Overview
The H4 chart shows that the pair has failed to break the support level of 181.50 to reverse its yesterday's downward trend and to start an upward move. Considering the today's H4 chart, the pair bounced from the support level and started to take an upward movement approaching the resistance level of 183.50 after breaking the resistance level of 182.50, then 183.00. Currently, it is preferable to wait until the closure above this resistance level before making a decision. In this case, we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next resistance level of 184.00, then 184.60 as the second target. But closing below the resistance level of 183.50 today cancels the bullish move scenario.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (184.60), R2 (184.00), R1 (183.50), S1 (182.50), S2 (182.00), S3 (181.50).
Overview
According to the today's H4 chart, the metal has failed to break the support level of 15.70 to bounce again from it and trades between this support level and below the resistance level of 16.00. Currently, the metal is most likely retesting the resistance level of 16.00 again; therefore, we should wait for closing above to continue its upward trend move. Given that the metal has managed to close H4 above today, it gives us a good opportunity for more bullish signals above it with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 16.30, then the second target at 16.75 after breaking this support level. But as long as silver is trading below 16.00, it cancels the bullish move scenario and so, waiting would be preferred.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (16.50), R2 (16.30), R1 (16.00), S1 (15.70), S2 (15.50), S3(15.20)
Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a three-month high of 121.29 om Friday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11.5-year high 97.828 this morning, last 97.69 versus 96.33 early Friday) after the increase of 295,000 in the US February non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +240,000) and the US February unemployment rate of 5.5% (versus forecast 5.6%), while average hourly earnings rose only by 0.1% (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.24% versus 2.11% late Thursday), demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. The USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports, flows to the safe-haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.26% to 15.2, S&P 500 closed 1.42% lower at 2,071.26 Friday) as the robust non-farm payrolls report heightened expectations that the Fed could tighten monetary policy as soon as June. But risk sentiment is soothed by the data released on Sunday showing China's exports posting a strong 48.3% rebound in the USD terms in February (versus forecast +13.3%).
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 121.30 and the second target at 121.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.85. The pivot point is at 120.50.
Resistance levels:
121.30
121.60
122
Support levels:
120.20
119.85
119.45
Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting almost a two-month high of 0.9874 on EBS this morning. USD/CHF is underpinned by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11.5-year high 97.828 this morning, last 97.69 versus 96.33 early Friday) after the increase of 295,000 in the US February non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +240,000) and the US February unemployment rate of 5.5% (versus forecast 5.6%), while average hourly earnings rose only by 0.1% (versus forecast +0.2%). The pair is also supported by the negative Swiss interest rates, the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention and franc sales on the soft CHF/JPY cross.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at overbought levels. Five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.99 and the second target at 0.9955. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9720. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9680. The pivot point is at 0.9780.
Resistance levels:
0.99
0.9955
1.0
Support levels:
0.9720
0.9680
0.9640
Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting almost a one-month low of 0.7340 this morning. NZD/USD is undermined by the bullish dollar sentiment and kiwi sales on the soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion, weak commodity prices, kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD and GBP/NZD crosses and on the soft NZD/CAD cross. The kiwi sentiment is soothed by the rise of 0.9% in New Zealand 4Q manufacturing sales volumes.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7320. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7240. The pivot point stands at 0.7410. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7450 and the second target at 0.7410.
Resistance levels:
0.7450
0.75
0.7550
Support levels:
0.7320
0.7240
0.72
The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 140 pips since the beginning of 2015. The EUR/USD pair is pushing towards a new twelve-years low under 1.0900.
Theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after two bearish MONTHLY closures below 1.2000 (January and February's candlesticks).
A bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. DAILY fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (minor consolidation range) confirmed that bearish pattern.
Last week, evident bearish price action was expressed at the price level of 1.1110 (WEEKLY Low).
Obvious bearish breakdown directly exposed lower targets initially around 1.0800.
In case of bearish persistence below 1.1100 (broken weekly low), projection targets for the FLAG pattern would be located around 1.0800 ( already reached ) and 1.0500 ( yet to come ).
On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.1100 (nearest SUPPLY LEVEL) for a low-risk SELL position with Stop loss to be located above 1.1130.
Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a six-week low of 130.71 on EBS this morning. GBP/JPY is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen amid increased investor risk aversion, the soft EUR/USD undertone and Japan's exports. The losses of GBP/JPY are tempered by demand from the Japanese importers.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 184.05. The pivot point stands at 183.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 182.10 and the second target at 181.45.
Resistance levels:
183.65
184.05
184.40
Support levels:
182.10
181.45
181.15
A bearish breakout below 1.5550 (WEEKLY SUPPLY) directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 where the market has established another consolidation zone, which extended up to the price levels of 1.5280.
Few weeks ago, the ongoing bearish trend was terminated when bullish breakout above 1.5200 took place, as depicted on the chart. The GBP/USD pair has been trending upwards within the depicted bullish channel.
Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 resulting in formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily candlesticks without further retesting of 1.5600.
DEMAND level located around 1.5200-1.5230 was breached last week indicating a strong bearish tendency of the market. It's now expected to act as a SUPPLY level at retesting.
Bulls failed to defend their DEMAND zone of 1.5170-1.5220, especially after the obvious bearish engulfing candlestick that occurred last Monday.
As expected, bearish breakdown of 1.5170 allowed a quick bearish decline towards 1.5080 and 1.5040 to take place shortly after.
Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200 for a valid SELL entry at retesting.
Stop Loss should be located above 1.5230 (previous SUPPLY level).
Overview:
In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4794. According to the 4H time frame, I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential resistance levels and have got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 1.4760 (currently on the test), Fibonaci expansion 100% at the price of 1.4860 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5020. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage still looks very risky since we may expect reaction from buyers. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.4762
R2: 1.4809
R3: 1.4885
Support levels:
S1: 1.4610
S2: 1.4563
S3: 1.4487
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price has tested the level of $1,163.63 in an ultra high volume (selling climax), according to the daily time frame. Our major Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,197.00 got broken. The price rejected from the support level of $1,167.00. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe demand in a volume below the average. Be very careful when selling gold at this stage since we may see a potential absorption volume. Any larger reaction from buyers may cofnrim further bullish phase. We have the first resistance around the price of $1,190.00.
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,175.04
R2: 1,175.97
R3: 1,177.54
Support levels :
S1: 1,172.54
S2: 1,170.90
S3: 1,170.04
Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement (buy on the dips).
The USDX is still very bullish and is trying to stay alive in this bias during considerable time. The nearest resistance is located at the level of 98.01, where we could expect more pullbacks on this instrument. We cannot forget the fact that the USDX could start to form another bullish pattern because the USDX is reaching overbought levels.
The intraday outlook remains bullish as the USDX is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 96.85. We can already see fractal formations near the resistance level of 97.93. If that zone is reached to the upside in the short term, the USDX could test the resistance level of 99.13. The MACD indicator is still on negative territory.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.19
Dailychart's support levels: 96.96 / 95.45
H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.93 / 99.13
H1 chart's support levels: 96.85 / 96.08
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.93, take profit is at 99.13, and stop loss is at 96.72.
During the last week we saw very bearish trend of the GBP/USD pair, but now the pair has found strong support at the level of 1.5086 on the daily chart. Currrently, we could expect a retracement to the resistance level of 1.5247, but the current bias is very likely to go downside. Also, the GBP/USD pair could start to form another bearish pattern.
On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair is making a bullish retracement above the support level of 1.5097. This recovery is rather usual for this pair as the bearish momentum during the last Friday was very strong. By the way, the level of 1.5097 could be tested again and the GBP/USD pair could fall more and even reach new lows during this weak.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5364
Dailychart's support levels: 1.5086 / 1.4948
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5162 / 1.5221
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5097 / 1.5028
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5097, take profit is at 1.5028, and stop loss is at 1.5163.
General overview for 09/03/2015 11:30 CET
There are two Elliott wave counts possible on this market, but due to the recent wave development the outlook is still not very clear:
- The alternative count I indicates that the complex corrective structure labeled as wave X brown might have bottomed at the level of 130.69 and the next leg upward might be underway. To confirm this count, the price must break out above the level of 133.50 and higher.
- The alternative count II indicates a completion of the wave 4 blue in shape of a WXYXXZ complex corrective triple-three structure at the level of 135.87 and now the market is unfolding wave 5 blue to the downside.
Please, keep an eye on the price action on this market as there are too many chart interpretations available at the moment and market can break out higher/lower at any given time. Patience is required.
Support/Resistance:
130.53 - WS3
130.69 - Intraday Support
131.81 - Intraday Resistance
131.96 - WS2
132.77 - WS1
134.32 - Weekly Pivot
Trading recommendations:
Traders should observe the market, wait for a clear price behavior and refrain from trading for now.
General overview for 09/03/2015 10:00 CET
As we anticipated last week, the corrective cycle in wave 4 looks like it is completed and the market is trying to develop the first impulsive wave to the upside. According to the Elliott wave rules, there are two important levels to keep an eye on: small internal impulsive cycle invalidation line at the level of 1.2517 and larger impulsive cycle invalidation line at the level of 1.2386. Any breakout below the last line invalidates the impulsive wave progression. The target for wave v blue is the supply zone between the levels of 1.2658 - 1.2692.
Support/Resistance:
1.2658 - 1.2692 - Supply Zone
1.2626 - Intraday Resistance
1.2564 - Intraday Support
1.2517 - Invalidation Level
1.2506 - Weekly Pivot
1.2493 - WS1
Trading recommendations:
All buy orders advised last week should now be well in profit and the SL might be now placed below the level of 1.2517. TP orders should be placed at the level of 1.2658.
The Dollar index made a new higher high on Friday and has approached even closer to our short-term target at 98. Our longer-term target remains at 100-101. The Dollar index is showing some signs of a possible pull back towards 97 but longer-term trend remains clearly bullish.
Purple line= support
The Dollar index is above the Ichimoku cloud and above a short-term support of the tenkan-sen at 97.06. The kijun-sen support is at 96.45. Resistance is at recent highs of 97.85. The short-term trend remains bullish as long as the price is above the purple trend line support.
The monthly chart of the Dollar index puts us back into perspective regarding our longer-term target of 100-101. Price has broken the 50% retracement and is heading towards the 61.8% retracement. Trend remains fully bullish.
It is very possible that gold price have completed 5 waves down from $1,307 and we should not be surprised to see a strong bounce towards $1,216 at least. The longer-term trend remains bearish. The short-term is showing the signs of a bullish reversal but only as a part of a corrective wave before the downtrend resumes.
Gold price broke below the support of $1,190 last week and pushed towards $1,160. Prices are bouncing higher now and the short-term resistance is found at $1,182. Important short-term resistance is found at $1,200.
Gold price, as shown on the weekly chart above, has most probably finished the impulsive decline from $1,307. We should now expect a three wave bounce towards at least the 38% retracement.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair dropped lower and re-tested its earlier lows (attempting for a higher low) at 130.85 levels as seen here. The earlier lows at 130.10/20 levels remains intact for now. It is recommended to hold long positions taken earlier, with risk at the level of 130.00. Bulls are expected to take control back till prices remain above the level of 130.10 . Immediate support is seen at the level of 130.10, while resistance is seen at 136.00, followed by 137.50/138.00, 140.26, and higher respectively. Please note that the current drop from 136.00 to 130.85 could still be treated as wave 2 within the 3 wave corrective rally.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long for now, stop at 130.00 target 140.30 and 142.30.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF pair dropped to 1.4760 levels and bounced off the fibonacci 0.50 support of the rally between 1.4656 and 1.4870 levels. It was recommended to initiate long positions around 1.4730 levels, however, the pair turned earlier. One could remain flat for now and look for another dip to go long. The immediate upside is seen at 1.5000 and 1.5150 respectively. Bulls are poised to remain in control until prices stay above 1.4656 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.4656, followed by 1.4580, 1.4412, and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5000, followed by 1.5150 and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now. Look to initiate long positions at 1.4730, stop at 1.4650
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver dropped lower into $15.75 levels last Friday, breaking interim support at $16.00. The metal has been holding major support at $15.50 levels for now, which is encouraging for bulls. It is still recommended to remain long with risk at $15.50 levels. Please note that prices are stalling within the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between sub $14.00 levels and $18.50 respectively. A bullish bounce here could still keep the upswing intact and look higher towards $20.00/21.00 levels at the coming sessions. Immediate support is at $15.50, followed by sub $14.00 levels while resistance is seen at $16.90, followed by $17.50, $18.50, and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long for now, stop at $15.50, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold had dropped to $1,163.00 levels last week, taking our stops out at $1,170.00 levels. The metal has hit the back side of resistance trend line which should now act as support, as depicted here on the daily chart view. Longs are still preferred against $1,130.00 lows from current price at $1,173.00 levels. Please also note that the drop had stalled at fibonacci 0.786 support of the entire rally between $1,130.00 and $1,309.00 levels earlier. A bullish bounce at current levels could would keep the uptrend in place and the structure intact. Support is seen at $1,146.00 followed by $1,130.00 while resistance is seen at $1,220.00, followed by $1,280.00 and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Initiate fresh long positions at $1,173.00 levels, stop at $1,130.00, a target is open.
Good luck!
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 295,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The stronger US data punched the yellow metal prices to a 2-month low. After the QE launch by the ECB, the yellow metal fell below $1,200.00 and closed below it. Previously, we pointed the trend change. The metal fell below $1,200.00 thrice and managed to close above it. It's a good sign to recover. The metal made a high at $1,222.00 from a low at $1,190.00. Now, this view has been erased. We recommend selling below $1,195.00 with targets at $1,190.00 and $1,185.00. A daily close below $1,185.00 leads to $1,179.00, $1,170.00, $1,167.00, and $1,150.00 in the near term. The price made a low at 1163.50. Until prices close below $1,200.00, bears have the upper hand. The intraday support is found at $1,163.00 and resistance is seen at $1,204.50 and $1,209.00. The weekly resistance is set between $1,172.00.
Resistance: $1,172.00, $1,179.10, $1,187.00.
Support: $1,163.00, $1,155.00, $1,150.00.
Trade: selling below $1,163.00.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
The weekly technical levels for EUR/USD pair:
Overview :
