Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 1, 2014 Trend News

Today, some European markets are closed because of a Bank Holiday, but the US will release the economic data such as the Fed Chair Yellen Speech, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Natural Gas Storage, Total Vehicle Sales, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3936.

Strong Resistance:1.3927.

Original Resistance: 1.3914.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3901.

Target Inner Area: 1.3868.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3835.

Original Support: 1.3822.

Strong Support: 1.3809.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3800.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3822 and 1.3914. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3809 and by 1.3927 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3800 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3936 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3835 and at 1.3901, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3868.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com
For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief
My profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 1, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, today Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will release some economic data such as Fed Chair Yellen Speech, Unemployment Claims, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Natural Gas Storage, Total Vehicle Sales. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.69.

Resistance. 2: 102.49.

Resistance. 1: 102.29.

Support. 1: 102.04.

Support. 2: 101.84.

Support. 3: 101.63.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.63) and resistance 3 (102.69). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 01, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD

The pair has been in a downtrend at 1.1053 levels. We recommended yesterday buying at cmp and on dip. The same strategy we are following today. As of now, the pair opened today on a bullish note. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.0970 levels. On the down side, the level of 1.0943 is the support below this, 1.0919 and 1.0879 is the next support level. On the upside, the pair has resistance at 1.10 and 1.1020 levels. Once it crosses above 1.0980 levels, it will fly up to 1.1010, 1.1030 and 1.1050 levels. A day close above the 1.1050 levels, the bulls will be back on track completely.

For intraday purpose, the pair is facing resistance levels at 1.0979. Fresh buyers can buy only above this level for 1.0995, 1.1011 and 1.1020 levels. More upside is only above 1.1020 for 1.1040 and 1.1050 levels. The support comes at 1.0955 and 1.0943 levels.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold is trading lower around $1,289.00/90.00 levels after bouncing off the resistance line from $1,300.00/04.00 levels for now. The metal should see support coming in at $1,280.00/82.00 at the moment. However, a break of $1,270.00 would drag prices through $1,230.00/40 levels at least. Recommendations are to remain flat for now.

2. Interim support comes in at $1,270.00, followed by $1,230.00/40.00, $1,210.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,330.00, followed by $1,350.00/60.00, $1,388.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold needs to break above $1,330.00 to confirm that bulls are here to stay. Dips could be bought there after.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat OR aggressive setup is to remain 50% long, risk remains at $1,270.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY is bouncing off the new channel created just below the consolidation (Cone). The pair has again bounced off the support, just ahead of 141.00. Expectations from here is a re-test of 142.50 levels. A break higher, would want to again test 143.50/144.00 levels. Recommendations are to remain flat for now. Aggressive setup is to remain long, risk is at 141.00

2. Support is at 141.00, followed by 140.00, 138.00, 136.00 and lower while resistance is at 143.50/144.00 levels, followed by 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY needs to break out of the channel on either side to confirm the next larger move. Support comes in at 141.00 while resistance is at 142.50 within the range.

Trading recommendations:

Conservative setup is to remain flat, while aggressive setup is to remain long with stop at 141.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of gold for May 01, 2014 Trend News

Review-

ADP non-farm employment data

Private sector employment increased by 220,000 jobs from March to April, according to the April ADP National Employment Report. Companies hired more workers in April than at any time in the previous five months, signaling further progress in the labor market, a private payrolls report showed. The 220,000 increase in employment followed a revised 209,000 gain the prior month that was stronger than initially estimated. The Labor Department data may show on May 2 that the jobless rate would fall to 6.6 percent from 6.7 percent.

Technical view-

The metal has been making lower lows and lower highs for the last 3 consecutive days. As of now, the metal opened today's trading session on a neutral note. Today the same sell on rally strategy will work well. As we have recommended recently, the metal is still on a bearish note. On an intraday basis, if the metal trades above $1,291, traders can buy for small profit. Selling is not safe, as it trades above $1,291. One can buy for $1,293, $1,294.6, $1,297.60 and $1,300 levels. On the upper side, $1,301, $1,303 and $1,306.60 is the heavy resistance levels. On the down side, if the pair trades below $1,288, it will take immediate support at $1,285 levels. Once it breaks below this, the panic situation will take the metal towards $1,277, $1,273.30, $1,268.20 levels. Until the metal crosses above $1,306.60, the downside opens for $1,251.80 and $1,242.80 levels within strong support at $1,277 and $1,268.20 levels.

On a positional basis, if the metal trades and sustains above $1,300 levels, it will fly up to $1,306.60, above this, $1,310, $1,317 and $1,322 levels. A day close above $1,300, the technical buy will strengthen.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for 01 May, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair produces a doji yesterday. The pair is stalling around the 1.4860/80 mark for now. Until the 1.4905 level remains intact, bears should remain in control. High probability is for intermediary downswing to resume from current levels. Recommendations are to remain short, risk is at 1.4950/60.

2. Support is at 1.4640/50, followed by 1.4550, 1.4450, 1.4200 and lower while resistance is at 1.4950, followed by 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF should continue drifting towards 1.4700 levels from here on. A bullish bounce from there should be watched for reversing positions.

Trade recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4960, target is at 1.4700.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 01, 2014 Trend News

USD/JPY

Review- BOJ MEETING

The Bank of Japan policymakers yesterday lowered their growth expectations for the economy, as tepid data and a sales tax rise fueled fears about the strength of the nation’s recovery. Central bank policymakers will expect the world’s No. 3 economy to expand by 1.1 percent in the fiscal year to next March, down from an earlier 1.4 percent forecast, according to the report which gauges the median of members’ views. Inflation would come in at 1.3 percent over the same time period that was unchanged from a previous forecast.

Technical view-

The pair has been in an uptrend from 101.33 (double bottom). As of now, the pair opened today on a bullish note. For intraday prespective, we are recommending to buy this pair for targets at 102.40, cmp 102.21 levels. The pair has strong support at 101.97, keep a sl at 101.97, traders can go long at cmp. Sellers can enter shorts at 101.87 for targets at 101.50, 101.42 and 101.33.

On the upper side, the pair has strong resistance at 50 SMA 102.44 levels in the H4 chart. If it sustains above this, it will zoom up to 102.78 and 103 levels.

On the positional basis, until the pair trades below 104.11, a downside move is still open for 100.6 and 99.5 with intermediate ups and downs. In the weekly charts, the RSI is in consolidation stage. The pair has been trading at the lower side of the flag pattern for the last 4 weeks. A break below 101.33 will start falling for an immediate target at 100.6 levels. Week close below this, a major downfall will start. In next week's trading sessions, if the pair holds the 101.97 and 101.33, we will see a huge upside targeting 103.40 and 104.11 levels immediately.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 01, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

Review

Euro zone inflation rose in April, reducing chances the European Central Bank will act soon to ward off deflation, but the pace of price rising was below forecast and still within the ECB's "danger zone" of under 1 percent.

April's reading takes inflation back to where it was in February but it is below the 1.2 percent of April 2013. Still, the lack of a clear uptick in consumer prices will keep pressure on the ECB to act to stimulate the economy, possibly by lowering rates again, although it is not expected to do so at its next policy meeting on May 8.

Technical view-

The pair is trading at a lower lows and lower highs pattern. In yesterday's pull back, it was unable to cross the high of 1.3880. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.3869 levels as of now, the pair opened with a bullish note. It's not safe for fresh buyers to enter at this level. One can enter above 1.3880 for 1.3906, 1.3934 and 1.3950 levels. Safe traders can buy above 1.3906 for smaller targets. The major trend change will happen once the pair crosses the 1.40 levels. In the daily chart the RSI is indicating limited upside and more noise in coming sessions. Until the pair crosses the 1.3906 levels, the downside target at 1.36 is an open target with intermediate ups and downs.

Intraday-

The pair has support levels at 1.3850, 13835, 1.3827 and 1.38. It has been struggling to cross the 1.3880 levels. RSI favors sell side in today's session. Sell on rise is the best strategy.

On the upside, if the pair crosses the 1.3880, please be on the buy side, or if you are not intending to be on the buy side, don't sell. Huge short covering will take the pair towards 1.3906 levels in a fraction of minutes, it sustains above 1.3906, huge green ticks will take place aiming at 1.40/1.41 levels.

On the down side, for an intraday perspective, if the pair breaks below 1.3850 levels, the next major support comes at 1.38 and 1.3774 levels. I expect today or tomorrow the trend to change, I prefer selling on rally. Currently, the trend is between 1.3906-1.3774 levels.

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in higher range as markets await the FOMC announcement. GBP/JPY is weighed by the weak euro sentiment after softer-than-expected German inflation data and Japan's exports sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and positive risk sentiment. Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode, 5-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.80 and the second target at 171.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171.40. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 171. The pivot point is at 171.75.

Resistance levels:

172.80

173.15

173.65

Support levels:

171.40

171

170.50

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting its three-week high at 102.79 on Tuesday as markets await the Bank of Japan's interest rate announcement (BOJ is not expected to implement further monetary easing so soon after the April 1 consumption-tax increase), 12:30 GMT U.S. 1Q advance estimate real GDP and 18:00 GMT the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement. USD/JPY is underpinned by the yen-funded funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 1.86% to 13.71) as Wall Street rose overnight (S&P 500 closed 0.48% higher at 1,878.33) on upbeat earnings news, waning geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields and demand from the Japanese importers and investment trusts. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports sales and soft dollar sentiment on weaker-than-expected U.S. Conference Board April consumer confidence index of 82.3 (versus 83.0 forecast), smaller-than-expected 12.9% on-year increase in U.S. February S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (versus forecast +13.1%).

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is bullish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 101.90 and the second target at 101.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.75. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.90. The pivot point is at 102.65.

Resistance levels:

102.75

102.90

103.20

Support levels:

101.90

101.70

101.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in a lower range as markets await the FOMC announcement. USD/CHF is supported by the contagion from weak euro on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the soft dollar sentiment. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics both are turning bullish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8785. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8765. The pivot point stands at 0.8825. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8845 and the second target at 0.8860.

Resistance levels:

0.8845

0.8860

0.8895

Support levels:

0.8785

0.8765

0.8720

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

General Overview for 30/04/2014 16:50 CET

The trading range has been finally broken to the downside and first three impulsive waves have been completed. Currently, the market is in corrective cycle and there is one more wave to the downside missing to complete the progression. The key resistance is at the level of 1.0983 and this level provides a good opportunity to open a short trade.

Support/Resistance:

1.1031 - Weekly Pivot

1.1011 - WS1

1.0983 - Intraday Resistance

1.0979 - WS2

1.0954 - WS3

1.0949 - Intraday Support

1.0937 - 1.0941 - Demand Zone

Trading recommendations:

Short positions should be opened from the current price levels with SL above the level of 1.0988 and TP at the level of 1.0900.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate in a higher range after hitting its three-week low at 0.8514 on Tuesday as markets await the FOMC announcement. NZD/USD is supported by a 8.3% increase in New Zealand building consents issued in March, kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid positive risk appetite, kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross, soft dollar sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential. But the NZD/USD gains are tempered by the concerns over China's economy. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8615 and the second target at 0.8650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8475. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8430. The pivot point is at 0.8515.

Resistance levels:

0.8615

0.8650

0.8690

Support levels:

0.8475

0.843

0.84

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2014 Trend News

General Overview for 30/04/2014 16:30 CET

The top indicated yesterday has been confirmed and the price has made a five wave decline towards supply breakthrough zone. The wave (i) green has been finished and now the market is in a corrective cycle. Waves abc purple in wave (ii) green have been completed, but please notice that this still might be only the wave a green of a correction. Only a breakout below 140.97 - 141.06 zone will confirm that correction is finished.

Support/Resistance:

142.41 - WR2

142.35 - Intraday Resistance

142.14 - Intraday Support

141.89 - WR1

141.68 - Wave iv Low

141.45 - Weekly Pivot

140.97 - 141.06 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

140.93 - WS1

140.50 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Short positions opened yesterday should still be kept open with SL and TP levels without change.

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EUR/NZD analysis for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6088 on volume above the average. We can observe that our Fibonacci expansion level of 100% at the price of 1.6244 held successfully and that caused price to go downwards. According to the daily chart, we can observe that supply came into the market and buyers around the level of 1,6260 got exhausted. As we already wrote in the previous analysis, EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bearish trend, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 4H timeframe chart, we can observe that EUR/NZD found the ground around the price of 1.6105 and we got strong reaction from the buyers on the very high volume (buying climax). I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find potential end of bullish corrective phase and i got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6161 (on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6207.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6250

R2: 1.6284

R3: 1.6340

Support levels:

S1: 1.6138

S2 : 1.6104

S3: 1.6048

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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GOLD analysis for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,292.30 on volume below the average according to the daily chart. We are still waiting for a larger movement on higher volume. As we already posted in the previous analysis, we got submajor Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,307.00 and that level held successfully. We can observe supply on volume above the average according to the 1H timeframe, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. There is also an buying climax in the background at the price of 1,298.00. Support levels are previous swing lows at the price of 1,277.00 and 1,267.00. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,307.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1,315.00 (major Fibonacci retrace,emt 38.2%). My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,300.38

R2: 1,303.88

R3: 1,309.53

Support levels:

S1: 1,289.08

S2: 1,285.58

S3: 1,279.93

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after near term bullish corrective phase.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave (i) (coloured blue) of the bigger wave [v] (coloured green) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can observe that ascending movements from the 0.9223 level has found resistance at the 0.9295 level. We are going to look at this move as the end of the impulsive wave i of (i), and while the price remains above the 0.9223 low, we are going to look for more buying positions in this major pair. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 0.9368 (161.8% of wave [i]).

Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9182, (S2) 0.9204, (S1) 0.9236, (PP) 0.9258, (R1) 0.9290, (R2) 0.9312, (R3) 0.9344.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9280 with stop loss at 0.9223 take profit at 0.9368 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for for April 30, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
From the early start of this week, the USD/CAD pair has been trading downwards, impulsive wave [i] (coloured green) of the bigger wave C (coloured red) has been developing. In the 90-minutes chart of the pair above, we can see that the price has retraced towards the 50% of the previous upwards cycle from the 1.0853 level, just like we expected, but since the move looks impulsive, we are going to change and focus on the selling opportunities in the pair right now. While the price remains below 1.1053, we are going to watch for the pullback in the wave [ii] to enter a short position. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 1.0788 (161.8% of wave [i]).

Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0828, (S2) 1.0885, (S1) 1.0915, (PP) 1.0972, (R1) 1.1002, (R2) 1.1059, (R3) 1.1089.

Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1010 with stop loss at 1.1050 and take profit at 1.0788 are recommended.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

• The support of the USD/USD pair has already set at the price of 0.9220. In H4 chart, the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with the support on April 30, 2014. Moreover, it should be noted that the minor resistance will set at the 0.9360 price today. So, according to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between the resistance and the support. As a rule, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, we expect a range about 63 pips. Consequently, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.9220, then it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.9010 with the first target at 0.9303, then it will be continued straight towards 0.9360 (0.9360: 78,6% Fibonacci retracement levels).


• Notwithstanding, the stop loss should always be taken into account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, the best location to set your stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.9175.

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#USDX Technical analysis for April 30, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has pulled back up inside neutral territory. The Dollar index, despite showing many signs of weakness and a potential test of 79, has pulled back upwards inside the Ichimoku cloud. Support at 79.20-.30 was not tested as the price did not break below 79.50.

A break above short-term resistance at 79.85 will be good for bulls. This could be the start of an upward move towards 80.15. For this to happen, the price should not break below 79.50. This level could be used as a stop for long positions. Short positions will be favored if support fails.

The longer-term trend has not changed. The trend remains down. Price continues to trade below the Ichimoku cloud and below the blue downward sloping trend line. The Dollar index is testing now the trend line and the lower boundaries of the Ichimoku cloud. Strong resistance is found above 80 up until 80.60. A trend reversal could be confirmed if 80.60 is broken upwards and we see at least 2-day close above it. Critical long-term support and double bottom at 79.20 are important. Soon I expect the Dollar index to start a new move. Depending on if it breaks 79 or 80.60 we will know the direction.

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Gold technical analysis for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Gold price remains weak. The trend remains down. Price has managed to make an upward bounce but with no real progress as the price got rejected just below the downward sloping red trend line. As long as Gold price remains below this trend line, I prefer short positions.

The price is still stalling inside the Ichimoku cloud in the short-term chart as shown above. Support is found at $1,285-$1,280. Breaking below that level will push Gold price to $1,269 and will most probably break it and move towards $1,250.

The trend is down. A daily close below $1,275 will confirm we are heading towards $1,250 first and $1,200. Gold price could continue to trade sideways above the $1,275 blue support trend line and eventually re-test the Ichimoku cloud at $1,305. Long-term trend remains bearish. Short-term stop for bears is $1,300. Longer-term stop for bears is $1,391.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From today's H4 chart, yesterday's closing below the resistance level of 172.80 gave the price an opportunity for a bearish move after breaking the upward trend line. As shown here, currently the price is trying to continue its bearish move by breaking the support level of 172.00 which is tested now. In that case, we may get another opportunity for more sell signals, and it opens the way towards the level of 171.50 as the first target, and then the price should test the support level to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 172.00, it cancels the first scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (173.75), R2 (173.50), R1 (172.80), S1 (172.00), S2 (171.50), S3 (171.00).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6217

R2: 1.6196

R1: 1.6175

Current spot: 1.6120

S1: 1.6097

S2: 1.6057

S3: 1.6000

Technical summary:

It is still an open question whether we only have seen a correction from 1.5766 or we are at the beginning of an impulsive rally of this low. The big question is whether the overlapping structure from 1.5837 is a leading diagonal as blue wave i or it is an ending diagonal as red wave c. The complication from this two outcomes will be completely different. If it is an ending diagonal, we will see a new low below 1.5766 likely closer to 1.5566 to end the entire decline from 1.6787. However, if it is a leading diagonal, we should only see a move towards 1.6004 before the next impulsive rally higher sets in. This next rally will break above strong resistance at 1.6325 without much trouble for a continuation higher towards 1.6731. We prefer the bearish count slightly above the bullish count, only time will tell us which count is the correct one.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6200 was hit for a small profit. We will sell EUR at 1.6195 with a stop and revers at 1.6295.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD

The pair has been in a down trend from April 23 highs. It is facing strong resistance at 50-day SMA, and was unable to cross this level. It has been consolidating for the last 4 trading sessions. In yesterday's trading session, the pair was beaten very badly. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.0950 levels. As of now, the pair made a double bottom. We expect the pair will move higher if 1.0944 holds. The RSI in the hourly and daily charts, supporting my view.

On the upside, the pair will face resistance at 1.0958 levels. Up move will continue only if the pair crosses the 1.0958 (23.6fib level) for 1.0964, 1.0980, 1.0995 and 1.1018 levels. On the down side, the pair looks weak only below 1.0942 and it will drift up to 1.0919 and 1.0859 levels.

Buy with sl 1.0942.

Sell below 1.0940 for targets at 1.0920 and 1.0860 levels.

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Forecast and intraday analysis of gold for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Forecast-

Traders eye today's ADP non-farm employment data, the GDP and major event - the FOMC statement. The job creation data is likely to show that the U.S. growth is in a higher phase. The Federal Reserve is expected to affirm its own confidence in the health of the recovery by taking another step to scale down its easy-money strategy. The central bank is going to continue its tapering program by another $10 billion, to $45 billion a month. The advance report on the first quarter GDP growth is going to look bad because of the severe winter weather and slower inventory accumulation. Economists predict growth will drop to 1% from 2.6% in the fourth quarter.

Review-

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in March, declined slightly in April. The Index now stands at 82.3 (1985=100), down from 83.9 in March. The Present Situation Index decreased to 78.3 from 82.5, while the Expectations Index was virtually unchanged at 84.9 versus 84.8 in March. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting in the coming 2 days will divert traders' concentration towards long-term goal rather than a short one.

Technical view-

Forecast

Gold traded lower once again and reached the $1,268 mark; however, some fundamental issues made it little more volatile on charts. Once again gold is trading below $1,300 and as we can see on the charts, gold touched the broken trend line which was unable to hold prices up for the 3rd time in mid-April. The upside reversal we witness in gold in the last 2 times is making a pattern of lower highs and lower lows which indicate further weakness ahead. At the same time, a black cloud covers the candle just below the broken trade line, hinting for another downside move. Although the last 2 downside moves were little away from the full target around $1,262 or even lower, indicators are still trading in negative mode.

On a positional basis, until the metal crosses the $1,330.40, we are expecting much lower levels to $1,264.80, $1,262, $1,255, $1,246.80, $1,238, $1,231 and even $1,216.30-$1,213 levels.

Intraday levels-

For the last couple of hours, the metal is forming an lower lows and lower highs. In Asia's trading session the metal is trading at $1,295.50 levels. On the upside, the hourly bearish pattern will become invalid, once the metal crosses the $1,296.10 level, then it will move to $1,297.80, $1,301, $1,303.5 and $1,306.0. Solid buyers will be back only above $1,306.60 levels. On the upside, $1,306.60, and on the downside, $1,285 are the key levels. Until gold trades above $1,293, don't look at sell side.

Recommendations- cmp $1,294.70.

Risky traders- Sell below $1,293 for targets at $1,291.70, $1,286, and add more shorts below $1,285.

Safe traders- Sell below $1,291.70 for targets at $1,286, $1,282.70 and $1,277.

Buy with sl $1,293 for targets at $1,296, $1,297.80, $1,300, $1,303.50 and $1,306.60. Add more above $1,306.60.

NOTE- Panic situation is below $1,285.

Huge buying is above $1,306.60.

Adopt a strategy and trade safely.

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold is seen to be pulling back from the intermediary resistance line passing around $1,300.00 levels for now. A drop below $1,270.00 would drag prices towards $1,230.00/40.00. Meanwhile, a break higher should take it higher towards $1,330.00. At the moment, recommendations are to remain flat.

2. Support is seen at $1,270.00, followed by $1,230.00/40.00, $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,330.00, followed by $1,388.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold needs to push through $1,330.00 levels to confirm that bulls are to remain in control.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Or long 50%, with stop at $1,230.00/40.00 (aggressive setup).

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 141.80

R2: 141.69

R1: 141.47

Current Spot: 141.31

S1: 140.99

S2: 140.60

S3: 140.37

Technical summary:
Red wave ii ended exactly at the 70.7% corrective target at 142.47 and the decline from 142.47 does look impulsive. We will now be looking for minor resistance at 141.47 to protect the upside for a decline towards at least 140.90 and we are likely to see an extension lower towards 140.35 before the next minor consolidation will be seen. At this point on a break above 141.80 will frustrate the overall bearish count.

Trading recommendation:
Stay short EUR from 141.68 and move your stop lower to 142.50. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 141.47 with the same stop at 142.50.

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Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Forecast-

Today traders will eye CPI flash estimates. Consumer prices in Germany are expected to rise by 1.3% in April 2014 compared with April 2013. The Federal Statistical Office also reports that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.2% on March 2014 and most important event - the Federal Reserve statement. The negative waves will strike if the Fed changes in its policy.

Review-

GERMAN PRELIM CPI-

German inflation accelerated less than economists forecast in April, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to add stimulus in the euro area. Inflation, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, was 1.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent in March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had predicted a rate of 1.3 percent. The final results for April 2014 will be released on 14 May 2014.

SPAIN UNEMPLOYMENT-

Spain's unemployment rate has climbed to nearly 26 percent in the first quarter of 2014 as millions searched in vain for a job in a sluggish recovery from recession. The unemployment rate climbed to 25.93 percent in the first three months of 2014, up from 25.73 percent in the previous quarter, the National Statistics Institute said.

EU MONEY SUPPLY-

The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 1.3% in February 2014, compared with 1.2% in January 2014. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from December 2013 to February 2014 stood at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous period.

Technical view-

In the Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.3809 levels. The pair made a double top during yesterday's trading session at 1.3880 levels. It was exactly taking support at 50SMA on the daily chart at 1.3806. It is clear that the current trading pattern is framed between 1.3880-1.38/1.3780 levels. Today's trading perspective, we expect the pair will pull back towards 1.3823, 1.3830 and 1.3870, cmp 1.3810. On the up side, the pair will face strong resistance at 1.3815 and 1.3823 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.3780 levels, until it breaks this level, don't go short. Safe traders can short only below 1.3780. The range between 1.38-1.3780 is a support zone. Below 1.3780, it will drift immediately towards 1.3762, 1.3750, 1.3737, 1.37 and 1.3673 levels.

On a positional basis, if the pair crosses the double top at 1.3880, it will fly up to 1.3906, 1.3934, 1.3950 and 1.4. A day close above the 1.3880 will produce a bullish wave. On the down side, a day close below 1.38 a new bearish wave will take all the pair towards 1.3673, 1.3643 and even 1.3593 levels. For positional sellers, wait for a chance to sell at higher levels at 1.3880-1.3906. Until the pair trades below the 1.3906 levels, the bear power will work.

Intraday key levels- 1.3815> 1.3823> 1.3830> 1.3857> 1.3880

1.38< 1.3780< 1.3762< 1.3737< 1.37 < 1.3673

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:
1. The GBP/CHF pair raised through the 1.4880 levels yesterday before pulling back. The pair seems to be underway for a 3 wave correction towards sub 1.4600 levels before the larger trend continues. It is expected to drop at least towards 1.4700 levels from here on. Recommendations are to initiate short positions now at 1.4865/70 levels, risk remains 1.4950.

2.Support is at 1.4600, followed by 1.4550, 1.4450, 1.4350 and lower, while resistance is at 1.4950, followed by 1.5120.

3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF bears could remain in control till the 1.4700 levels from here on. A bullish bounce from there, so it should be considered to be bought.

Trading recommendations:
Initiate short positions (1.4865/70), stop at 1.4955, target 1.4700 at least.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Review-

PRELIM GDP -

Growth in the UK has accelerated to 0.8 percent in the first three months of 2014, but hasn’t recovered to pre-recession levels, according to the Office for National Statistics in London. GDP is still 0.6 percent below its peak level reached 6 years ago. Year-on-year growth was 3.1 percent, which also missed the 3.2 percent forecast, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released today. Britain's economy racked up its fastest growth in more than six years in early 2014.

Technical view-

In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.6824 levels. For today and the rest of the week, a trading pattern is very simple - sell on a rally. Bullish traders can wait patiently until it trades above 1.6875 levels. Traders can buy only above 1.6875 for targets at 1.69, 1.6911, 1.6950, 1.70 and 1.704 levels. On the down side, sellers can enter short positions only below 1.68 levels for immediate targets at 1.6778, 1.6766, 1.6763 levels. Once it breaks the 1.6763 levels, it will drift all the way towards 1.67, 1.6660 and 1.6681 levels. The panic situation will arise only after a break below 1.6681 (50SMA, daily) aiming at 1.66 and 1.6554 levels.

Until the pair crosses the 1.6830 levels, it looks weak. As of now, it made a high at 1.6829 levels and trading at 1.6825. On a positional basis, the pair has been trading in a range between 1.6763-1.6875. Breaking out either side will create a room for further trading setup. For intraday traders don't even think to buy below 1.6830.

Buy above 1.6875

Sell below 1.68

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has formed a fractal near to the 79.55 level. If the USDX manages to consolidate below the support level of 79.45, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.19. However, it is advisable to wait for the USDX to make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.11 or the support level of 79.19. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has been strengthened again over the bearish trend line that is near to the 79.50 level. If the USDX does make a breakout and the resistance level of 79.93, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.09. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a bearish rebound at current levels, it is likely to fall to the level of 79.55. The MACD indicator is positive.

H1 chart: The USDX is moving in a low range above the 200 SMA. However, the USDX could find resistance at the 200 SMA and fall to the support level of 79.64. If the USDX manages to consolidate below this level, is is seen to fall to the level of 79.39. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.39, and stop loss is at 79.90.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD is trying to consolidate its bullish bias, since the strength of the bulls is most noticeable above the support level of 1.6766. For now, expect this pair to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6851 to continue placing buy orders. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD remains above the support level of 1.6785. Now, if the pair manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6841, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6900. On the other hand, if it manages to consolidate below the support level of 1.6785, it is seen to fall to a bullish trend line, where the 200 SMA is located. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: This pair has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6800, where the 200 SMA is located, but it has found resistance at the point of control. If the pair manages to make a breakout in the support level of 1.6800, it is likely to fall to the level of 1.6750. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6850, take profit is at 1.6900, and stop loss is at 1.6800.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 30, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, German Unemployment Change, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, and Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will disclose its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, and Federal Funds Rate. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in low to medium volatility today.

Today's technical levels:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3881.

Strong Resistance:1.3872.

Original Resistance: 1.3859.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3846.

Target Inner Area: 1.3813.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3780.

Original Support: 1.3767.

Strong Support: 1.3754.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3745.

Description:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3767 and 1.3859. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3754 and by 1.3872 as strong resistance. In case EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3745 level today, it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3881 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3780 and SELL position at 1.3846. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3813.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur
Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 30, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Manufacturing PMI, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Average Cash Earnings y/y, Monetary Policy Statement, Housing Starts y/y, the BOJ Outlook Report, and the BOJ Press Conference is due. Meanwhile, the US will unveil its ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, and Federal Funds Rate. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility today.

Today's technical levels:

Resistance. 3: 103.04.

Resistance. 2: 102.85.

Resistance. 1: 102.63.

Support. 1: 102.40.

Support. 2: 102.19.

Support. 3: 101.99.

Description:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.99) and resistance 3 (103.04). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY is likely to rebound from the previous low by 10 to 20 pips. However, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,
Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 29, 2014 Trend News

The depicted chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20. The bears took advantage and pushed the pair towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels).

The USD/CAD pair returned to test the previous support zone around 1.0900 (50% Fibonacci level) which previously provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19.

Daily closure below 1.0920 took place briefly. However, it didn't take long time to get a bullish engulfing daily candlestick as a bullish reaction on the next day.

On the other hand, on the 4H chart, the price zone of 1.0990-1.1045 ( 38.2% Fibonacci of the most recent bearish swing ) was expected to provide a considerable resistance and it did.

This price zone corresponds to a recently established resistance zone as well.

The bullish pressure, which was being applied over this resistance zone, was invalidated by the current bearish spike that reached 1.0955.

Now it's obvious that the bulls can't maintain trending above the depicted uptrend line.

The previously suggested bearish position is now running in profits. Stop loss should be located just above 1.1060. The next TP level should be located at 1.0920.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 29, 2014 Trend News

On March 24, by breaking down 1.5175, the Double Top pattern could not only achieve its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but it also confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest support level). This exposed the price level of 1.4750 (61.8% Fibonacci).

As expected, trading above 1.4740 on a daily basis hindered further bearish progression giving some time for sideway consolidation for retesting of 1.4945 (50% Fibonacci).

The state of indecision around 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.4750) was ended. The bulls initiated a bullish spike off 1.4725 and finally they were able to push above the upper limit of the 4H congestion zone.

A bullish spike above 1.4950 (50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart) was executed today. However, the bulls failed to pursue the bullish breakout leading to its failure.

Price zone of 1.4950-1.5000 is a prominent intraday resistance. The next support to meet the pair is located around 1.4880 where the lower limit of the depicted triangle is located.

Price action at this key-level will determine the next destination of the pair, either to retest the recent high around 1.5025 or to pursue further bearish movement towards 1.4820-1.4800 ( next support zone ).

Overall, the daily chart suggests bearish tendency as long as the current daily candlestick maintains closure below 1.4940.

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