Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 15 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The correction in blue wave iv entered the resistance area between 1.5330 - 1.5350 before turning lower again. We will now be looking for a break below support at 1.5175 to confirm that blue wave iv ended at 1.5331 and blue wave v lower to 1.4970 is developing. In the short term, we should ideally see minor resistance at 1.5228 protect the upside for a break below support at 1.5175 confirming the next decline towards 1.4970. Only an unexpected break above resistance at 1.5287 will delay the expected decline in blue wave v.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 1.5320 and will move stop lower to 1.5340. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 1.5175 with a stop at 1.5290.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The correction in wave (ii) has been much deeper than first expected, but even though the pitchfork support line was pierced shortly, prices quickly went back into the pitchfork. It could be the first good indication, that wave (ii) is over at 137.00. We will be looking for a break above the resistance line at 138.90 as confirmation that a low is indeed in place and a new strong rally higher is evolving. It will take an unexpected break below 137.00 to invalidate the bullish count.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 137.85 was hit and we are now looking for a new EUR buying opportunity. We will buy EUR at 137.90 with a stop at 136.95

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 15, 2015 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the PPI y/y and Core Machinery Orders m/m. Besides, the US will publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, and PPI m/m. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 118.33.

Resistance. 2: 118.10.

Resistance. 1: 117.88.

Support. 1: 117.59.

Support. 2: 117.36.

Support. 3: 117.13.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 15, 2015 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Trade Balance. The US will release the economic data too such as the Natural Gas Storage, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, and PPI m/m. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1832.

Strong Resistance:1.1825.

Original Resistance: 1.1813.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1801.

Target Inner Area: 1.1774.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1746.

Original Support: 1.1734.

Strong Support: 1.1722.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1715.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for January 15, 2014 Market Analysis Review

At the daily chart, the USDX had no sudden movements and fulfilled an impending trend change. However, the USDX still remains alive in our bullish oulook. Therefore, our next target on the upside road remains at the resistance level of 93.44, which is a level that could be reached easily, due to few obstacles on the upside road.

Dailychart's resistance levels: 93.44 / 96.60

Dailychart's support levels: 91.62 / 90.40

The USDX is attempting a breakout at the level of 92.08 after conducting a rebound on the 200-day moving average on the H1 chart. If the USDX manages to consolidate above the level of 92.08, it would be expected to reach the level of 92.51 in the short term, although this instrument is kept moving in a low volume territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 92.08 / 92.51

H1 chart's support levels: 91.66 / 91.24

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 92.08, take profit is at 92.51, and stop loss is at 91.66.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The GBP/USD pair remains alive in the bearish trend on the daily chart, although this pair continues to make a bullish retracement. However, GBP/USD might find storng resistance at the level of 1.5266. If this pair makes a pullback at that level, the next target would be the support level of 1.5159. The MACD indicator is entering the neutral territory.

Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5266 / 1.5407

Dailychart's support levels: 1.5159 / 1.5015

On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair is forming a bullish pattern above the 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, this pair is preparing to try to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.5249. However, as we had mentioned earlier, the GBP/USD pair could resume bearish bias and fall to the level of 1.5146. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5249 / 1.5295

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5198 / 1.5146

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5198, take profit is at 1.5146, and stop loss is at 1.5249.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for January 15, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: Here, the outlook remains bearish – though the price is currently consolidating. The price may go below the support line at 1.1750; in case the expectation fails, a strong rally may begin from here.

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument remains bullish. The price is above the EMA 11, which in turn is above the EMA 56. The RSI period 14 is above the level 50, meaning bulls still have the control in the market. With the Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, the price may be able to settle above the resistance level at 1.0200.

GBP/USD: The Cable has been making visible efforts to go bullish since last week. After testing the accumulation territory at 1.5050, the price has gone upwards by roughly 200 pips. A break above the distribution territory 1.5300 would mean the beginning of a new bullish signal.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is bearish in outlook, in spite of the current short-term rally on it. This may be another opportunity to sell short at a better price. Moreover, some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the markets.

EUR/JPY: After testing the demand zone at 137.00, the EUR/JPY pair experienced an upward bounce, enabling it to go near the supply level at 138.50. The bearish bias is still very much intact, and the price could still move further south; unless it breaches the supply zone at 139.50 to the upside.

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USDCAD Daily Analysis - January 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

USDCAD continued its upward movement from 1.1560, and the rise extended to as high as 1.2017. Near term support is at the bottom of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.2100 area. Key support is at 1.1850, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDCHF Daily Analysis - January 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

USDCHF's upward movement from 0.9553 extended to as high as 1.0239. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.0300 area. Key support is now at 1.0117, only break below this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the uptrend is underway, then deeper decline to 1.0050 area could be seen.

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USDJPY Daily Analysis - January 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

USDJPY's downward movement from 120.82 extended to as low as 116.07. Deeper decline to test 115.56 support is possible after a minor consolidation. Resistance is located at the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, only a clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend is complete, then another rise towards 125.00 could be seen.

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - January 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD remains in downtrend from 0.8910 (Oct 29, 2014 high), the rise from 0.8032 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Sideways movement in a range between 0.8032 and 0.8300 would likely be seen in a couple of days. However, as long as 0.8300 resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall towards 0.7500 is still possible after consolidation.

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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - January 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.5785, the rise from 1.5034 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Range trading between 1.5034 and 1.5300 could be seen in a couple of days. Resistance is at 1.5300, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall towards 1.4500 is still possible. Only break above 1.5300 resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

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EURUSD Daily Analysis - January 15, 2015 Forex Analysis

EURUSD's downward movement from 1.2569 extended to as low as 1.1744. Further decline could be expected, and next target would be at 1.1500 area. Resistance is now at 1.1870, only break above this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the downtrend is underway, then further rally to 1.1950 area could be seen.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The EUR/USD pair continued to move lower after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVEL at 1.2250 exposing the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2000 .

Further actions from the ECB regarding QE are still doubted. This is strongly affecting the market leading to the current long-term negative sentiment of the EUR/USD pair.

The pair has lost almost 200 pips since the beginning of 2015, as the market is pushing towards its lowest levels since November 2005.

The market currently looks oversold below the price level of 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT & the lower limit of the movement channel on the H4 chart).

Currently, SELLING the EUR/USD pair is considered a high-risk position at such historically low prices.

On the other hand, BUYING the pair is considered a low-risk opportunity but with low probability after such strong bearish trend.

Bullish pullback should be anticipated when looking for better prices to sell the pair off.

The price level of 1.1950 is the recently established SUPPLY level. Short-term SELL positions can be taken there provided that the market keeps trading below the price level of 1.2000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Many previous lows were established around 1.5550 where the GBP/USD pair found temporary DEMAND in November 2014. A bearish breakout was expressed after many unsuccessful attempts back in 2014.

A bearish flag pattern similar to what happened back in October was successfully executed shortly after. The final bearish target was expected to be around price level of 1.5140.

The market has already pushed further below this level on Friday, reaching the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel around 1.5050.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair is showing bullish recovery off the price level of 1.5050 which is manifested in the successive bullish hammer daily candlesticks. This is supported by the positive UK Manufacturing production data that emerged on Friday.

Price level of 1.5100 has been defended by bulls since 2015 started. Bullish fixation above 1.5130-1.5180 is mandatory to maintain the current corrective movement towards 1.5400.

Consolidation movement range between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 represented the state of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.

As anticipated, the bearish breakout below 1.5550 exposed lower targets directly. The bears have already reached the price level of 1.5050 that has not been hit since August 2013.

For RISKY traders, LONG entries was suggested around price level of 1.5100. Targets would be located initially around 1.5400. Stop Loss to be located below 1.5025. It is running in profits now (+100 pips).

Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5480-1.5550 for a low-risk SELL entry. The stop loss should be located above 1.5560.

Note that the price level of 1.5480 corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level as well as the upper limit of the current movement channel.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Price levels around 1.0620 (the lower limit of the depicted chart) initiated the current strong uptrend within the depicted daily channel.

During the past few weeks, the USD/CAD pair established a temporary consolidation zone between price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670 bullish breakout above which allowed bulls to reach price levels of 1.1800, 1.1900 and recently 1.2015 where new highs have been scored.

As a conservative trader, you should know that price zone of 1.1800-1.1750 remains the nearest SUPPORT zone for the current prices. LONG positions are suggested at retesting this price zone.

You should also note the ascending channel being expressed since price level of 1.1750 extended up to 1.2000 as the market looks quite overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of the movement channel.

This channel pattern may indicate bearish reversal, if confirmed, with bearish breakdown of the lower limit of it around price level of 1.1850-1.1870 (the most recent SUPPORT zone).

As long as bulls keep defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.1850, the market bias remains positive.

Trading recommendations:

LONG positions are suggested at retesting price zone of 1.1800-1.1750. SL should be placed slightly below price level of 1.1730.

Counter-trend risky traders can wait for a bearish breakout below 1.1850 to SELL the USD/CAD pair aiming for 1.1750 and 1.1680.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.

On December 17, the market failed to express a bullish breakout above the upper limit of the daily bearish channel. Shortly after, an extensive bearish pressure was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 on December 23.

Daily closure below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with projection target at 1.5300.

The market has already pushed further below this level reaching down to 1.5030 where the lower limit of the channel was roughly located.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has established two ascending bottoms on the H4 chart. This indicates a short-term uptrend being initiated.

The key-support zone for today's movement is located at 1.5150-1.5180 fixation above which pauses the current bearish decline exposing price levels of 1.5260, 1.5370 and 1.5410.

However, within such strong bearish trend you should note that H4 fixation below 1.5100 indicates further bearish tendency on the market, probably, new lows below 1.5030 are going to be hit.

Trading recommendations:

Price zone of 1.5380-1.5400 should be watched for new SELL entries with SL as daily closure above 1.5400 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.5327 in an ultra high volume. According to the daily time frame, we can observe strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5290 so buying at this stage looks risky.If the price breaks the level of 1,5290 in a high volume, we may see a potential testing of Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5435. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5246

R3: 1.5357

Support levels:

S1: 1.5110

S2: 1.5067

S3: 1.5000

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair at this stage since we have weak demand in the background.

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Gold analysis for January 14, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Since our last analysis gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1,224.78 in a volume below the average. Gold went into weak bearish correction. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below the average, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. We may expect testing the levels of 1,255.00-1,265.00 in next period. Be careful when selling gold and watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows. We got support level at the price of 1,222.00 (swing high like support).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels :

R1: 1,241.96

R2: 1,246.00

R3: 1,252.27

Support levels :

S1: 1,228.90

S2: 1,224.86

S3: 1,218.13

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).

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#USDX technical analysis for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index continues to consolidate. There is no clear trend as the index moves mainly sideways inside a trading range between 92.40 and 91.70. Soon we will see a breakout either towards 93 or towards 91.

Blue line = support

Red line = resistance

The Dollar index is still between the short-term resistance and support levels or, otherwise, it is forming a cotracting triangle. Soon we will have a breakout and we can then start a new short-term move. Breaking above 92.40 will be a bullish signal. On the other hand, a break below 91.70 will be a bearish signal. The short-term upside target is 93 and the short-term downside target is 91.

The weekly chart remains fully bullish. If Dollar were to weaken now, a pullback towards 90 would be justified. The 90 level is the first important weekly level where I would expect a weekly pullback to an end. For now, the weekly candle does not imply any downward reversal but bulls should be very cautious in case 91.70 fails to hold.

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Gold technical analysis for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has reversed lower after reaching $1,245 and making a higher high than the one made in the early December. Despite a higher high sellers have pushed the precious metal back below $1,230. If this is a fake breakout, the reversal will be destructive and we could see new lows, specially if support at $1,200 fails to hold.

Gold price short-term trend remains bullish. The Ichimoku cloud is below the current price and provides support at $1,200. Short-term support is found at $1,215 and short-term resistance at $1,245. A new higher high above $1,245 will confirm bullish trend, so that we should expect gold price to reach $1,260-70. If, on the other hand, gold price breaks below $1,200, we could say that the short-lived breakout was fake and prices are going to fall towards the lows at $1,130.

Gold price as shown on the daily chart above is pulling back inside the triangle. This could be a fake breakout. If this is true, we should expect gold price to move sharply towards $1,180 and then towards the recent lows at $1,130. If, on the other hand, gold manages to break above $1,245, then the bullish scenario with $1,270 as the first target will be preferred.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 14/01/2015 07:05 CET

Despite the striking price/momentum divergence, the market is still making lower lows. So, the Elliott wave count has been adjusted to the new data. On larger time frame, the outlook hasn't changed yet and the preferred count is still the same: the complex corrective structure labeled as WXY brown, that consist of an irregular flat cycle, double three cycle and, at last, zig-zag cycle. The projected level now for the corrective cycle to be completed is at the level of 137.48. Invalidation of the larger scale impulsive cycle comes with the level of 134.12 violation (wave 1 red and wave 2 red overlaps). As long as this level is not violated, the bias remains bullish.

Support/Resistance:

137.17 - WS2

137.49 - 78%Fibo

137.36 - WS1

138.88 - Intraday Resistance

139.45 - Intraday Resistance

140.09 - Purple Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening the buy limit orders at the level of 137.50, with SL below the level of 135.91 and TP at the level of 144.11 (longer term TP, more suitable for swingtraders).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 14 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The correction in blue wave iv continues to unfold as expected. We continue to look for a move closer to the 38.2% corrective target at 1.5351 before blue wave v lower towards 1.4912 is expected to take over. Short-term support is found at 1.5263, which ideally will protect the downside for the move higher to 1.5351 to end blue wave iv and set the stage for blue wave v lower.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking to sell EUR at 1.5320 with a stop at 1.5420.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

The decline has now extended beyond the 70.7% corrective target, which is a matter of concern. That said, if our count is correct the decline from the 149.84 to is a wave two and second waves are allowed to correct 100% of the first wave, so we have to be patient and look for signs of reversal. We have replaced the former channel with a pitchfork and as can be seen on the chart, we are now at the pitchfork support line at the same time the extended wave c of y is now 300% of the length of wave a of y and finally a positive divergence is seen on the indicators, which means a bottom could be nearby. However to confirm the bottom, we need a break above minor resistance at 138.91 and more importantly a break above resistance at 140.51. As long as minor resistance at 138.91 protects the upside, the trend lower is firmly in place.

Trading recommendation:

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 14, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY has dropped below 139.00 levels, yet again stopping us out. The pair is seen trading at sub 138.00 levels for now and immediate support could be seen at the 137.50 levels, which is the fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally from 134.00 to 149.80 respectively. It is recommended to remain flat for now and watch out for a reaction at 137.50 levels. Immediate support is seen at 137.50, followed by 137.00, 136.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at 140.50, followed by 141.50, 145.50 and higher up respectively. Bulls need to break above 140.50 levels at least, to regain control back now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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