Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 9, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• According to previous events, the price of NZD/USD pair is still moving between 50% of Fibonacci retracement and 100% in the H1 chart. So, these ratios will coincide with the levels of 0.7510 and 0.7629 respectively. You should note that the double top is at 0.7629. The support has been already placed at 0.7510. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7510 with the first target at 0.7577 in order to test the weekly pivot point, it might resume to 0.7601 today. In case the market is able to break the second target at 0.7601, the NZD/USD pair will continue to move toward the double top at 0.7629. It is going to be quite safe to set the stop loss at the level of 0.7470. Also, it should be noted that support 1 is set at 0.7582.

Intraday technical levels :

Date: 09/04/2015

Pair: NZD/USD

• R3: 0.7721


• R2: 0.7663


• R1: 0.7606


• PP: 0.7548


• S1: 0.7491


• S2: 0.7433


• S3: 0.7376

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 9, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

The major support of the USD/CHF pair has been already set at the level of 0.9480 (double bottom) and minor support is seen at 0.9558. Equally important, the price of 0.9558 coincides with the ratio of 11.8% Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 chart. On the other hand, the double top has been placed at 0.9755; and the first resistance is seen at 0.9727 (38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels). Additionally, according to the previous events, the price is likely to move between 0.9558 and 0.9727. In addition, we expect a range of 169 pips this week. It should be noted that the trend is ascending from the support level of 0.9558. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.9558, providing a clear signal for buy deals with targets at 0.9666. It might resume to 0.9727 if the trend is able to break the first target. Anywise, stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, for that the stop loss should be placed above the double top at the 0.8460 level.

Observations :

• Supports: 0.9480 and 0.9558.


• Resistance: 0.9730.


• If the trend is buoyant, then the currency strengthing will be defined as following: USD is in the uptrend and CHF is in the downtrend.

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EUR/NZD : analysis for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.4253 in a high volume. Since the price has broken our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% (1.4380), we saw downward movement. Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1.4285 is tested now. If the price breaks the level of 1.4285 in a high volume, we may it testing the level of 1.4130 (swing low like support). Be careful when buying since we are in short-term bearish trend. Watch for selling opportunities after retracements.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4514ed

R2: 1.4554

R3: 1.4618

Support levels:

S1: 1.4386

S2: 1.4346

S3: 1.4282

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold : analysis for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of $1,197.32 in a high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a supply in a volume above the average. Our support level at $1,207.00 got broken, so be careful when buying gold. Major Fibonacci retracement 38.2% (support) is around $1,194.00. Fibonacci retramcent 61.8% (support) is around $1,174.00. The short-term trend is bearish.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels :

R1: 1,214.54

R2: 1,216.52

R3: 1,219.47

Support levels :

S1: 1,208.12

S2: 1,206.15

S3: 1,202.93

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage since we got support broken. Sell after retracmeents.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The market has previously established a consolidation zone around 1.5000, which extended up to 1.5280. This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel.

Bulls managed to push the price towards higher levels, including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level) where significant bearish pressure was applied resulting in the formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily candlesticks.

Then, strong bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (weekly low). A significant bullish weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week.

As expected, the price zone around 1.4960-1.5000 provided evident supply at retesting that took place yesterday. This price zone corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci level as well as a previous broken weekly demand, which goes back to January 2015.

Transient sideways movement with slight bearish tendency is still being expressed on the daily chart. This was quickly followed by Monday's daily Shooting-Star candlestick at the levels of 1.5000.

Note that daily persistence above the price level of 1.5090 (50% Fibonacci level) is needed to confirm the 123 bullish reversal pattern (as well as the recent ascending bottom).

Previous demand zone around 1.4960-1.5000 was breached three weeks ago resulting in a quick bearish decline towards 1.4700.

Evident bullish recovery was manifested on the H4 chart near the price level of 1.4700 (weekly low).

As mentioned before, fixation above 1.4700-1.4720 enhances further bullish visits towards 1.5000.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to trade above the level of 1.4970 as a flag pattern has been expressed since the levels of 1.4970-1.5000 were initially visited.

Conservative traders should note that the GBP/USD pair remains trapped between 1.4700 and 1.4970 until a breakout occurs in either direction (bullish breakout would be less risky).

A daily breakout above the level of 1.5090 (50% Fibonacci level) is needed to confirm the 123 bullish reversal pattern as well as the depicted Flag pattern.

Estimated bullish targets would be projected towards 1.5150, then 1.5350.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The market was aggressively pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level around 1.0550 (established on January 1997) where bullish rejection was applied for retesting.

The recent monthly closure remains negative for the EUR/USD pair in the long term.

Bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should be anticipated as theoretical long-term targets are projected around 0.9450.

Obvious bearish breakout of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.

Full projection targets for the Flag pattern were successfully reached around 1.0800 and 1.0500.

As we anticipated, after such a long bearish rally (which started off 1.1300) bullish rejection was around 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

The daily persistence above 1.0850-1.0860 (recent uptrend line and previous demand level) is mandatory to maintain the bullish corrective movement towards 1.1100 where a long-term sell position can be offered.

On the other hand, in case of fixation below the level of 1.0850 (currently being tested), the EUR/USD pair is likely to move back towards 1.0650-1.0600 (weekly low).

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending channel was established at the levels of 1.5170-1.5200. This indicates bullish sentiment on the market.

A projected target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (solid resistance).

Three weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as bearish.

Significant bearish pressure was applied over the price levels of 1.5200 (R2), and 1.4950 (R1 = broken weekly bottom).

Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.

Recently, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630 resulting in the formation of a double-bottom reversal pattern.

Fixation above 1.4980-1.5000 (neck-line = R1) is likely to extend the pattern's projection target towards 1.5200.

Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair remains in the long-term downtrend as depicted on both the daily and weekly charts. If so, bearish breakdown of 1.4700 is needed to resume this bearish scenario.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for enough bullish momentum to express H4 closure above 1.5000 looking for a short-term BUY entry.

TP levels should be set at 1.5080, 1.5120, and finally at 1.5200.

SL should be set as daily closure below 1.4900.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending channel was established at the levels of 1.5170-1.5200. This indicates bullish sentiment on the market.

A projected target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (solid resistance).

Three weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as bearish.

Significant bearish pressure was applied over the price levels of 1.5200 (R2), and 1.4950 (R1 = broken weekly bottom).

Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.

Recently, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630 resulting in the formation of a double-bottom reversal pattern.

Fixation above 1.4980-1.5000 (neck-line = R1) is likely to extend the pattern's projection target towards 1.5200.

Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair remains in the long-term downtrend as depicted on both the daily and weekly charts. If so, bearish breakdown of 1.4700 is needed to resume this bearish scenario.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for enough bullish momentum to express H4 closure above 1.5000 looking for a short-term BUY entry.

TP levels should be set at 1.5080, 1.5120, and finally at 1.5200.

SL should be set as daily closure below 1.4900.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought.

However, bullish pressure is still expressed as the previous weekly closure came above 1.2550 (consolidation zone mid-line).

Successive lower highs were established within the wedge pattern. However, the market expressed a bullish breakout above 1.2550-1.2600 shortly after.

The market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a double-top pattern that calls for confirmation (daily closure below 1.2350).

On the other hand, the support level around 1.2350 (lower limit of the wedge pattern) and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) have been providing support for successive weeks on the daily and weekly charts.

In the long term, a projected target for the USD/CAD wedge pattern would be located near the level of 1.3050 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).

The recent weekly candlestick indicates bearish rejection at retesting of the weekly resistance at 1.3000 (a Shooting-Star weekly candlestick around the upper limit of the consolidation zone).

On a daily basis, as long as the USD/CAD pair keeps trading below 1.2550 (Intraday support level), a quick bearish decline towards 1.2350 should be expected (significant Fibonacci level and the lower limit of the wedge pattern).

Trading recommendations:

The price level of 1.2550 is likely to offer a valid sell entry with T/P at 1.2350.

S/L should be set as DAILY closure above 1.2560 again.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The index continues to develop a corrective structure on the daily chart, as price action is currently showing us a consolidation above the key level of 96.60. It's expected to rise to the resistance level of 98.01, where the USDX could try another breakout in order to follow the bullish bias. Be cautious, as the index could do a pullback on the way.

During the yesterday session, the USDX had a strong bullish momentum until the resistance zone of 98.00, but the index faced a strong selling pressure there and did a pullback. For now, it's trading below the 200 SMAagain. This could be an indication of a bearish consolidation in the short term, as the USDX is likely to find dynamic resistance on that moving average.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12

Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.19

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.75 / 98.00

H1 chart's support levels: 97.30 / 97.08

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.75, take profit is at 98.00, and stop loss is at 97.50.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The break below support at 1.4368 was unexpected; and it changes at least the short-term outlook for this cross. The rally of the low of 1.4128 could be described as a leading diagonal and if this is the case, support should soon be found for a break above minor resistance at 1.4461 and, more importantly, a break above resistance at 1.4547 confirming renewed upside pressure. However, the risk is a break below the 1.4128 bottom, that will call for a recount of the decline from 1.5821 and a move closer to 1.4048 before the bottom will be, most likely, in place.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.4355 was hit for a little but nice profit. We will only buy EUR at a break above 1.4461 (say at 1.4470).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The decline in wave C of the wave 2 is well advanced and it will be a matter of time when wave 2 terminates and a new impulsive rally can be expected. The only question is whether the bottom of wave 2 already has been found at 126.87 or whether we still need one final decline closer to the ideal 38.2% corrective target at 125.98 before wave 2 terminates. It all comes down to resistance at 131.74 as long as this resistance is able to protect the upside. One final decline closer to 125.98 can not be excluded, while a break above 131.74 will confirm that a bottom was found prematurely at 126.87 and wave 3 to above 149.55 is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We will stay neutral for now and place a EUR buy-order at 126.25 or at 131.85 (a closed order cancels the other one).

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The GBP/USD pair is still trapped on the bearish range established between the levels of 1.4948 and 1.4820. Also, the pair is forming a lower low pattern, so we could expect more downside moves in the medium and long terms. By the way, a correction move above the resistance zone at 1.4948 is still expected. The MACD indicator is at positive territory.

In the intraday view, GBP/USD moved above the 200 SMA. Now, it's consolidaing above the support level at 1.4921 and looking to reach the resistance zone of 1.4968. That level is very strong and there could be a pullback on the road, as the pair is trying to ride the overall bearish trend.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4948 / 1.5086

Dailychart's support levels: 1.4820 / 1.4649

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4921 / 1.4968

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4921 / 1.4842

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4921, take profit is at 1.4842, and stop loss is at 1.4999.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• Today, the GBP/USD pair is going to turn to bullish sentiment from the level of 1.4867. You have to note that the level of 1.4867 represents strong support because this level was resistance and turned to support. Additionally, the price of 1.4867 is coinciding with the 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels. It is likely to be a good sign to buy above 1.4867 with the first target at 1.1964 to test minor resistance. Also, it will call for uptrend in order to continue its bullish movement towards 1.4994 (it should be noticed that the price of 1.4994 is representing the double top). Resistance will be set at the level of 1.4990. So, it is going to be very useful to take profit at this spot. At the same time, the stop loss should be placed below the double bottom at 1.4841. Furthermore, we expect that the range to get about 162 pips. The stop loss has been set in 54 pips. Consequently, the risk of 54 pips should make a profit of 162 pips.

Obseravtions :

• The double top will set at the level of 1.4994.


• The minor support is going to set at 1.4897. And this level is going to represent the daily pivot point on April 08, 2015.


• The major support had been already set at 1.4867. Moreover, the double bottom is also coinciding with the major support.


• The price hit the weekly pivot point and the support 1 last week, because of the series of relatively equal highs and equal lows.


• We expect a range of 310 pips this week.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The market of the EUR/USD pair has opened above daily support at 1.0842 today. The support has been already set at the level of 1.0840, which represents astrong level. Additionally, the double bottom is also coinciding with the same price in the H1 chart. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair reached the weekly pivot point yesterday and today the price is still around it. Hence, the trend was sideways and the range widened up to 82 pips. According to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair has still been moving between the level of 1.0835 and 1.0922. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.0922 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels) represents stong resistance in the same time frame. Therefore, it will be advantageous to sell at the price of 1.0922 with the first target at 1.0866 (the level of 1.0866 is going to represent minor support). It may resume to 1.0840. Moreover, if the price is able to break 1.0840, the market is likely to call for a strong bearish pressure below 1.0840. Stop loss should always be in account. It seems to be wise to set the stop loss above the weekly resistance 1 at the level of 1.0938.

Technical levels for April 08, 2014 .

• Projected high: 1.1003


• Breakout (buy stop): 1.0938


• Strong resistance (sell limit): 1.0922


• Current pivot: 1.0866


• Strong support (buy limit): 1.0840


• Breakout (sell stop): 1.0830

Projected low: 1.0792

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 08/04/2015 11:10 CET

The impulsive wave progression to the upside looks rather muted so far, but the first impulsive structure in shape of a leading diagonal might be labeled on this H1 chart in line with the corrective cycle for wave (ii) green. Currently the most important level is the invalidation line at the level of 1.2432 (intraday support) and another invalidation line at the level of 1.2411.Any break out lower would invalidate and bullish scenarios and make the corrective cycle more complex and time-consuming.

Support/Resistance:

1.2411 - Invalidation Level

1.2432 - Intraday Support

1.2523 - Intraday Resistance

1.2556 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should still consider to open buy orders or add to the long positions with the SL below the level of 1.2410 and TP open for now. This trade might evolve into a swing trade later on.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 08/04/2015 11:00 CET

The corrective cycle in wave (b) blue does not looks completed yet as the impulsive wave progression to the upside looks rather muted now. This is why the supply zone between the levels of 130.79 - 130.61 should be watched, because breakout higher is the first clue that a low for wave y black is in place at the level of 129.90. In case of failure in this zone, the next possible scenario is a deeper retracement in form of a triple three pattern that might reach the 61% Fibo at the level of 129.51 and bounce/reverse from there. There is still one more uncompleted wave to the upside - wave (c) blue and the near-term bias is bullish.

Support/Resistance:

129.51 - 61%Fibo

129.90 - Wave y Low

130.61 - 130.79 - Supply Zone

131.30 - Swing High

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should still consider openning buy orders or adding to long positions if the level of 130.79 is violated with h1 candle close above it. SL should be placed at the level of 129.89 and TP at the level of 131.30.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a two-week high of 120.45 on Tuesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.91 versus 97.07 early Tuesday) as more-than-expected 5.133 million US February job openings (versus forecast 5.01 million), a rise in US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 51.3 in April from 49.1 in March, and larger-than-expected $15.52 billion increase in US February consumer credit (versus forecast +$12.0 billion) bolster belief that last Friday's weak US March non-farm payrolls report was an aberration and that the US economy will regain momentum after the first quarter. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and selling of the yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.27% to 14.78, S&P 500 closed 0.21% lower at 2,076.33 overnight).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is in bearish mode but stochastics is neutral, a five-day moving average is meandering sideways below a declining 15-day moving average.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.35 and the second target at 120.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.35. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 117.60. The pivot point is at 119.05.

Resistance levels:

120.45

120.90

121.35

Support levels:

118.50

118

117.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.91 versus 97.07 early Tuesday) as more-than-expected 5.133 million US February job openings (versus forecast 5.01 million), a rise in the US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 51.3 in April from 49.1 in March, and larger-than-expected $15.52 billion increase in US February consumer credit (versus forecast +$12.0 billion) bolster belief that last Friday's weak US March non-farm payrolls report was an aberration and that the US economy will regain momentum after the first quarter, negative Swiss interest rates and threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9675 and the second target at 0.9750. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9490. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9445. The pivot point is at 0.7550.

Resistance levels:

0.9675

0.9750

0.9835

Support levels:

0.9490

0.9445

0.94

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.91 versus 97.07 early Tuesday) as more-than-expected 5.133 million US job openings in February (versus forecast of 5.01 million), a rise in the US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 51.3 in April from 49.1 in March, and larger-than-expected $15.52 billion increase in the US February consumer credit (versus forecast +$12.0 billion) bolster belief that last Friday's weak US March non-farm payrolls report was an aberration and that the US economy will regain momentum after the first quarter, subdued investor risk appetite, weak dairy prices and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is turning bearish, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7620 and the second target at 0.7665. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7460. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7420. The pivot point is at 0.7510.

Resistance levels:

0.7620

0.7665

0.7695

Support levels:

0.7460

0.7420

0.7375

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by strong GBP/USD undertone, diminished investor risk appetite, and Japan exporter sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers. Sterling sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected UK March CIPS / Markit services PMI of 58.9 (versus forecast 57.0).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish but stochastics is turning bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 178.70 and the second target at 179.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.60. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 177.20. The pivot point is at 177.90.

Resistance levels:

178.70

179.20

180.45

Support levels:
177.60

177.20

176.65

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#USDX technical analysis for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has been continuing its upward move since the Monday gap down that held above support at 96.20. Now, the Dollar index has reached the resistance that bulls need to break in order for the upward move to resume. Important resistance is closed and bulls should be very cautious as we could see a rejection from the current levels.

Red line = support

Green line = resistance

The Dollar index has reached the green line resistance and the Ichimoku cloud. It seems that the short-term upward move has finished and the resistance remains firm and not broken. Bulls will need to break above 98.2-98.50 in order for 96 to be considered an intermediate-term low.

Orange line= bullish channel

The Dollar index remains inside the upward sloping orange channel and the price has moved back above the tenkan-sen indicator. Important to see how this week closes as we are still in the middle of it. Bulls continue to control the longer-term trend.

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Gold technical analysis for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price got rejected at $1,222 and the fake breakout produced a short-term pullback towards the first short-term support kine at $1,200. Bulls still remain confident since support at $1,200 was held. A weekly close above $1,222 will signal that a move towards $1,250-70 is expected.

Blue line = resistance

Red line = support

Gold price remains between two important levels of $1,180 and $1,222. The price tried to advance above $1,222 on Monday but the breakout turned to be fake. Gold price reversed towards short-term support at $1,210-$1,200. The price is above the Ichimoku cloud. Bulls are in control of the short-term trend as long as the price is above $1,190.

The weekly chart is still looking bearish if the week closes like this. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the kijun-sen yellow line. This week is crucial for the medium-term trend. My longer-term view remains bearish with $1,000 as target.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for April 8, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: This pair trended downwards yesterday. However, it would not be logical to go short right now unless the support lines at 1.0750 and 1.0700 are breached to the downside, while the price closes below them. There is also a possibility that the price may rally.

USD/CHF: Despite the current near-term rally on this pair, the bearish outlook is still intact. The only thing that can render the bearish outlook ineffectual is an occasion in which the price goes above the resistance levels at 0.9700 and 0.9750.

GBP/USD: The situation on the cable currently looks dicey. It would be OK to stay away from this market until the price crosses above the distribution territory at 1.4950 leading to a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern, or until the price crosses below the accumulation territory at 1.4750 leading to a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is making some visible attempt to go north, while bears are trying to frustrate the attempt. There is a buy signal in the market now and the signal would be valid as long as the price stays above the demand levels at 119.50 and 119.00. Any movement below the demand levels would result in invalidation of the buy signal.

EUR/JPY: There are lots of uncertainties about this cross as well – the EMA 11 is above the EMA 56. However, the RSI period 14 is below the level of 50. These are clearly conflicting signals. We would need to expect a directional movement, which would probably favor bears.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of EUR/USD for April 08, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Spanish services PMI –The Spanish services PMI gave traders an optimistic impression about the economy. The end of the first quarter in 2015 saw a further sharp expansion in business activity at Spanish service providers linked to the strongest rise in new business since July 2000. The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index rose to 57.3 in March from 56.2 in the previous month to signal a sharp increase in service sector output. That was the strongest one since last August.

Italy services PMI – It represents a slight upturn in the services sector. There was a positive end to the opening quarter for Italian services firms, with March survey data pointing to a growth of business activity and incoming new work in the tertiary sector. The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/ADACI Business Activity Index climbed to 51.6 in March from 50.0 in February, signaling growth for the second time in three months.

Upcoming events:

Today US FOMC meeting minutes will dominate the trade. German factory orders and Retail sales data are due for release today. Euro retail sales data provided positive readings for consecutive 3 months. This time, we expect positive readings from German factory data and retail sales as well. Eventually, US data will be dominated. Everybody is waiting for that.

Technical view:

At yesterday's session, the pair edged lower and was testing the 1.0800 support 20Dsma, which is likely to be critical to hold if bulls want to retest a high of 1.1050. The pair edged lower after testing the 1.1036 time frames look negative for the pair, with a possible double top pattern forming on four-hour charts, with tops around 1.1055. The support of this pattern stands at 1.0800 and if it gets broken, the pair is going to target 1.0700, which was the trend-change status. New swing highs above 1.1055 should be made to cancel this formation. In case the price fell below 1. 0700, the current short uptrend will be erased. The trading pattern is framed between 1.0700 and 1.1055. Any close is likely to add or lose 150 pips immediately. Until the pair closes above 1.0700, bulls hope to print 1.1300. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0895 and 1.0910. Support is found at 1.0800 and 1.0700. In case the price closes below 1.0700, fresh new lows are likely to be made. We recommend selling below 1.0800 with targets at 1.0750 and 1.0715. Panic will be created below 1.0700 towards a new fresh low. In case the FOMC meeting minutes released pessimistic view, buy above 1.0920 with targets at 1.1000, 1.1030, and 1.1050. Big upswing looms above 1.1055.

Trade:

Selling below 1.0800, panic below 1.0700

Buying above 1.0920

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