Friday 2 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 02, 2012 Trend News

With the world's largest economy mired in an electoral process that ends next week, the expectation of the markets is totally in this data set.

Because of that market participants are taking a risk aversion as markets await the outcome of the U.S. elections next week. Many are avoiding placing aggressive positions in the market.

In minutes you will know the jobs data from the United States. In this regard, it is expected that 123,000 jobs were created in October, more than in September. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate could remain unchanged.

Right now, the Dow Jones index futures show a rising trend in the short term.

Gold prices fluctuated between gains and losses and finally touched an intraday low of U.S. $1,729.4 to close at $1714.09 on Thursday.

Not much else at the moment, only the logic caution not to place positions in the first impulse of the price. Remember that no one saves an account or get rich putting in random positions.

Also, the most of the day prices end at the same level in which they are located before the jobs data is published.


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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook For November 02, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The euro fell again due to continued weakness in the eurozone.

As we mentioned earlier in our articles, 1.3050 is a strong resistance, because the euro failed to hold above this level. The main uptrend line kept the euro upward force from the beginning of September and was aligned with the level of 1.29 (key level).


You can see on the chart that the break of the trendline is likely to continue falling to 1.2850 weekly support or there may be a pullback to the trendline that was broken. Taking it into account, we are taking bearish positions on this pair, I may consider buying above 1.3050 below this level, the peaks look to sell this pair.



The situation in Europe has not improved at all. It just came out of the headlines. Currently the world is paying attention to the U.S. and it will be at least until the end of elections.


Therefore, we recommend selling the pair at resistance levels or levels that we have indicated on the graph with objectives in the medium term up to 1.2550.





If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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GBP/USD Sell Below Fractal 1.6135. For November 02, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The British pound tried to break the bearish channel but it was unsuccessful. Yesterday it fell below the 1.6135 fractal (key level) that we mentioned earlier in our articles; this level has exerted strong downward pressure since early October. Currently the pair is trading at 1.6070, above the moving average of 50 periods. If it falls below this level we recommend selling, with objectives to the next fractal of 1.5950, which serves as a very strong support.


On the other hand, a pullback to 1.6135 key level will be a chance to sell this pair with objectives to 1.60 psychological level.


The operators are very uncertain because next week will be key for the markets, so we recommend great caution, and do not risk, as it will be unpredictable movements.



If you need personal consultation, contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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NZD/USD: Technical Analysis for November 2, 2012 Trend News

Overview:


The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue the movement from the point of 0.8140. Thus, the kiwi shows the signs of strength, following the breakdown of the highest level 0.8140. This fact can be considered as a good signal for BUY deals above this strong support (0.8140) with the first targets at 0.8223 and 0.8330 (it will serve as a strong resistance level and is considered to be appropriate for take profit orders). It is necessary to mention that this level will coincide with the weekly resistance 2 (0.8332). However, in case of the reverse movement and if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.8332, the market will show a further decline to the level of 0.8190 (it is the weekly pivot point) indicating a bearish mood in order to retest the weekly support 1 at the level of 0.8140.



Weekly Pivot Points:



R3: 0.8421

R2: 0.8332

R1: 0.8279

PP: 0.8190

S1: 0.8137

S2: 0.8048

S3: 0.7995



If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.


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USD/JPY Analysis for November 2, 2012 Trend News

Daily



On the daily chart the yen has formed the last Divergence near the Stochastic indicator. Consequently, the pair dropped towards the correctional level 76.4% - 77.96 of Fibonacci and rebounded towards the US currency. As a result, the rate’s growth continued towards the correctional level 61.8% of Fibonacci; then USD/JPY consolidated above it in the direction of the level of correction 50.0% - 80.09 of Fibonacci. Meanwhile, the Divergence near the CCI indicator is about to appear. If the peak of the indicator is not higher than the previous one, then the rate will be higher than the previous peak (80.37). The formation of such a Divergence enables the rate to turn in favor of the yen. The rebound from the level of correction 50.0% or 38.2% - 81.08 enables the pair to start drop.




4h



On the 4H chart Divergence has not been formed in the recent time. After the rate consolidated above the correctional level 200.0 – 79.78 of Fibonacci, the USD/JPY pair may continue the rate’s growth towards the correctional level 261% - 80.34 of Fibonacci. The rebound from the level of correction 261.8% enables the rate to swing at the yen and start falling. The Divergence at MACD is about to happen; if the current peak of the indicator is not higher than the previous one (Oct. 26), then the price shows the rise above the corresponding peak on the price chart. (80.37). In this case, the pair may swing towards the yen and start down move. Especially if the second point of Divergence is near any level of Fibonacci correction. The rate’s consolidation above 261.8% of Fibonacci enables the pair to continue the upward move towards the next level of correction 323.6% - 80.92.


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EUR/AUD Wave Analysis for November 2, 2012 Trend News


EUR/AUD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the EUR/AUD pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (5) (coloured green) was developing. During the European session we could observe descending movement from 1.2513 towards the 1.2466 level. Therefore, during the New York session this pacific currency continued trading in a bearish mood reaching a new daily low at 1.2437 level. Today the EUR/AUD pair finished 3 impulsive wave at 1.2417 and we are expecting to see price lower again when development of the 5 wave (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.2367 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.2483 level as stop loss.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.2384 (S2) 1.2413 (S1) 1.2431 (PP) 1.2461 (R1) 1.2490 (R2) 1.2508 (R3) 1.2538



Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.2448 with stop loss 1.2483 and take profit at 1.2367 are recommended.


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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for November 2, 2012 Trend News


USD/CHF Elliott Wave

Last week the USD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move, corrective (B) wave (coloured green) of the bigger (B) wave (coloured orange) was developing. Yesterday during the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 0.9311 towards the 0.9341 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new daily low at 0.9295 level. Today we could observe the USD/CHF pair trading around 0.9355 level and we are expecting to see price around 0.9448 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C should retrace 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A, with take profit 1 at 0.9448 (100% of wave A) and take profit 2 at 0.9555 (161.8% of wave A) . To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9276 level as stop loss.


Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9271 (S2) 0.9289 (S1) 0.9300 (PP) 0.9318 (R1) 0.9336 (R2) 0.9347 (R3) 0.9365



Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9365 with stop loss 0.9276, take profit 1 at 0.9448, and take profit 2 at 0.9555 are recommended.


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Gold Undergoing Retracement.... Higher Levels Expected Soon Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Gold reversed yesterday just shy of 1,730.00 level; currently undergoing retracement. It is expected to bounce back from/between 1,710-1,715 levels and target higher towards 1,730/50 levels. It is recommended to re-enter buying at these levels again. 1,700 level should be held as support now and if the prices fall below to re-test, 1,695/90 levels should provide strong support. 1,730, 1,750, 1,780, and 1,795 levels are lined up resistance levels for the bulls to target on higher side. Bullish for now.


Trade Recommendations:


Hold long positions taken earlier, buy on intraday dips, stop at 1,680, and target open.


Good Luck!


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Silver Retraces After 32.50 Level. Time To Buy Again Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


After clearing 32.50 level yesterday, silver is retracing at the moment. 32.00 level should act as support now; it is recommended to buy intraday dips towards 32.00 level for targets above 33.00/30 levels immediately. 31.50 is intermediary support and 30.20 support is held till now. It is expected that the ongoing retracement should be well supported ahead of 31.50 level and then move higher. 33.30, 34.40, and 35.00 levels are lined up resistances for the bulls to target. Bullish for now.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, add more positions now (32.00), stop at 31.00, and target open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Remains Unchanged For Now Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Nothing has changed structurally since yesterday. The single currency is trading sideways and awaiting a breakout. A push is required above 104.00 level now to print new highs at 104.75 before reversing. On the other hand, a drop below 103.00 level would ascertain that a lower high has been carved out at 104.50/60 for now. As it was recommended, if long positions have been taken earlier, risks should be brought at breakeven levels. Intermediary support is at 103.25 level, while resistance is at 104.20/30 levels.


Trading Recommendations:


1. Book profits on long positions taken earlier. Stay flat.


2. Hold long positions, move stop loss to breakeven, target 104.75.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Faces Resistance At 1.51 Level... Maybe Inching Lower Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The single currency pair pulled back sharply yesterday, just ahead of recent highs at 1.51 level. Until now the recommendation to exit long positions has proved to be good. 1.51 level is intermediary resistance and has the potential to reverse the price action on the lower side. 1.5210, 1.5350, and 1.5450 are lined up as strong resistance levels. It is recommended to once again seek selling opportunities on intraday rallies. It is quite possible that the single currency dips lower and tests the recent lows created earlier at 1.4800 level. 1.4700 support level has remained intact till now; if it breaks though, in the coming sessions, the pair could be poised for a larger correction.


Trading Recommendations:


Sell now (1.5030). Stop at 1.5150. Target Open.


Good Luck!


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