.30.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around 135.60/70 levels preparing for a meaningful retracement ahead. The pair could rally another 100 pips towards 136.50 and then drop towards a deeper correction lower. At least 130.00 levels could be expected on the lower side before the rally resumes again. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to initiate short positions around 136.50 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 136.50/137.00 levels while support is seen at 133.00 levels, followed by 131.00, 129.00 and lower respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now, look to sell higher.

Good luck!

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.3900 levels and is heading lower towards 1.3700 levels before rallying again. Please note that 1.3700 is also the fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between 1.2800 and 1.5100 levels broadly. The pair is expected to reverse from 1.3700 levels and head higher from there on. It is recommended to stay flat for a while and look to initiate long positions at lower levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.3700 levels, while resistance is seen at 1.4200 levels respectively. Bears in control for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

Technical analysis and trading recommendations on EUR/CAD for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The cross consolidated for 6 days before moving higher to the crucial resistance level. The pair managed to close above 20Dsma and 50Dsma. The parallel resistance seems between 1.3750 200Wsma and 1.3763. These are the make or break levels of this cross. In the recent 4 months, the 200Wsma acted as a trend change level twice. In early 2015, the cross made a low at 1.3754 and held the support by 200wsma and changed the direction towards 1.4489 within 2 weeks. Later in March 2015, the 200Wsma acted as resistance thrice and dragged the cross towards 1.3024 from 1.3758 in a week time. Again, the cross has been testing its fate at the same 200wsma at 1.3750. The positional technical view favors buying with sl 1.3385. If the price closes above 1.3765, fresh longs will be added to this cross aiming for 1.3820 and 1.4070 in the short term. The pair is on a verge of an inverse bullish head-and-shoulder break. If the cross is unable to give a break on the higher end in a day or two, the pair can correct towards 1.3600 and 1.3520. Use this opportunity to enter buying trade with sl 1.3385. Recently we break the story of EUR/USD,GBP/USD & EUR/NZD which gave good money. Today, traders eye Canadian building permits. As usual we expect the negative readings. In this case, the pair is likely to give a break on the higher side. If the readings are positive, the pair can correct 100odd pips. For an intraday view, we recommend buying with small targets 1.3700, 1.3720 and even 1.3750. In case price close above 1.3765 big spikes looms in the coming days. In case, of positive data we recommend selling below 1.3620 with targets at 1.3600, 1.3580, and 1.3560. The real panic will create below 1.3560 towards 1.3520, 1.3500, and 1.3480.

Trade: Buying with sl 1.3630, targets are at 1.3700, 1.3720, 1.3745, and 1.3760.

Risk selling below 1.3620, safe selling below 1.3600 with targets at 1.3580 and 1.3560.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis and trading recommendations on EUR/CAD for May 07, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD

As we expected, yesterday's data shows the recovery of the eurozone's economies. Spain, Italy, and France enjoying their optimistic data, but the biggest economy, Germany, is struggling a bit. The ECB QE is working well on the economies. In March 2015, the ECB began purchases of government bonds worth over 1 trillion euros by September 2016. The euro's longer-term picture favors bears.

Spain services PMI: April data signalled a further acceleration. Business Activity Index rose for the second month to 60.3 in April from 57.3 in March. The reading signalled a substantial monthly increase in activity, it has been the sharpest surge since November 2006. Growth of activity accelerates amid an abrupt increase in new orders since June 2000.

Italy services PMI : Italy's service sector enjoyed a positive start to the second quarter. An increase in new jobs promotes business activity growth. A number of new jobs picks up to the biggest level since late 2007. Business Activity Index came in at 53.1 in April, up from 51.6 in March. This was the index's second-highest reading in over four years, the index was outpaced only in June 2014.

France services PMI: France's service providers reported a rise in business activity for the third month including April. Final Markit France Services PMI came in at 51.4 (52.4 in March), hitting a 3-month low. Final Markit France Composite Output Index dropped to 3-month low at 50.6 from 51.5 in March.

Germnay services PMI: April data signalled a continuation of service sector activity growth in Germany, but the rate of growth slowed since March. Final Germany Services PMI showed 54.0 in April, down from 55.4 in March (a 3-month low). Final Germany Composite Output Index was at 54.1 in April, down from 55.4 in March (a 2-month low).

Eurozone PMI: Eurozone growth continues as industrial output rises across four major economies. Final Eurozone Composite Output Index is 53.9. Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index is 54.1. This was highlighted by the final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posting 53.9 which little changed from 54.0 in March.

Euro retail sales: A 0.8% decrease in retail sales was noted in the euroarea in March 2015.

Today's events: Germany factory orders is due. We expect negaive data this month from Germany. The factory orders report disappointed traders in March and April. Besides, US unemployment claims can be printed on the positive side.

Technical view: The pair gave another strong close at yesterday's session. The weak US data pushed the USD to a 3-months low, the euro used this opportunity and recovered from the lows. The beaten-down euro has been enjoying bulls ride for 4th consecutive month. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to close above 100dsma and 100dema. We recommended risky buying above 1.1200 and safe buying above 1.1230 with the targets at 1.1270 and 1.1290 on intraday and positional 1.1390 and 1.1475. The pair made a high at 1.1370. We made good money of 170 pips. Technically, the gains add more strength against USD, a bullish crossover is at 20&50 sma. The pair managed to close above 100dsma & ema. Exactly one year ago, the pair closed below 100dsma&ema (May 13, 2014), at that point we recommended selling. If we consider the fundamental factor, the euro favours selling on a rise. The divergence between FED and ECB policies makes the pair bearish. The ECB is likely to expand QE by 2016.The downward pressure still exists in the system. This rally is a relief rally generating from the soft USD. Support is found between 1.1290 and 1.1250. Until the pair closes above 1.1250, the technical bullish view remains in play in the short term. We are waiting until the rest of our targets at 1.1390 and 1.1475 are hit. This view will be erased, in case the price closes below 1.1250. For an intraday view, we recommend fresh buying at 1.1290 with sl 1.1250 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1370 and 1.1390. The pair made a double top at 1.1370. Another strong upswing is expected above 1.1370. If Germany's factory orders appear to be disappointing and US unemployment claims impressive, we recommend selling below 1.1250 with immediate small targets at 1.1225 and 1.1200. The real panic lies below 1.1200 towards 1.1180, 1.1120, and 1.1070.

Trade: Use a dip to buy with sl 1.1250 or buy above 1.1370.

NOTE: If the price closes below 1.1225, we can conclude the short-term target has been capped.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around $16.40 levels for now, at the lower end of a very tight trading range. The metal could drop to $16.20 levels if $16.35 breaks down, and then resume its rally. Bulls are looking to remain in control, till prices stay above $15.80 levels. It is recommended to remain long for now, risk is around $15.30 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.80/60 levels, followed by $15.30 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.40/50, followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively.Only a drop below $15.60 would delay matters.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at $15.30, a target is open.

Good luck!

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 07/05/2015 08:40 CET

As anticipated yesterday, there was a possibility of a new high if an alternative count to be in play after a three-wave decline towards the weekly pivot level. Currently, the upward move does not look completed yet. However, there are first indications that it might be the last stage of the last wave to the upside before the reversal will happen. Bearish divergence between the momentum oscillator and the price is the first clue that supports our view. A breakout below the level of 134.85 would be first confirmation move that would support the count as well.

Support/Resistance:

135.80 - Intraday Resistance|Swing High|

135.26 - Intraday Support

134.82 - Intraday Support

133.34 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from the current market levels with SL above the level of 135.80 and TP at the level of 135.26 with a possible extension lower to the level of 134.85 and 133.34.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 07/05/2015 08:20 CET

The impulsive bullish count had been invalidated because the wave two low overlapped the beginning of wave one. Therefore, the recent rally up couldn't be the beginning of a trend resumption. It looks like it was only a short-term bounce to make the wave XX brown high at the level of 1.2203. This all means there is one more wave to the downside missing to complete the wave Z brown of the overall corrective structure in wave 4 green. There are two possible resistance levels from where a slide can start: one is the intraday resistance at the level of 1.2086 and the second is dynamic golden trend line resistance around the level of 1.2138. Please notice the bullish divergence has formed, but it might have only a shot-lasting effect, unless the level of 1.2203 is violated.

Support/Resistance:

1.1938 - Swing Low

1.2029 - WS1

1.2086 - Intraday Resistance

1.2115 - Weekly Pivot

1.2138 - Trend Line Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider a short-term buying opportunity from current price levels with a tight SL and TP at the level of 1.2086 with a possible extension up to the level of 1.2138.

Technical analysis of Gold for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around $1,188.00/89.00 levels for now and is expected to rise through $1,215.00 levels and higher, in the coming sessions. The metal has corrected since printing highs around $1,200.00 levels recently. Bulls seem to be poised to remain in control till prices stay above $1,168.00 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,168.00 levels, followed by $1,162.00, $1,143.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,200.00 (interim), followed by $1,215.00 levels, $1,225.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop below $1,165.00, a target open.

Good luck!

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.14 versus 95.10 early Wednesday) after fewer-than-expected 169,000 increase in ADP U.S. April private sector jobs (versus forecast +205,000), bigger-than-expected 1.9% drop in U.S. 1Q preliminary productivity (versus forecast -1.8%). USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's export sales and flows to haven JPY amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.87% to 15.15, S&P 500 closed 0.45% lower at 2,080.15 overnight) after the weak U.S. ADP jobs data. Besides, the pair's dynamic is affected by comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen that equity valuations are "generally quite high," and caution ahead of the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report Friday. But the USD sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected 5.0% increase in U.S. 1Q unit labor costs (versus forecast +4.3%). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.252% versus 2.176% late Tuesday), demand from Japan's importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in a bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.20. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.75. The pivot point stands at 120.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.50 and the second target at 120.80.

Resistance levels:
120.50
120.80
121.45

Support levels:
119.20
118.75
118.30

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 7, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair, which first moved downwards this week, has reversed upwards again recovering the losses it sustained earlier this week. The price first went down by 120 pips, sauntering below the support line 1.1100. From there, the price moved upwards by 270 pips, battering the resistance line at 1.1350.

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument first moved sideways at the beginning of this week and later, it fell sharply (by 150 pips). The price is just above the support level at 0.9150, and it would remain under bearish pressure as long as the EUR/USD pair is strong. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have an impact on this market.

GBP/USD: This market is also making an honest bullish effort, but the strength is not as high as that of the EUR/USD pair. The price first moved sideways this week, but it later broke upwards, leading to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. This means that the market could go further bullish.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has traded largely southward this week, leading to a brand-new Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The price is now below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The price may fall further from this place.

EUR/JPY: This cross moved up by around 200 pips this week, now being around the market zone at 135.50. A further northward journey is possible, pushing the price towards the supply zone at 136.00. On the other hand, bears' effort could cause the cross to test the demand zone at 134.50 and 134.00.

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a three-month low 0.9111 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.14 versus 95.10 early Wednesday) after fewer-than-expected 169,000 increase in ADP U.S. April private sector jobs (versus forecast +205,000), bigger-than-expected 1.9% drop in U.S. 1Q preliminary productivity (versus forecast -1.8%), and franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the negative Swiss interest rates and threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9110. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9050. The pivot point stands at 0.9225. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9280 and the second target at 0.9340.

Resistance levels:
0.9280
0.9340
0.9375
Support levels:
0.9110
0.9050
0.9

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a three-week low at 0.7457 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the soft New Zealand 1Q unemployment data, weak dairy prices, Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion, and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the negative USD sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7580 and the second target at 0.7635. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7410. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7370. The pivot point is at 0.7455.

Resistance Levels:
0.7580
0.7635
0.7665

Support levels:
0.7410
0.7370
0.7310

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Resistance Levels:
0.7580
0.7635
0.7665

Support levels:
0.7410
0.7370
0.7310

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental outlook:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. It is supported by the buoyant GBP/USD undertone and demand from Japan's importers. The sterling sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected U.K. April CIPS / Markit services PMI of 59.5 (versus forecast 58.5). But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion and Japan's export sales.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing, stochastics is reverted to the bullish mode at overbought levels.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 182.80 and the second target at 183.45. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 180.75. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 180.25. The pivot point is at 181.40.

Resistance levels:
182.80
184.45
185

Support levels:
180.75
180
179.35

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 7 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

Wave v has now tested the 38.2% target at 1.5109. It seems to be peaking for a larger correction towards 1.4724. A break below minor support at 1.4932 will be the first indication that wave v and 1 has peaked and a correction in wave 2 is unfolding.

A very nice five-wave rally from the 1.3880 bottom can now be counted as wave 1. We should be looking for a correction in wave 2. Second wave corrections can be very deep (they are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave).

Trading recommendations:

We are long EUR from 1.4825 and take our profit + reverse our position to a sold EUR position here at 1.5090 with stop placed at 1.5135.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 7 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The 135.82 target is currently being tested. It is likely to mark the top of red wave iii and call for a correction in red wave iv to just above support at 133.08. As red wave ii was a simple zig-zag correction, a shallow but complex red wave iv should be expected before red wave v higher to 137.54.

In the short term, we expect minor support at 135.16 will protect the downside to test the ideal red wave iii target at 135.82. A break below 135.16 will be the first warning that red wave iii has peaked and red wave iv towards 133.08 is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are long from 128.85 and will move our stop higher to 135.10. If our stop is hit, we will re-buy EUR at 133.15.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

!EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, French Trade Balance, French Industrial Production m/m, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will publish a few macroeconomic data such as the Consumer Credit m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1395.

Strong Resistance:1.1388.

Original Resistance: 1.1377.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1366.

Target Inner Area: 1.1339.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1312.

Original Support: 1.1301.

Strong Support: 1.1290.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1283.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 07, 2015 Market Analysis Review

!USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Monetary Base y/y. Besides, the US will publish some macroeconomic data such as Consumer Credit m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.08.

Resistance. 2: 119.85.

Resistance. 1: 119.61.

Support. 1: 119.32.

Support. 2: 119.09.

Support. 3: 118.85.