Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high at 102.16 on Tuesday as markets await 1230 GMT U.S. advance estimate 2Q GDP (forecast +3.0%) and 1800 GMT Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate decision: the Federal Reserve is expected to cut its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion. USD/JPY is also underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.21 versus 81.01 early Tuesday) on a surprise rise in Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index to a near-seven-year high of 90.9 in July (versus forecast for drop to 85.0) from a revised 86.4 in June (first reported as 85.2). USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers. But USD sentiments are dented by the weaker-than-expected 9.3% on-year rise in U.S. May S&P / Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index (versus +9.9% forecast). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japan exporter sales, lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields; selling of yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.73% to 13.28, S&P 500 fell 0.45% to close at 1,969.95 overnight) on increased geopolitical worries as the U.S. and EU expanded sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine. Daily chart is positive-biased as five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing,MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish; five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.25 and the second target at 102.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.45. The pivot point is at 101.75.

Resistance levels:

102.25

102.40

102.65

Support levels:

101.65

101.45

101.15

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 30, 2014 Trend News

The cable drifted to a monthly low. The US data was printed above expectations. The Consumer confidence index was printed at 90.9, from 86.4 in June. The cable has strong nearest support at 1.6862 (20WSma). After three days, the bears succeeded to close below 50DSma. The pair has weekly support at 1.6920 levels. The pair has weekly resistance at 1.6975 and 1.70 (38.2fib level).

Intra week

Support 1.6920 1.6880 1.6862

Resistance 1.6975 1.70

Intraday cmp 1.6949

The cable is trading below the hourly moving averages. It is trying to trade above the 35 HrDema in Asia's session. If a candle closes above 1.6952, it can move up to 1.6975 and 1.70 levels. We recommend to buy only above 1.70 levels. On the down side, it has support at 1.6934, 1.6920 and 1.6880 levels. The hourly RSI is indicating a minor positive divergence.

A day close above 1.6975, the near term will turn to positive.

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Intraday analysis of Gold for July 30, 2014 Trend News

GOLD

The metal was rejected at 200DEma and pushed towards 50DSma. The trading pattern is framed between $1,312-$1,294. On the down side, if the metal hits the support, it can extend its fall up to $1,292, $1,286, $1,275 and $1,270. Breaks below $1,286, then only we are able to see the lower levels. On the upside, if the metal breaches the resistance, it can fly up to $1,324, $1,330, $1,345 and $1,360 levels.

For an hourly trading, the metal is trading below the hourly moving averages. In yesterday's fall, the metal held the breakout level from the descending upper trend level. The metal has an hourly support between $1,297-$1,295.80 levels. Resistance is at $1,300.75 and $1,301.50 levels. We recommend to buy above $1,302 with targets at $1,305, $1,310, $1,312, $1,315 and $1,318. Sell below $1,292 for targets at $1,290, $1,287, $1,280 and $1,275 levels.

Until the metal trades below $1,324, the bears may control the metal to make $1,275/$1,270 levels.

Sell only below $1,292.

Safe traders can buy above $1,302.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 30, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD had a strong bearish momentum below the resistance level of 1.7000. The next target for this pair is the support level of 1.6851, which could be reached this week, due to the weakness that the GBP/USD has presented in recent days. However, be cautious when placing sell orders at current levels, as this pair may perform a rebound to the level of 1.7000. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to form a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.6995. It is very likely that this pair will fall to the support level of 1.6920 in the coming hours, because the GBP/USD remains strong in the current bearish bias below the 200 SMA. MACD is in negative territory.

H1 chart: This pair has made a breakout at the support level of 1.6950, so far, the GBP/USD is trying to form a higher low pattern. The next target for this pair is the support level of 1.6900. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6850. The MACD indicator is oversold.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6900, take profit is at 1.6850, and stop loss is at 1.6950.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Recent bottoms were established around 169.55 and 171.05 (corresponding to the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel).

These bottoms prevented further bearish decline each time the pair visited them and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.

The bulls have reached the upper limit of the depicted channel located roughly at 175.35 where bearish pressure was expressed obviously.

Since then, the GBP/JPY pair has been downtrending approaching 50% Fibonacci Level around 172.45.

The bears need to keep their 4H closure below 172.45 in order to pursue towards further bearish targets.

Note the bullish pressure being expressed at 172.60 when the bears challenged previous daily low around 172.70.

Indecisive daily closures are displayed on the DAILY chart (representing the market hesitation), so SELLERS should be conservative with their targets.

However, if the bears manage to breakdown the zone between 172.45 - 171.80, sellers should extend their targets towards 171.00 initially.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

A solid bullish structure kept pushing higher. This bullish structure was manifested in successive ascending bottoms around 1.6465, 1.6555, and 1.6665 (corresponding to the uptrend line)

Lack of bullish momentum and indecision were observed on the daily chart when the pair established a consolidation zone between 1.7050 and 1.7170.

On the other hand, the most dependable DEMAND level located around 1.7050 (the uptrend line too) was broken down exposing the price levels of 1.7000.

The price levels of 1.6910-1.6920 are the next destination of the current bearish movement provided that the bears manage to fixate below 1.6950 (prominent bottom).

As expected, the price zone between 1.7140 - 1.7170 provided evident bearish price action.

A pattern of multiple tops was confirmed after breakdown of the depicted bullish channel. Moreover, successive bearish targets were hit around 1.7055 and 1.7000.

Risky traders may keep their SELL positions up to the price level of 1.6910 where the next prominent Demand Level is located provided that the bears manage to fixate below 1.6950 (prominent bottom).

On the other hand, the price level of 1.6950 remains a significant key level as it corresponds to the previous prominent bottom established in June.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Since the USD/CAD pair failed to show enough bullish momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel, which managed to push towards the price zone between 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) where a prominent congestion zone was established.

The USD/CAD pair found solid resistance around 1.0910-1.0950 that was able to resume the ongoing bearish momentum when bearish breakout took place on the bearish side.

Bearish projection targets were visited at 1.0725 and 1.0685 respectively (the lower limit of the ongoing bearish channel).

As expected, bullish price action was expressed at retesting 1.0630 which is the origin of the previous bullish impulse initiated in December 2013.

As expected, a valid BUY entry was suggested. Expected targets got visited around 1.0750 and 1.0820.

The USD/CAD pair has a strong resistance level located around 1.0830 (61.8% Fibonacci Level). The bears may apply significant pressure there. A valid SELL position can be taken at retesting.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.0760-1.0775 remains as the nearest support to meet the pair. It's the upper limit of the recent congestion zone that got broken.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Bullish breakout above the DAILY bearish channel took place exposing the price levels around 1.6985, 1.6900, and 1.7000 as projection targets.

Bullish pressure was once applied as a trial to break through the upper limit of the 4H movement channel. However, lack of follow-through existed as bullish pressure being applied was not enough to ensure success of the bullish breakout.

On the other hand, Intraday resistance was established around 1.7150-1.7190. A short-term SELL position was suggested in the previous articles with SL located just above 1.7190.

The price levels of 1.7050 and 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, the bears had potential bearish target around 1.6970 then 1.6920 which is being approached today.

The price level of 1.6920 is the next destination in case the bears keep fixating below the price zone of 1.6980-1.7000.

Bullish rejection will probably originate off 1.6920. Thus, a valid BUY position can be taken there with Stop Loss just below 1.6880.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 29/07/2014 13:50 CET

This pair might have just finished the corrective cycle of black wave iv and it is heading upwards to complete black wave v of the overall impulsive sequence. As long as the intraday support at the level of 1.0795 provides the support, the first upside targets are at the levels of 1.0833 and 1.0868 in case of an extension. Please, notice that bearish divergence is starting to be built on the momentum oscillator. So, this supports the overall view.

Support/Resistance:

1.0960 - Swing High

1.0869 - WR1

1.0870 - 1.0892 - Demand Breakthrough Zone | Key Level |

1.0808 - 1.0827 - Intraday Supply Zone

1.0820 - Intraday Resistance

1.0789 - Weekly Pivot

1.0757 - WS1

1.0652 - Technical Support

1.0679 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy orders from the current price levels with SL blowing the level of 1.0789 and TP at the level of 1.0833 and 1.0868.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The USD/CAD pair is hanging around the past support turned to resistance levels around 1.0810/30 levels for now. The pair had broken out of the falling line of resistance earlier, so it is quite possible that the rally could continue but after a dip.

2. Support is seen at 1.0700, followed by 1.0625 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.0900/50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that USD/CAD could continue the uptrend but it needs to retrace before that.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat. Look to buy on dips.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 29/07/2014 13:30 CET

Corrective cycle of green wave (ii) is in progress as anticipated. Invalidation line for this cycle is at the level of 137.25. The price is still staying under the golden trendline level and under intraday resistance at the level of 137.33. Only a clear, sustained breakout higher above the level of 137.25 would invalidate a simple abc purple corrective scenario. In that case, the next resistance level would be at the grey rectangular technical resistance zone between the levels of 137.49 - 137.63. Nevertheless, the bias is still bearish as long as this level is not cleared.

Support/Resistance:

136.23 - WS1

136.36 - Wave 1 Low

136.62 - Intraday Support

136.78 - Weekly Pivot

136.92 - Intraday Resistance

137.25 - Invalidation Level

137.21 - WR1

137.32 - Intraday Resistance

137.50 - 137.63 - Key Level for Bears

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to open short orders from the level of 136.95, with SL above the level of 137.25 and TP at the level of 136.23 with a possible downside extension.

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Review :

• If the trend is upwards, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The timeframe should be taken into account. Fibonacci is in a range trade; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy for a long term in this period, you will surely lose your profit. It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from the pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is a significant news, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

The weekly pivot point of GBP/USD pair.

Forecast :

• According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has been moved between 1.7015 and 1.6930.


• The level of 1.9012 is representing the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels.


• Consequently, sell below 1.7015 in the short term with the first target of 1.6961 in order to test the double bottom, it might resume to 1.625 (the support 1) if the trend is able to break the double top at 1.6961.


• The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, it will be quite profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.7043.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The USD/JPY pair is trading around resistance at 102.00/10 levels for now. It is expected to carve a lower top around this region. Only a push above 102.30/40 would be bullish for the pair. Recommendations are to initiate short positions around the current levels, risk remains at 102.40.

2. Support is seen at 101.70, followed by 101.00 and 100.80, while resistance is seen at 102.30, followed by 102.70 and higher up respectively.

3. The structure indicates that USD/JPY should be headed lower till the prices remain below 102.30/40.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions now, stop at 102.50, target is open.

Good luck!

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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical levels of the EUR/USD pair:

Review :

• The double top will set at the level of 1.3548 and the double bottom is going to be set at 1.3419 level.


• So, the last range was 129 pips. We expect a range between 150 pips and 170 pips this week.


• The price hit the weekly support 1 last week only.


• The major support is going to set at 1.3380 on July 29, 2014.


• Hence, according to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.3410 and 1.3465.


• The level of 1.3465 is representing the weekly pivot point.


• Therefore, it will be very useful to sell below the price of 1.3470 in the short term with the first target at 1.3419 in order to test the double bottom. But if the trend is able to break the double bottom at 1.3419, then it might resume to 1.3390.

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Technical analysis of EUR/AUD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/AUD pair is likely to resume a larger counter trend rally after bottoming out at 0.7870/80 levels last week. A push above 0.7940/50 levels from here would confirm and accelerate the same. Recommendations are to initiate long positions, risk remains below 0.7870 for now.

2. Support is seen at 0.7875 (interim), followed by 0.7760, while resistance is seen at 0.7980, followed by 0.8030 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/AUD might be resuming at least a counter trend rally. Break above 0.7940/50 confirms it.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions now, stop at 0.7870, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The NZD/USD pair is seen to be drifting lower and is stalling around 0.8500 levels for now. As depicted here, fibonacci support is just around 0.8530/35 and a push above these levels could trigger a counter trend rally. If not, the bears could continue drifting lower towards 0.8400 levels. Aggressive trade setups would be to initiate long positions, risk remains at 0.8400 while a conservative approach is to watch for further confirmation.

2. Support is seen at 0.8400 levels, followed by 0.8350, 0.8250 and lower, while resistance is seen at 0.8710/20, followed by 0.8800/20 levels respectively.

3. The structure indicates that NZD/USD pair is into a religious downtrend which would potentially last for a few months. Watch the trend line support being broken around 0.8530/40 levels for now.

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive setup is to remain long, stop at 0.8400, target 0.8730/50.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver is still expected to correct lower towards $19.60 and sub $20.00 levels as depicted here. Please, note that $19.90 is the fibonacci 0.618 support level of the entire rally between $18.60 and $21.40/50. Recommendations are to buy on dips for now.

2. Support is seen at $20.00 (fibonacci), followed by $19.50/60, $18.60 and lower while resistance is seen at $21.40/70, followed by $22.30 and higher up respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver remains buy on dips. Levels of interest is $19.90/$20.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Look to buy towards $19.60.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5900

R2: 1.5868

R1: 1.5812

Current spot: 1.5776

S1: 1.5776

S2: 1.5745

S3: 1.5730

Technical summary:

The expected extension higher in wave iii is unfolding nicely. We are sitting just below the first extension target at 1.5812, which might be able to hold the rise back for a short term. However, looking at the structure, we expect this rally to continue higher to 1.5900 and possibly even higher to 1.6046. Short-term support at 1.5776 will likely to protect the downside, but we could see a move slightly lower to 1.5745. This support should ideally protect the downside for the next rally higher to 1.5812.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5525 and will move stop higher to 1.5695. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR here with the same stop at 1.5695.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair needs to clear above 137.40 levels to reach 138.00 and higher as shown here. A failure ahead of 137.20 levels would bring the bears back in control. The intermediate trend looks down and hence rallies should be sold.

2. Support is at 136.20/30, 134.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 137.40, followed by 138.40 and higher up respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY needs to break above at least for an interim rally towards 138.40 if not higher.

Trading recommendations:

Exit long positions. Look to sell rallies.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.25

R2: 137.11

R1: 137.00

Current spot: 137.01

S1: 136.92

S2: 136.82

S3: 136.72

Technical summary:

We are currently testing strong short-term support at 137.00, which ideally will protect the upside for a break below 136.92 and more important below support at 136.82. It confirms the next decline to the next support at 136.00, where we should see a minor flat correction unfolding before the last decline to the ideal target at 135.49 to end wave iii. If resistance at 137.00 is broken, the upside should be limited to 137.11, but the outcome is not our preferred result.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 137.20 with stop placed at 137.50. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell here at 137.00 with the same stop at 137.50.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is testing resistance zone around 1.5350/1.5375 as seen here, before giving in to bears. The pair is expected to correct lower towards 1.5200/30 levels, till the prices remain below 1.5430. Recommendations are to remain short. Risk is likely to be above 1.5430/50.

2. Support is seen at 1.5309 (interim), followed by 1.5200/10, 1.5130/50 while resistance is seen at 1.5430/50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF should continue drifting lower till the prices are below 1.5430/50.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop above 1.5450, target is open.

Good luck!

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#USDX Technical analysis for July 29, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has stalled its sharp rise and has stopped exactly at its previous highs area. Resistance is strong in this area and a pull back could be justified. Our intermediate-term target remains at 81.75. The trend remains up and the price remains inside an upward sloping channel.

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term support and first sell signal will come if the price breaks below 80.97. Support will be found then between 80.90-80.85. Breaking above 81.10 will push the index higher towards 81.30.

The daily chart continues to support bulls. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and the trend remains up with higher highs and higher lows. The daily trend changes to bearish only if the price breaks below 80.40. Our intermediate-term target is 81.75 equal to the rise from 78.95-81.

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Gold Technical analysis for July 29, 2014 Trend News

The Gold price is trying to break above the sideways consolidation it started yesterday. A short-term trend is up as the upward move from $1,287 looks incomplete. The double bottom near $1,290 may be strong enough to cancel my bearish scenario and push the price above $1,326. However, to make this happen we have a strong test today at $1,310-12.

The Gold price is now testing the 61.8% retracement and the Ichimoku cloud resistance at $1,310-12. Next resistance is at $1,316. Short-term support is found at $1,300. Breaking above $1,315 will increase the chances of breaking to new highs above $1,326 towads $1,350-60. Breaking below $1,300 will increase the chances of making a lower low below $1,287.

On a daily basis, the Gold price is supported and holds above the Ichimoku cloud. Although our preferred scenario is bearish expecting a downward move to $1,000, it is now put to the test. The Gold price has formed an important area of critical lows at $1,287-90. Bulls should feel confident as long as the price is above that area. On the other hand, bears will feel confident if this support area is broken.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As shown in today's H4 chart, the pair failed again to break the Support level of 172.60. It is still trading between the Support level and below the Resistance level of 173.30. Currently, the pair is bouncing from the Support level and starting a bullish move. So, we still suggest waiting for closing above the Resistance level of 173.30 in order to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 173.75. Then, after breaking this Resistance level, the pair would open the way towards the Resistance level of 174.40 which means more bullish signals, but as long as the metal trades below the Resistance level of 173.30, this cancels the bullish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (174.40), R2 (173.75), R1 (173.30), S1 (172.60), S2 (172.30), S3(169.90)

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From today's H4 chart we see that the metal is still trading between the support level of 20.50 and below the resistance level of 20.70. Silver failed to break the resistance level yesterday and bounced from it. It took a slightly downward move. Currently, it is retesting the support level of 20.50 again. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level of 20.70 in case it bounces from the support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target of few pips below the resistance level of 21.00. After breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the Resistance level of 21.20, which means more bullish signals.

Resistance and support levels: R3(21.00), R2 (20.70), R1 (20.50), S1 (20.20), S2 (20.00), S3 (19.75).

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