One month ago, bears initiated a bearish trend off the price levels around 1.7150-1.7190. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been declining within the depicted bearish channel.
The price levels of 1.7050 - 1.7000 failed to provide enough support for the pair. Hence, bears had an initial bearish target around 1.6800.
However, this price zone around 1.6800 failed to provide support too. Thus, the bears pursued the downside movement within the depicted chart.
The next bearish destination is located between price levels of 1.5900 and 1.6000 where a previous congestion zone was established in October 2013.
Sustained bearish pressure will expose the price levels around 1.6050, 1.6000 and 1.5920 for retesting. These levels are intraday support levels to meet the pair.
On the other hand, price zone of 1.6250-1.6320 constitutes a prominent resistance zone to offer a valid SELL entry at retesting. This price zone corresponds to the downtrend line initiated since July.
Fundamnetal Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a near-six-year high at 106.09 on Monday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.31 versus 83.83 early Monday) after a research report released on Monday from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reading that "evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants," triggering speculation that the Fed might sound less dovish than expected at next week's FOMC policy meeting. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers amd 6.4% rise in Conference Board U.S. employment trends index to 121.29 in August; more-than-expected $26.01 billion increase in U.S. July consumer credit (versus forecast +$17.5 billion), higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.471% versus 2.460% late Friday) and weaker JPY sentiment after Japan's 2Q annualized GDP revised down to -7.1% from preliminary -6.8% and capital expenditure revised down to -5.1% from preliminary -2.5%, fuelling fears that the sales tax increase in April has hurt the economy more than expected. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 106.50 and the second target at 107. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 105.40. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 104.95. The pivot point is at 105.70.
Resistance levels:
106.50
107
107.35
Support levels:
105.40
104.95
104.70
Fundamental Overview:
USD/CHF--to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a one-year high 0.9359 this morning. Supported by the positive dollar sentiment as 6.4% rise in Conference Board U.S. employment trends index to 121.29 in August; more-than-expected $26.01 billion increase in U.S. July consumer credit (versus forecast +$17.5 billion), higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.471% versus 2.460% late Friday, contagion from weak EUR on CHF and rise in Switzerland jobless rate to 3.0% in August from 2.9% in July; dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment and higher-than-expected 0.1% on-year rise in August CPI (versus forecast +0.0%).
Technical Comments:
The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9380 and the second target at 0.9430. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9290. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9250. The pivot point is at 0.9330.
Resistance levels:
0.9380
0.9430
0.9465
Support levels:
0.9290
0.9250
0.9210
The bullish breakout off the depicted channel allowed the bulls to retest the price zone between 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) where a prominent congestion zone was previously formed.
One month ago, the USD/CAD pair failed to maintain daily closure above price level of 1.0950, then a double-top reversal pattern was expressed at retesting last week.
As we mentioned before, bearish rejection was anticipated after such a long bullish rally that originated off 1.0650 and 1.0710.
A valid SELL position was suggested at retesting which took place last week. The initial bearish target was located around 1.0825, then 1.0770 (considerable Intraday support).
The price zone of 1.0990-1.1020 still offers a valid low-risk SELL entry as we mentioned last week.
As long as the recent top at 1.1050 remains unbroken, our sell position remains valid.
Daily fixation above 1.0950 (50% Fibonacci level) enabled the bulls to shoot towards 1.1025 ( 61.8% Fibonacci level ) where bearish rejection is anticipated.
On the other hand, daily closure below the price zone of 1.0950 confirms a long-term double-top pattern (on the daily chart) with its projection target located at 1.0770.
The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum thus, initiating the current downtrend.
Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure at the price level of 1.3560 (corresponding to the previous prominent bottom).
Since then, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel until the price level of 1.3330 where a narrow range congestion zone was established.
Shortly after, bearish breakout was expressed. Quick decline occurred towards the price levels around 1.3150 then 1.3000 following a bearish gap.
Further price action should be considered knowing that the pair is currently testing the lower limit of the channel around 1.2920-1.2860.
High probability of reversal exists despite the manifest bearish momentum provided that the recent daily low around 1.2860 remains defended by the bulls.
The short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone of 1.3310-1.3400.
Daily closure should be considered to determine if the lower limit of the channel will provide support for the bulls or not.
Bullish fixation above 1.3150 and 1.3200 ( recent tops ) is essential to acquire a momentum strong enough to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3295 and 1.3330 as well.
On the other hand, bearish pressure is currently targeting at 1.2860 ( lower limit of the depicted channel ).
Four-hour fixation above price level of 1.2950 ensures higher probability of bullish reversal.
Fundamental Overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a six-and-a-half month low 0.8258 on Monday. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.31 versus 83.83 early Monday) after a research report released Monday from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said "evidence based on surveys, market expectations, and model estimates show that the public seems to expect a more accommodative policy than Federal Open Market Committee participants," triggering speculation that the Fed might sound less dovish than expected at next week's FOMC policy meeting and weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid the weak yen sentiment, Kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross, NZD-USD interest differential and caution ahead of Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision on Thursday.
Technical Comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8215. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8180. The pivot point stands at 0.83. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8350 and the second target at 0.8390.
Resistance levels:
0.8350
0.8390
0.8435
Support levels:
0.8215
0.8180
0.8175
Fundamental Overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the weak yen sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales, worries about Scotland potentially becoming independent and its implications on the U.K. economy, raising question about whether the uncertainty could delay the first Bank of England rate increase and sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross.
Technical Comment:
The daily chart mixed as MACD & stochastics bearish, but five- & 15-day moving averages meandering sideways.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.75 and the second target at 172.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169.25. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 168.55. The pivot point is at 170.25.
Resistance levels:
171.75
172.35
172.75
Support levels:
169.25
168.55
168.15
Overview:
Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading sideways, around the price of 1.5570. We can observe sideways movement (consolidation), which is normal reaction after a strong selling climax in the background. It is still unsafe to buy anything, so watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak reaction from buyers, so buying looks very risky. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5550, we may see potential testing the level of 1.5455 (swing low like support). According to previous price action, I found resistance level at the price of 1.5640.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.5629
R2: 1.5653
R3: 1.5692
Support levels:
S1: 1.5551
S2: 1.5527
S3: 1.5488
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.
Overview:
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,251.23 in a volume above average. The price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the level of 1,272.00, and that is the reason why we saw bearish continuation. Our major Fibonacci expansion 61.8%% is on the test. If the price breaks the level of 1,251.00 in a high volume, we may see more downward movement and potential testing the level of 1,218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak demand in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1,267.50
R2: 1,272.34
R3: 1,280.17
Support levels:
S1: 1,251.84
S2: 1,247.00
S3: 1,239.17
Trading recommendations: Buying at this stage looks risky since the price has rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2%.
Overview :
Forecast in the long term :
Notes :
General overview for 09/09/2014 09:50 CET
The market is about to complete the extended corrective cycle in a shape of an abc purple irregular flat correction. The 50%Fibo level is being tested now and there is always some degree of possibility that this corrective cycle will become more complex and time-consuming and 61%Fibo will be tested. But so far it looks like if the intraday support at the level of 136.60 is violated, then the market should start the last impulsive leg to the downside.
Support/Resistance:
135.71 - Technical Support
136.60 - Intraday Support | Weekly Pivot |
136.98 - Intraday Resistance
137.03 - 50%Fibo
137.32 - 61%Fibo
137.72 - WR1
138.25 - Swing High
Trading recommendations:
Day traders should consider opening sell stop orders at the level of 136.60, with SL above the level of 136.98 and TP at the level of 135.71 with a possible downward extension to the level of 135.45.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comThe market is trying to make new highs here as it has been anticipated yesterday. Then, more upside should be seen here as there is unfinished impulsive wave progression to the upside. The next resistance is at the level of 1.1052 but on larger time frames even higher price levels can be seen as the mid-term trend is bullish.
Support/Resistance:
1.1060 - WR3
1.1002 - WR2
1.0995 - Technical Resistance
1.094 1- WR1
1.0908 - Intraday Resistance
1.0881 - Weekly Pivot
1.0820 - WS1
Trading recommendations:
Yesterday's buy orders have hit the target levels. For today, day traders should consider buying the dips with SL below the level of 1.0980 and TP at the level of 1.1052.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comThe Dollar index remains strong and in a bullish trend. Having broken strongly above the 84 level, we now reach important resistance area of 84.75-85 area that could put a pause to this strong rally. The probability of a pullback from the current levels cannot be ignored and bulls should be very cautious and raise their stops.
The trend remains strongly bullish. Support is at 83.75 and 84.10. Price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. In Ichimoku terms, the trend remains strongly bullish but could soon see a pause in the rise.
The weekly chart above shows that we are closing in at very important resistance levels. Surely, the current upward move is very strong and a break above 85 could signal a bigger upward trend reversal. I believe we are going to test the 84.75-85 levels soon. Taking profits and avoiding to be greedy is advised.
Gold price continued with a new lower low yesterday as we expected. The trend remains down. Our short-term target remains at $1,240 while we should not be surprised to see Gold price fall below $1,200 in a sharp move. Bears continue to have the upper hand as Gold price is below previously important support levels of $1,270-75.
In the 4 hour chart, price remains in a clear downtrend. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud with both the kijun- and tenkan-sen pointing lower while the Chiku span also points lower. Support is found at $1,250 and $1,240. I expect these levels to be reached. Resistance is found at $1,274. If broken, we could see a bounce towards $1,285.
The daily chart remains fully bearish with a short-term target of $1,240 and with a bigger target of $1,000. Price is below the important red trend line that comes through $1,180 and $1,240. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs in the daily chart. The trend will change only if price breaks above $1,295.
The Scotland Independence news hit the pound very strongly. The pair hit the previous two swing lows in intraday, but at the end of the day the pair managed to close above the higher swing which means the bullish outlook is still alive in the short term. The 200DEma gave enough support to push the prices towards 200DSma. The pair opened with a mild bearish note; we expect the previous swing low at 170.45 will provide enough support. The trading pattern is framed between 169.20-171.30. When a daily close is above 171.30, it will fly up to 171.65 and 171.88. The short-term trend will turn negative if the pair closes below 169.20 on a weekly closing basis.
Key support level is 169.20.
Resistance is at 172.25.
Until a week closes above 172.25, bears will try to push the prices to lower levels.
Intraday cmp 170.62.
The pair is restricted at 12ema, above this the 2-week descending trend line will act as major resistance. We can see a sharp run only above 171 towards 171.50 and 171.70. On the down side, it has support at 170.50. We recommend selling below 170.50. Buy above 171.
The pair gets support from August 08 at a low of 135.72 twice and pushed towards 20Dsma. But the pair was restricted at 20Dsma. In today's session the pair is unable to breach the previous days high. The pair opened with a mildly bearish note. The pair has strong resistance at the 137.10, 137.35, and 137.55 levels. Once 137.10 is taken off, it can fly up to 137.55. On a positional basis, until the price closes above 137.10 (20Dsma), the trading pattern will be framed between the 135.70-137 levels. A break below 135.70 leads to a downfall to 134 on a positional basis. On a short-term basis, until the pair closes above the broken support triangle, bears will have an upper hand to make 134 initially after the 131 level.
Intraday cmp 136.70
The price is closed and trading above 12ema and 21hrsma. The pair is facing strong resistance at 34hrsma. It made a double top in the hourly chart. The RSI in the h4 chart is indicating a buy signal. We recommend buying at cmp and add on dip with sl 136.50 for an upside target at 136.97 and 137.30. Above 137, we can see a sharp upmove towards 137.33. On the downside, it has the support level between 136.58-136.55.
The metal took the support at $1,250 and managed to close above $1,254 at a previous session. Today, the metal opened with a bullish note opening low. The metal has resistance at $1,257, above this the metal will regain some strength by lower level buying. The metal has resistance at $1,268-$1,269 and $1,272.80. The weekly resistance existed at $1,282.50 (20Dsma). Until the metal closes above $1,282.50, the near term favors selling on an up move. On the down side, below $1,250 it can extend its fall up to $1,247, $1,245, and $1,240. The medium-term break down will trigger below $1,240 towards the $1,220 and $1,210 levels.
Support $1,250 $1,245 $1,240.
Resistance $1,257 $1,262 $1,268-$1,269.
Intraday cmp $1,256.70.
We recommend to buy for an hourly and intraday basis at cmp. The real power will gain above $1,260 towards $1,261, $1,264.50 and $1,267.50. Hourly traders can buy with sl $1,255, intraday trades can use sl $1,250. Strong sell will emerge below $1,250, traders can reverse their trade if $1,250 taken off for a down side target $1,245 and $1,240 levels.
Short term forecast-
The Scotland Independence news hit the pound very strongly, hit the 200WEma and is approaching the short-term support or 1.60 50Msma. Currently, the pound is trading at 1.6099. A break below 1.60 leads to another 100-150 pips fall up to 1.5894-1.5850 (November 2013 low) in the least case, it can extend its fall up to 1.5718 (the 61.8fib level move from 1.4813-1.7192). The monthly momentum Oscillators are still indicating the sell mode. On the upside, it has resistance at 1.6210 and 1.6252 is the monthly strong resistance
Key support level 1.60
Intraday cmp 1.61
The hourly and intraday oscillators are indicating oversold levels. At this point of time, fresh selling is not a good idea. Use a dip to buy on an hourly and intraday basis, wait for an up move to sell again. This view is valid with sl 1.60 on a daily closing basis. The pair has resistance at 1.62-1.6220, 1.6252, 1.6310, and 1.6391. Bulls use a dip to buy with sl 1.60 and bears can wait for a minor up move to sell again.
