#USDX Analysis for July 31, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index was rejected at the first resistance level we noted yesterday at 82. The downward sloping channel was not broken and prices got rejected at resistance. This is a sign of weakness and we expect the low at 81.50 to be put to the test. Short-term trend remains down as long as prices trade below 82.35. Intermediate-term trend remains down as long as prices trade below 83.45.

Prices have risen from 81.50 in an overlapping pattern not giving us any bullish sign as this pattern is corrective to the dominant short term downtrend. We believe that as long as prices trade below 82 we will test and break below 81.50 towards 81.

In the daily chart we continue to trade between the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci retracements but there is no clear upward impulsive move to mark the start of the reversal. Long-term trend may remain up as long as prices trade above 80, but breaking below 81.50 will put the longer term supports to the test. We remain neutral waiting for the first signals of a trend reversal that is very possible around this price area of 81.50.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 31, 2013 Trend News

Gold continues its sideways movement inside the triangle. This pattern after the top of 1,348 is a sideways triangle and not the downward impulsive move that we were expecting. Prices still remain inside the long-term upward sloping trend channel from 1,180 and today we post an alternative wave count that every passing day makes it more possible.

As shown in the daily chart above, this sideways movement looks like a very possible wave 4 if we assume a new upward impulsive move started from 1,180. This means that we should expect an upward break for the final fifth wave to complete the entire move from 1,180. Targets for this fifth wave are 1,360-1,380.

This does not mean that we forget the bearish possibilities. We still believe that 1,340-49 is an important resistance where prices were rejected more than once. Short-term resistance is found at 1,340 and as long as prices trade above 1,325 the chances for the bullish alternative increase. If prices break below 1,320 then bears will take over again and the bearish scenario will become the dominant again.

Concluding, we are now neutral as prices continue to slide sideways and support at 1,320-25 has been held. Whichever side the triangle breaks, we will see a sharp move towards 1,360 or 1,300.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 31, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6762

R2: 1.6686

R1: 1.6649

Current Spot: 1.6612

S1: 1.6577

S2: 1.6543

S3: 1.6514

Technical summary:

With an almost perfect test of strong resistance at 1.6686 (the high has been 1.6674) we think that a correction of this red wave i towards 1.6577 and likely deeper towards 1.6543 would be appropriate. However, we can make a case, where we will not see a correction of that magnitude and if this is the case we will see a direct break above 1.6649 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6686 calling for a continuation higher towards 1.6762 and 1.6818 on the way towards 1.7326, which we believe will be the target for black wave iii.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6411 with a stop at 1.6390. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6543 or upon a break above 1.6649 with the same stop at 1.6390.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 31, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 131.17

R2: 130.72

R1: 130.31

Current Spot: 130.10

S1: 129.81

S2: 129.59

S3: 128.89

Technical summary:

We are still in wave ii of c and we do expect it to move higher towards 131.17, where wave ii will have corrected 50% of wave i, but we would not be surprised to see a 61.8% correction of wave i, which would call for a rally towards 131.54, before wave iii takes over for a powerful decline. We will expect wave iii of c to be an extended wave and that would call for a decline towards 126.07 if a 50% correction turns out to be enough. In the short term a break above 130.31 will indicate, that wave c of the correction is under way towards 131.17 and maybe 131.54. Only a direct break below 129.59 will indicate, that wave iii is already has taken over.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for EUR-selling opportunity. We will sell EUR at 131.10 or upon a break below 129.59 with a stop at 132.80.

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#USDX Analysis for July 30, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index continues to trade within the downward sloping trend channel with no sign of strength to reverse the intermediate and short-term trend. Prices, however, bounced at the 81.50 support level where the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement also is. The short-term downward sloping blue trend line in the daily chart has been broken upwards but bulls need more evidence of a trend change.

Of course the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement is an important support level, but bulls will need to show strength and break resistance levels of 82 and 82.35. Unless we see an impulsive upward move that will break resistances we cannot be certain of a trend reversal. The evidence suggests that the reversal will come soon, but patience is also important. It is also important for our bulish view not to see a breakdown of prices below 81.50, as this will diminish the chances of an upward move.

Concluding, the bulls will need to see an upward break out of the downward sloping channel shown in the hourly chart above. This will be a good sign of trend reversal. Adding to long positions above 82.35 is also another strategy where we add to strength as resistance is broken and momentum for bulls builds up. The entire move from 84.75 remains corrective according to our analysis and that is why we still favor the upside potential.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 30, 2013 Trend News

Yesterday gold did not manage to break below the 1,325 support and neither above the 1,340 resistance. We remain short biased as long as prices remain below the 1,350 area. Our bearish view has not changed for some time and we believe that sooner or later prices are going to fall hard towards at least 1,270-80 price range.

The daily chart above still gives the bulls some chances that this sideways triangle will break upwards as soon as prices touch the lower boundaries of the upward sloping channel. We give more chances that it will break downwards. We are short biased but confirmation of our bearish scenario will come once prices break down important support levels of 1,260.

Gold as shown in the 1 hour chart above continues to trade sideways. We have altered the trend lines a bit in order to be more accurate with support and resistance levels of the triangle. If we see a break below wave i of 3, we believe we are going to see an acceleration towards 1,300-1,290. Concluding we remain short with 1,350 stop. Traders could add to short positions in our opinion only if support at 1,260 is broken. Very short-term traders could also lower their stop at the wave 2 or A high at 1,340. Targets for our short-term short position is the 1,280-90 level. Our longe- term short targets are at 1,200-1,150.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 30, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6634

R2: 1.6592

R1: 1.6571

Current Spot: 1.6554

S1: 1.6527

S2: 1.6501

S3: 1.6482

Technical summary:

With the break above 1.6486 we had confirmation, that a bottom is in place for a new impulsive rally higher. To confirm, that we have seen an important low for wave ii we would like to see a break above strong resistance at 1.6686 as well, as that will confirm continuation higher towards 1.6818 and 171.13. In the short term we are looking for support at 1.6527 and important support at 1.6482, which ideally protects the downside for the rally towards 1.6686.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6411 and will move our stop higher to 1.6390 leaving us with a very small risk. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy on a possible set-back towards 1.6527 with the same stop at 1.6390.

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Silver testing line of support for now around 19.60/70 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver remains at a cross road, ahead of the next move. A bullish bounce at the line of support around 19.60/70 region would shift focus at 20.50 and 21.00, while a break could be in continuation towards the larger trend, which is down! In line with its counterpart Gold, the metal has failed to produce recent swing highs as well. Aggressive traders may opt to remain short against recent highs at 20.60 level. Immediate support is around the 19.30 region, while resistance is 20.50/21.00, followed by 22.50. Awaiting for next clear trade direction.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.

Good luck!

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Gold consolidates in cone format before breaking out. 1,350 remains resistance Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has been locked into consolidation since last few trading sessions. A break above 1,340 level again, would be bullish, while a break below 1,325.00 has got the potential to bring down prices to 1,250/70 levels. Immediate support is at 1,270, followed by 1,210.00 and lower; while resistance is at 1,400.00 level as depicted here. It is recommended to remain short against 1,350.00 for now. On the flip side, a push through the 1,380.00 region would confirm a trend reversal towards bullish side on the long-term basis and would shift our focus to go long on dips again.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 1,351.50, and target is 1,250/60.

Good luck!

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EurJpy at channel support again. Break here would be bearish Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Since the break of rising trend line which happened lately, the channel line has remained our focus to confirm the next trade direction. Prices are again testing channel support for now at around 130.00 level. A bullish bounce here would shift focus again towards 132.00 and higher; while a break would be bearish. For now it is recommended to remain long on positions initiated earlier. Resistance is around 133/134; while immediate support is at 128.00. The next big move should be unfolded in coming sessions though.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 128.00, and target is open. Sell on the channel line break.

Good luck!

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GbpChf consolidates before the next leg... Possibly higher Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

There is no change in the outlook from what has been discussed recently. The single currency pair seems to be consolidating after bouncing off the rising trend line recently around the 1.4270/80 mark. Intermediary support is at 1.4200, followed by 1.4075/1.4; while immediate resistance is at 1.48, followed by 1.5 and higher up. It is recommended to remain long on positions initiated earlier, till 1.42 remains intact. The current consolidation phase should be cleared off by the events lined up in the coming sessions. Looking higher for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is below 1.42, and target is open.

Good luck!

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 29, 2013 Trend News

Gold as expected reversed lower in an impulsive manner. However, our target remains 1,300 and lower in order to at least meet the conditions of a downward correction. Our view remains that the entire rise from 1,180 is a corrective A-B-C wave and now we start a new downward impulsive move. From 1,348 we have seen 5 waves down, three up and another 5 waves down. Our Elliott wave count is shown in the chart below where I have also added the alternative of a triangle corrective pattern that is also possible but not my first choice.

So what is our strategy? We remain bearish as wave 2 gave us a great opportunity to go short at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. We expect prices to break down and out of the triangle soon confirming our bearish view. Our stop for our short position remains the 1,348 price level. Bears will need to see a break below 1,313 that could push prices towards 1,290. Bulls, on the other hand, want prices to first break above 1,339 and then test the highs. Of course there will be the ultimate test for bulls. If another failure comes, the downward move will be strong.

The daily chart above shows that prices still trade within the upward sloping trend channel and that is why we are still cautious with our bearish feelings. The first signs supporting our bearish view are there, but we will also need to break below 1,287 and 1,260 in order to target a new low or a double bottom at 1,180 and lower. Concluding we remain bearish. For today we want prices to break below 1,325 support and head towards 1,308. Above we have resistance at 1,340 that should not be broken.

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#USDX Analysis for July 29, 2013 Trend News

On Friday, the Dollar Index continued to trade lower towards 81,50. Short- and intermediate-term trend remain down. Support is found at 81.50 where the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement is, as shown in the chart below. In the long term our view remains bullish as we believe that this area will mark a low for the Dollar Index.

The decline as shown above remains overlapping and we continue to believe that the correction is near its end. However, we will need to see a break above the downward sloping blue trend line and above the 82 price level as the first sign of bullishness. Short-term resistance level is found at 81.70-82-82.40. Bulls will need to break above those levels in order for our scenario to have chances. Otherwise, the downward drift will continue putting in danger the longer term bullish trend.

The downward sloping channel is still valid as trend remains down. Prices will need to break above the resistance levels we mentioned above in order for the short-term trend to change to up. The intermediate-term trend will change to up if prices break above 83.00. Concluding in the long term we remain bullish and we believe that at least at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement prices have found a bottom. We still believe that a rebound will come soon and trend will change. We still label the downward move from 84.75 as corrective and trend will soon resume upwards.

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Silver turns lower from resistance. 19.20 next support lower Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal remains subdued below 20.50 region and the immediate line of support is being tested again below 20.00. If short positions have been initiated earlier, it is recommended to hold or stay flat. Silver is lagging behind Gold on the higher side, and overall chart setups indicate that the corrective phase might be over. A trend line break down here, should be sold against 20.50 for sure. Next higher up resistance is seen at 22.50 while support is at 19.20 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Aggressive traders may remain short against 20.50/60.

Good luck!

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Gold remains bearish for now. 1,350 immediate resistance Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal is under the process of carving out lower lows from here on. 1,350.00 level has been held for now and till the time prices remain below, look lower. It is recommended to stay short below 1,350.00 level and add further positions as well. Next level of resistance is at 1,370/80 and 1,410.00, while support is around 1,270.00 and lower. The overall structure indicates that the next move should be towards the lower side at least till 1,250/70. A bullish bounce from there or not, needs to be seen. Looking lower at least for the short term.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 1,351.50, and target is at 1,250/70.

Good luck!

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EurJpy testing channel support. Buy on bounce Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

A 4H chart view has been depicted here for a closer look at channel support. As discussed earlier, the channel line support has remained intact since several trading sessions and if prices continue to take support, the sequence of higher highs may still continue further. Current levels of potential support has been tested at 130.00. A bullish bounce here should be bought against 128.00 with an open target. Only on the event of the channel line breaks, one should enter on the short side. Immediate resistance is the 133/134 region, while support is at 128.00 as shown.

Trading recommendations:

Buy on a bullish bounce on the channel line, stop is below 128.00, and target is open.

Good luck!

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GBP/CHF buying opportunities at 1.4270/80 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart /setups:

The single currency pair is carving out a potential long entry point, for the next leg up towards 1.45/1.46 levels. As discussed earlier, the 1.4270/80 level is the potential support with 0.618 Fibonacci support also crossing. It is recommended to remain long and also to add long positions at current levels 1.4270/80. Immediate chart resistance is at the 1.45 level while intermediary support is at the 1.42 level respectively. The overall structure might be suggesting a potential trend reversal from here on. The next big rally could possibly extend higher than the 1.5 level. Looking higher from here on.

Trade recommendations:

Remain long, add fresh positions as well, stop below 1.42, target open.

Good luck!

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AUD/USD - Rebound 0.9170 - daily strategy for July 26, 2013 Trend News

It is notable that the Australian dollar recovers. While the Aussie is moving in a narrow price range that has as immediate resistance 0.9323 area, it could stretch its gains beyond this level to the 0.95 and 0.98. So we must wait a weekly close above this level to enter the new movement upward, like the other commodity currency, the New Zealand dollar has recovered considerably in recent days amid the possibility of a rate increase by the RBNZ. Therefore, it is likely to observe a new bounce in the 0.9170 area, which will be a new buying opportunity with target 0.9310 in the short term.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 26, 2013 Trend News

Gold completed 5 waves down from 1,348 as expected by our previous analysis. We mentioned before that we expect a reversal around 1,350. This reversal came and prices fell from 1,348 to 1,309 in an impulsive 5 wave down formation. Yesterday we saw the final wave of the formation being complete and then prices pulled back up towards the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. According to Elliott wave theory, after a 5 wave movement (corrective or impulsive, it doesn't matter) we should expect a counter trend move and then another impulsive move following the initial trend. In our case, the first impulsive move was down from 1,348 to 1,309. The counter trend move pushed prices towards 1,340. Now we expect a new downward move that will most probably give a new lower low than 1,309.

The entire upward correction from 1,180 is most probably over. However, confirmation of this scenario will come if much lower price levels are overlapped. Until then we should trade cautiously with close stops. The market is now giving us the opportunity to sell with a small risk as prices are very close to our stop level at 1,348 and the upward correction was deep and not shallow. Therefore we prefer to go short near 1,335-40 area with the recent high at 1,348 as stop.

We expect prices to at least test the lower long-term boundaries of the upward sloping channel. If prices pause there, then this could be a signal for a long-term trend change. If prices break below and outside of those barriers, then our primary scenario will become stronger.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 26, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance дevels:

R3: 1.6525

R2: 1.6487

R1: 1.6460

Current Spot: 1.6411

S1: 1.6393

S2: 1.6349

S3: 1.6339

Technical overview:

As we broke below important support at 1.6475 and even more important support at 1.6427 we have been forced to change our count. Our preferred count is now that wave ii is still in motion from the 1.6798 high. As we already is way past the 61.8% corrective target we will be looking for support at Harmonic support at 70.7% (Gann target), which comes in at 1.6393 and again at the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.6349. However, it should be remembered, that second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, but it can never ever break below the start of the first wave, which in this case will be below 1.6225. However, we doubt that this wave ii correction will be that deep. That said, we will be looking for a possible bottom at 1.6393 for a break above 1.6487, which will be the first indication, that wave ii could be over. However, we will need a break above 1.6686 to confirm the bottom for a continuation higher towards 1.6798 and higher in wave iii.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6420 was taken out, but we will re-buy EUR here at 1.6411 with a stop at 1.6220. If you want to wait for a more conservative signal, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.6487 with the same stop at 1.6220.

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Silver finds intermediary support at 19.70 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal finds interim support at 19.70, just ahead of the rising trend line. Short-term view is still pointing towards a possible 21.00 mark but looking into gold setups, Silver has really been lagging behind in rallying towards fresh highs. It is recommended to book profits on long positions held earlier and remain flat for now. Aggressive traders may opt to initiate fresh short positions against the recent highs at 20.50 level. Immediate resistance is 20.50/60, followed by 22.50 on the higher side; while support is at 19.20/30 on the lower side.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions, initiate fresh shorts at 20.20/25, and stop is at 20.90.

Good luck!

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Gold preparing fall towards 1,250.00 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal is setting up for a short-term reversal towards 1,250/60 levels. As discussed yesterday, the counter trend expectations around 1,330/1,332 have been met and short positions could be initiated at current levels 1,335/36. The region of reversal is around a sloping down trend line and also a fibonacci ratio; hence it could also be a possible extension below 1,180.00 level. For now, the extensions are pointing towards 1,290/95 and 1,250. Immediate resistance would be 1,349/50, followed by 1,400 on the higher side; while support is around 1,270.00. Short-term implications are towards short side.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions for now, stop is at 1,351.50, and target is at 1,250/60.

Good luck!

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EurJpy: Rising channel remains intact Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

It seems that the single currency pair could be preparing to print higher highs from here on. The channel line depicted here has remained intact till now and it continues to hold, we would not be surprised to see fresh highs. It is recommended to remain flat for a while and let the prices react at 131/132 region which is the 0.786 resistance zone of the fall from 134.00 level to 125.00. Only a break below the channel line support would be a proof to sell aggressively again. Immediate resistance is the 133.80/134.00 region; while support is around 128.00 on the channel line. Prices could take a dip around 131.00 level before rallying again.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Looking to sell on a channel line break or buying at channel support.

Good luck!

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GBP/CHF done with retracement; initiate longs again Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair has retraced to just below the1.43 level yesterday; as it was discussed earlier. It looks like the retracement is done, and the pair is ready to resume its extension rally towards 1.48 and ahead. It is recommended to hold long positions taken earlier and enter new long positions as well, from here on. The pair had bounced off earlier right at the rising trend line support producing an engulfing bullish trade signal and it still holds true for the bulls to accelerate further. Immediate resistance is at the 1.48 level followed by 1.5 on the higher side; while immediate support is 1.42, followed by 1.4075 and lower.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop below 1.42, target 1.48 and ahead.

Good luck!

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EUR/USD - Sell below fractal 1.3230 - for July 25, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The euro has started to lose accumulated profits. The fact that it could not close above the daily fractal level 1.3228 increases the likelihood of a decline of the pair until the next fractal. Now immediate support is located at 1.3068. This pair is a little quiet, which means that soon we will see strong movements in this pair. This pair has always been affected by Federal Reserve data, which is its main driving force. However, there is concern that the FED begins to reduce its quantitative easing in September and that will raise the value of the U.S. dollar. If you take into account the weakness of the European economy, it is more likely that in the next few weeks the euro reaches the level of 1.30.

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USDX analysis for July 25, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index is showing signs of a trend reversal as prices seem to find support near the 82 price level. The 82 price level was our target to end the downward correction and it seems that the market things this level is important and that is why the downtrend has paused the decline here. Long-term trend remains up as long as prices trade above 80. Intermediate term is down as long as prices trade below 83.45. Short-term trend has changed to up and is ready to challenge the intermediate-term trend.

Prices have shown a similar pause to the decline at the 82.65 price area and then broke downwards. Prices currently have made two lows on higher than the other at the 81.92 and 81.95 price level. This second higher low even if it is slightly higher it produces a higher high. The dollar index has broken out of the short term downward channel as shown in the chart below. The high at 82.26 was broken and a new higher high at 82.41 was made. This pattern of higher highs and higher lows is a significant sign of trend change. For this sign to remain valid we should not see prices break below 81.90. If prices break below 81.90 we should expect a push towards 81.70 at least. Short-term resistance is found at 82.45 and 82.70 price levels. Bulls will need to break above those levels in order for the intermediate down trend to be challenged.

Concluding we remain slightly bullish as long as prices stay above 81.90 and will add to longs as resistances are broken. If prices break above 82.70 we will add to long. We will close all longs below 81.90.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 25, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 133.20

R2: 132.74

R1: 132.49

Current Spot: 132.24

S1: 132.00

S2: 131.80

S3: 131.37

Technical overview:

The very bumpy b-wave continues to work its way higher towards our ideal target, which is at the former high at 133.81. That said we have seen the first signs of this move getting weaker and it is loosing momentum all the time now. Therefore, we are getting closer to the b-wave top and should be prepared for the powerful decline in wave c taking over. The first target for wave c will be at 124.96, but it could extend and break below 124.96 for a decline closer to the bottom of wave 4 of one lessor degree, which comes in at 118.73. In the short term we are still looking for slightly higher levels as long as support at 131.37 and more importantly support at 130.76 protects the downside, but a break below 131.37 is a new clear sign of weakness, while a break below 130.76 will indicate, that wave c is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR selling opportunity and will place sell orders at 133.20 and at 130.75 (one order done cancels the other). We will place our stop at 134.60.

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Silver: 21.00 remains interim target for bulls Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal remains subdued/confined above 20.00 region for now. Minimum implications from here is that a retracement lower, before the rally resumes towards 21.00 level. Support levels are spread through 19.25 level, followed by 18.70/75 region lower; while resistance is in the 22.50 region ahead. It is recommended to remain long for now, or take profits for now and wait for a dip lower to enter again buying. Immediate support should be around the 19.50/60 region where trend line is also passing through. Looking lower for short term.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 18.70, and target is at 21.00.

Good luck!

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Gold initiates pullback around 1,340.00 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has finally reversed from 1,340.00 region as discussed earlier this week. As seen on the chart view depicted here, this region is been re-enforced by past support turned resistance and the dropping trend line resistance as well. Further implications are that the metal should initiate a 3 wave retracement towards possible 1,250/60 region again, before looking further up. For now, the pair has found interim support at 1,313.00 level and it should initiate a counter rally towards 1,330.00 and possibly 1,339.00 level. It is recommended to enter short around 1,339/1,340 region for now. Bottomline: Looking lower for short term.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions around 1,339/40 region, stop is at 1,351.50, and target is open.

Good luck!

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EUR/JPY inching ahead as channel remains intact; flat for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair stopped us out just ahead of the 1.3250 level yesterday. Looking into the chart setup presented here, two possibilities are emerging here. If the channel line support remains intact, the pair would be heading towards a fresh high above the 134.00 level. While a reversal ahead of the implied resistance at the 133/134 levels would see a sharp reversal on the lower side. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for further signal clarity to initiate directional positions. Looking into the entire chart run up till now, higher probability remains for a top to form before resistance and reversal on the lower side.



Trading recommendations:

Flat for now.



Good Luck!

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GBP/CHF rally to continue; 1.4270/75 is support Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair was expected to begin retracement lower, as discussed earlier. On shorter time frames, it looks like the pair is ready to take support from lower levels (around 1.4270/75), before the next bull run begins. Intermediary support is at the 1.4200 level, which is also at the rising trend line, followed by 1.4075 and lower; while immediate resistance is at the 1.4800 level, followed by 1.5. It is recommended to remain long for now and add further positions after dips around the 1.4270/75 mark. Bottomline: Look higher after retracement levels, till the 1.4200 level is intact.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop below 1.4200, target open.

Good Luck!

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EUR/USD - Key level 1.3214 - for July 24, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The euro reached 1.3255 at its high of the day so far, due to a series of data from Germany and France related to manufacturing, with better than expected figures. It has given the euro bullish strength, but we note that in the American session this pair is falling, while the Momentum Indicator is showing a bullish signal. Maybe just a pullback continues the upward move, but we must be very careful as this pair tries to bounce back above 1.3214. If this area is broken and 4H chart is located below, this will be a good chance to sell this pair up to 1.3104 support.

If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 24, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices have continued their upward extension towards 1,350 where wave C equals 1.618 times of wave A. The rise from 1,270 is near completion and we favor closing long positions, raising stops and remaining neutral. We believe that soon a downward correction will start. We will go short only if prices break support levels and break out of the upward sloping trend channel.

The bigger picture wave count is shown in the chart above. The upper boundaries of the longer term upward sloping channel are important resistance levels and I expect prices to be rejected there and pull back down towards the previous wave 4 or the lower boundaries of the upward channel. Breaking out of this upward sloping channel will confirm our view that this upward move from 1,180 is corrective. If prices manage to remain within the channel, then we will look into the possibility of the existence of a 5 wave upward move from 1,180 that could imply longer term bullishness.

The short-term trend in Gold prices remains up. The move from 1,270 seems complete and I expect the short-term upward channel to break soon. If that happens I prefer short positions with the last high at 1,348 as stop. I expect at least a 30 dollar decline and a visit to the 4th wave price area. Although my primary scenario is bearish and I believe that the entire upward move is corrective, we should not ignore the possibility that a larger upward pattern is in force. If prices break downwards but do not manage to overlap wave 1 at 1266, then the bulls will still have many posibilities of survical.

Concluding, we are currently neutral expecting a break of the upward channel to go short with the last high as stop and first take profit level at the 1,310 area.

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USDX analysis for July 24, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index continues trading around the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and the pause to the steep decline is just another sign of the importance of support at this level. Additionaly this adds to our chances of a trend reversal as the 61,8% retracement is a key support level. The decline from 84.75 still remains overlapping and thus corrective, and our bullish scenario still has a lot of chances to be fulfilled.

Current price action takes place above 82 but short-term trend remains down. Prices continue to trade within a downward sloping channel. Short-term resistance is found at 82.25 and 82.45. Short-term support is found at 81.90-70. We believe that we will soon see and upward break out of the downward sloping channels, marking the start of a new upward wave that eventually will give new highs above 85.

The long-term trend is bullish with 80 as stop. The intermediate term trend is neutral to down as the short term down trend prevails and has not changed yet. Bulls will need prices to move impulsively upwards and break above 82.25 and 82.65 price levels in order for the short term trend to change and the intermediate term trend to be challenged. Above 83.45 the intermediate term trend will change to up. We believe that an important bottom is being formed and that trend will change soon.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6733

R2: 1.6673

R1: 1.6603

Current Spot: 1.6564

S1: 1.6552

S2: 1.6528

S1: 1.6496

Technical overview:

We are looking for a powerful rally to take off any time now. A clear break above 1.6603 opens up the upside for an impulsive rally higher towards 1.7364, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i. However, this rally could become even more extended and rally higher towards 1.7929, but only time will tell. In the short term we are looking for a minor support at 1.6552 to protect the downside for the break above 1.6603, but even if we see a break below 1.6552 the downside should be limited and at no point should we break below 1.6476 as that would delay the expected rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6625 with a stop at 1.6420. If you are not long EUR yet we recommend buy upon a break above 1.6603 with the same stop at 1.6420.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 24, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 132.78

R2: 132.27

R1: 132.01

Current Spot: 131.73

S1: 131.37

S2: 131.09

S3: 130.72

Technical overview:

We have been locked in a price range between 130.71 and 132.27 since late Friday. However, we are still looking for a continuation higher towards the next minor resistance at 132.78 and possibly higher towards our ideal target near the former high at 133.81. That said, we regard this rally as a part of a complex correction and once this rally is over we should see an impulsive decline towards at least 124.96 and possibly even lower. Short-term support at 130.72 will protect the downside, but we will need a break below strong support at 129.67 to confirm, that this b-wave rally is over and wave c lower is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We will stay neutral for now and await a more clear picture.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 23rd 2013 Trend News

Gold held support yesterday and continued its rise towards the wave relationship where wave C is equal 1.618 times of wave A. Currently this last 5th wave up is nearly 100% equal to wave 1 and 3. Additionaly prices have already completed 5 waves up and there are increased chances of a downward move. At least a corrective down move towards 1,280-90 is epxected. If however our bearish scenario that this upward move is an A-B-C correction, then we should expect new lows in August.

In the daily chart as shown above, prices have reached the upper boundaries of the upward channel and this is another sign of a possible intermediate and short term top at this level. The entire upward move from 1,180 is a 3 wave move and unless prices push below and outside of the upward sloping trend channel, we should always keep in mind the possibility of a longer term bottom at 1,180.

Golds impulsive upward break of the triangle is nearly complete. We prefer to close the rest of our long positions or at least raise our stop to 1,322. We expect prices to pull back and our profits should be protected. Currently the bullish scenario that implies and new upward move has started at 1,180, it is valid until prices break below 1,260. Until that point we should look for bearish signs. One bearish sign will be the break of 1,323 price level. 1,300 is also important support level, if it is broken it will give momentum to bears. Confirmation of a longer term top and increased possibilities of a new low below 1,180 will be given if prices break below 1,260. Concluding, we are exiting from our long positions and will consider going short if prices break support. Stop is the last high.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 23, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6612

R2: 1.6582

R3: 1.6552

Current Spot: 1.6511

S1: 1.6477

S2: 1.6461

S3: 1.6427

Technical overview:

Yesterday we saw a break above resistance at 1.6638, but the break was not sustained and the following decline was deep. However, we are convinced that we have seen the low of wave ii at 1.6427 and it just is a matter of time before we will see the next powerful rally higher towards at least 1.6815 in the short term. In the long term we are looking for wave iii higher towards at least 1.7364 and possibly much higher. Wave ii has been an expanded flat correction and the impulsive rally to follow an expanded flat correction will likely be an extended rally itself. Therefore, a rally to minimum 1.7364, where wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than wave i, should be expected. At this point only a break below 1.6427 will force us to change our count, but the possibly downside should be limited to 1.6383 and just maybe 1.6338 before the next rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 1.6625 yesterday with a stop at 1.6420. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy here at 1.6511 with a low risk stop at 1.6420 or wait for a break above 1.6552 to confirm that wave iii is developing.

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Silver just shy of 21.00 level. Remain long Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver hit 20.50 level yesterday. Minimum expectations are for 21.00 level before a meaningful retracement occurs. It is hence recommended to remain long for a while now. Resistance is at 22.50 level higher up, while support is at 19.20/30, followed by 18.70/57 and lower at 18.00 level. It is recommended to move risk to 19.00 level for now. The current level of 20.50 could provide resistance considering the fact that a fibonacci 0.5 resistance level and the dropping trendline are both passing through the same region.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, move stop to 19.00, target is at 21.00.

Good luck!

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