#USDX Analysis for September 20, 2013 Trend News

Dollar is still in downtrend but making a small upward bounce as expected by our last analysis to test the upper boundaries of the downward sloping channel. Trend remains down and it will be very difficult for the bulls to manage and reverse this trend after the sharp spike down after Bernanke's comments last Wednesday.

The prices could continue their upward correction towards the 80.65-70 price level. Trend remains down and it is very possible to see a new lower low towards 79.80-70. The bulls will not only have to break above 80.70-80 channel resistance but will need to overcome 81.45 in order for the short-term trend to reverse upwards.

On the daily chart things are rather unpleasant for the long-term trend. Unless the prices manage to move back above 81.10-20 early next week, chances of seeing 82.50-70 anytime soon will be very slim. The longer it takes to reverse, the less possible it is for this downward move to be fake break down. Concluding, we remain neutral as no good risk/reward opportunity is found.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 20, 2013 Trend News

As mentioned in yesterday's analysis Gold has most probably finished its upward move from 1,291 and is now making a reversal. Prices are expected to fall towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement if not towards the 61.8% retracement. We are bearish with the first target 1,346 and second at 1,328.

The prices are heading lower and support is found at 1,320-10 level. If this price level is broken then we could expect the low at 1,291 to be tested. If that low is broken then we should see prices challenge the 1,272 low with increased possibility to break it. The prices have now back tested the broken upward sloping blue trend line. If support at 1,300-1,290 is not broken, then the bulls will most probably have another chance to test 1,400 resistance.

Concluding we are short-term bearish from 1,365-70 with 1,376 stop and target 1,346 and 1,328. The form of the decline from recent high will determine how far we fall and if there is a chance of making a new lower low, than 1,291. We need to give the price more time to unfold and give us more information whether this downward move is corrective or impulsive.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 20, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6193

Current Spot: 1.6161

S1: 1.6111

S2: 1.6073

S3: 1.6011

Technical summary:

As long as resistance at 1.6263 and, more importantly, as long as important short-term resistance at 1.6348 protects the upside we should be expecting a move lower towards 1.6011, as the next downside target. Over the last 10 days we have seen a massive bullish divergence building, which is a warning, that the wave C decline of this expanded flat correction is losing momentum almost by the minute. However, to confirm this loss we need a break above 1.6263 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6348. A break above the later will confirm a new rally higher towards 1.7273 and even higher in the long term.

Trading recommendation:

Wait till the market confirms that wave C is over before buying EUR. Buy only a break above 1.6348, therefore place a buy order at 1.6350.

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