Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with risks skewed to downside after hitting a seven-day high 0.7870 on Thursday. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment, receding investor risk appetite, weak commodity prices and drop in BNZ Business Performance of Manufacturing Index to a four-month low of 55.2 in November from downwardly revised 58.9 in October. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the less dovish than expected policy statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday, the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross, NZD-USD interest differential and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend. The daily chart is tilting positive as stochastics is rising from oversold levels, the MACD histogram bars are turning positive.

Technical Comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7765. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.7730. The pivot point stands at 0.7835. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7870 and the second target at 0.7905.

Resistance levels:

0.7870

0.7905

0.7945



Support levels:
0.7765

0.7730

0.77

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. It is undermined by the reduced investor risk appetite and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY downside is limited by the demand from the Japanese importers and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 184.95. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 184. The pivot point stands at 187.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 187.80 and the second target at 188.40.

Resistance levels:

187.90

188.40

189

Support levels:

184.95

184

183.35

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Three months ago, the price levels around 1.0620 (the lower limit of the depicted chart) initiated the current strong uptrend.

Recently, bulls were pushing towards the upper limit of the movement channel (1.1370) in mid-October. Immediate bearish rejection was expressed resulting in a bearish correction towards 1.1200.

4H fixation below 1.1230 - 1.1210 (50% Fibonacci level) temporarily allowed bears to push towards 1.1100 (the lower limit of the bullish channel), where extensive bullish support was offered.

Recently, bulls have pushed further above the price level of 1.1400. However, the upper limit of the movement channel was located around 1.1470 where the bearish rejection was applied.

As anticipated, the bullish breakout above 1.1440 is important to push towards 1.1550 where the upper limit of the ongoing bullish channel is located.

During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a recent SUPPORT zone around 1.1430-1.1330, breakout above which allowed the bulls to reach new highs around 1.1495 and 1.1535 which got hit today.

The price zone of 1.1430-1.1460 remains a key zone for this week's remaining trading sessions. Persistence above it signals the bullish tendency towards 1.1550 initially and 1.1650 to come next.

Trading recommendations:

Although, LONG positions suggested after the USD/CAD pair closed above 1.1450 were considered high-risk ones, they're are running in profits towards their targets (the price level of 1.1650 yet to come).

However, conservative traders should minimize the risk and advance their SL to entry levels (or slightly below - around 1.1420, for example).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The price zone of 1.2880-1.2900 (corresponding to the upper limit of the previous broken channel) was targeted month ago. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern was established.

A bearish breakout off the bullish channel took place soon, thus confirming a flag continuation pattern. Bearish projected target already reached the level around 1.2490.

As anticipated earlier, daily fixation below 1.2490-1.2500 (the origin of the previous bullish swing expressed one month ago) extends the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2200.

After bears could fixate below 1.2360, the EUR/USD pair has shown bullish recovery again above it due to the lack of bearish pressure below 1.2255.

Price level of 1.2200 remains the projected target of the current bearish flag pattern as long as 1.2500 remains defended by the EUR/USD bears.

The double-top pattern was expressed last week on the 4H chart around 1.2500. As anticipated, fixation below neckline (price level of 1.2430) enhanced the bearish trend on the market.

Yesterday, bulls spiked up to 1.2496. However, the market came back to trade below 1.2400. It could represent a failed bullish breakout off the upper limit of the depicted movement channel.

Fixation below the technical key level of 1.2370 is mandatory to maintain enough bearish momentum to push towards 1.2200.

On the other hand, 4H closure above the price zone of 1.2460-1.2480 ( Wednesday's daily high ) invalidates the suggested bearish scenario temporarily exposing price levels of 1.2580 for retesting.

Trade recommendations:

As anticipated before, intraday traders can SHORT the pair anywhere around 1.2410 -1.2450 (prominent Fibonacci Levels). Stop Loss should be set at a four-hour closure above 1.2470.

Target level should be located around the price level of 1.2200.

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EUR/NZD analysis for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading upward. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5970 in an average volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5835 held successfully, and it made price start with strong upward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5975 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6060. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand on the market. So, be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since price is testing our resistance level.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5947

R2: 1.5979

R3: 1.6031

Support levels:

S1: 1.5843

S2: 1.5811

S3: 1.5759

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since our resistance level is on the test.

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Gold analysis for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upward. The price tested the level of 1,231.79 in a volume above the average. Our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,186.00 is broken, so, we may expect potential testing of 1,255.00-1,265.00 levels. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,218.00 held successfully and caused price to start with upward movement. My advice is to look for buying opportunities near the lows (after retracement). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand in a volume above the average. So, selling gold at this stage looks risky, watch for potential buying oppoprtunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,231.62

R2: 1,235.64

R3: 1,242.13

Support levels:

S1: 1,218.64

S2: 1,214.62

S3: 1,208.13

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• According to the previous events, the price of the AUD/USD pair has still been moving between the levels of 0.8308 and 0.8214. As it is known, if the trend is downward, then the strength of the currency pair will be defined as following: USD is in uptrend and AUD is in downtrend. Consequently, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 0.8308 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels) on the H1 chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 73 pips. Thereupon, sell at the price of 0.8308 with the first target at 0.8250, it might resume to 0.8214 in order to test the double bottom. At the same time, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above the 0.8345 level.

Intraday technical levels :

Date: 12/12/2014

Pair: AUD/USD

• R3: 0.8520


• R2: 0.8447


• R1: 0.8360


• PP: 0.8287


• S1: 0.8200


• S2: 0.8127


• S3: 0.8040

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommendations :

• The market of the EUR/USD pair will turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 1.2470. Additionally, the resistance will be set at the level of 1.2489. Also, we expect a new range of 97 pips today. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell at the 1.2470 or 1.2489 prices with the first target at 1.2405. Furthermore, it will continue in downtrend in order to keep its bearish movement towards 1.2371 (it should also be noted that the level of 1.2371 is going to form double bottom). Nevertheless, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, the stop loss should be placed above 1.2494 (double tops in the H1 chart) at the price of 1.2515.

Notes :

• Support 1 and resistance 1 are going to set at the levels of 1.2371 and 1.2489 respectively


• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


• We expect a new range about 208 pips this week.


• The key level will set at the level of 1.2426.

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#USDX Technical analysis for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index although it bounced off support it did not manage to remain strong and is pulling back down. The next couple of sessions will be critical for the medium-term trend of the index. The short-term trend is neutral as neither bulls nor bears manage to keep the upper hand.

Red line = resistance

Blue line = support

The Dollar index has short-term support at 87.90 and resistance at 88.85. Price has been rejected in the upper cloud boundaries and this is not a good sign as it now moves below and out of the cloud. Breaking below the support level will most probably signal an important top was made at 89.55 and we are at the beginning of a bigger reversal. Breaking below support and closing below 87.50 will be the last stand for bulls.

The weekly chart is not looking good. This weekly candle may signal more downside action as it was the case in early September when we formed the 1st bullish flag. Bulls need to be very cautious if price breaks 87.50. I will turn bearish if we close below 87.50 expecting to test 86.50 very fast.

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Gold Technical analysis for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price continues to trade below important resistance of $1,240. As long as price is below that resistance level, we should expect a pullback towards $1,200 at least. Sell signal will be given if $1,215 is broken. The trend is sideways and the levels that give buy or sell signals are very clear.

Red line = horizontal support of yesterdays lows

Blue line = trend line support

Gold price continues to trade sideways. Price is above support at $1,215 and as long as price is above that levels, then bulls still have a chance for another move higher. Resistance at $1,240 is critical and another rejection at that area will be a bearish signal that could push Gold back below $1,200.

Gold is making higher highs and higher lows. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and as long as Gold price does not break $1,180 then bulls have the upper hand. If $1,180 is broken we should expect to see new lows below $1,130. Until then, bulls still have many chances of seeing $1,270.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 12/12/2014 08:15 CET

The market has broken out of the black channel yesterday but it was capped by the golden trend line resistance after making a local high at the level of 148.04. Currently, this upward wave progression might be considered as wave -i- blue, but as long as the level of 148.32 is not clearly broken, the corrective cycle might not necessary be completed. The price might get back to the channel to complete one more wave to the downside. The initial target projection for the downside wave is at the level of 145.70, but it might extend even lower.

Support/Resistance:

151.04 - WR1

149.76 - Technical Resistance

149.00 - Weekly Pivot

148.04 - Intraday Resistance

148.32 - WS1

146.42 - Intraday Support

146.34 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders: unfortunately, sell orders from the level of 147.37 have been closed on BE unless you have closed your trades manually (as the TP was missed by mere 7 pips). The price is now in the exact middle of the intraday range, so trading should now be limited and traders should wait for one of the important levels breakout. The bias is still to the upside in near and medium term.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 12/12/2014 07:55 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the upward wave progression is unfolding nicely and the first target at the level of 1.1519 has been hit. Currently, the market is in the corrective cycle where wave c purple is missing for now. The target level for this wave is 1.1500. The rebound is expected from this level, that will eventually break out above the last temporary high at the level of 1.1550 and hit the last target this week at the level of 1.1579.

Support/Resistance:

1.1579 - WR2

1.1550 - Intraday Resistance

1.1519 - WR1

1.1500 - Intraday Support

1.1416 - Weekly Pivot

1.1396 - Intraday Support

1.1357 - WS1

1.1339 - Leading Diagonal Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Day traders: buy stop entry from Wednesday from the level of 1.1460 has hit the first target at the level of 1.1519 and it might be still kept open as the TP is at the level of 1.1579. SL at break even.

Swing traders: please remember that the uptrend is still intact, and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1189 invalidates the mid-term bullish outlook.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 12 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

We are still looking for support at 1.5789 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5981 confirming that wave ii is over and wave iii higher to 1.6526, where wave iii will be 161.8% of wave i. Even though it's hard to believe, then the trend is still up here. It feels like we have traded in the same area forever now. However, once the resistance line and resistance at 1.6200 gives away, the way higher should be cleared for acceleration higher.

Trading recommendation:

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The correction from 149.13 is behaving as expected. We are still looking for a wave c lower to the first target at 144.78. Wave c could extend and cause a deeper decline towards the 38.2% corrective target or even the 50% corrective target. When wave (ii) becomes an expanded flat like we see it here, then we always expect wave (iii) to extend, but more about that, when it becomes time to look for wave three higher. For now, we should stay below 148.25 for a break below 146.42 confirming the decline to 144.78.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 147.97 with stop placed at 148.35. We will place our take profit at 147.85. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 147.20 with the same stop and stop-profit.

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Forecast on Gold For December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The yellow metal prices drifted after the publication of the U.S. jobs and retail sales. Today, the focus has shifted to PPI, core PPI, and prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The prices took support at 21hrsma and $1,215.00. The Russian central bank decision supported the prices throughout the day. The Russian central bank raised interest rates to 10.50%. The metal made a double top at $1,237.90 and corrected a bit at yesterday's session. Ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week, the metal is looking mildly strong. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to undertake monetary policy review at a 2-day meeting next week 16-17 December, 2014. The policy meeting will be keenly watched for any hints on the timing of the interest rates hike. The safe buying will trigger above $1,240.00. At yesterday's session, we recommended selling below $1,223.00 and it indeed gave good money. The prices successfully held at the support of a 2-week trend line; they are consolidating above it. In case if the prices fall below the trend line, we can expect $1,212.00 and $1,209.00 to act as other support levels.

Strong momentum only above $1,240.00.

Double top is at $1,237.90.

Panic selling will take place below $1,209.0 at $1,200.00 and $1,192.00 levels.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12, 2014 Market Analysis Review

IMPACT ON THE EURO -

The second allotment of the TLRO came in at 129.84 billion Euros, but it was expected at 148.84 billion Euros. Today, the focus has shifted to the industrial production report, the employment change data, and German wholesale price index. We are expecting industrial production to rise by 0.2% or 0.3% after a progress in October. As for the employment data, we are expecting the same. Speaking about Germany's WPI, we are expecting 0.3% growth after a 0.6% fall.

Technical view -

The cross managed to close above 20Dsma at yesterday's session. The cross managed to pause its 3-day losing streak. Today, the cross opened with a bullish buas, opened lower 147.24. It has been facing strong resistance at 20hrsma and support around 147.20. In case if the prices manage to trade above 20hrsma, it can challenge 147.72, 147.95, and 148.05. The trading pattern is framed between 147.20 and 147.70. We can expect strong upswing momentum only above 148.10 and 34hrsma levels. On the h4 chart, the prices are closed and trading below a 3-week trend line. Until the prices close above the trend line, bears have an upper hand in the near term.

Trade: sell below 147.20.

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