Friday 4 January 2013

GBP/USD Bearish Outlook - For January 4, 2013 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

Having broken the 1.6135 fractal and approaching the psychological level of 1.60, the British pound continues falling from the key level of 1.63. The strongest support is at 1.5965. On the other hand, we note that the level of 1.60 was rejected this morning and the currency has bounced above it. It is likely that it continues up until the 1.6135 fractal, which now serves as resistance. At this level we recommend selling the pair. If you look at the chart below, the trend technical indicator (brown) had shown a bearish signal level 92 when the pair was trading at 1.6320. If you follow my analyses, you might remember that it was suggested to sell below that level. So now we have a lot of caution in this level as buyers and sellers dominate the market and the pair is likely to consolidate.



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EUR/USD Fractal 1.2983 - For January 4, 2013 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The euro fell quickly yesterday after it had closed below 1.31. We suggested that the close below the 1.3103 support would be a weekly sell signal. Support kept the pair above 1.32 and as a result there is no doubt that the support is broken. According to the indicator, the euro has 1.2983, daily fractal. This is a strong level. Now the rate is probably approaching it, but given that it is a bit oversold, probably there is an important rebound above this level. Therefore it is recommended to see this level and purchase above it.


Technical indicators are in middle zone, there is probably a rebound and then the downtrend continues. If the psychological level of 1.30 is broken and the pair closes below this level, it will be the beginning of a new bearish sequence until 1.27.



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Fundamental Analysis For January 04, 2013 Trend News

The dollar experienced a strong recovery on all fronts, in a movement that began in the late Thursday in New York. It happens mainly due to the FOMC minutes, alluding to his last meeting in December, showed a difference of opinion among members of the body for the purpose of extending and expanding the stimulus to the economy.


Several members were in favor of carrying 85 billion dollars buying assets only through the end of 2013, while others considered it to be exaggerated. The criteria, which also were not unanimous, were finally extended to the amount mentioned in the plan, prompting the falling of the dollar last year.


Moreover, and as concerns technical questions, dollar pairs had started the year with major gaps, which have been covered in the last hours. The exception is the USD/JPY pair, which is kept very up and no change of direction is observed at the moment. The Japanese government's policy of paying off is devaluing the yen quickly, at least at this early stage. But, do not forget to cover the gaps and one was under 84.


Another crisis is looming in the United States; similar to August 2011, it left the country to the brink of default procedure. Legally, the Government has taken all possible debt and raised that ceiling that there will be grounds for tough negotiations between politicians who play to measure their strength, but are weak to make decisions and solve problems.


Precisely, the variable that moves the currency market will have its first test during the American session on Friday, when at 8:30 of ET this data is published December non-farm jobs. As it is known, the movements of currencies at that time are often unpredictable and sudden, and much more, when turnover is low, as is it was in New York. The unemployment rate, which has gone down suspiciously in the months before the presidential elections, would be 7.7%, very high, but significantly better than in the worst moments of the crisis.


ISM Services index is also known at 10:00 and oil inventories at 11:00, completing an important day for the currency market. A market that started this 2013 is offering very good movements and, above all, very usable.


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Silver Tests The Recent Swing Lows At 29.40. Remains Bullish Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


There is no change in the bullish structure, expect the fact that the metal has tested recent swing lows at 29.40 level and is bouncing off. Trading at 29.70/75 levels at the moment is recommended to hold on to positions taken earlier and look to add fresh positions now. Intermediary support is at 28.50 while strong support is at 27.50 and below. Resistance is fixed at 32.50, 33.65 and 34.40, and 35.10/20 respectively. Looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, add further longs at current levels, stop is at 29.00. Target is open.


Good Luck!


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Gold Retraces The Recent Rally. Look To Buy Again Now (1,645/50) Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The overall structure still remains constructive for bulls. Again looking into it, prices have bounced off the longer-term uptrend line, past resistance turned support and the 0.618 Fibonacci support at 1,630/35 levels. The recent fall from 1,690/95 levels can be defined as wave 2 as depicted here. Wave 1 was the upswing from 1,632 to 1,694 levels earlier. A powerful wave 3 should be underway now from around 1,645.00 level; which could bring prices comfortable above 1,720/25 levels as depicted here. Resistance is lined up from 1,700.00 level, followed by 1,720/23 and 1,750/53 respectively. Immediate support is at 1,630.00, followed by 1,600/10. Looking higher from here.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions taken earlier, look to add at current levels (1,650/51), stop is at 1,610/20, and target remains open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Upside Still Has Room Left. 113.00 Is Immediate Support Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Prices bounced off from 113.50/60 levels yesterday, well above 113.00 level which is immediate support for now. Further support levels are 111.00, 106.00 and lower, as depicted here. Resistance still is not before the Fibonacci level of 117.80/90 and further up to 120.00. It is recommended to hold long positions taken earlier, also look to add further during intraday dips. Please note that 111.00 level is also past resistance turned support now, hence it remains a possibility that correction extends further. Looking higher for now.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions, build further at current levels (114.40). Stop is at 113.00 or breakeven for positions taken earlier. Target is at 117.80/90.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Ready For The Next Downswing. 1.4950/60 Is Resistance Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The structure remains favorable for bears at the moment. Prices have run through 0.618 Fibonacci resistance of recent downswing as depicted here and are stalling at the moment. Resistance is fixed at 1.5050/60, 1.5150 and higher; while Daily support is at 1.4670 (intermediary), followed by 1.4600 and 1.4500. It is recommended to remain short and also look to built further short positions around current levels (1.4913). Looking lower from here on.


TradIng Recommendations:


Remain short on positions taken earlier. Look to add further. Stop is at 1.5. Target is at 1.4600 and lower.


Good Luck!


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