Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of Gold for July 29-August 01, 2014 Trend News

Weekly view

The metal is trading above 50WSma. In yesterday's early sell-off it held the short-term key support. The metal has managed to close above the 50WSma for the last two weeks. It's a good sign for the short-term bullish thoughts. By the end of this week, if the metal closes above the 50WSma at $1,298, we can expect a short run to start from the next week onwards, if not we can see a correction towards $1,287, $1,275 and $1,260 levels.

Weekly support $1,298 $1,287

Intraday cmp $1,304.70

The metal is trading above the hourly moving averages. It has support at $1,303 and $1,299. We recommend to sell only below $1,298, until that use a dip to buy. On the upside, it has resistance at $1,309, $1,311, $1,315 and $1,318 levels. The weekly uptrend strong reversal is placed at $1,324.30, above this we can see $1,344 levels.

Sell only below $1,298.

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Short-term forecast for USD/CHF for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Short-term view

The pair successfully closed above 50WSma in previous weeks and moved to a three-month high. The pair made a double bottom at 0.8699 levels. But, this week the pair made a double top at 0.9052, as of now, above this, it will fly up to 0.9120 (20MSma) and 0.9160 (200WSma). On the down side, it has strong monthly support at 0.8985 (50WSma) and 0.89 (20WSma) levels.

Monthly

Resistance: 0.9052

Support: 0.8985, 0.89, 0.8857

Fresh buy above 0.9052

Weekly basis (July 29-August 01)

The pair has strong support at 0.9035, 0.90 and 0.8960 levels. Use a dip to buy for a higher target.

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Short-term forecast and weekly recommendations for USD/JPY for July 29, 2014 Trend News

The pair successfully closed above the 50WSma, which was a nice turn around in the short-term bullish view. We are recommending to buy from 101.30 with sl 101 (the article published on July 18, 2014) levels. If this week, the pair manages to close above 20WSma, the near term will also change to extremely bullish view towards 102.30, 102.60, 102.80, 103 and 103.40 levels. On the down side, it has strong support at 101.44 (50WSma).

Support: 101.44

Weekly view July 28-August 01

In Asia's session, the pair is trading above 50DSma. It's been making a lower lows for 8 sessions. The pair has near strong resistance at 102.05 (200DSma and 100DSma). Once it breaches, it will fly up to 102.25, 102.40 and 102.75 levels. It has support at 101.80, 101.60 and 101.20 levels.

Strong buy is above 102.05, add on dips.

Support 101.80 101.60 101.20

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

The pair held the support at 1.3420 and is trading at 1.3438 in the Pacific session. In the daily chart, the daily momentum oscillators seated at oversold levels. The support zone is between 1.3420-1.3395. Traders are eyeing Wednesday's FOMC meeting. We recommend selling only below 1.3370 levels. The pair has resistance at 1.3496 (40Dema) levels. Until it trades below the 40 Dema, the downside risk still emerges in this week.

Support: 1.3420, 1.3395, 1.3370.

Resistance: 1.3496, 1.3546, 1.3585.

Intraday cmp 1.3439

The pair is trading above 35Dema that is a good sign to think that the downfall will pause for a while. It has resistance at 1.3450 and 1.3466. Until the pair trades below the 21 HrSma and 34HrSma, the bears will have control on an hourly basis.

Support: 1.3430, 1.3420, 1.3395.

Resistance: 1.3450, 1.3466, 1.3485.

Buy only above 1.3466.

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX is trying to form a lower high pattern above the 81.00 level, while the USDX is trying to stay strong in the current bullish trend. However, the USDX could fall to the support level of 80.62 as part of the corrective momevements, but for now, the bullish bias is strong.

H4 chart: The USDX has moved on in the last hour range below the resistance level of 81.02. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the bullish trend line which is located at the level of 81.45. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a pullback at current levels, the next target would be the support level of 80.60.

H1 chart: The USDX has not made significant changes in the last few hours, so the USDX still remains strong in the bullish trend. The next target is the road bullish resistance level of 81.19. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 80.93, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.73. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.19, take profit is at 81.40, and stop loss is at 80.98.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 29, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD stays below the 1.7000 level, largely unchanged during yesterday's session, so this pair is still trying to form a bearish pattern to extend the drop to support level of 1.6851 in the medium term. The GBP/USD could resume the bullish trend if makes a rebound at current levels. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: This pair continues to find resistance at the level of 1.6995, which is below the 200 SMA. The next target in the bearish road is still the support level of 1.6900. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the level of 1.6841. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: No major changes in the GBP/USD intraday trend, so it is very likely that in the coming hours, the pair will attempt to make a breakout at the level of 1.6950. If successful, it is expected to fall to the support level of 1.6950. On the other hand, if the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.7000, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.7050.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6950, take profit is at 1.6900, and stop loss is at 1.7000.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.

Previous prominent bullish engulfing daily candlesticks emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 (the key level corresponding to the previous prominent bottom).

Later on, the EUR/USD pair has been facing difficulty to fixate above the key level around 1.3640-1.3660, then successive bearish engulfing candlesticks originated off this price zone.

Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has applied enough pressure on 1.3560 (corresponding to previous prominent bottom) exposing 1.3500 which was broken down shortly after.

Bullish fixation above 1.3480 - 1.3500 is essential for the bulls to recover and acquire momentum strong enough to initiate a corrective move within the current steep bearish trend.

Breakdown of 1.3500 invalidated the bullish structure allowing the bears to pursue towards the price level of 1.3420 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%).

Bullish pressure may be initiated around the current prices provided that the bears fail to fixate below 1.3400 on a daily basis.

However, the current short-term trend remains intact until proven otherwise. So, the bulls should be conservative with their long positions as the trend could resume anytime.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

A solid bullish structure kept pushing higher. This bullish structure was manifested in successive ascending bottoms around 1.6465, 1.6555, and 1.6665 (corresponding to the uptrend line)

Lack of bullish momentum and indecision were observed on the daily chart when the pair established a consolidation zone between 1.7050 and 1.7170.

On the other hand, the most dependable DEMAND level located around 1.7050 (the uptrend line too) was broken down exposing the price levels of 1.7000.

The price levels of 1.6910-1.6920 are the next destination of the current bearish movement provided that the bears manage to push below 1.6950 (prominent bottom).

As expected, the price zone between 1.7140 - 1.7170 provided evident bearish price action.

A pattern of multiple tops was confirmed after breakdown of the depicted bullish channel. Moreover, successive bearish targets were hit around 1.7055 and 1.7000.

Risky traders may keep their SELL positions up to the price level of 1.6910 where the next prominent Demand Level is located provided that the bears manage to push below 1.6950 (prominent bottom).

On the other hand, the price level of 1.6950 may apply significant bullish rejection as it corresponds to the previous prominent bottom established in June. That's why, price action should be watched.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a three-week high at 101.94 on Friday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid the increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.18% to 12.69, S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 1,978.34 Friday) as the geopolitical tensions are rising in the Middle East and Ukraine, while caution sets in ahead of Wednesday's release of U.S. 2Q GDP data and Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.04 versus 80.86 early Friday) on expectations of a strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report this Friday after upbeat U.S. jobless claims data for the week ended July 19. FX reaction last Friday to a stronger-than-expected 0.7% rise in U.S. June durable goods orders (versus +0.5% forecast) was muted as details were weaker than the headline figure.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish; five-day moving average is rising above 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102 and the second target at 102.25. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.15. The pivot point is at 100.95.

Resistance levels:

102

102.25

102.45

Support levels:

101.40

101.15

100.95

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hittinga near-six-month high at 0.9052 on Friday. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy, contagion from weak EUR, and franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross. The daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, the stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone; five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9055 and the second target at 0.9075. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8965. The pivot point is at 0.9025.

Resistance levels:

0.9055

0.9075

0.91



Support levels:

0.9

0.8965

0.8935

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a six-week low at 0.8537 on Friday. It is undermined by the continued impact from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Gov. Wheeler's comment last week that the Kiwi's strength is "unjustified and unsustainable". Besides, we should consider a pause in the RBNZ's rate-tightening cycle, the positive dollar sentiment, and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid the increasing investors' risk aversion. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD/USD interest differential. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, the stochastics stays suppressed in the oversold zone; five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8530. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8490. The pivot point stands at 0.8635. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8665 and the second target at 0.8710.

Resistance levels:

0.8620

0.8650

0.8675

Support levels:

0.85

0.8470

0.8450

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The movement is weighed by the increasing investors' risk aversion, the weak euro sentiment, and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, the stochastics stays suppressed in the oversold zone; five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.55. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 172.35. The pivot point stands at 173.35. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.75 and the second target at 174.10.

Resistance levels:

173.75

174.10

174.45

Support levels:

172.55

172.35

171.90

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between the level of 1.7003 and 1.6717. The resistance is set at the level of 1.7015. Consequently, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the price of 1.7015, because the spot of 1.7015 -1.7000 is going to act as strong resistance on July 28, 2014. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell below this level today with the first target of 1.6945 in order to test the weekly support 1 in H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the price 1.6945 coincides with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Moreover, if the trend succeeds to close below 1.6945, then the market will continue in the downtrend below the weekly support 1 towards the level of 1.6905. On the other hands, the stop loss should be placed above 1.7020 at the price of 1.7045.

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#USDX Technical analysis for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Dollar bulls continue to have the upper hand as the Dollar is getting strogner. The Dollar index has broken above 81 and is in a fully bullish mode. I expect the Dollar index to make small shallow pullbacks and create bullish flag patterns on the way to 81.75.

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud and support is at 80.94. The Dollar index is making higher highs and higher lows. The price is inside the upward sloping channel and I remain bullish on the Dollar. Bears will need more than a pullback in order to change the intermediate-term trend that is bullish. Bears will need to break below 80.45 to change the trend.

The daily chart confirms that the trend is bullish as the price is above the Ichimoku cloud. It is still inside the upward sloping channel. The Dollar index has broken its previous high at 81 from early June. We remain bullish targeting 81.75 and higher.

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Gold Technical analysis for July 28, 2014 Trend News

The Gold price made a strong bounce on Friday back above $1,300. This bounce does not change my bearish view as the price is still below important resistance and highs at $1,326. Critical support for bulls is found at $1,290. The Gold price has reached the short-term Ichimoku cloud and got rejected. This upward bounce from $1,287 is most probably complete and we should expect a pullback towards $1,295.

Support is found at $1,295 where the 61.8% retracement of the rise is. The price is below Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart and made a lower high than $1,326. These are bearish signs despite the short-term strength. Now, bears will need to break below $1,295 in order to be more possible of success for our bearish scenario. If however the price remains above $1,295-90 and breaks above $1,326, bulls will take the upper hand and the trend will change to bullish with $1,350-60 as our first target.

The Gold price has bounced strongly from the Ichimoku cloud support in the daily chart and has hit the Tenkan-sen resistance. The Tenkan-sen (red) line has broken below the Kijun-sen (blue) line which means a bearish sign if the price does not break above $1,316. My view remains bearish targeting towards $1,000 since I believe wave E of wave 4 has been completed.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 28/07/2014 09:40 CET

The recent alternate count that has been posted last week has been invalidated as the potential wave 4 has overlapped wave 1. This is the reason for the count to be revised and new labeling is now present.

There are two scenarios on the daily time frame chart: main and alternative. The main scenario still suggests, that the downside impulsive wave progression is still possible as long as the level of 1.0960 is not broken. The alternative count suggests a possibility that the ABC corrective structure in blue wave 4 to be completed. Now, a new impulsive wave to the upside has just started. Breakout above the key level would support this view.

On the lower time frame,s the outlook is not clean as two more intraday developments are possible. One suggests impulsive wave progression to the upside, which can be a part of a Zig-Zag correction. The other one suggests some form of an Irregular Flat correction. Nevertheless, the key level for this development is the Demand Breakthrough Zone between the levels of 1.0870 - 1.0892. Any breakout higher above this zone would possibly lead to the last swing high test and an invalidation of the purple bearish count.

Support/Resistance:

1.0960 - Swing High

1.0869 - WR1

1.0870 - 1.0892 - Demand Breakthrough Zone | Key Level |

1.0808 - 1.0827 - Intraday Supply Zone

1.0820 - Intraday Resistance

1.0789 - Weekly Pivot

1.0757 - WS1

1.0652 - Technical Support

1.0679 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Not very clear outlook at the moment so please refrain from entering a position on this pair.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from the minor support at the level of 1.3415. Now, it is approaching its support in order to test it. Moreover, it should be noted that the price of 1.3420 is representing the daily pivot point today. Equally important, the daily pivot point is coinciding with the ratio of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Consequently, it will probably start upside movement in this area and recover again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with the first target of 1.3503 (it should be noted that this level will form the weekly resistance 1) and continue towards 1.3551 to form the double top in the daily chart. On the other hand, in case of breaking of 1.3377, a good place for stop loss will be below 1.3350.

Notes :

• The major resistance will be set at the level of 1.3551.


• The minor support is going to be placed at 1.3415.


• We expect a new range of about 63 pips today.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5812

R2: 1.5780

R1: 1.5751

Curren spot: 1.5735

S1: 1.5712

S2: 1.5694

S3: 1.5663

Technical summary:

We are still looking for acceleration higher towards at least 1.5812 after the break above the base channel. However, we could easily see a continuation higher towards 261.8% extension of wave i at 1.6041. In the short term, we are looking for minor support at 1.5694 to protect the downside for a break above 1.5751 confirming the next part of the rally to 1.5812.

Trading recommendations:

We are long in EUR from 1.5525 and will move stop higher to 1.5650. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5694 with the same stop at 1.5650.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.06

R2: 137.00

R1: 13694

Current spot: 136.84

S1: 136.77

S2: 136.63

S1: 136.37

Technical summary:

As expected, red wave iv ended just below resistance at 137.34 (the high came in at 137.25). Now, we are in red wave v lower to 135.49, where we should see the bottom of wave iii. In the short term, we are looking for minor resistance at 137.00 to protect the upside for the next decline towards 136.00, which should be followed my a minor correction and then the final decline in red wave v to 135.49.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 137.20 and will place stop at 137.50. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell EUR near 137.00 with the same stop at 137.50.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 28, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 28.07/2014 08:30 CET

The market is still trading in the bearish zone between the levels of 137.50 and 136.23. Both main and alternate count has been labeled on the chart. Currently, traders should wait for one of the count to get invalidated. Breakout above the level of 137.33 invalidates the main count whereas breakout below the level of 136.36 invalidated the alternate one. Please notice, that the longer-term outlook is still bearish for this pair.

Support/Resistance:

136.23 - WS1

136.36 - Wave 1 Low

136.62 - Intraday Support

136.78 - Weekly Pivot

136.92 - Intraday Resistance

137.21 - WR1

137.32 - Intraday Resistance

137.50 - 137.63 - Key Level for Bears

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to open short orders from the level of 136.95, with SL above the level of 137.25 and TP at the level of 136.23 with a possible downside extension.

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