Friday 1 August 2014

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate. NZD/USD is undermined by the increasing risk aversion, the positive dollar sentiment, weak dairy prices and continued impact from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Gov. Wheeler's comment last week that the Kiwi's strength is "unjustified and unsustainable" and hint of a pause in the RBNZ's rate-tightening cycle. But NZD/USD downside is limited by the NZD-USD interest differential and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics is staying suppressed in the oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8560 and the second target at 0.8585. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8430. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.84. The pivot point is at 0.8460.


Resistance levels:

0.8560

0.8585

0.8620


Support levels:

0.8430

0.84

0.8375


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 1, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower rande. Financial markets in Switzerland were shut today for the bank holiday. USD/CHF is supported by the positive dollar sentiment and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF upside is limited by the flows to haven CHF amid increasing risk aversion, franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9025. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9. The pivot point stands at 0.9095. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9110 and the second target at 0.9130.


Resistance levels:

0.9110

0.9130

0.9155



Support levels:


0.9025

0.9

0.8975


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

USDJPYM30.png


Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower. USD/JPY is undermined by selling of yen crosses amid increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge surged 27.16% to 16.95, S&P 500 tumbled 2.0% to close at 1,930.67 overnight) amid worries that interest rates might rise sooner than expected after Wednesday's strong U.S. 2Q GDP report, fears of contagion on emerging markets from Argentina's debt default. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.46 versus 81.42 early Thursday) as Wednesday's strong U.S. 2Q GDP data continue to impact; positions adjustment before the weekend. U.S. data overnight were mixed as higher-than-expected +0.7% rise in U.S. 2Q employment cost index (versus forecast +0.5%) and less-than-expected 302,000 U.S. jobless claims for the week ended July 26 (versus forecast 305,000) offset surprise drop in U.S. ISM-Chicago PMI to one-year low of 52.6 in July from 62.6 in June (versus forecast for rise to 63.0).


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish in the overbought zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 102.40. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 102.15. The pivot point stands at 103. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.15 and the second target at 103.40.


Resistance levels:

103.15

103.40

103.75


Support levels:

102.40

102.15

101.85


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

GBPJPYM30.png


Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish a bias. GBP/JPY is undermined by the increased risk aversion and Japan's export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in a bullish mode, five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.70. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 172.45. The pivot point stands at 173.25. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.75 and the second target at 174.20.


Resistance levels:

173.75

174.20

174.55



Support levels:
172.70

172.40

172


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 1, 2014 Trend News

2014-08-01-EURNZD-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.5900


R2: 1.5868


R1: 1.5845


Current spot: 1.5825


S1: 1.5795


S2: 1.5774


S3: 1.5756


Technical summary:


We've reached a new high at 1.5825 where we should expect a continuation higher to the next extension target at 1.5900 and maybe even higher. Short-term minor support at 1.5795 ideally will protect the downside for the rally higher to 1.5900. In the longer term, we are looking for much higher levels closer to 1.6205 and higher.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5525 and will move stop higher to 1.5750. If you are not long in EUR yet, then but EUR near 1.5795 with the same stop at 1.5750.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

2014-08-01-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 138.44


R2: 138.11


R1: 138.05


Current spot: 137.91


S1: 137.72


S2: 137.56


S3: 137.25


Technical summary:


Red wave iv is still unfolding, but it should still stop next to resistance at 138.05, from where a new strong decline to 135.49 is expected. In the longer term, we are still looking for a decline to the equality target at 134.34, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A. At this point, only a break above 138.11 will invalidate the bearish scenario. At 138.12, red wave iv will overlap red wave i, which in not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle.


Trading recommendation:


We will sell EUR at 138.00 or upon a break below support at 137.73 with stop placed at 138.25.


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#USDX Technical analysis for August 1, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in an uptrend that started at 79.75. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart as shown below and the price is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term support is found at 81.40. If broken, it can fall towards 81.25. Short-term resistance is at 81.60. Breaking above it will push the index closer to our 81.75 target.


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In the daily chart as shown below, we clearly see that the trend remains bullish and the price is still inside the upward sloping channel. The price is also above the Ichimoku cloud and getting closer to our target of 81.75. A pullback towards 81 cannot be ruled out. This would be a buy opportunity.


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The upward move that started at 79.75 is not complete yet. Even if we see a strong pullback towards 81, we should see after that a new higher high maybe towards 82.


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Gold Technical analysis for August 1, 2014 Trend News

The Gold price is currently trading below the previous low at $1,287.50. The trend is down as the price is making lower lows and lower highs. In our previous analysis, I mentioned how important it was for bulls to hold above $1,287.50 and break above $1,313 in order to move towards $1,325-50. On the other hand, our preferred bearish scenario would be confirmed if the price broke below $1,287.5. This is what happened and our bearish scenario remains strong.


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The Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud resistance at $1,300 and has made a new lower low at $1,280.50. Currently, it is forming a bearish flag that we expect to see if broken downwards. If the price breaks below $1,280, I expect to see the Gold price move towards $1,270 at least.


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The daily chart is not good for bulls either. The Gold price after a long time has broken below the Ichimoku cloud and this is a sign of further weakness. Our preferred scenario for some time now has been the one where wave E of wave 4 was complete at $1,346 and a new downward move has started with $1,000 as the first target. A break below the upward sloping red trend line at $1,260-70 will increase the chances of this bearish scenario.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 1, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 01/08/2014 09:30 CET


Not much has changed in this pair since yesterday as green wave (iv) is still developing. When the corrective cycle is completed, one more wave to the upside is needed to finish the higher degree cycle. Breakout below the intraday support at the level of 137.33 invalidates this view.




Support/Resistance:


138.19 - WR3


138.02 - 138.08 - Wave (v) Target Zone


137.84 - Intraday Resistance


137.76 - WR2


137.49 - 137.62 - Technical Support


137.33 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


Day traders should consider opening buy positions from the current price levels with SL below the level of 137.49 and TP at the level of 138.02 with a possible extension to 138.19.


eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 1, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 01/08/2014 09:30 CET


The outlook has been adjusted slightly to black wave iv correction but the overall scenario hasn't been changed. The market has made another marginal high in black wave v. Now, the anticipated bigger corrective cycle should begin. This view is supported by the multiple bearish divergence that has been formed on the momentum oscillator. Breakout below the intraday support at the level of 1.0878 is the first confirmation, that top for green wave (v) is in place.


Support/Resistance:


1.0979 - WR3


1.0956 - Technical Resistance


1.0928 - Intraday Resistance


1.0901 - WR2


1.0878 - Intraday Support


1.0868 - WR1


1.0821 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


Short orders should be opened only if the level of 1.0878 is clearly broken, with SL above the level of the recent swing high and TP at the level of 1.0821.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for August 1, 2014 Trend News

gbpusdh4.png


Overview :



  • The price of the GBP/USD pair has been not stable because the trend has been moving downwards from the price of 1.6940 in H4 chart. Additionally, the pair is going to be trapped between 1.6940 and 1.6851. Furthermore, it should be noted that the resistance has already set at the price of 1.6940 and the support is placed at 1.6851 (minor support on August 1, 2014). As a result, the GBP/USD pair is likely to start showing the signs of the bearish market at the level of 1.6940 because the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.6940, so the level will be acting as strong resistance today. In other words, it will be a good decision to sell below the price of 1.6940 with the first target of 1.6850 in order to try to close below the weekly pivot point. It will call for the downtrend to continue its bearish movement towards 1.6821 to forming the strong support in H4 chart. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above 1.6966.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 1, 2014 Trend News

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Trading recommendations :



  • The support of the EUR/USD pair has already set at 1.3330 on August 14, 2014. Furthermore, it will be very profitable to buy above this level for retesting this level in the short term. Therefore, buy deals are recommended above the weekly support with targets at 1.3433 (the level of 1.3838 is representing the daily pivot point) and 1.3460 to reach the double top. On the contrary, the resistance is going to set at the level of 1.3460 today. Consequently, the descending movement will probably be lower than the 1.3460 level with the targets at 1.3333 and it is going to drop towards the double bottom around the price of 1.3295 in the daily chart.


It should note the following important observations:



  • The market is going to call for a downtrend.

  • The double top will set at the level of 1.3460.

  • The minor support is going to set at 1.3333.

  • The major support has already set at the price of 1.3303. But the double bottom does not coincide with the major support because it has set at the 1.325 price.

  • The price hit the weekly pivot point this week and the first support. Currently, it has been around it since April 14, because of the series of relatively equal highs and equal lows.

  • We expect a range about 68 pips today.


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