Friday 3 January 2014

#USDX analysis for January 3, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a small upward breakout. Short term resistance at 80.40 was broken yesterday. However the big sideways triangle needs to be corrected in order to capture the sideways move better. So prices still remain inside the big sideways triangle despite breaking above the short term resistance. Prices have now short term resistance at 80.90 and short term support at 79.95.



The price pattern from 81.50 is still corrective. We feel that the Dollar index has more chances of making a new upward move than new lows. The new shaped triangle as shown above, shows very well where the resistance levels are. Prices are now testing the upper boundaries. This is a good place to go short with 81 as stop. Bulls should wait for a breakout to go long again.



The daily chart of the Dollar index shows a promising breakout of the green downward sloping trend line resistance, however it needs to break above the blue MA at 80.70 and then above the red resistance area where it was previously rejected. Support that should hold for bulls is the 79.70 lows. Longer term target is 82.50. Concluding we remain neutral, however we favor long positions near 80 and short positions near 80.60 with 80.95 stop.


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Gold analysis for January 3, 2014 Trend News

In yesterday's analysis we noted that the bigger degree upward corrective move started. Prices opened with a gap up around the $1,225 price level. We mentioned yesterday that long positions should only be considered if the gap was closed. We were expecting a pull back down and then another move upwards. Prices moved exactly as expected. The gap was filled and prices are now making new higher highs as the short term trend changed up after breaking upwards the downward sloping trend channel.



The first short term target is $1,250 where the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1,270 to $1,180. Prices are expected to continue their upward bounce. This upward move is part of a corrective pattern upwards.



The daily chart continues to support our longer term bearish view. Trend remains down as prices remain below the purple downward sloping resistance trendline. The slope of our MA is still negative and the pattern of lower lows and lower highs continues to apply. Concluding, we will look for selling opportunities near $1,270.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 3, 2014 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance Levels:


R3: 1.6659


R2: 1.6623


R1: 1.6577


Current Spot: 1.6537


S1: 1.6517


S2: 1.6470


S3: 1.6443


Technical Summary:


We have tested important support at 1.6569 and have even broken it slightly. The important question now is whether we are ready to challenge the upside again or the downside pressure is to strong. A break above minor resistance at 1.6577 will be the first indication that a bottom could be in place, but to confirm the bottom a break above 1.6659 is needed. If however, the downside pressure continues to force prices down, it will take a break below 1.6443 to invalidate our bullish preferred count and instead make our alternate count (see below) the preferred count.


Trading Recommendation:


Our idea of selling EUR again at 1.6785 was correct, but we place the stop a little too close and was stopped out at 1.6820. We will buy EUR here at 1.6537 and place our stop+revers at 1.6440 in case our preferred count proves to be wrong.



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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 3, 2014 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance Levels:


R3: 143.63


R2: 143.25


R1: 142.81


Current Spot: 142.59


S1: 142.30


S2: 142.10


S3: 141.76


Technical Summary:


The powerful break below the base channel support line does support our count perfectly. Short-term we should see support at 142.30 protecting the downside for a red wave iv correction towards 143.26. The red wave iv correction will likely be a simple zig-zag correction as the red wave ii correction was a flat correction. Once red wave iv is done near 143.26, we will be looking for red wave v to go lower towards 140.98.


Trading Recommendation:


Take profits on the short EUR position from 145.10 here at 142.59 for a nice profit. Re-sell EUR at 143.15 with a stop at 144.50 and place take profit at 141.15.


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