Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 21 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5903

R2: 1.5878

R1: 1.5838

Current spot: 1.5809

S1: 1.5772

S2: 1.5735

S3: 1.5680

Technical summary:

The decline from 1.6041 has been much stronger and deeper than expected. This is worrisome, but we have to remember, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but they can not break the origin of the first wave by even a single pip as that will invalidate the bullish count. So, the origin of blue wave i at 1.5680 needs to protect the downside or the above count is invalidated calling for a 1.5709, but not below 1.5526 (wave ii of the expanded diagonal).

Trading recommendation:

We will await signs of a bottom before engaging to this market.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 21 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 147.46

R2: 147.20

R1: 146.75

Current spot: 146.53

S1: 146.33

S2: 145.74

S3: 145.42

Technical summary:

The decline from 149.13 does look too strong to be just a small correction wave four calling for the next rally higher. So, with that in mind, we have placed wave v and (i) at 149.13 and is now looking for a correction in wave (ii) towards 142.06. Short term, we would like to see resistance at 147.45 protecting the upside for a break below support at 145.74 and more importantly a break below support at 144.78 confirming that wave (i) did end at 149.13 and the correction to 142.06 is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We have seen some wild swings here lately and will stand aside for now, till we have more confirmation whether the correction has begun or not.

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#USDX Technical analysis for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index continues to trade inside the trading range despite the bullish remarks by Mario Draghi in his earlier speech. The Dollar is trying to make an upward break out but for now it still trades below resistance. I remain neutral as long as we do not see a break out. Probably today will be the day of the break out above or below the critical levels.

Black line=support

Red line=resistance

The Dollar index is still inside the trading range. The cloud has become very thin and this implies that soon we will see a break out. So, we need to be patient and wait to see which direction the new trend will follow. The Dollar index has resistance at 88.15 and support at 87.15.

The bullish flag within the bullish flag is a very bullish sign that supports bulls and the target of 91. Bulls continue to have the upper hand as the ichimoku indicators remain in their favor. The trend is bullish as long as price remains above 87.15. I give more chances for the bullish scenario as the longer-term trend remains strongly upwards.

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Gold Technical analysis for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price remains below important resistance level of $1,207 and is consolidating near its highs within a sideways trading range. The upward move from $1,130 is considered a corrective counter trend move relative to the decline from $1,255. I expect a downtrend to resume soon.

Red line=resistance

Blue line=support

Gold price as shown in the chart above trade within the trading range of $1,174 and $1,204. The trend is neutral as long as price is inside this range. Breaking the blue trend line support will give me a sell signal that will push Gold price towards $1,145 low. Breaking above $1,204 will give me a buy signal with $1,215-$1,223 target.

Black line=support

Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud. It is consolidating near the highs of this upward move and near the 61.8% retracement resistance. This is the most probable level to see a trend reversal to the downside. Once Gold price breaks $1,175 support, we should expect the cloud support and the black trend line to be tested. My longer-term view remains bearish targeting $1,050.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommendations :

• The resistance of the GBP/USD pair is going to set at the level of 1.5735. The pair will go down in all probability cause the downward trend is still powerful on the H4 chart. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.5735 level with the targets at 1.5642 and 1.5526 (the weekly support 1). On the contrary, the support has already set at 1.5526. Furthermore, it should be noted that it will quite profitable to buy above this level for retesting this level for a short period. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the 1.5526 level during the correction with the target of 1.5568. So, the GBP/USD pair will move between the levels of 1.5530 and 1.5690 today.
  

Observations :

• We expect a new range about 210 pips this week.


• The key level will set at the level of 1.5660.


• If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from the pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news to influence, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The resistance is set at the level of 1.2582 and the double top was placed at 1.2599 on November 21, 2014. Consequently, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to turn to the bearish sentiment from the level of 1.2582. Accordingly, it will a good sign to sell in this area with the first target of 1.2488 to test a minor support at this price which represents the weekly pivot point today. Also, if the trend can break the weekly pivot point, it will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.2430 because the support will set at the 1.2430 level. At the same time, the stop loss should be placed above 1.2599 at the price of 1.2530.
  

Trading recommendations :

• According to previous events, the EUR/USD pair is trapped between 1.2550 and 1.2419 .


• The resistance will be formed at the level of 1.2582 providing a clear signal for sell deals with the targets seen at 1.2488 and 1.2430.


• Stop-loss is to be placed above 1.2630.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a seven-year high 118.98 on Thursday. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment on Bank of Japan's large-scale easing policy and positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 2.72% to 13.58; S&P 500 rose 0.20% to post record-high close of 2,052.75 overnight) after surprise surge in Philadelphia Fed business index to 40.8 in November--the highest since December 1993--from 20.7 in October (versus forecast for drop to 18.0), unexpected 1.5% increase in U.S. October existing home sales (versus forecast for 0.1% decrease), stronger-than-expected 0.9% rise in Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index to 105.2 in October (versus forecast +0.6%). USD/JPY also supported by demand from Japan's importers. But the USD sentiment is tempered by the more-than-expected 291,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 15 (versus forecast 283,000), weaker-than-expected Markit flash U.S. November manufacturing PMI of 54.7, the lowest in 10 months (versus forecast 56.0). USD/JPY upside is limited by Japan's export sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.338% versus 2.357% late Wednesday) despite U.S. October CPI coming in unchanged (versus forecast -0.1%); profit-taking on short-yen positions ahead of the long weekend in Japan (financial markets in Japan are shut Monday for a public holiday). Data focus: 1600 GMT U.S. November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index.

Technical comment:

Daily chart still is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.40 and the second target at 119. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 116.35. The pivot point is at 117.40.

Resistance levels:

118.40

119

119.70

Support levels:

116.75

116.35

116.05

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias. It is supported by the consequence from weaker euro sentiment on the Swiss franc and ultra-loose Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. USD sentiment tempered by more-than-expected 291,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 15 (versus forecast 283,000), weaker-than-expected Markit flash U.S. November manufacturing PMI of 54.7, the lowest in 10 months (versus forecast 56.0). But USD/CHF upside is limited by the positions adjustment ahead of weekend.

Technical comments:

Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9555. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9555. The pivot point stands at 0.9605. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9625 and the second target at 0.9655.

Resistance levels:

0.9625

0.9655

0.9690



Support levels:
0.9555

0.9515

0.9785

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the positive investor risk appetite, Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross andNZD-USD interest differential. USD sentiment is tempered by more-than-expected 291,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 15 (versus forecast 283,000), weaker-than-expected Markit flash U.S. November manufacturing PMI of 54.7, the lowest in 10 months (versus forecast 56.0). But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the weak dairy prices and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Data focus:
0200 GMT New Zealand October credit card statistics.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish near overbought levels but MACD is in bullish mode, bullish hammer candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7920 and the second target at 0.7965. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7820. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7790. The pivot point is at 0.7850.

Resistance levels:

0.7920

0.7965

0.8005

Support levels:

0.7820

0.7790

0.7750

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. Sterling sentiment boosted by stronger-than-expected 0.8% on-month and 4.3% on-year increase in U.K. October retail sales (versus forecast +0.3% on-month, +3.8% on-year). It is supported by the soft yen sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY upside is limited by Japan's export sales, weaker euro sentiment after disappointing Markit flash eurozone November PMIs and profit-taking on short-yen positions ahead of a long weekend in Japan.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing but bearish shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 186.15 and the second target at 187. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 182.80. The pivot point is at 184.15.

Resistance levels:

186.15

187

187.75

Support levels:

183.35

182.80

182.35

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Proceeding from the today's H4 chart, the pair is still trading between the Support level of 184.40 and the Resistance level of 186.00. Currently, the pair fails again to break the Resistance level. If the pair breaks it to take an upward movement, it might continue its bullish trend and we will get a good opportunity to buy again above the Resistance level of 186.00 till closing 4H above the Resistance level of 186.60 as a target level. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the upward move and open the way towards the Resistance level of 187.00. On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the Resistance level of 186.00 and bounces from it, it may take a downward trend, which would enable the Support level of 184,40 again. Therefore, we suggest waiting for the next closing before making a decision.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (187.00) R2 (186.60) R1 (186.00), S1 (184.40), S2 (183.30), S3 (181.00).

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Daily analysis of Silver for November 21, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

In today's H4 chart, the metal is still trading between the support level of 16.00 and below the resistance level of 16.50. After its failure to break the resistance level yesterday and the bounce from it, it took a slight downward move. Currently, it is retesting the support level of 16.00 again. At present, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 16.50 in case of bouncing from the support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 16.75, then after breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 17.00, which means more bullish signals.

Resistance and support levels: R3(17.00), R2(16.75), R1(16.50), S1(16.00), S2(15.70), S3(15.40)

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