Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.82 versus 85.75 early Thursday) after four-week moving average for U.S. jobless claims fell 3,000 to 281,000 in week ended October 18, its lowest level since May 2000. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.277% versus 2.230% late Wednesday) and demand from Japan's importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 7.5% to 16.53) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 1.23% at 1,950.82). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from the oversold zone, negative MACD histogram bars are contracting, bullish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Thursday, five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.45 and the second target at 108.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.05. The pivot point is at 107.65.

Resistance levels:

108.45

108.75

109

Support levels:

107.35

107.05

106.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 24, 20142 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a six-day high 0.9559 on Thursday. It is supported by the positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.82 versus 85.75 early Thursday) after four-week moving average for U.S. jobless claims fell 3,000 to 281,000 on week ended October 18, its lowest level since May 2000. Dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy is taken into account as well. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is rising from the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9560 and the second target at 0.9590. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9465. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9435. The pivot point is at 0.9500.

Resistance levels:

0.9560

0.9590

0.9625



Support levels:

0.9465

0.9435

0.9390

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the wider-than-expected New Zealand September trade deficit of NZ$1.35 billion (versus forecast NZ$675 million deficit), positive USD sentiment and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential, Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk sentiment and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is falling from overbought.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7805. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7775. The pivot point stands at 0.7885. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7915 and the second target at 0.7885.

Resistance levels:

0.7915

0.7955

0.7985



Support levels:

0.7805

0.7775

0.7735

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 24 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the improved GBP sentiment and demand from Japan's importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is tilting positive as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, MACD and stochastics are turning bullish.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.15 and the second target at 174.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 172.55. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171.75 The pivot point is at 172.90.

Resistance levels:

174.15

174.95

175.65

Support levels:

172.55

171.75

171

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

The 4H chart demonstrates that silver is going to take an upward move after its rebound from the Support level at 17.00 and currently is approaching the Resistance level of 17.30 trying to break it through to continue its bullish move. More buy signals would be provided in case of closing the 4H above this Resistance level with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 17.50. Then we should wait for closing above this Resistance level too to get more bullish signals. Therefore, presently, we recommend waiting for breaking the Resistance level of 17.30 before making the decision. But as long as the price is trading below the Resistance level this cancels the first scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (17.75), R2 (17.50), R1 (17.30), S1 (17.00), S2 (16.75), S3(16.50)

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Last week, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold before the bullish momentum could get it back inside the channel.

The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) once provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles.

The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) was being targeted this week. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840.

This allowed a bearish breakout off the current bullish channel to take place. This probably confirms a Flag continuation pattern. Initial daily target level would be located around 1.2490.

A valid BUY position was previously suggested around the neckline of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern (price level of 1.2660).

On Wednesday, the market expressed quite strong bearish momentum that pushed below the lower limit of the channel.

Bears have successfully pushed towards price zone of 1.2600-1.2620 ( projection target of the double-top pattern ). As anticipated, around this price zone, bullish recovery was expressed.

Recommendation:

A valid SELL entry may be anticipated around 1.2730 at retesting which should be happening soon. Stop Loss should be set at 1.2780.

Price level of 1.2730 corresponds to the backside of the broken channel as well as the upper limit of the newly established channel depicted on the chart.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

A Shooting Star daily candlestick occurred previously around 61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels. A valid SELL position was suggested then and it got triggered few days later.

Recently, bullish rejection was expressed when the market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060 on September 9. However, another bearish leg was expressed below 1.6060 during the current month.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 constituted a prominent SUPPLY zone where considerable bearish pressure was applied on the pair last week on Thursday.

On Wednesday, bullish recovery was expressed off 1.5880. Bullish engulfing daily candlestick is depicted on the chart. Bullish targets were located around the price zone of 1.6130-1.6180 ( already reached ).

Bullish breakout off the depicted bearish channel is apparent on the daily chart. A bullish corrective move towards 1.6300 may occur as long as the bulls keep moving above the upper limit of the channel.

Breakout above 1.6140 is essential to confirm this suggested position. Otherwise, the pair remains under bearish pressure to revisit 1.5880 at least.

4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.

A SELL entry was suggested around the price level of 1.6140 last week. The resulting bearish swing managed to push below 1.5950 (weekly DEMAND level).

This week, bulls managed to push beyond the upper limit of the channel as well as previous broken bottom (probably now acting as resistance).

The GBP/USD pair remains trapped between the backside of the channel (1.6020) and price level of 1.6140.

Breakout in either direction is necessary to take a position in the same direction of breakout.

Until then, risky traders can take a BUY entry around 1.6010-1.6020. Stop Loss should be located below 1.5980.

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6198 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). Price was rejected from the level of 1.5910 (swing high like support), which pushed the price to start upward movement. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe strong demand in the background, which is a sign that we may see bullish continuation phase on this pair and EUR/NZD looks risky for selling. Pirce may go to visit the level of 1.6240 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we may see futher upward movement. Anyway, I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6090 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6015. Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6202

R2: 1.6263

R3: 1.6361

Support levels:

S1: 1.6007

S2: 1.5946

S3: 1.5849

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since our resistance level got broken.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The GBP/USD pair is still moving between 1.6025 and 1.6122. So, we expect a large range about 97 pips in the future. The breakout seen at the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement level (the triple top in H1 chart) for the key level is set at the level of 1.6199 because it represents strong resistance and it coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and another strong resistance is set at the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around the spot of 1.6122. As it is known, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below 1.6122 with the first target of 1.6020. It will call for a downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.5983 in coming hours. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be placed above the triple top at the price of 1.6200. However, check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.

Review:

• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reaches resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.


• The support of GBP/USD pair is projected at the level of 1.5980 today.


• The value of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 1.6122.


• Volatility:181,72 As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The price of EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2630 and 1.2770. The level of 1.2605 is going to form the double bottom in H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the market was very stable and trend was also quite clear (upward) this week. So, we expect a bullish market today from the area of 1.2603/1.2630. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2603/1.2630 (these levels are representing the weekly supports) with the first target of 1.2682, it might resume to 1.2750 in coming hours in order to test the weekly resistance one. However, the stop loss should be always be taken into account. Therefore, it will be very useful to set your stop loss at the price of 1.2665 (blow the supports).
  

Observations:

• If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


• Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. So, your stop loss should be around 45 pips for each position.


• Major support will set at 1.2575.


• Major resistance has already placed at 1.2770.


• We expect a new range about 78 pips this today.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 24/10/2014 10:50 CET

Not much has changed since yesterday as the market is currently in sub-cycle corrective mode and only a clear, sustained breakout below the level of 1.1183 would invalidate the bullish outlook for this pair. The key level resistance still has not been violated and the market is trading inside the golden corrective channel: very overlapping and choppy price action might indicate even more complex corrective cycle in purple wave 2 , but currently there is not much proof of that.

Support/Resistance:

1.1381 - Swing High

1.1292 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|

1.1281 - Weekly Pivot

1.1262 - Intraday Resistance

1.1183 - Intraday Support

1.1178 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Please refrain from trading until either the level of 1.1292 or 1.1183 is broken. Bias is still bullish anyway.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 24/10/2014 10:40 CET

After an impulsive breakout above the golden channel yesterday the pair is consolidating gains and more upside is being anticipated as it looks like wave -iii- blue might be developing here. The key level to the upside is still the intraday resistance at the level of 137.00 and as long as the intraday supports at the levels of 136.50 and 136.26 will provide the opportunity to buy, more upside is being anticipated here. Moreover, a break above the level of 137.00 is bullish and the level of 137.87 will be tested sooner or later anyway.

Support/Resistance:

137.86 - WR1

137.77 - 137.94 - Supply Zone

136.99 - Intraday Resistance

136.50 - Intraday Support

136.25 - Intraday Support|Key Level|

135.99 - Weekly Pivot

135.27 - WS1

134.11 - Swing Low

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy stop orders from the level of 137.02 with SL below the level of 136.49 and TP at the level of 137.86. Swing traders should put SL below the level of 135.27 and wait for further impulsive wave progression to the upside.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 24 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6243

R2: 1.6216

R1: 1.6168

Current spot: 1.6163

S1: 1.6118

S2: 1.6092

S3: 1.6057

Technical summary:

We have seen a nice impulsive rally to 1.6216, but we still have not seen the break above important resistance at 1.6243, which keeps the expanding diagonal alive. That said, we do favor the scenario, where red wave (ii) ended at 1.5903 and red wave (iii) higher to 1.6800 is developing. Short term, we will be looking for a minor correction towards 1.6057 before the next impulsive rally higher to 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6800. Only a break below 1.5903 will shift the preferred count to the expanding diagonal.

Trading recommendation:

Our profit target at 1.6160 was hit for a nice profit. We will re-buy EUR at 1.6065 or upon a break above 1.6169 with stop place at 1.6000 is both cases.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 24 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.82

R2: 137.50

R1: 137.01

Current spot: 136.78

S1: 136.70

S2: 136.52

S3: 136.29

Technical summary:

It is still not clear, whether wave B ended at 137.01 or wave B still needs a little more upside towards the 137.82 - 137.94 area to finish wave B. We slightly prefer the scenario, where wave B ended at 137.01, but to confirm that, we will need a break below minor support at 136.52 and more importantly a break below support at 136.04, that would call for a new decline to 134.14 on the way lower to 133.40 in wave iii. Only a direct break above 137.01 will tell us, that wave c of B still needs to rally to 137.82 before wave B is over and wave C will be ready to take over.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 135.76, with stop placed at 137.10. If the stop is hit, we will re-sell EUR at 137.70.

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#USDX Wave analysis for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index remains close to its short-term resistance of 86.20 and as long as it does not break above it, we should be very cautious as the downward correction could unfold into a more complex corrective pattern as labeled in todays post. This alternative scenario could bring the Dollar index towards 84 in order to complete the correction from the highs.

Black line= former resistance

Althought the black trend line was broken upwards and price moved above the Ichimoku cloud, I do not see the strength I would expect in order to be more sure that we have seen the end of the correction from 86.70. The Dollar index could be at the final stages of a wave X of a double zig zag formation. If the correction is not over, I expect to see a final push lower towards 84 to complete the correction.

In the daily chart, the Dollar index is breaking out of the bullish flag that gives me target of 90. Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and all ichimoku cloud indicators are bullish with a positive slope. Breaking above 86.20 resistance will confirm that an important low was placed at 84.40 and a new upward move has started. I'm longer-term bullish.

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Gold Technical analysis for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price remains in a longer-term down trend and today we take another look in the weekly chart that confirms our bearish view of one more final move lower towards $1,050. The short-term trend has reversed as price has broken the support level at $1,240 and is testing $1,230.

Gold price reversed yesterday and has pushed inside the Ichimoku cloud rendering the short-term neutral from bullish in ichimoku cloud terms. A move below the cloud will change trend to bearish. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows has been stopped with the decline towards $1,225 yesterday. Gold price has short-term support at $1,220 and resistance at $1,235.

Blue line = support

Black line= trend line resistance

In the weekly chart, we see Gold price making lower highs but the lows are on a horizontal trend line at $1,180. This is a bearish formation and if we take into account the ichimoku cloud indicators, then we should expect to see a break of the lows at $1,180 and a move towards $1,050. The Ichimoku cloud in the weekly chart has rejected Gold price and is pointing lower and that more weakness should be expected.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 24, 2014 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair is still caught in a bearish trend: the support line at 1.2600 may easily be tested. Should that support line get breached to the downside, the next target may be the support line at 1.2550.

USD/CHF: Bulls’ power in this market is now obvious. The Williams’ % range period 20 is now in the overbought territory, which means that the market is expected to go further upwards because of the strength in it, even if there would temporary pullbacks. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the price is above both of them. The resistance level at 0.9550 is under siege – another resistance level at 0.9600 may be reached if the resistance level at 0.9550 is breached to the upside.

GBP/USD: The Cable is also weak, just like its EUR/USD counterpart. The bearish journey in the market has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The bearish outlook would become particularly stronger after the accumulation territory at 1.5950 is tested.

USD/JPY: The strength in the USD has made the USD/JPY pair go seriously upwards. This has made long trades logical, and the price could test the supply level at 109.00 today or next week. In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they may have some impact on the markets.

EUR/JPY: The sudden weakness in the JPY is what is aiding the northward effort on this cross. When the price crosses the supply level at 137.50 to the upside, things would become bullish completely.

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