Wednesday 11 September 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 12, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 133.81


R2: 133.24


R1: 132.80


Current Spot: 132.59


S1: 132.34


S2: 131.95


S3: 131.68


Technical summary:


The correction from 133.37 has become slightly deeper than was needed for a perfect form. It has destroyed the bullish outlook, only a break below 131.84 will question the rally from 129.89. However, with a low at 132.34, just one pip below our second support, we should be ready for the next rally higher towards 133.81 and 134.48. In short term a break above 132.80 will be the first good indication that the next rally higher is developing, while a break above 133.24 confirms, that the correction is over and move higher towards 133.81 is ongoing.


Trading recommendation:


Stay long in EUR from 130.75 with your stop at 132.30. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy after a break above 132.80 with the same stop at 132.30.


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#USDX Analysis for September 11, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index did not do much yesterday and traded around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, very likely making a bottom formation. We remain neutral and wait for an entry signal as we believe that it is more possible for the index to continue upwards.



We expect an upward bounce towards at least 82.25. At that price level we should get a clearer picture whether the bullish or bearish scenario will prevail. The bearish scenario sees three waves up from 80.76 and 5 waves down from 82.66. This implies that further downward movement is expected. The important level that would cancel this scenario is the recent high at 82.67 and if prices rise upwards in an impulsive pattern.



The bullish scenario as shown in the daily chart above, sees 5 waves up from 80.76 and a downward correction to the 50% retracement. Bulls should hold 80.76 which is the start of the upward wave move. Prices from 84.75 have not fallen in an impulsive pattern, something that implies that the longer-term trend is not downward. Bulls will need to move upwards in an impulsive pattern and break above 82.67 highs. We remain neutral as there is still no clear sign. Short-term trend remains downward but prices are supported at 81.65 and 81.50.


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Gold has made a lower low yesterday confirming our bearish view and the target of 1,350-60. Prices are not accelerating downwards because as shown in the chart below, the daily support trendline, depicted in the chart by the blue upward sloping trendline, stands at 1,355.



Gold, however, is making lower lows and lower highs. This implies that the trend is downward and unless prices break above 1,370 there is high probability that prices will break below support and test the 1,340-30 price level. The short-term resistance is found at 1,370 and at 1,395 which is the most important level. Breaking above those two levels, the road will be open to retest the recent highs at 1,433.



The pattern in the 1 hour chart above confirms the downtrend as prices continue to trade within the downward sloping channel. Breaking above 1,395 will signal the exit of this channel. Prices are supported at 1,360-55 and this could be a short-term bottom. It is very possible that an important bottom is being formed around these levels and a new upward move could start with new highs above 1,433 as a target. We are neutral waiting for any signal to be given by an upward or downward break of the price levels we mentioned earlier.


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