Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which has been providing the GBP/USD pair with evident resistance.

A previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

However, recent weekly candlestick came as bearish engulfing one, closing below the level of 1.5450 (Head and Shoulders neckline).

It supports the bearish side of the market in the long term. For the reversal pattern, an approximate projection target should be located at the level of 1.5050.

In the short term, the nearest demand level to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.5170 (recent weekly bottom and the origin of a previous bullish engulfing weekly candlestick).

Weekly persistence below the price zone of 1.5170 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline to occur. On the other hand, persistence above it hinders the current bearish momentum.

Prominent supply/resistance around the level of 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where the right shoulder of the depicted bearish reversal pattern is observed.

That is why, a valid sell entry was suggested for retesting at 1.5770 one month ago. All of its targets were successfully achieved.

Moreover, the previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (prominent demand level), which prevented further bearish decline.

Instead of it, Evident bullish rejection took place (bullish engulfing daily candlesticks) leading to a recent bullish pullback towards 1.5560, which provided the current extensive bearish rejection.

Price actions should be watched around the current levels near 1.5150 as it corresponds to the previous prominent weekly bottom.

On the other hand, daily fixation below 1.5150 is needed to allow a quick bearish movement to occur towards the level of 1.4970 (Weekly Demand Level).

Trade Recommendation:

A valid sell entry was suggested around the zone of 1.5550-1.5580 (recent resistance zone). It is already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.5250 to secure our profits.

On the other hand, a low-risk buy entry can be offered around the weekly demand level at 1.4970. S/L should be placed below 1.4930.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The pair moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection which exists around the price level of 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 can take place only if the monthly high at 1.1465 gets breached.

It can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above a weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of the current month (low probability).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Continuous bullish pressure has been applied until significant bearish resistance was expressed around the levels of 1.1480 and 1.1700.

The market looked overbought as bulls were pushing the price further beyond the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Hence, bearish movement took place towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which has been providing evident bullish rejections for a few successive times (note the recent daily candlesticks including today's candlestick).

On the other hand, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 (achieved) and 1.1050 (yet to come).

Daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is mandatory to expose the next demand level around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders should wait for more bearish pullback towards the zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line) for a low-risk BUY entry.

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Technical analysis of Silver for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Trading outlook and chart setups:

Silver has bounced off $14.40 levels today and is again trading around fibonacci support at 0.618 ($14.50/55 levels). Please note that the metal has held its support well and is expected to push higher above $15.60. It is hence recommended to hold long positions with risk around $14.00. Immediate support is seen at $14.25 followed by $14.00, $13.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $15.60 followed by $16.40/50 and higher. Only a breakout below $14.00 would be in favor of bears.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $14.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold has dropped to the $1,105.00 levels today before bouncing back. Please note that the metal has tested an interim trend-line support and bounced higher. The metal started producing a bullish morning star candlestick pattern on the H4 chart . It is still recommended to hold long positions from the $1,120.00 levels with risk around the $1,100.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at the $1,100.00 levels followed by $1,090.00, $1,075.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $1,155.00 levels (interim) followed by $1,170.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at $1,095.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair seems to have reached a higher low at 133.50 yesterday and pulled back higher. The pair is trading around 134.15/19 at the moment and indicators (RSI and MACD) point to a continued rally through 138.00/139.00 at least. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at 132.00. Immediate support is seen at 133.00 (interim) followed by 132.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 135.00 (interim) followed by 137.00, 138.00/139.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 132.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 02/10/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 02/10/2015:

The Construction PMI report revealed another peak to 59.9 in September, up from 57.3 in August in all three fields of activity: residential, commercial and civil engineering. The leading field of construction is currently the residential building that raises fastest in last 12 months. Moreover, greater workloads and positive sentiment towards the business outlook contributed to a sharp increase in staffing levels during September. This strong data will definitely catch the attention of Mark Carney from Bank of England and re-assure his point of view to raise the interest-rates by the end of 2015.

Technical picture hasn't changed much as the GBP/USD pair is still testing the resistance level at 1.5171. A lack of a corrective bounce above this level would mean another test at 1.5000 would be around the corner.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is still testing a back side of the trend line (which is resistance now), around the levels of 1.4850. Also note that its 50-day moving average resistance is also being tested. A bearish signal here would indicate a drop below 1.4600. It is hence recommended to exit long positions and remain flat for now. Immediate support is seen at 1.4600 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.4900 followed by 1.5100, 1.5350, 1.5400/10, and higher. A push above 1.4900 would enable further confidence in a bullish set-up.

Trading recommendations :

Exit long positions and remain flat.

Good luck!

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.7419. In the daily time frame, we can observe a reversal up-thrust (bullish bar). The intraday trend is downward. According to the M15 chart, we can observe weak demand around the price of 1.7415. The today point of control is at the price of 1.7465. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.7435, Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of 1.7450 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.7465. Anyway, major daily support at the price of 1.7265 is on the test (daily swing lows). Watch for a potential breakout of that support to confirm further downward movement.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7515

R2: 1.7565

R3: 1.7650

Support levels:

S1: 1.7350

S2: 1.7300

S3: 1.7215

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for October 02 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,105.93. The intraday trend is downward, so watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. In the M15 time frame, we can observe a peak volume at the level of $1,111.75 (the today point of control). Besides,there is a lack of demand at the level of $1,111.75 (no-demand bar) and we can observe that activity caused the price to continue with downward movement. According to the daily price action, support level is seen at $1,102.00-$1,198.48.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,117.70

R2: 1,119.00

R3: 1,121.20

Support levels:

S1: 1,113.35

S2: 1,112.00

S3: 1,110.00

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

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Global macro overview for 02/10/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 02/10/2015:

Yesterday, the ADP data reported a gain of 200,000 new jobs and it was a third month in a row with such strong employment figures. The US Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 12:30 am GMT today and the market expects a solid gain of 202,000 jobs. Due to missed deadlines for summer months, the revisions for August are expected to be higher as well. This data release will be closely watched by all market participants, including data depended Fed members.

The US dollar index is trading just in the middle of the trading zone and any number in line or better than expected will possibly produce pressure for market participants to test the recent daily resistance at the level of 98.32.

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USDX technical analysis for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

There is nothing new regarding the US dollar index as the market awaits the announcement of the Non-Farm Payrolls today. This piece of information will play a vital role for the direction the market will take from now on. The price remains above the short-term Ichimoku cloud, but also below previous highs resistance.

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The US dollar index has formed a triangle pattern and we are currently below the upper boundary resistance at 96.60. With the NFP announcement today, it is advised to stay neutral until we have a clear signal. Will it be a breakout or a rejection, we do not know yet. But the safest way to trade it is to wait until the dust settles.

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The weekly chart has nothing new for us. The price remains trapped inside the trading range of the bullish flag. We remain neutral waiting for a signal. Weekly resistance is at 97.50 and support is at 95.

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Gold wave analysis for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The gold price has made a new lower low today early at the European session, but it still holds above $1,100. The price has extended much more than I initially expected, but the wave count is still valid. Moreover, the price remains inside the big triangle pattern so a bounce towards at least $1,140 is still in play.

Green lines - triangle pattern

Black lines - bearish channel

The gold price is testing the lower triangle boundary. The price has broken below the Ichimoku cloud and it is a bearish sign. A bounce from current levels is very possible and we could reach the Ichimoku cloud and test it from below. It gives a short-term target of $1,140. Confirmation of a bullish reversal will come once the price breaks above the black downward sloping channel at $1,114.

The weekly tenkan-sen support at $1,120 was broken. The price is testing the lower triangle boundary. Support is critical here and combined with the announcement of the NFP numbers today. We could expect volatility to rise and this candle to close above the tenkan-sen. Bulls are still alive and bears need to be cautious as we remain inside the triangle.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 2 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

A breake below the support at 1.7466 calls for more corrective declines closer to 1.6781. In the short term, we expect that the resistance at 1.7523 will be able to protect the upside for the next decline towards 1.7146 on the way lower to 1.6781.

Trading Recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7480 with a stop placed at 1.7580. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 1.7410 with a stop at 1.7525.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 119.55.Overnight, US stocks were little changed as investors exercised caution at the start of the fourth quarter and before Friday's payrolls report. The DJIA slipped 0.1% to 16,272, the S&P 500 added 0.2% to 1,923, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2% to 4,627. Nymex crude oil settled down 0.8% at $44.74 a barrel, while gold slid 0.1% to $1,113 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.042% from 2.061% in the previous session. Speaking of economic data in the US, initial jobless claims were at 277,000 for the week ended on September 25 (vs. plus 271,000 expected, plus 267,000 in the prior week). The ISM Manufacturing PMI was at 50.2 in September (vs. 50.6 expected, 51.1 in August). The US dollar weakened against most other major currencies. The pair keeps testing and bouncing from the key support at 119.55. Currently, it is trading on the upside while being supported by the 20-period intraday moving average. The intraday relative strength indicator manages to stay above the neutral level at 50. As long as 119.55 holds as the key support, the pair is expected to rise towards the first upside target at 120.35 (the high of September 30).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.35 and the second target at 120.65. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.20 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.00. The pivot point is at 119.55.

Resistance levels: 120.35 120.65 121

Support levels: 119.20 119.00 118.70

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias. After the recent strong rebound, the pair is turning upwards and is likely to challenge its nearest resistance at 0.9790. The immediate trend is upward, but the momentum seems to be weak. Nevertheless, a strong support around 0.9720 should prevent any downward attempts. Even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited before a new rise to 0.9810 and 0.9845 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9790 and the second target at 0.9820. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9695 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9665. The pivot point is at 0.9720.

Resistance levels: 0.9810 0.9845 0.99

Support levels: 0.9695 0.9665 0.9640

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 2 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

We continue to look for a final decline closer to 131.45 before a firm bottom to be in place for a new impulsive rally back to 141.03 and higher.

In the short term, we expect minor resistance at 134.43 will be able to protect the upside for the next downside attack and a break below support at 133.14 for the move closer to 131.45.

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR near 131.45 or upon a break above 135.10 (one order done cancels the other).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.6380. Technically, the pair still holds above its key support base around 0.6380, and seems to be likely to post some consolidations before a further advance. The technical indicator such as the intraday RSI is losing upward momentum, but is still mixed to bullish. As long as 0.6380 is not broken, any consolidations should be limited before new bounces to 0.6445 (October 1 top) and 0.6485.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6445 and the second target at 0.6485. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6350 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6320. The pivot point is at 0.6380.

Resistance levels: 0.6445 0.6485 0.6525

Support levels: 0.6350 0.6320 0.6285

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 02, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair keeps challenging the key resistance at 182.25 while intraday technical indicators are mixed. As long as this key resistance isn't broken, the pair is likely to return to the next support at 180.80. A break below this level would call for a further drop toward 180.30.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 180.80. A breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 180.30. The pivot point stands at 182.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 182.75 and the second target at 183.30.

Resistance levels: 182.75 183.30 184

Support levels: 180.80 180.30 179.60

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: It is better for position traders to stay away from this market. The market is good for short-term swing traders, since the price is currently swinging within the resistance region around 1.1300 and the support line at 1.1100, all in the context of a downtrend. A rise is expected today or next week.

USD/CHF: In spite of what has happened so far this week, like low volatility and slow movement, the USD/CHF pair remains in a bullish market. With further bullish journey, the price is expected to test the resistance level at 0.9850, after breaking the resistance level at 0.9800 to the upside.

GBP/USD: This pair has been consolidating to the downside since Monday, though the bearish bias is clearly visible. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is staying below the level of 50. It is very much likely that the price would continue moving southwards when there is a break out of this consolidating market (in the context of a downtrend).

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has not performed any strong directional movement this week (and for most of September 2015). This is a sideways market; but there is a high probability that a strong breakout would happen today or next week, which would take the price above the supply level at 121.00 or below the demand level at 119.00.

EUR/JPY: Although the EUR/JPY cross currently looks choppy, the outlook for the market is bearish. This week, the demand zone at 133.50 has been tested and it could be tested again. In case the demand zone is breached to the downside, the next target would be the demand zone at 133.00. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 02/10/2015 07:20 CET

An alternative scenario for the higher time frame still shows a possibility of one more big wave upward to complete the wave C blue. This scenario is currently being followed in the lower time frames on a daily basis. Due to the fact that the market is currently in the wave B blue cycle ( it might had been completed tough), the overall wave progression might evolve to more complex and time consuming pattern, for example a triangle one. As we could see all the week, the lower time frames do not indicate any kind of the impulsive wave development to the upside yet, so the idea of the more complex wave B blue is still possible.

Support/Resistance:

133.40 - WS1

133.42 - Intraday Support

134.41 - Intraday Resistance

134.77 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders from yesterday has hit the tight SL as the breakout above the resistance was a false one. Please notice today is NFP Friday and high volatility is expected around 12:30 pm GMT, so caution in trading is advised.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 2, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 02/10/2015 07:00 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the market made another sub-wave down, and the current structure looks completed. The bigger abc green structure looks completed as well, but is still not confirmed and might evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern. Please notice that any breakout below the level of 1.3010 will invalidate the bullish green count.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3208 - WS1

1.3217 - Intraday Support

1.3271 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3312 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

The sell orders from yesterday has hit the TP and currently traders should refrain from opening any more traders.

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