Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range. USD/JPY is undermined by the selling of yen crosses amid the increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 1.77% to 16.66, S&P 500 fell 0.56% to close at 1,909.57 overnight) as well as concerns over ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and between the West and Russia over Ukraine. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.53 versus 81.43 early Thursday) after smaller-than-expected U.S. jobless claims of 289,000 in week ended Aug. 2 (versus forecast 300,000); reports that Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund plans to increase its allocation to domestic stocks to over 20%; adjustment of positions before the weekend.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is falling from the overbought zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.40. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.15. The pivot point stands at 102.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.45 and the second target at 102.75.

Resistance levels:

102.45

102.75

103

Support levels:

101.40

101.15

100.75

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment, franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross, and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the flows to haven CHF amid heightened geopolitical concerns over Ukraine and the Middle East as well as adjustment of positions before the weekend. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics is bearish in the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9035. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9010. The pivot point stands at 0.9085. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9115 and the second target at 0.9135.

Resistance levels:

0.9115

0.9135

0.9155



Support levels:

0.9035

0.9010

0.8975

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid the increasing investor risk aversion, the positive dollar sentiment and weak dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross, NZD-USD interest differential, and adjustment of positions before the weekend. Kiwi is vulnerable to China July trade balance data. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed in the oversold zone; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8375 and the second target at 0.8350. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8505. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8530. The pivot point is at 0.8420.

Resistance levels:

0.8505

0.8530

0.8560

Support levels:

0.8375

0.8350

0.8315

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the increasing investor risk aversion and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and adjustment of positions before the weekend. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 170.70. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 170.20. The pivot point stands at 171.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172 and the second target at 172.65.

Resistance levels:

172

172.65

173



Support levels:

170.70

170.20

169.85

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Daily analysis of Silver for August 08, 2014 Trend News

Overview

According to our previous expectations, the price closure below the Resistance level of 29.00 will give new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Resistance level to trade below and open the way towards 19.75 as the first target. Then, the metal must test the Support level of 19.75 to gain more bearish move until it reaches the level of 19.50 as the second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level of 19.75 cancels the bearish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.50), R2 (20.20), R1 (20.00), S1 (19.75), S2 (19.20), S3(18.90)

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 08, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading sideways. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential end of a bullish corrective phase and I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5815 (currently on the test). I have placed Fibonacci retracement from the most recent downward leg and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5815. Watch for potential selling opportunities. According to the previous price action, we got support at the price of 1.5625 (swing high like resistance). We are still waiting for larger movement and larger activity on this pair. Be careful when buying this pair and watch for potential selling opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5811

R2: 1.5834

R3: 1.5873

Support levels:

S1: 1.5734

S2: 1.5711

S3: 1.5673

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for August 08, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,322.45 in a volume above average according to the daily time frame. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe demand in a high volume. So, selling at this stage looks riksy. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,321.00 is on the test. If the price breaks the level of 1,321.00 in a higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,343.00.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,315.75

R2: 1,318.91

R3: 1,324.03

Support levels:

S1: 1,305.51

S2: 1,302.35

S3: 1,297.23

Trading recommendations: Selling Gold looks risky, so watch for potential buying opportunities if the price breaks the level of 1,321.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• As expected, the support has broken and turned to resistance at the same key level (1.0950). So, resistance of the USD/CAD pair has already set at the price of 1.0950 and the double top is placed at the price of 1.0959. Equally important, the price set below the resistance level a week ago. Furthermore, the price is moving between 1.0950 and 1.0895. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of the bearish market. Hence, the market indicates the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.0950 with the first target of 1.0910, and continues towards the level of 1.0885 again. It should be noted that the price of 1.0885 coincides with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels.
  

• On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for this reason it will be wise to set your stop loss at the 1.0980 price. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.0980 represents the last swing of the USD/CAD pair in H1 and H4 charts. Consequently, the pair is going to form the second resistance at the 1.0980 price in coming hours.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The market has opened below the daily resistance today. The resistance has already set at the level of 1.3412 on August 8, 2014. Additionally, the weekly pivot point also coincides with the same price (1.3412). Moreover, the EUR/USD pair has not reached the weekly pivot point yesterday and today the price is still around it. Hence, the trend was sideways and the range seemed extensive up to 80 pips. According to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the level of 1.3403 and 1.3360 level. Therefore, it will be advantageous to sell at the price of 1.3412 (the weekly pivot point) with the first target at 1.3357 ( the level of 1.3357 is going to represent the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels). It may resume to 1.3330 if the price is able to break 1.3357. Notwithstanding, stop loss should always be in account, accordingly, it will be of beneficial to set the stop loss above the double top at the price of 1.3450.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 8, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 08/08/2014 09:50 CET

The purple wave b of the overall corrective cycle looks to be completed. Now, the market should be ready to trade lower in order to complete purple wave c of the red wave 4 correction. To support this view, the intraday support at the level of 1.0903 needs to be broken in impulsive fashion but the possibility of a triangle shaped corrective cycle can not be ruled out yet. The key level to the upside is the intraday resistance at the level of 1.0943. Breakout above means the recent swing high will be put to the test. The bias is still bullish in the mid-term, but first the corrective cycle must be completed before new highs will be made eventually.

Support/Resistance:

1.0991 - WR1

1.0985 - Swing High

1.0943 - Intraday Resistance

1.0903 - Intraday Support

1.0892 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders should still keep their long positions open and buy the dips into the level of 1.0875.

Day traders should still hold the sell orders opened yesterday with the same TP at the level of 1.0875.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 8, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 08/08/2014 09:30 CET

Another five waves down have been made in this pair. According to the main wave count, it can be a beginning of a third wave. On the other hand, there is possibility, that green wave (iv) has been a little more extended to the upside and the last leg down is green wave (v) of red wave 1. This would mean, that the market is now in a corrective cycle and a bullish divergence supports this view. To confirm further gains, the market must breakout of the range zone and trade above the level of 136.26. The target in that case would be a golden trendline test.

Support/Resistance:

135.66 - WS3

135.83 - Intraday Support

136.15 - WS2

136.26 - Intraday Resistance

137.04 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

As long as the price is trading below the level of 136.26, sell orders should be considered to open, with tight SL above the level of 136.26 and TP at the level of 135.66 with a possible downside extension.

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#USDX Technical analysis for August 8, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index is showing signs of weakness and of a possible downward reversal. There are increased chances that the move from 79.75 is complete and we should now expect Dollar weakness to push the index lower. In the short-term chart shown below, we observe that the trend might have changed to downward since price is making lower lows and lower highs since it peaked at 81.73(right on my intermediate target).

Price is still inside the short-term upward sloping channel. Price is testing the Ichimoku cloud support. The pattern from the lows at 79.75 is most probably a complete 5 wave impulsive move. So, a pull back is justified from current levels. The initial signs for a reversal are there, but technically the Dollar index has not given a sell signal yet. This short-term sell signal will come once price breaks below the Ichimoku cloud and below the upward sloping channel.

In the daily chart, we see that the Dollar index has hit the upper boundaries of the longer-term channel and this is a good opportunity for a top. If the Dollar index breaks below 81.30 we should have a sell signal to go neutral as the trend will have changed. Support is found at 81-80.85 area (the previous highs area) and at 80.50 (the upward sloping blue trend line). I have turned neutral on the Dollar index. My price target of 81.75 that I've been talking about for some time has been met and I now prefer to stay neutral and wait.

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Gold Wave analysis for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Gold price continues higher as expected after breaking above the downward sloping wedge and above the resistance level of $1,305. The trend is up and the pattern has an impulsive form. Price is expected to continue higher towards at least $1,350 where the triangle resistance is found.

In the 4 hour chart above, you can see how strong the upward breakout is and why I changed my short-term view from bearish to bullish. Gold price bounced off the 61.8% retracement and is moving higher in an impulsive manner. If this upward move will be equal to the previous upward move from $1,240, we should expect Gold price to reach $1,380-90.

In the daily chart above, I have posted my two preferred elliott wave counts. The bearish Elliott wave count is with blue and the bullish is with red. The blue elliott wave count assumes that we are still inside a sideways triangle wave 4 and that wave B of E was completed at $1.280. We are now in the final wave C of E of 4 targeting the upper triangle boundaries near $1.350-60. The triangle pattern is canceled if price breaks above $1,390. The bullish red wave count assumes that the low at $1,180 was the end of the big decline that started from above $1,900. We have begun a new upward move and we have experienced already 2 wave couples of wave 1 and 2 as shown with red. For this scenario to become stronger, we need to break above $1,350 first and $1,390.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5868

R2: 1.5846

R3: 1.5838

Current spot: 1.5817

S1: 1.5802

S2: 1.5787

S3: 1.5768

Technical summary:

Once again, the correction from 1.5867 became slightly deeper than expected, but this is not uncommon in the beginning of a new impulsive trend. Nothing has changed in the bigger picture and it should just be a question of time before the next impulsive rally takes out resistance at 1.5867 for a rally to at least 1.5900 and likely even higher to 1.6200.

Short-term support will be found at 1.5802, which ideally will protect the downside for the break above 1.5867 confirming that the next impulsive rally is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5710. We will move our stop higher to 1.5725. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5802 with the same stop at 1.5725.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 8, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 136.95

R2: 136.46

R1: 136.07

Current spot: 136.02

S1: 135.73

S2: 135.49

S3: 135.00

Technical summary:

Our target of 135.49 is now in sight. The decline from 138.00 has unfolded as a textbook impulsive wave. All we need now is a perfect test of the 135.49 target to end wave iii and set-up the stage for a correction in wave iv back to 138.00 (the top of wave four of a less degree is a very common target, especially when we are dealing with a wave doing self-correction).

In a short term, we will find minor resistance at 136.07, which ideally will protect the upside for the final decline to 135.49. But only a break above 136.46 will indicate that wave iv is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 138.00 and will move our stop + reverse down to 136.50 and we will place take profit+reverse at 135.65. Use the same targets to enter a small long EUR position.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 08, 2014 Trend News

The pair hit the parallel support at 136.21 in early Asia's session. Currently the pair is trading at 136.02. The pair was rejected at 20DSma. For an hourly trading view, the pair has support at 135.70 (138 fib level) below this, 135.35 will come. In the H4 chart, the RSI is indicating an oversold zone. On the north side, it has resistance at 136.16-136.20, 136.31 and 136.45 levels. Until the prices close below 137.30, bears will have an upper hand. If today, the pair closes below 136.20, next week easily we can see 134 levels.

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Intraday analysis of USD/CAD for August 08, 2014 Trend News

In yesterday's session, the pair took support at 1.09 levels and again flew to 1.0938 levels. Today in Asia's session, the pair opened with the support of yesterday's closing rate and is looking a bit strong enough. But on a broader picture, we recommend buying only above 1.0960 levels. The trading pattern is framed between 1.0960-1.09. On the down side, if it hits the support, it can extend its fall up to 1.0877 and 1.08520. In the daily chart, the Stochstics is indicating a sell signal. Risky traders can sell with sl 1.0960 on a daily closing basis.

Intraday cmp 1.0942

The prices are closing above the key hourly moving averages. We recommend selling either at cmp or below 1.0927 levels for a target at 1.0911 and 1.09. The pair will face selling pressure below 1.09 towards 1.0885, 1.0877 and 1.08 levels.

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Technical analysis of Gold for August 08, 2014 Trend News

In today's Asian session, gold is trading at the strong support 200DEma at $1,309, as of now the metal made a low at $1,308.40. The metal is trading at a week's high. We initially recommended to buy gold at $1,291, later at $1,312 and again at the current market price at $1,309.50. We are recommending buying gold for a target at $1,315, $1,318, $1,320 and even $1,324 levels. It favors further upside, the strong 2 consecutive days close made gold strong in the near term.

Daily/Weekly close above $1,296, near term tutns to positive (August)- Done

A daily close above $1,309.50 (200DEma), a weekly trend turns to positive- Done

Short-term upside reversal is only above $1,324.50- Pending

If the metal manages to breach the $1,324.50 level, we can see huge upside potential towards $1,330, $1,344 and $1,360 levels.

Intraday cmp $1,309.50

The metal prices are trading and closed above the intra week key support levels. Until the prices close above $1,294 , the uptrend still continues towards $1,318-$1,319.50 and $1,324 initially, later $1,330-$1,332 levels.

Support $1,301 $1,298.50 $1,294.50

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