Forecast and intraday analysis of gold for May 16, 2014 Trend News

The yellow was beaten by a strong US dollar. The recent economic data strengthen the USD. Yesterday, the printed economic data were in a mixed bag.

The metal is still trading below the white upper trendline (below chart) and 50 day SMA. From last two days it is making a lower lows and lower highs pattern. In Asia's trading session, the metal is trading at $1,296.60 levels. Currently, it is taking support at $1,295 levels. The Stochstics in daily chart is giving a positive indication for an up move up to $1,300 and may be even $1,308 levels. On the upside, if the metal trades above the $1,300, it will zoom up to $1,308. Next up move is seen to $1,320 and $1,324.60. A day close above the $1,300 will give some technical strength and a daily close above $1,308, thus providing strong rally up to $1,324.68 levels. Until the pair crosses the $1,326 and $1,330.70 levels, sell on the rally is favorable for positional traders.

On the downside, if the metal breaks the $1,290.60 level, it will take immediate supports at $1,288.6 and $1,284.70 levels. The metal looks weak below $1,284.70 and it will fall up to $1,278.50, $1,277 below this, $1,268.70, $1,259, $1,245, $1,235, $1,213 levels.

Intraday
The metal is trading in a range between $1,297.30-$1,292.90. If the metal breaks the lower range, it will fall up to $1,290.60, $1,2880.80, $1,287.70, $1,286.30 and $1,284.50. The panic button will be below $1,284 for $1,278.50-$1,277 levels. The level $1,277 is providing sufficient support from the last few weeks, breaks below this another wave of selling pressure up to lower levels.

The metal looks strong above $1,297.30 for $1,299.90, $1,302 and $1,306.70-$1,308 levels. Above $1,309 another round of buying.

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Analysis of EUR/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD
The pair dips to 11 week low compared to US dollar, it took the parallel support on February 27th low and close above 1.367 levels. The series of economic events drove the pair towards lower levels. The flash estimate for the Q1 of 2014 the eurozone's expansion during the Q1 was 0.2%, whereas Germany's economy is gaining momentum in the Q1 of 2014. If we look at the French economy, it is stagnant showing no growth in Q1 of 2014. The German's GDP up 0.8% in Q1 2014. From these economic points we can get a clear picture of the eurozone, that apart from Germany, eurozone growth is not at that pace as expected.

Technical view
The pair broke the crucial support at 1.3673 but well managed to close above this level. In yesterday's trading session, bulls tried very hard to close above the 1.367 levels. As we mentioned in our previous article (April 14, 2014), the game would change its direction only having closed below 1.367. This time bulls succeeded. Traders keep sl at 1.367 for long positions.

The daily momentum oscillators supported the bulls to take the pair above 1.37 levels again. The fib level 161.8 and February 27th low pause the down fall. On the upside, the pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3775. The trading range is fixed between 1.3775-1.364 levels. Once the pair breaks the 1.364 levels, it immediately will fall up to 1.3617 (200daily EMA) most crucial support below this, 1.3562 and 1.348 is an open target in coming sessions.

In Asia's session, the pair is trading at 1.3711. It is facing strong resistance at the 23.6 fib level. The pair looks safe for buyers only above 1.3732 levels. On the upside, the resistance exists at 1.3732, 1.376, 1.3775 and 1.38 levels. On the downside, if the pair breaks the 1.364 levels, it will drift up to 1.3617 immediately and later 1.3585 and 1.3562.

KEY LEVELS - 1.367

A weekly close above 1.367, bulls will have an upper hand

Intraday close above 1.3775, bulls will get some strength

Weekly closes below 1.367, gates open for deep correction.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q, Italian Trade Balance.The US will release the economic data too such as the Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

Today's technical levels:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3783.

Strong Resistance:1.3774.

Original Resistance: 1.3761.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3748.

Target Inner Area: 1.3715.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3682.

Original Support: 1.3669.

Strong Support: 1.3656.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3647.

Description:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3669 and 1.3761. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3656 and by 1.3774 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3647 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3783 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3682 and a SELL position at 1.3748. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3715.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com

email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief



Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 16, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m and the US will release some economic data such as Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

Today's technical levels:

Resistance. 3: 102.10.

Resistance. 2: 101.90.

Resistance. 1: 101.71.

Support. 1: 101.46.

Support. 2: 101.26.

Support. 3: 101.06.

Description:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.06) and resistance 3 (102.10). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com

email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief



Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 16, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been in a downtrend from 1.70 levels, making lowers highs and lower lows. In yesterday's trading session, the pair took support near the 50daily SMA at 1.6723 and 50.0 fib level, yesterday's low at 1.6732 levels. The initial strong support exists at 1.672 levels. The daily RSI is still in sell favors, but the daily Stochastics completely favors to buyers. As we recommended in yesterday's articles trades wait for 1.674 and then buy, the cable came to 1.6732 and taken an u turn up to 1.6806 levels.

On the up side, the pair is facing resistance at 1.68 levels, once sustain above this, it will fly up to 1.6875 levels. The pair is in safe zone, only above 1.6806 (yesterday's high). If the pair trades above the 1.6806 level, it will pause the downfall for some days and the lower high's formation will terminate. If the pair breaks the 1.672 levels, it will fall immediately up to 1.6696 and 1.666 levels.

Intraday
In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.6792 levels. The pair looks strong above 1.6806, weak below 1.6782 levels. On the upside, if the pair crosses the 1.6806, then it will shoot up to 1.6822, 1.6875 levels. On the downside, if it trades below the 1.6782, it will correct up to 1.6766, 1.6744 and 1.6720 levels.

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5744 on volume above the average according to the daily chart. We can observe bullish reaction on high volume from our major support level at the the price of 1.5765, which is a sign that we may smaller bullish reaction. The price tested our third support level at 1.5765 and if the price breaks that level on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1.5625 (Major Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful with short-term buying since EUR/NZD is in short-term downtrend and watch for selling opportunities. Resistance level is at the price of 1.5865 (previous swing low).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5881

R2: 1.5905

R3: 1.5944

Support levels:

S1: 1.5804

S2 : 1.5780

S3: 1.5742

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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GOLD analysis for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upward, the price tested the level of 1,308.83 on volume just above the average according to the daily chart. As you can see in the chart, our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1,288.00 held successfully, and that caused price to start upward movement and test the level of 1,305.64. According to the Daily timeframe, we can observe strong bullish reactions from our support 1,277.00 on higher volume, which is a sign that short-term selling looks very risky. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential end of bearish corrective phase and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,290.00. I found potential resistance level at the price of 1,305.00 (swing low). If the price breaks the level of 1,305.00 on higher volume, we may see possible tetsting the level of 1,315.00 (previous swing high). Be careful with selling and watch for buying opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,308.75

R2: 1,312.85

R3: 1,319.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,295.45

S2: 1,291.35

S3: 1,284.70

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term selling since our major support level at the price of 1,277.00 held successfully

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. USD/JPY is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year hit six-and-a-half month low of 2.5249 Wednesday) and selling of yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 0.33% to 12.17) as the U.S. stocks fell overnight (S&P 500 off 0.47%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers. Daily chart is tilting negative as MACD is in bearish mode, stochastics is turning bearish.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold zone, MACD is staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.60. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.40. The pivot point stands at 102.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.35 and the second target at 102.55.

Resistance levels:

102.35

102.55

102.85

Support levels:

101.60

101.40

101.20

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate. It is supported by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance. But CHF sentiment is boosted by the rise in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse Indicator of Economic Sentiment to 7.4 in May from 7.0 in April. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought zone; five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8875 and the second target at 0.8850. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8975. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9. The pivot point is at 0.8900.

Resistance levels:

0.8975

0.9

0.9025

Support levels:

0.8875

0.8850

0.8815

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion and Japan exporter sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 170.40. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 169.80. The pivot point stands at 171.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.80 and the second target at 172.35.

Resistance levels:

171.80

172.35

172.85

Support levels:

170.40

169.80

168.25

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate after hitting one-week high at 0.8678 on Wednesday. It is supported by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and buoyant commodity prices. But NZD/USD upside is limited by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. . Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8695 and the second target at 0.8745. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8600. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8545. The pivot point is at 0.8625.

Resistance levels:

0.8695

0.8745

0.8780

Support levels:

0.8600

0.8545

0.8525

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In today's H4 chart, the metal is still trading between the Support level of 19.50 and the Resistance level of 19.75 after it failed to break the Resistance level of 20.00 yesterday and bounced from it to take a slightly downward move. Currently, it is approaching the Resistance level of 19.75. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above this Resistance level in case of bouncing from the Support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.00, then after breaking this Resistance level silver would open the way towards the Resistance level of 20.20, which means more bullish signals.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.20), R2 (20.00), R1 (19.75), S1 (19.50), S2 (19.20), S3 (18.90).

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.8873 and 0.8993. So we expect a large range about 93 pips in the future. The breakout seen at the ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement level (the double top in H1 chart) for that the key level is set at the level of 0.8872 because it is representing strong support and it is coinciding with the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will a good sign to buy above 0.8872 with the first target of 0.8955. It will call for uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 0.8982.


• On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be placed below the double top at the price of 0.8850.

Notes :

• Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• According to the preceding events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between 1.6792 and 1.6725.


• Sell at the level of 1.6795 (the weeky resistance) with the first target at the 1.6730 price in order to test the minor support, then it will call for downward pressure in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.6660 in order to test this strong support (the price of 1.6660 is going to represent the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci).


• At the same time, the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.6833.


• On the contrary, if the trend fails to close below the level of 1.666, it will be very advantageous, but above the 1.6660 price with a target at 1.6770, then at the price of 1.6800.

Intraday technical levels :

Date: 15/05/2014

Pair: GBP/USD

• R3: 1.6962


• R2: 1.6918


• R1: 1.6842


• PP: 1.6798


• S1: 1.6722


• S2: 1.6678


• S3: 1.6602

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.5985

R2: 1.5917

R1: 1.5858

Current spot: 1.5785

S1: 1.5717

S2: 1.5686

S3: 1.5653

Technical summary:

We are now in the very last part of the decline from 1.7274. Once this huge correction is over a new powerful rally should be seen. We are still looking for a move closer to the ideal corrective target at 1.5653 before the final bottom is in place, but to indicate that the bottom is in place, a break above resistance at 1.5858 is needed, and to confirm the bottom, a break above resistance at 1.5990 is needed.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 1.5675 or upon a break above 1.5858. Stop will be placed at 1.5575.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.37

R2: 139.88

R1: 139.43

Current spot: 139.18

S1: 138.75

S2: 138.12

S3: 137.36

Technical summary:

The decline is accelerating in wave three lower, just as we were expecting. As the next downside target for red wave iii we are looking for 137.01, but after a flat kind of consolidation more downside price action is expected.

In the short term we would like to see minor resistance at 139.43 to protect the upside, but we will have to accept the possibility of a move closer to 139.88 before the next downside pressure. However, a break above 139.88 should not be seen at any time.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 140.95 and move your stop lower to 139.95. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 139.43 with the same stop at 139.95.

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#USDX technical analysis for May 15, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains strong and makes new short-term highs. With the Dollar index near 80.30, Dollar bulls have the upper hand as the trend remains bullish and the important resistance at 80.60 is to be challenged. The Dollar index remains in up trend in the short-term. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and has broken all short-term resistance levels and is trading above 80.

The Dollar index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Important short-term support is the 80 level. If broken we should expect the Dollar index to move towards 79.70 where the Ichimoku cloud support is found. Next short-term resistance is found at 80.60-.70.

The daily chart remains bearish but bulls are challenging the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the upward sloping trend line resistance that was once support. Bulls look strong for now and I believe that the index will manage to break above the cloud (80.40) but will find resistance at 80.60 and pause the rise. A pull back should be expected from that level. Concluding, the dollar index is giving each day more signs of a trend reversal on a daily basis. This could have as a longer-term target a price near 84-85.

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Gold technical analysis for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has hit the upper triangle boundaries and has stopped its upward move as expected. No break out has been in Gold price yet. It is very possible to see the lower triangle boundaries now. Gold has short-term resistance at $1,308 and short-term support at $1,294. If support at $1,294 is broken we should expect Gold price to move towards the lower triangle boundaries at $1,284.

Gold price still is above the Ichimoku cloud. But the cloud is very thin and this means that Gold price is trading in a tight range. Investors could choose to trade in favor of the triangle or wait for a breakout. This means that either investors sell near the upper triangle resistance or buy near the lower triangle boundaries, or wait for a break out.

Gold price is still expected to move towards the 50%-61.8% retracement, but we see no buying power as the weakness in EURUSD is affecting Gold price negatively. If EURUSD were to rise again above 1.3770 we could expect Gold to move above strong resistance at $1,315. Otherwise, if Dollar continues to strengthen, we could see support at $1,270 break. Long-term view remains bearish, however we should respect price action before taking any position. As long as price is below $1,315 I favor short positions targeting $1,294 and $1,285. If support at $!,275 is broken we should see more selling pressures.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold rallied yesterday only to face resistance around $1,304.00 levels as seen here. The metal is consolidating again in a cone format between decreasing resistance and increasing support lines as seen here. A break out of this consolidation is required to decide further direction, recommendations for now is to exit long positions and remain flat.

2. Support is seen at $1,270.00/80.00 levels, followed by $1,230.00/40.00, $1,210.00 and lower while resistance is at $1,330.00, followed by $1,350.00/60.00, $1,388.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold still remains in a trading range and breakout is required below $1,280.00 or above $1,310.00 to determine further direction.

Trading recommendations:

Exit longs. Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for May 15, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF finally reverses from sub 1.5000 levels as expected and has produced a bearish evening star reversal candlestick trade signal as seen here. Intraday rallies through 1.4960/70 levels could be sold from here on. Recommendations are to remain short and also look to add on rallies, risk remains above 1.5040 for now. Minimum expectations for the pair is to dip towards 1.4700/1.4680 levels from here.

2. Support is seen at 1.4780, followed by 1.4630, 1.4550/1.4450 and lower, while resistance is at 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF is ready to accelerate downside after confirm a bearish signal yesterday. 1.4950/70 is intraday resistance now and rallies should be capped there.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop at 1.5040, target is at 1.4700.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 15, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 15/05/2014 08:00 CET

The anticipated level of 139.25 has been missed by mere 20 pips and so far it looks like the main impulsive wave progression has been completed and the corrective cycle is due. The first resistance is the level of 139.88 and any breakout higher means that the 61%Fibo at the level of 140.37 will be possibly tested. The bullish divergence at the momentum oscillator supports this point of view. This is only a short-term corrective cycle and the long-term bias remains bearish.

Support/Resistance:

139.25 - Technical Support

139.45 - Intraday Support

139.88 - Intraday Resistance

140.37 - 61%Fibo

140.61 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should open buy stop positions if the level of 139.90 is broken with SL below the level of 139.44 and TP at the level of 140.37.

Swing traders should still keep the running short positions as lower prices are still expected.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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