Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate after hitting a three-week low at 0.7727 on Thursday. NZD/USD is under undermined by diminished investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross, broadly weaker USD undertone, NZD-USD interest differential and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical Comment:

Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7680. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7655. The pivot point stands at 0.7790. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7820 and the second target at 0.7850.

Resistance levels:

0.7850

0.7820

0.7785



Support levels:
0.7680

0.7655

0.7625

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate. GBP/JPY is supported by the improved EUR/USD undertone post ECB's decision and demand from Japan's importers. Bank of England on Thursday kept its benchmark rate at 0.5% and the size of its bond portfolio at GBP375 billion as widely anticipated. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by the diminished investor risk appetite, Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is mixed as five and 15 day moving averages are advancing, but MACD is bearish.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but MACD is bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 189.70 and the second target at 190.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 187.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 186.80. The pivot point is at 187.90.

Resistance levels:

189.70

190.40

190.75

Support levels:

187.35

186.80

186.30

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EUR/NZD : analysis for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested and rejected from the level of 1.5977 in an ultra high volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci expansion of 100% at the price of 1.5780 and Fibonacci expansion of 161.8% at the price of 1.5715. Our Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% at the price of 1.5910 held successfully, which enabled the price to start with a downward movement. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak demand. According to the 4H time frame, EUR/NZD is in an absorption phase. So, be careful when buying.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5962

R2: 1.5992

R3: 1.6042

Support levels:

S1: 1.5862

S2: 1.5832

S3: 1.5782

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD since we got an absorption volume in the background. Watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold : analysis for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,197.00 in a volume below average. According to the daily time frame, we can obesrve low activity, which is a sign that buying looks risky. Our Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1,197.00 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of 1,197.00, we may see the level of 1,191.00-1,186.00 is tested. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% at the price of 1,191.00 and Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% at the price of 1,172.00. My advice is to look for buying opportunities near the lows (after retracement). Any larger reaction from buyers may confirm further bullish continuation.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,212.17

R2: 1,215.09

R3: 1,219.83

Support levels:

S1: 1,202.69

S2: 1,199.77

S3: 1,195.03

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).

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#USDX Wave analysis for December 5, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has made a strong pull back yesterday after the comments by ECB president Mario Draghi. The long-term trend remains bullish. There is however a chance that the index is forming a bearish wedge or in elliott wave terms an ending diagonal pattern to complete the upward move from 79.75.

The Dollar index remains above the Ichimoku cloud support. The upward move consists of overlapping wave structures. I believe this is a characteristic of an ending diagonal pattern or technically speaking of a bearish wedge at the end of an upward move. The Dollar index might make one fresh higher high but I believe it is close to reversing the trend. Bulls will need to be very cautious and a break below support at 87.50 will be a critical blow to the long-term bullish trend.

The weekly chart continues to be bullish and shows no worrying signals. So, no reversal signs according to our weekly chart but bulls need to be extra cautious at current levels because there is increased chances of seeing a trend reversal as the rise from 79.75 is at its final stages. Important support is at 87.75. If broken, this would be the first reversal sign.

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Gold Technical analysis for December 5, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price continues to trade sideways. A pullback towards $1,180 is quite possible before the resumption of the uptrend towards $1,270. The short-term trend is neutal as long as price is below $1,215. Bulls should be worried if support at $1,170 fails. On the other hand, bears could see a push above $1,215 which will start to cover short positions.

Red line = support

Gold price as shown on the above chart is consolidating above support at $1,200. Breaking below it will bring Gold price towards the cloud support and the Ichimoku cloud near $1,180. After this pullback, I believe it will be more probable to see a new upward move starting towards $1,270.

The weekly chart above shows how price closed above the Tenkan-sen last week. So, this week I expect to see a break towards the kijun-sen towards $1,230 at least. The next important resistance by the Fibonacci ratios is at $1,236 and then at $1,263. The weekly candle of last week is very bullish and I expect to see at least one more bullish weekly candle. So, the trend remains bullish in the short term with increased chances of a move towards $1,260-70.

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Technical Analysis on GBP/USD for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The BoE Monetary Policy Committee maintained Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at 375 billion pounds sterling. The pound closed marginally red against the US dollar. The pair has been facing strong resistance at 20Dsma for 8 days. The cable has support at 1.5630 on a daily closing basis. In case if the cable closes below 1.5630, we can expect 150-pips fall on the down side. Until the prices are closed and trading below 1.5764 (h4 candle), we can expect 1.5525 on the downside within the strong support zone existed between 1.5630 and 1.5585. From an intraday view, the prices are consolidating between 1.5679 and 1.5710. We recommend selling below 1.5660. The prices are closed and trading below 34hrsma on the h4 chart and the 35DEMA is acting as support at 1.5620. From an speculative perspective, we recommend selling below 1.5660 with the targets at 1.5645, 1.5620, and 1.5585. Today, the focus has shifted to US jobs data and the unemployment rate. Positive readings help the US dollar to make new highs. The cable's fate can be decided after today's US data. The prices are consolidating near the support zone. We can expect 200 pips either side movement in the near term.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 5, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 05/12/2014 08:30 CET

The complex and time-consuming corrective cycle continues to unfold, making rather limited progression so far. This pair is range bounded and next breakout might be crucial for providing more clues about possible further price movement. Nevertheless, the bias is still to the upside in the near and mid - term, even intraday. Any breakout above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1422 is bullish and the market should try to break out even higher to test the recent swing high at the level of 1.1454.

Support/Resistance:

1.1454 - Swing High

1.1446 - 1.1465 - Supply Zone

1.1422 - Intraday Resistance

1.1379 - Weekly Pivot

1.1339 - Intraday Support

1.1317 - WS1

1.1296 - Wave Z Brown Target Level

Trading recommendations:

The day traders should wait for the range breakout to trade this market in the proper direction. Please remember that the uptrend is still intact and swing traders still should consider buying the dips as the market has to complete more waves to the upside.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 05/12/2014 08:10 CET

The impulsive wave progression continues to the upside with another impulsive wave made yesterday. The top of this wave has hit the upper golden channel boundary at the level of 148.92 and reversed sharply to test the intraday support at the level of 148.17 and bounce. To confirm the intraday bullish bias, the market must break out above the swing high at the level of 149.15 and target the level of 149.76. Otherwise, the wave progression might evolve into an alternative count, that is still indicating rather complex and time-consuming wave X brown possibility before the sell-off.

Support/Resistance:

149.76 - WR2

149.15 - Swing High|Intraday Resistance|

149.11- WR1

148.17 - Intraday Support

147.34 - Weekly Pivot

147.02 - Intraday Support

146.55 - WS1

145.70 - Higher Time Frame Technical Support

144.89 - WS2

144.54 - 144.78 - Target Projection For Wave Y Brown

Trading recommendations:

Yesterday's buy stop orders from the level of 148.17 should be still kept opened and SL should be moved to the break even level. The target is still at the level of 149.11.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has rallied through 148.50 levels yesterday and remained just a few pips shy from 149.00 as seen here. It is recommended to exit short positions at market price at 148.50/60. Please note that the pair has kept the channel line support intact after a false break day before yesterday. Immediate resistance still remains at 149.10/20 levels while support is seen at 147.00, followed by 146.50, 145.50 and lower respectively. The pair could be looked to be bought during intraday dips ahead of 147.00 levels, risk remains at 147.00. A push through 149.00 now, could see 151.00 and subsequently 154.00 levels soon.

Trading recommendations:

Exit short positions now. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate 50% long positions now (148.50/60), stop below 147.00, the target is at 151.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 05, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The aggressive short trade setups at 1.5350 levels have worked out well in GBP/CHF yesterday.The pair has reacted at a fibonacci convergence at 1.5350/60 levels and subsequently dropped below 1.5200 levels as seen here. It is recommended to remain short if positions were taken yesterday, risk remains just above 1.5360. Fresh short positions could be added at current market or during intraday rallies. The fall is expected to accelerate once its rising counter trend line support is broken around 1.5150 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.5070, followed by 1.5000, 1.4950 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5550 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short (if positions taken yesterday), stop at 1.5400, target is open. Fresh short positions could be taken on intraday rallies.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 5 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

We are still locked in the range between 1.5788 to the downside and 1.6000 to the upside. Only a break out of this range will get things going again. We still favor a break towards the upside, for a rally towards 1.6274 on the way higher to 1.6446 and 1.6800. That said, the risk of cause is a break below 1.5788, that will delay the expected rally for a move closer to 1.5722 before the next rally should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5830 with stop placed at 1.5775. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5788 or upon a break above 1.5991 with the same stop.

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