07/21/15 ~ Best and Easy Analyst News

Tuesday 21 July 2015

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 22, 2015 Market Analysis Review

On the daily chart, GBP/USD has been trading in favor of a bearish bias. Now, it is testing the 200 SMA again. We are waiting for a breakout below that dynamic support. If that happens in the near terme, it would be expected to fall until the support level of 1.5450 in coming days. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

GBP/USD is consolidating below the 200 SMA on the H1 chart and continues to build a very solid intraday bearish structure. Support zone of 1.5524 remains very strong. Temporal bullish momentum favored price action. That is why we should wait for a breakout there in order to continue trading on the downside.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5755

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5596 / 1.5639

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5524 / 1.5485

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5596, take profit is at 1.5639, and stop loss is at 1.5554.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 22, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

On April 9, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom (which initiated the ongoing bullish swing) was reached.

A daily closure above 1.5060 exposed the next resistance levels at 1.5400 and 1.5450 where a temporary bearish pullback took place on April 29.

The next bullish swing extended up to the levels of 1.5750-1.5800, which offered traders few valid sell entries (depicted with red arrows). The final bearish target at 1.5450 was already reached.

Recently, strong bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels around 1.5800 via the ongoing bullish swing.

That is why, the resistance level at 1.5800 was temporarily breached. Hence, GBP/USD bulls pursued towards 100% Fibonacci Expansion located around 1.5900 where the depicted successive lower highs were initiated.

Hence, the level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier this week due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

The level of 1.5555 (prominent demand level/depicted uptrend line) got breached earlier last week due to excessive bearish pressure. This enhanced the bearish side of the market towards 1.5360.

As suggested in our previous articles, a bullish pullback towards 1.5550-1.5600 was expected to occur.

Our suggested sell entry around 1.5600 got triggered last week. It is still trading almost around entry levels. S/L should be set as a daily closure above 1.5600.

Early fixation below the price zone of of 1.5550-1.5500 is mandatory to pursue towards bearish targets, initially at 1.5450.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher bottoms were established. Bullish pressure was applied against the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came quite bullish when the pair needed frank weekly closure below 1.2300. This reflected a lack of enough bearish momentum.

That is why, an extensive bullish movement is being seen on the chart. A bullish breakout above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the level of 1.3080 if enough bullish support is offered around the recently established SUPPORT zone (1.2750-1.2800).

Conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2800 or probably slightly lower, for a valid buy entry with a low risk/reward ratio (Breakout level = Recent Support).

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expeceted to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting the monthly high of 124.38 on Monday. the pair is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.01 versus 97.96 early Monday) after Fed's Bullard said he sees more than 50% probability for the US central bank to tighten the monetary policy in September. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year rose 3.0 bps to 2.379% Monday), some stronger-than-expected US earnings reports, demand from Japan's importers, the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, and reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen as investor risk aversion subsides amid receding fears about Greece's financial situation and the signs of stabilization in China's stock markets. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter one is at overbought levels. Five-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.60 and the second target at 124.90. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.70 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.35. The pivot point is at 123.90.

Resistance levels: 124.60 124.90 125.45

Support levels: 123.70 123.35 123

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting almost the three-month high of 0.9651 this morning. The pair is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment, the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention, the negative Swiss interest rates, and the franc sales on the rebounding EUR/CHF cross.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought levels. Five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9655 and the second target at 0.9690. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9535 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.95. The pivot point is at 0.9570.

Resistance levels: 0.9655 0.9690 0.9745

Support levels: 0.9535 0.95 0.9450

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish bias. It is supported by kiwi demand on the soft AUD/NZD cross, kiwi demand on the buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion, and the comment of New Zealand Prime Minister John Key that the kiwi's decline of 25% to US$0.6500 over the past 12 months was faster than expected. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the soft dairy prices and expectations that the RBNZ will cut the cash rate by 25 bps to 3.0% this week.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as 5- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6640 and the second target at 0.6670. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6505 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6465. The pivot point is at 0.6555.

Resistance levels: 0.6640 0.6670 0.6725

Support levels: 0.6505 0.6465 0.64

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where significant bullish engulfing weekly candlesticks were expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. A bearish breakout below 1.5500 took place two weeks ago.

However, previous week's candlestick indicates bullish rejection besides a lack of strong bearish momentum below 1.5500.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders the further bearish decline and enhances the bullish side of the market.

It allows a quick bullish pullback towards 1.5750 (supply level) as long as bulls keep defending their key level at 1.5550 (50% Fibonacci level).

On the other hand, the nearest demand level around 1.5200 becomes exposed if GBP/USD bears manage to close again below the level of 1.5500.

After a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel (roughly around 1.5500-1.5550), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level of 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880.

Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone. It offered a valid sell entry few weeks ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top) was broken temporarily allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom had been recently established.

Last week, strong bullish price actions have been expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 has been taking place. The level of 1.5550 was breached during last week's consolidations.

The level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the nearest supply level. A counter-trend intraday sell entry can be offered when further retesting occurs.

On the other hand, intraday bullish demand should be expected around the level of 1.5550 (being tested today). An intraday BUY position can be valid as long as bulls keep defending the level of 1.5550 on a daily basis.

On the contrary, a daily closure below 1.5550 hinders further bullish advancement allowing a quick bearish decline towards 1.5470 and 1.5370.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997). Bullish recovery was expressed shortly after.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflected recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still located at 0.9450 provided that a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

A bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 could be possible only if May's monthly high at 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1000 again where the uptrend came to meet the EUR/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish daily closure below 1.0950 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 (was already reached) and 1.0700 yet to come (projection target for the reversal pattern).

Initial bullish recovery has been manifested earlier today after hitting the price level of 1.0810. The bulls may be trying to bring a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1000.

A bullish pullback towards the recently-established supply zone (price zone of 1.0950-1.0990) can offer a valid sell entry. S/L should be located above 1.1050. T/P levels should remain at 1.0850 and 1.0700.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. The pair is supported by the reduced worries about Greece. But GBP/USD losses are tempered by the hawkish monetary policy stance of the Bank of England and diminished investor risk aversion.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish. Five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194 and the second target at 194.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 191.50 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 190.65. The pivot point is at 192.35.

Resistance levels: 194 194.70 195.50

Support levels: 191.50 190.65 190

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

EUR/NZD: analysis for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6359 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe a weak downward bar in a volume below the average. There is also an inside-bar formation at the level of 16677 (held successful) and a low (support) at 1.6340. Watch for a potential breakout of inside-bar support or resistance. Besides, the price has broke our upward trendline. The short-term trend is neutral, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am still waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price actions to confirm the further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6595

R2: 1.6645

R3: 1.6728

Support levels:

S1: 1.6440

S2: 1.6390

S3: 1.6312

Trading recommendations: Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we have the fake breakout in the background.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via EUR/NZD: analysis for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of Gold for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the level $1,106.00 at the moment, looking for an opportunity to get higher towards at least $1,130.00/40.00. Please note that $1,130.00/40.00 is the past support turned resistance and also the fibonacci 0.382 resistance of a drop between $1,205.00 and $1,187.00 respectively. It is hence recommended to remain flat now and look to enter short around $1,130.00/40.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,087.00 (interim), followed by $1,052.00, $1,030.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $1,130.00/40.00 followed by $1,175.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

Technical analysis of Silver for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is seen to be trading around $14.80 levels at the moment, after having printed interim highs at $15.00 levels earlier. Please note that the metal seems have hit a low at $14.55 yesterday. A morning star candlestick pattern is also seen on the hourly charts, indicating at least a pullback if not reversal. It is hence recommended to remain long for now, with risk at $14.25. Immediate support is seen at $14.55/60 levels (interim), followed by $14.0, $13.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $15.50 (interim) followed by $15.45, $15.85, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $14.25, a target is open.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of Silver for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY is back above 135.00 at the moment and should be taken out towards at least 135.20/30 in this swing rally. Please note that the pair has bounced off the 0.786 fibonacci support level (134.00) when ralling between 133.25 to 137.75 respectively. It is recommended to remain long with risk at 133.00. Immediate support is seen at 133.00/25 (interim) followed by 131.50 and lower while resistance is seen at 135.25/30 (interim) followed by 136.25, 137.75, 139, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around the 1.4930 levels after printing lows around 1.4923 as expected and discussed yesterday. As depicted here, the pair is still expected to push lower towards the 1.4800 levels before reversing. Please also note that the support/rising trendline is also passing through the same region along with Fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between the 1.4475 and 1.5025 levels respectively. Hence it is recommended to hold short positions for now with risk at the 1.5050 levels. Immediate support is seen at the 1.4900 levels followed by 1.4850 and lower, while resistance is seen at the 1.5030 levels (interim) followed by 1.5100 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now. Stop is at 1.5050, target is 1.4800.

Good luck!

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

Overview:

It should be noticed that there is no gap this week because the EUR/USD pair has opened at the same price it had closed last week. This week, the pivot point sets at the level of 1.0951 and the weekly support 1 is seen at 1.0705. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.0705 and the weekly pivot point will act as minor resistance. So, according to the previous events, the price has still been moving between the levels of 1.0828 and 1.0951. Thenceforward, the area above 1.0828 (above the weekly double bottom) calls for further upside with the first target at 1.0915 in order to test the minor resistance and continue towards 1.3805. However, stop loss should be placed below the weekly support 1 (1.0705).

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Gold : analysis for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,106.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a strong downward bar in an ultra-high volume (selling climax), so selling at this stage looks risky. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe low volatility and weak price actions. Since the price has broken support at $1,132.00, we may expect potential testing of the level of $1,035.00 (monthly support). Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. Selling climax is active so selling at this stage looks risky because of a possible bullish correction.The resistance level is around $1,118.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,124.00

R2: 1,132.00

R3: 1,146.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,097.00

S2: 1,088.70

S3: 1,075.00

Trading recommendations: Supply in an ultra high volume (selling climax) on the market in the background. Selling gold at this stage looks risky, so watch for potential retracement. Also, every selling climax is potentialyl hidden buying by professionals, so trade carefuly.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Gold : analysis for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD pair:

Trading recommendations:

According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between the levels of 1.5503 and 1.5675 (the double top). Also, it should be noted that the weekly pivot point is found at 1.5576. So, if the trend succeeds to break the weekly pivot point at 1.5576, our advice will be to buy above the level of 1.5576 with the first target at 1.5630. Additionally, the trend will be able to continue toward the level of 1.5675, which represents the double top in the H1 chart.

Notes:

If the trend is of an upside character, the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.
Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account. Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapped and going up or down. If you sell or buy for a long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit.

Preview:

R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets as prices are most likely to be located between the R1 and S1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.

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For detail explanation and best discovery on daily market trends and news you may visit via Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 . Thanks for your support.

Technical analysis of AUD/CHF for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The change in the momentum for the AUD/CHF pair has been detected; it should result in a corrective wave up. After the pair bounced from the downtrend trendline, the price broke above the key resistance R1 (0.7092).

While the bullish divergence has been formed on longer- and short-term scales, it indicates that sentiment is changing in bulls favor. At the same time, the price rejected the uptrend trendline that could be a signal that AUD/CHF is ready to move higher today or this week.

Consider buying AUD/CHF near R1 targeting either R2 (0.7209) or R3 (0.7272) resistance levels taken from the Fibonacci applied to the 07.05 low and 14.05 high. One move lower than S1 (0.7042) could either result in the consolidation or continuation of the downtrend.

Support: 0.7042

Resistance: 0.7272, 0.7209, 0.7272

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Global macro overview for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

After almost a month of Greek negotiations with creditors, the market is now going back to the fundamentals. The creditors made some important decisions towards the future of the eurozone and the euro currency during the hectic weeks of negotiations with Greek people. It looks like the worst scenario for Greece (Grexit) has been avoided for now, so the market participants again can focus on the economic data from the EU. The first important news release is today's German IFO business climate indicator for the month of July. The market expects the number to be quite high at the level of 107.4 with the current assessment data at the level of 113.1.

The most liquid currency in the world is trading just above the key support at the level of 1.0815 at the time of writing.

The scheduled news release is as follows (GMT):

08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate 107.4

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment 113.1

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations 102.0

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USDX technical analysis for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US Dollar Index remained strong yesterday despite weakness in the early trading hours. The price is now breaking above the 98 resistance level increasing chances of success for the bullish scenario. The US Dollar Index could make a short-term pullback but othe verall trend remains bullish.

Black lines - upward sloping channel

The US Dollar Index is inside an upward sloping channel. Tenkan-sen (red line) support is held for now. If broken we could see a push towards the lower channel boundary and most probably towards the kijun-sen indicator (yellow line).

Blue line - horizontal resistance

The weekly chart remains bullish and now that the recent high at 98 is broken, the bullish scenario of new highs gains even more points. Tenkan- and kijun-sen are positively sloped, price is making higher highs and higher lows. I remain bullish.

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Gold technical analysis for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price bounced yesterday after a sharp decline towards $1,090. It managed to reach only the 38% retracement. The price has been sliding lower since then last night we saw gold prices going back below $1,100 once again. With $1,095 as a short-term low support, gold prices try to bounce again, but the trend remains bearish.

Blue line - trend line resistance

Gold prices remain below the blue trend-line resistance and the Ichimoku cloud. As long as the price is below $1,130-40 resistance we should be heading towards $1,030 or even $900. The price bounced right at the 38% retracement and got rejected. Short-term resistance is seen at $1,120. If it gets broken, we could see a bounce towards the 61.8% retracement of $1,135.

Blue line- long-term trend line support

Red lines - equal size decline projection

The blue trend-line support is broken. Unless we see a back test towards $1,135-40 soon, we should expect a decline in gold prices to be of similar size to the distance from the trend-line support to the January highs. So, gold is expected to move towards $1,000 or even lower in coming weeks.

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Technical analysis of AUD/CAD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The fall in commodity prices badly hurts the Australian economy. After the commodities super cycle, iron prices have been falling very badly. The recent gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

Goldman Sachs expects iron ore prices to continue to fall until the second quarter of 2016.

The nuclear deal makes oil prices move lower. Lower oil prices directly effects the Canadian economy.

At yesterday's session, data on the Canadian whole sales came out on the down side. Wholesale sales decreased by 1.0% to $54.5 billion in May, following two consecutive periods of increases.

Technical view: The cross has been trading on a bearish bias. The cross re-test 0.9400 three times in 15 months, but successfully managed to close above that. The 20Dsma is found at 0.9515, 50Dsma is found at 0.9515 and 20Wsma is seen at 0.9570. Traders can keep an eye on this cross, big moves are likely to take place in coming days. A weekly close below 0.9400 opens gayes to a big fall. In the weekly charts, we can observe a big head and shoulder pattern. The cross has been testing the neck line.

In the daily chart, the cross formed a double top at 0.9587 and 0.9617 again. The intraweek pattern shifts to mild-buying with sl 0.9500. We recommend fresh selling below 0.9500 towards 0.9420 and 0.9400.

Intraday support is found at 0.9550, 0.9520 and 0.9510. Resistance is seen at 0.9575, 0.9587, and 0.9617. Small buying is available above 0.9600 with targets at 0.9615, 0.9630, and 0.9660.

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Forecast of AUD/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

RBA meeting minutes were released at today's Asian session. The Board decided to leave the rate unchanged at 2.0%.

Members noted that global economic conditions remained consistent with growth in Australia's major trading partners being around average over the period ahead.

Domestically, the key forces shaping the economy over the past year were much as they had been for some time. Very low interest rates supported strong growth in dwelling investment and, together with strong housing prices, underpinned consumption growth.

Recent data indicated that employment had grown more rapidly than the population and the unemployment rate had been relatively stable since the latter part of the previous year.

Commodity prices fell further and the Australian dollar was depreciated over the past month. Although the exchange rate against the US dollar was close to levels last seen in 2009, the decline in the Australian dollar had been more modest in terms of a basket of currencies.

AUD/USD

The aussie bounce froma 6-year low ahead of the RBA minutes. After the minutes, the aussie volatility was arrested at the Asian session. US dollar bulls are unlikely to lose their grip. Traders eye Q2 inflation readings and RBA governor Stevens's speech scheduled for tomorrow.

The cross found support at 0.7268 and 0.7233. The cross is trading at 0.7369 at the Asian session. In the daily chart, the recent price movement brought 0.7349 as the key level to watch on a daily closing basis. The real selling ignites below 0.7230 for another 200 pips fall. The fall in commodity prices badly hurts the Australian economy. After the commodities super cycle, iron prices have been falling very badly. The recent gold prices added some more pressure to the AUD.

For an intraweek period, the cross favors selling on a rise. In an extreme case, the cross can climb towards 0.7460, but it is unlikely to happen. Use rises to sell with sl 0.7500. The intraday support is found at 0.7330 and 0.7300. Fresh selling is available below 0.7300 with targets at 0.7270, 0.7250, and 0.7230. A low around 0.7300 is likely to be reached today.

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Global macro overview for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 21/07/2015:

Last night, the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes from its monetary policy meeting. The Australian central bank admitted the currency is overvalued on current market levels, however it looks like the bank wants to keep it this way and further cuts are not on the table right now. The biggest impact on the Australian economy came from a falling mining investment, unemployment at 6% and subdued wages. The current interest rates are at 2%, so there is still a room for a further cuts.

The AUD/USD technical picture reveals no big surprises as the AUD is slowly but surely falling to test the key support at the level of 0.7266.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/07/2015 09:00 CET

As mentioned yesterday, the sideways corrective cycle will continue for some time now in wave 2 black or wave alt: iv green. Nevertheless, it is still a correction that has tested the golden trendline from the downside and got rejected right on the level of 1.3022. Please notice the market is trading in a tight range, but a breakout to the upside is expected to complete the impulsive wave progression. The first weekly technical target for both counts is seen at the level of 1.3072. Only a sustained breakout below the technical support at 1.2804 would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Support/Resistance:

1.3072 - WR3

1.3022 - WR2

1.3006 - WR1

1.2955 - Weekly Pivot

1.2947 - Intraday Support

1.2932 - WS1

1.2890 - WS2

1.2862 - WS3

1.2804 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Buying on dips is the way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 1.2947 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 21/07/2015 08:50 CET

Sideways consolidation continues fter a successful intraday test of the intraday support at 134.36. The market is range bounded between the levels of 135.04 and 134.36. A breakout to the upside is being expected, but any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 134.36 would extend a downfall towards the wave A blue support at the level of 133.28.

Support/Resistance:

135.77 - WR3

136.17 - WR2

135.34 - WR1

135.04 - Weekly Pivot

134.74 - Intraday Resistance

134.36 - Intraday Support

134.23 - WS1

133.89 - WS2

133.28 - Swing Low

133.09 - WS3

Trading recommendations:

Due to the sideways price action, trading advise is still valid: buying on dips is a way to trade on this market and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only if the level of 134.36 is clearly violated ( hourly candle close below this level).

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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: Bears have not shown any signs of relenting this week, although there was no significant movement on Monday. The Bearish Confirmation Pattern is intact in the market, and the support line at 1.0800 could be violated. In case the support line is successfully breached, the next target would be the support line at 1.0750.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair still epresses willingness to go further north by moving upward by 40 pips on Monday. This is a slight continuation of the current dominant bullish bias, and the resistance level at 0.9650 is under siege now. In case the resistance level gets breached to the upside, the next target would be the resistance level at 0.9700.

GBP/USD: Irrespective of recent consolidation, there is still a clean bullish bias on the cable. For the bullish bias to continue being valid, the distribution territory at 1.5650 must be breached to the upside: otherwise there could be a risk of a strong bearish correction this week.

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been trending strongly for the most part of this month. The price has closed above the demand level at 124.00, going towards the supply level at 124.50. Should that supply level be broken to the upside, the next target would be another supply level of 125.00.

EUR/JPY: The fate of the EUR/JPY pair would continue to be determined by whatever happens to the euro. The euro is currently weak - hence the bearish outlook on the cross. The bearish outlook can only be reversed in case the euro becomes significantly strong.

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Forecast of Gold for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The metal lost 4% at yesterday's session closing below the level of 1100.00.

About 3.3 million physical contracts for the metal were traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. In the South Africa, the mining sector waged negotiations resumed on Monday.

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust holdings, faced a decline in output of 0.26% to 694.46 tons compared to the previous day.

China official Gold reserves hit the level of 1658 tons at the end of the previous month. This was the first reported increase in 6 years.

Indian government curbs gold imports. India is the second largest customer of the precious metal after China. The rural economy has been struggling for a while in India. This factor influences gold sales along with two-wheeler, tractor, and FMCG sales.

The nuclear agreement with Iran depresses commodities like gold and crude.

Barclays says if the price of gold falls below $ 1,100.00, gold production will be vulnerable.

Technical forecast: In the weekly chart, the metal manage to hold the channel support trend line finds at $1,085.00.

The metal has been reaching lower highs and lower lows breaking below a large bearish head & shoulders pattern. In all time frames, the precious metal lost all moving averages.

At yesterday's session, we advised to refrain from fresh selling. Selling accelerates only below $1,085.00. Selling on a rise is likely to be profitable.

Intraday support is found at $1,094.00 and $1,085.00. Resistance is seen at $1,108.00, $1,120.00, and $1,134.00. The weekly support is found at $1,085.00, $1,068.00, and $1,060.00. The metal is likely to test $1,068.00 initially and $1,045.00 and $1,005.00 later. The level of $9,65.00 is likely to be hit in the next 6 months in the extreme case. The strong supply zone is seen at $1,134.00, $1,142.00, and $1,163.00. A weekly close below $1,085.00 opens gates to $1,063 and $1,045.00 in the near term.

Forecast of GBP/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

At yesterday's session, the cable rejected at 20Dsma again, falling below 50Dsma, but managing to close above that level. It was the 4th consecutive day in a row.

The near-term picture turns bearish, as the cable is likely to re-test 1.5500. It has been moving towards higher lows and higher highs in the daily chart.

Earlier in July, the cable broke the 20Dsma, but was unable to close above it. In the near term, it seems to be capped at 1.5700. A strong close above 1.5600 20Dsma is likely to enable bulls to come back on track, aiming to breach the 1.5700 mark. In this case, gates to 1.5800 will be open.

The cable broke the 3-month ascending trendline and failed to close above that. These are few factors supporting the near-term bearish view towards 1.5500.

The 50Wsma is found at 1.5600 and the 20Wsma 1.5270.

Recently, the S&P lowered the British 2015 GDP growth forecast to 2.6 % (previously expected growth of 2.8%), but improves the forecast for GDP in the eurozone.

Bulls: The cable gave a break from the bullish broadening wedge closing above that. The trend favors buying on dips with sl 1.5450. The 50Dsma is found at 1. 5560 and 100Dems is found at 1.5440.

Intraday support is found at 1.5540 and resistance is seen at 1.5575, 1.5600, and 1.5610. At yesterday's session, the cable hit a low at 1.5538. The intraday key zone to watch is located between 1.5510 and 1.5500, selling will accelerate below these levels towards 1.5450 during a day.

We can observe a bearish h&s pattern in the H1 chart. The cable has been managing to hold the neck line, but it is unlikely to go further to 1.5450. Safe selling is available below 1.5520 with targets at 1.5500, 1.5485, 1.5450, and 1.5435.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 21, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Given lack of macroeconomic data, today is understandably a quiet day on the euro and USD markets. Things should pick up rapidly on Friday, however as we don't have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward.

The pair closed below 20Wsma. The pair reached a large distribution territory between 1.1467 and 1.1437. In the daily chart, the pair lost all moving averages. The nearest support is found at 1.0785. We advised selling on rises with a target at 1.0720. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1080. In different time intervals (hourly and daily charts), the oscillators indicate oversold levels.

The pair has been reaching lower lows and lower highs, falling below the lower end of the ascending trendline. We recommend fresh selling only below 1.0780 with an initial target at 1.0720 and extending towards 1.0630 later.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0840, 1.0870, and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0750, and 1.0720.

Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0920, 1.0960, and 1.0980. Support is found at 1.0790, 1.0720, and 1.0650.

Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

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