Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 19, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, BOJ Monthly Report, and the US will release some economic data such as US-Building Permits, US-PPI m/m, US-Core PPI m/m, US-Housing Starts. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.75.

Resistance. 2: 102.55.

Resistance. 1: 102.35.

Support. 1: 102.10.

Support. 2: 101.90.

Support. 3: 101.70.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.70) and resistance 3 (102.75). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of gold for February 19, 2014 Trend News

After soft economic data, gold rebounded from the lower levels of $1,312. Gold recovered during the European trading session. The US dollar weekened after the Federal Reserve Bank of NY said that the general business conditions index came in at 4.48 for the current month vs 12.51 in January. Gold is moving against all the forecasts, now everyone is talking of the bull run. We expect the trend to change in the short term. The ongoing tapering of the QE makes the US dollar stronger, which is a major bearish factor for gold.

In the hourly chart yesterday gold held the 40DEMA. The price continuously tested the support at the level of $1,312.3 for three hours, it succeeded and flew back again. Yesterday, we recommended selling, all our targets were met. RSI is still in the overbought zone in the hourly and daily charts. The price created a base around the levels of $1312-$1,310. Major weakness only closing below these levels. Now the price movement framed in a tight range of $1,310-$1,332.

Support: $1,319, $1,316, $1,310.

Resistance: $1,325, $1,332 $1,338.

Today gold closed below $1,318. The short-term trend will change, sell further if it closes below $1,310 for the targets $1,300, $1,290, and $1,285.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 19, 2014 Trend News

In the hourly chart, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3760. RSI gives an overbought indication. Prices are holding above the 21 and 40 DEMA that is a bull factor. If the price breaks 1.3742, weakness persists in the intraday trading session towards downside. We can expect the selling pressure to start soon.

R1 1.3813

R2 1.3820

Recommendation-

1- Sell below 1.3742 target 1.3720 and 1.3695.

2- If any rise happens, sell at 1.3813 and 1.3820.

If the price breaks 1.3695, next support comes at 1.3620 and 1.3585.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY has broken out higher from the recent trading range between 139.00 and 140.00 levels. Please note that the 142.00 region is the fibonacci 0.618 resistance where a bearish reaction could be expected. It is recommended to remain short and also initiate further short positions around 142.20/30, risk remains at 143.00.

2. Immediate resistance is at 142.00, followed by 143.00 and 145.50, while supports are spread through 137.00 (intermediary), followed by 134.00 and 131.00 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that prices are retracing higher at the moment and resistance region is around 142.00. Please look for EUR/JPY to fall back and settle around the 135.00 region where trend line support meets. A line break would indicate firm grip of bears to drag further low towards 134.00 and 131.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is above 143.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is on track to hit fresh lows in the coming week, bears seem to be in control after hitting 1.4950/60 resistance. It is recommended to remain short and also sell on intraday rallies. A meaningful top is in place at the 1.5120/30 levels, which should hold.

2. Immediate intermediary resistance is at 1.4950/60, followed by 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4550, followed by 1.4360 and lower respectively.

3. The structure indicated that GBP/CHF is heading lower towards 1.44 and 1.40 in the coming weeks. A major top has been in place at 1.5120/30, and till prices are lower, bears should continue printing lower lows.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 1.5130, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 19, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver produced a doji yesterday, that is indicative of a potential down move from here. Please note that any fall from here would be corrective and opportunity to go long. Aggressive trading setup would be to initiate short positions at the $21.75 levels, risk remains just above $22.00.

2. Immediate resistance is at $22.05/10, followed by $23.00, while supports are spread through $20.50 (past resistance turned support), followed by $20.00 and $19.00 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver has turned higher from sub $18.00 levels and is expected to print higher highs and higher lows from here on. Any pullbacks from here on could be used as opportunities to go long.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions around $21.70/75, stop is at $22.25, target is at $20.50. Then turn long.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USDX for February 19, 2014 Trend News

The US dollar was weakened by softer economic data. The Federal Reserve Bank of NY said that the general business conditions index came at 4.48 for the current month vs 12.51 in January. USD is volatile ahead of FOMC minutes. Traders are waiting for the monetary policy outlook. During this year, the US disappointed economic data weakened the greenback, it is trading at a 6-week low. At Asia's trading session, the US dollar is trading at the level of 80.0.

In the hourly chart the US dollar is preparing some kind of base around the level of 79.95. At Monday's trading session, USD took support at the level of 79.75 and again at yesterday's trading session, the price took support at the level of 79.76. On the upper side, yesterday the price made a triple top in the hourly chart at the level of 80.23. It seems the price movement is strictly prohibited in a tight range either side for a clear move.

Support: 79.95, 79.7.

Resistance: 80.23, 80.51.

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Analysis of USD/JPY for February 19, 2014 Trend News

Japan's central bank maintained its policy stance. Japan will continue to ease in order to achieve the inflation rate at 2%. They extended and doubled the size of its bank lending. Under the growth support facility, the central bank's maximum provision of funds was doubled to 7 trillion yen from 3.5 trillion yen. They doubled the country's monetary base by an annual 60-70 trillion yen per year through the purchase of the Japanese government bonds, exchange traded funds and real estate investment trusts along with commercial papers and corporate bonds. These changes can attract new short-yen positions.

In the currency front, USD/JPY is trading at the level of 102.27 in Asia's trading session. In the hourly chart the RSI gives negative indication, but the price is holding the 40 DEMA. If the pair breaks 102.23, we can expect downfall towards 101.88,101.75, and 101.40. Just now it has broken the 102.23 level and is heading towards the downside targets.

Intraday-

S1 102.23 R1 102.308

S2 101.88 R2 102.42

S3 101.75 R3 102.60

If the price sustains above 102.42, it can fly up to 103.40.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 19, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, there will be released the German 10-y Bond Auction.The US will release the economic data too such as the US-Building Permits, US-PPI m/m, US-Core PPI m/m, US-Housing Starts, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3832.

Strong Resistance:1.3823.

Original Resistance: 1.3810.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3797.

Target Inner Area: 1.3764.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3731.

Original Support: 1.3718.

Strong Support: 1.3705.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3696.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3718 and 1.3810. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3705 and by 1.3823 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3696 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3832 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3731 and at 1.3797, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3764.

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 19, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold has given its first signal of a potential retracement built up. Having reversed from $1,333.00, the metal is expected to retrace at least towards $1,270.00/75.00 region. It is recommended to initiate short positions around $1,227.00/28.00 today, risk remains at $1,235.00.

2. Immediate resistance is at $1,360.00, while supports are spread through $1,275.00/70.00 (past resistance turned support), followed by $1,220.00/30.00, $1,210.00 and $1,180.00 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold could retrace lower towards $1,270.00 levels or towards the back side of the falling resistance line which is at $1,220.00/30.00 at present.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate short positions between $1,327.00/28.00, set stop at $1,335.00, target is at $1,270.00

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 19, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: USDX is consolidating below the resistance level of 80.11 with a higher low pattern, so USDX is likely to continue falling below this level, reaching the support level of 79.19 in the long term. However, USDX formed a fractal near the level of 79.85, so USDX may perform a bullish rebound and achieve again consolidation above the level of 80.11. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has found support near the 79.95 level. However, the weakness in the U.S. dollar remains as the USDX remains below the 200 SMA. However, if the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 79.76, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.69. On the other hand, if the USDX manages to break the bullish trend line near the 80.25 level, it is expected to rise to the level of 80.44. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: The USDX is looking for support at the point of control near the 80.00 level, so it is likely to fall to the level of 79.88. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.64. On the other hand, if the USDX breaks the resistance level of 80.15, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.35. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.88, take profit is at 79.64, and stop loss is at 80.11.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 19, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD has fallen to the support level of 1.6663 and this is part of the corrective movements for bullish bias on this pair, since the GBP/USD is overbought in this chart. However, if this pair makes a breakout at the support level, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.6540, which would jeopardize the bullish bias. On the other hand, it is very likely that this pair make a bullish rebound at current levels and up to the level of 1.6766. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: This pair has found support at the bullish trend line near the 1.6682 level. If this pair takes a bullish rebound above that level, would be expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6820. On the other hand, a breakout at the support level of 1.6667, GBP/USD could lead to fall to the level of 1.6644. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory and the pair remains above the 200 SMA.

H1 chart: GBP/USD is moving through the middle point of control near the psychological level of 1.6700. If the pair manages to consolidate above this level, it would be expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6750. Furthermore, if the weakness continues in the GBP/USD, it's very likely that this pair will drop to the support level of 1.6629. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6700, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6650.

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Daily analysis of Silver for February 18, 2013 Trend News

Overview

Today's H4 chart shows that the metal is still trading between the support level of 21.75 and below the resistance level of 21.75 after its failure to break the resistance level yesterday to continue the upward trend. Today, silver bounced from the resistance level to take a slightly downward move and trade below it. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level in case of continuing its upward movement to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the resistance level of 22.00, then after breaking of this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 22.20, which will give us more bullish signals.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (22.20), R2 (22.00), R1 (21.75), S1 (21.25), S2 (20.90), S3(20.50).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From the today's H4 chart and as it was expected yesterday, the pair might take a new bullish signals in case of closing 4H above the resistance level of 170.50 after it has been tested yesterday. Today the pair took an upward movement and managed to break the strong resistance area of 170.50 then 171.50, but immediately it bounced again from the resistance level of 171.50 to reverse its upward direction and currently the price is trading around this resistance area. More bullish signals are still expected in case of closing above this resistance area with first target few pips below the resistance level of 172.00, hence we should wait for more confirmations before making the decision.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (172.50), R2 (172.00), R1 (171.50), S1 (170.50), S2 (169.75), S3 (168.50).

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for February 18, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
The AUD/USD pair has continued trading downwards, corrective wave [ii] (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart of the AUD/USD pair, we can see that wave [ii] is taking a form of the FLAT correction and while the price stays above the low at 0.8924, we can look for a buying opportunity in the [iii] wave that is currently developing. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 0.9231 (161.8% of wave [i]). Swing traders can also try same position but they should wait until all five waves to complete and than we can close position.



Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8967, (S2) 0.8994, (S1) 0.9013, (PP) 0.9040, (R1) 0.9059, (R2) 0.9086, (R3) 0.9105.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9045 with stop loss at 0.8924 take profit at 0.9231 are recommended.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for Febuary 18, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 18/02/2014 12:15 CET

The corrective cycle wave (iv) blue is getting more complex and so far the most accurate corrective price formation would be a triangle. That means the market might stay within the treading range between the levels of 1.0944 - 1.0987 for some time now and only a breakout would be a good clue for a next market move. Please notice the bearish impulsive count invalidation line at the level of 1.1040. Any line violation means that the bottom is in place and the market is ready for another leg up.

Support/Resistance:

1.0944 - 1.0987 - Intraday Range Zone

1.0994 - Weekly Pivot

1.1016 - 1.1024 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

1.1034 - Invalidation Line

Trading recommendations:

A breakout above the level of 1.0987 is bullish and buy positions should be opened with SL below the level of 1.0971 and TP at the level of 1.1016.

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GOLD analysis for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, like we expected, the price tested the level of 1,312.42 on average volume. Gold is still in major bullish corrective phase, but we may see possible end of that bullish corrective phase. We can observe decreasing volume on upper leg, which is a sign that we may see possible bearish movement. The price rejected from our FE 100% at the price of 1,333.00 and Gold started bearish movement. Be careful with buying at this stage since we have got decreasing volume on upper leg and Gold is near high new ground. I placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find possible down stations and i got FR 38.2% at the price of 1,297.00 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1,274.00. Our advice is to watch for potential bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,331.51

R2: 1,334.13

R3: 1,338.37

Support levels:

S1: 1,323.03

S2: 1,320.41

S3: 1,316.17

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since we got decreasing volume on upper leg and Gold is near high new ground.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 18, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 18/02/2014 12:00 CET

The corrective cycle wave c to the downside that I have been expecting did not happen so it means the overall corrective cycle in wave (ii) green has been finished sooner and now the market continues to go higher. The first resistance is the supply zone marked as a grey rectangle between the levels of 141.06 - 141.25. If this area is violated, then next higher highs are anticipated. The key intraday level for bulls is the 140.22 level as the technical support level. Only a breakout below this level opens the road to invalidation line at the level of 139.66.

Support/Resistance:

141.06 - 141.25 - Supply Zone

141.06 - WR2

140.84 - Intraday Resistance

140.22 - Key Level

139.66 - Bullish Red Count Invalidation Line

139.42 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:

As long as price stays above the level of 140.22, buy positions should be opened with SL below the level of 140.19 and TP at the level of 141.06.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6504 on high volume. We can observe strong demand on the market on the high volume. The price also broke our FR 38.2% at the price of 1.6450 and now we may expect the testing of the FR 61.8% at the price of 1.6575. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6403

R2: 1.6418

R3: 1.6441

Support levels:

S1: 1.6356

S2 : 1.6341

S3: 1.6317

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair,watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Forecast for the short term :

• According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been trapped between 0.8355 and 0.828.
  


• A strong level (resistance) will be formed at the level of 0.8390, providing a clear signal for sell deals with the target seen at 0.8256 in order to test the double bottom. Stop-loss is to be placed above 0.8425.


• A strong level (support) will be formed at the level of 0.8240, providing a clear signal for buy deals with the target seen at the 0.8366 level. Stop-loss is to be placed below 0.8205.

Observations :

• The weekly resistance will set at the price of 0.8415. Also, the double top will set at 0.8384.


• The weekly support will set at the price of 0.8210. Also, the double bottom will set at 0.8256.


• The previous range was 128 pips. Therefore, we expect a range about 135 pips this week. Additionaly, it should be noted that a risk of 90pips must make a profit of 135 pips.


• Volatility: 106.50.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Weekly pivot point: 0.8955

Trading recommendations :

• According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair has still been moving between 0.8935 and 0.8903.


• The price of 0.8903 is going to form a double bottom in H1 chart.


• Moreover, the price of 0.8955 is represented as the weekly pivot point on February 18, 2014.


• So, sell at the 0.8955 price with the first target at the 0.89 price, then it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.8873 to test the weekly support 1.


• At the same time, the stop loss should be placed at the level of 0.8983.

Notes :

• We expect a range of 153 pips for February 18-21, 2014.


• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is: 0.8970.


• Also, it should note that 0.8970 will confirm the bullish market.


• Volatility: 120.20 (as a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility).

Technical levels :

Date and Time: 18/02/2014 10:28

Pair: USD/CHF

• R2: 0.9089


• R1: 0.9007


• PP: 0.8955


• S1: 0.8873


• S2: 0.8821

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#USDX technical analysis for February 18, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index had reached important support levels and was oversold. A bounce was expected as in our previous analysis towards 80.20-40. After making a low at 79.95, we see the index trading above 80 again near its first short-term target of 80.20. We expect this upward bounce to continue higher towards 80.40-50.

Short-term resistance is found at 80.25 where the previously broken black trend line is. We expect the index to rise higher and meet the downward sloping channel trend line near 80.40. Short-term support is found at 80.05 that if broken we could see a back test of the lows.

The daily chart shows clearly the bounce we were expecting is taking form. We believe that the bounce will last a couple days more and we could see the bounce reach even 80.60. Concluding, we remain bullish above 79.95 with the 80.40 target.

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Gold technical analysis for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Gold price finally reached our long-term downward sloping trend line as shown in the chart below and reversed. In our previous analysis we mentioned that there was increased chances of a pull back since Gold price has reached an overbought level and our target price. Gold price after reaching $1,332.50 has reversed and is now a lower than $1,320 testing the short-term support area we noted yesterday.

Gold price is heading towards the $1,315 support and if broken we could see the price move towards the lower channel boundaries. Breaking below the upward sloping trend line could start a decline towards the Ichimoku cloud support at $1,280.

The reversal on the daily chart is evident. The reversal came right on our long-term downward sloping red trend line. This confirms the top and increases the chances of seeing a pull back. We noted several times before in our analysis that bulls should start taking profits and raise their stops as the probability of a pull back has increased. Support is now found at $1,315 and if broken we will test $1,300. Our view is neutral to bearish as we think we have see a short-term top in Gold price.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6578

R2: 1.6525

R1: 1.6459

Current spot: 1.6430

S1: 1.6405

S2: 1.6359

S3: 1.6305

Technical summary:

We have finally broken above resistance at 1.6430 and should see an acceleration higher towards 1.6525 and higher towards 1.6787. In the short term, we will ideally see the former resistance at 1.6430 acting as support, but only a break below support at 1.6405 will frustrate our bullish view for a move closer to 1.6342, but this support can not be broken as that will invalidate our bullish expectations.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6260 and move your stop higher to 1.6335. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy here at 1.6430 with the same stop at 1.6335.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 141.63

R2: 141.23

R1:140.98

Current spot: 140.71

S1: 140.53

S2: 140.33

S3: 140.17

Technical summary:

The break above resistance at 140.07 indicated that we shall look for a rally towards at least 142.40, where wave c will be equal in length to wave a, but we could see wave c extend higher towards the 2 times wave target at 145.61, before we should see renewed downside pressure.

In short term we will be looking for support at 140.33 protecting the downside for the next rally higher towards 142.40 as the first major target for this rally.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop + reverse at 140.10 was hit and we took a small loss, now stay long in EUR at 140.10 and place our stop at 139.45. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR close to 140.33 with the same stop at 139.45.

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